Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Houston Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Houston Open

Houston Open Fantasy Preview

Fans of classic PGA TOUR golf will need to get their fix at this week’s event, the Houston Open, as the players are off on something of a magical mystery tour in the coming month.

It’s off on the Asian Swing next week for the CJ Cup followed by our first look at the ZOZO Championship in Japan. And then we’re off to a new destination for the PGA TOUR in readiness for the Bermuda Championship.

Then it’s China and Mexico, before we return to US soil for the RSM Classic on November 21.

This edition of the Houston Open represents both a first and a last in its fine history. This is the first time it will be played in the fall, shifting from its normal springtime slot in the schedule, but also the last time – for now at least – that the Golf Club of Houston will take on hosting duties, with a switch to Memorial Park slated for next year.

Sadly, not many of the OWGR top 50 are taking the opportunity to visit this unique stretch of Texas for one final time.
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Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week Kevin Na lit up an event that most thought Koepka would run away with. It was as much of a surprise to us as everyone else in the golf world when our top guy Brooks didn’t even make the weekend.   

Well, you certainly can’t win them all, but we can put ourselves in the position to win three events in the fall series with some focused picks this week.

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The Houston Open Field

Now that the new season is well underway, it’s a bit of a disappointment to see the Houston Open field below the level we might expect.

Henrik Stenson is the main highlight, perhaps, and he is one of three major champions in the field alongside Jimmy Walker and Jason Dufner.

There’s a strong Texan connection as you might expect, and leading the way will be University of North Texas graduate and Sanderson Farms Championship winner Sebastian Munoz. There will be a new name to many on the leaderboard in the appropriately-named Cole Hammer, who is ranked second in the world amateur standings and who is a current Texas Longhorn.

Any number of former Houston Open champions – Russell Henley, Matt Jones, Jim Herman, D.A. Points, Johnson Wagner and Hunter Mahan – will be looking to double up.

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This Week’s Course Preview

Traditionally, the Houston Open has been held a week prior to The Masters, in the sense that the Bermuda greens at the GC of Houston can be landscaped to run super-fast like those at Augusta.

Quite whether that idea will remain now that this event has shifted to the fall remains to be seen, although clearly this is a layout where you have to putt well to thrive.

This 7,441 yard, Par 72 layout was designed by Rees Jones with assistance from former Tour pro David Toms. And there’s not anything particularly unique to point out, other than the wide fairways and less-than-penal rough making this an easy enough place to play your golf – the last two champions have been crowned at -20 and -19, as if to illustrate the point.

Water is on play on nine of the holes – particularly the eighteenth, where it flanks the left side of the fairway and the green, but realistically there is very little to trouble the players here.

Indeed, this course’s chief defense is the wind, which can whip up on some of the more exposed holes. According to the latest forecast, there could be more strong breezes for the players to get to grips with this week.

Any potential champions will also need to be wary of the closing four holes, each of which is difficult in its own right. Fifteen is a 609-yard Par 5 with narrow landing areas for both tee shot and first approach shot, while the Par 3 sixteenth features an exposed near 200-yard approach into a sloping green.

The seventeenth green sits on top of a mound, with steep run-off areas carrying any errant approaches into two large bunkers. And eighteen had danger lurking all down the left side, while trees and sand await those who play it safe too far right.

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Weather Forecast for Humble, TX

The watchword in all correspondence about the Houston Open will be all about the wind this week.

It’s hard to get a completely accurate read, with different forecasts suggesting different things, but the consensus seems to be that the wind speeds will reach up to 13 mph on Friday, and hover between 16-18 km/h for the rest of the tournament.

Otherwise, the forecast is pretty good, with almost wall-to-wall sunshine only possibly broken by a thunderstorm or two on Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will reach up to 88°F, with around 77°F likely for the weekend.

Last Year’s Results from the Houston Open

You have to go back to April 2018 for the last edition of the Houston Open, and there you will find Ian Poulter a very grateful champion indeed having survived a play-off with Beau Hossler.

The young Californian had leapt into a halfway lead largely on the back of an excellent opening round of 65, and that gave him a one-shot cushion over a large chasing pack that included Poulter, who fired a 64 on the Friday.

The weekend saw more big moves made as both Poulter and Hossler went low to take the 54-hole lead at -14 and give themselves a decent cushion heading into Sunday’s final grouping.

Poulter birdied four of the opening eight holes to open up a commanding lead, before a bogey at nine seemed to completely derail his momentum.

Hossler roared back with four straight birdies from 12-15, and heading into the final hole the young American held a one-shot lead.

But the Englishman did what we does best: clutch golf when the pressure is really on. He birdied the tough eighteenth, had a little fist pump and carried that into the first play-off hole where he watched on as Hossler’s drive met a watery end.

Poulter had won, and ultimately secured his place on the European Ryder Cup team based on this effort.

Highlights | Round 4 | Houston Open

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for Houston Open this Week

• DraftKings: PGA TOUR $250K Best Ball [$50K to 1st]: This is certainly where the party is at this week. This game is a (max) 36,764-player game with a total prize purse of $250,000 and pays out the top 8,700 finishing positions. Get this, first place wins a cool $50,000.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Houston Open

There’s not a lot to write about here, especially as all sorts of players have triumphed at the GC of Houston: Poulter, Russell Henley, Jim Herman and JB Holmes don’t share a great deal in common.

But one thing that we can point out is that driving distance is not a factor here, and indeed many will be taking irons off the tee to set up the perfect approach angles.

Take a look at last year’s stats: Poulter, Grillo, Ryder, Henley, Every, Ancer and Kuchar all finished inside the top-10 despite averaging less than 290 yards off the tee – an unusual sight indeed, and proof positive that bombers don’t necessarily thrive in Houston.

