Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The American Express
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the American Express
The American Express Fantasy Preview
Having pledged to donate $500 for every birdie he made at the Sony Open to the Australian bushfire crisis, Cameron Smith today finds himself over $10,000 light…
…but he is also in possession of a magnificent new trophy, stacks in prize money and – finally – a solo strokeplay title on the PGA TOUR to his name.
The Australian has spoken emotionally of his anguish at the fires in his homeland that have taken lives, destroyed homes and wiped out many species of wildlife, and his win in Hawaii is proof that sometimes the most dangerous players are those who have somebody or something else to play for – think the ‘nappy factor’ or Cameron Champ’s win at the Safeway Open which he dedicated to his terminally ill grandfather.
Of course, the conditions helped too – a gale-force wind blew at Waialae, meaning recovery game skills came to the fore, and that’s an area in which Smith really thrives.
After the two-week jaunt to Hawaii it’s back to the US mainland and a trip to La Quinta in the heart of California for the renamed The American Express.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week’s shining stars included Lanto Griffin (T7) and Greame McDowell (T4).
With a little love from Kisner (Tuesday Sleeper report), we were able to have a few solid finishes despite losing Reed and Kuchar to the cut line.
The American Express Field
There’s a hefty paycheck available on the European Tour this week which has tempted a number of big hitters over to the Middle East, so The American Express field has a very much early season feel to it.
British Open champion Francesco Molinari and Rickie Fowler are arguably the biggest names teeing it up in La Quinta, and they will be joined by Tony Finau, Paul Casey and Kevin Na.
Defending champion Adam Long makes the trip, as does the in-form Kevin Kisner, while Brendon Todd will be looking for his third victory in as many months.
Sam Saunders, grandson of five-time winner of this event Arnold Palmer, has turned down his place in the Korn Ferry Tour’s Bahamas jaunt to try and emulate his grandfather.
This Week’s Course Preview
This is one of those weeks where three courses are used from Thursday-Saturday, before the cut-makers duke it out for one last time on Sunday.
In order of easiest to most difficult, the trio of layouts are La Quinta Country Club, the PGA West Tournament Course and the PGA West Stadium Course, which also hosts the final round.
La Quinta is an absolute breeze of a golf course, and the scene of a round of 59 from Adam Hadwin a couple of years ago. Measuring 7,060 yards for its Par 72, this short track features generous fairways and large greens – anybody and everybody can take it apart when the