In an ideal world we want our players to be putting from as close to the hole as possible. That’s obvious, of course, but with these Bermuda surfaces running so fast historically there will be some who truly flounder with the flat stick. Proximity could be another useful stat in the armory this week.

And of course, making a few clutch putts also helps! Both Poulter and Hossler are handy with the flat stick, while in 2017 the leaderboard was a who’s who of who putted well: Henley won while ranking first for Putting Average, while a number of other players in the top-10 also putted the lights out.

So, we’re not looking for one stat over another: just a strong all-round performance in all departments of the game.

We’re also looking for strong wind players, with a number who have won or finished runner up in Houston showing up well at similarly breezy layouts such as Pebble Beach and Waialae, home of the Sony Open.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Houston Open

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Houston Open

Top Tier Pick #1: 

Henrik Stenson (Odds: 11/1, FPPG: 66.50, GPFP: 53.50, Salary: $11,400)

A regular at the Golf Club of Houston, Henrik Stenson has a decent enough record here having finished T2 in 2016 and T6 in the last renewal of March 2018.

That’s a handy angle in for the Swede, who has been in excellent form in recent months even if he has been working off a reduced schedule. T4 at the Scottish Open, T20 at the British Open, T3 at the Scandinavian Invitational, T17 at the BMW PGA Championship….this is all good stuff heading into a weak-field event.

A proven performer in the wind, Stenson’s use of anything but the driver off the tee won’t be punished this week, and in ranking second here last year for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green it was confirmed that this is a course that suits his proven-winner’s eye.

Key Stats (2018-19):

• Strokes Gained: Approach – 1st
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 60th
• SG: Putting – 71st

Mid-Tier Pick #1:  

Russell Henley (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 73.33, GPFP: 76.72, Salary: $10,100)

In a week where there is very little to work with, Russell Henley’s incredible form at the Golf Club of Houston simply cannot be overlooked.

A winner here in 2017, the 30-year-old’s overall formline at this track reads 8-1-5-4-7, so if you needed any further evidence that this track suits his eye then that is it!

His current form does not read all that way, but statistically at least he has been in excellent form. Gaining strokes on the field on approach in Nevada, Henley is trending very nicely for a range of ball-striking metrics as well.

A winner in the wind, Henley should be right in among it this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 7th
• Greens in Regulation – 16th
• SG: Approach – 29th

Mid-Tier Pick #2: 

Lanto Griffin (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 87.00, GPFP: 69.60, Salary: $8,000)

It has been an ultra-consistent start to the new season for Lanto Griffin, who has banked top-20s in each of his three starts of the new campaign.

And he was sitting menacingly in T6 at the halfway stage having served up something of a short game masterclass.

Griffin delivered in the South in the Sanderson Farms Championship, and he has something of a history in performing well in this part of the world: he won in Alabama on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, and he was also third in the Dormie Network Classic in Texas.

Form and comfort usually go hand-in-hand for another strong showing.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 7th
• SG: Putting – 12th
• Greens in Regulation – 38th

Mid-Tier Pick #3: 

Matt Jones (Odds: 11/1, FPPG: 66.50, GPFP: 53.50, Salary: $11,400)

A winner here in 2014, Matt Jones arrives back in Houston with renewed form under his belt.

A pair of 66s and 68s led him to T10 at the Greenbrier Classic, and he also went well at the Shriners too with an excellent display of both approach play and putting.

These hot, dry and windy assignments are perfect for Australians, who must feel right at home, and given his recent burst of form there’s no reason why Jones can’t perform well again at a layout he clearly enjoys.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 6th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 9th
• SG: Approach – 14th

Low-Tier Pick: 

Aaron Baddeley (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 67.00, GPFP: 86.43, Salary: $9,100)

As for Matt Jones, read Aaron Baddeley.

The Australian looks these dry and windy tests, where his short game excellence really comes to the fore.

There was a time when Baddeley was one of the best putters on the planet, and his stats with the flat stick so far this season back up his mastery of the dark art.

These conditions suit him perfectly, and it’s little wonder he has a T15 on his resumé here in 2017. Something similar, from a low-tier pick, would be ideal.

Key Stats (2018/19):

• SG: Around-the-Green – 4th
• SG: Putting – 6th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 51st

Sleeper Pick for the Houston Open

Russell Knox (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 61.25, GPFP: 79.63, Salary: $9,200)

Having grown up in Inverness in Scotland and now residing in Florida, wind-heavy golf is not something that holds any fear for Russell Knox.

That much was in evidence in his penultimate start at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in his native land, where he finished T15.

As somebody that has enjoyed success on the Links, the hard and dry conditions at the Golf Club of Houston will suit, and the major flaw in Knox’s game – his below-average driving distance – is mitigated given that bombs are not needed here.

A decent enough showing at the Shriners shows that the Scot’s game is trending upwards.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 10th
• Greens in Regulation – 27th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 30th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Houston Open

Matt Every (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 46.88, GPFP: 51.57, Salary: $7,300)

Every once in a while, if you’ll pardon the pun, Matt Every turns up and delivers a salary-busting performance.

Sometimes it will come out of the blue, and other times he will hint at what is to come. And for us, his effort at the Shriners – while not blistering on paper – offered a hint of what he might bring to Houston.

His approach play and short game was in fine working order, and for a player who finished T8 the last time the Houston Open was held that is noteworthy indeed.

Perennially overlooked due to his unpredictable nature, Every can deliver a huge win to those who give him a try when the time is right.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 8th
• Birdie Average – 9th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 38th

This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)

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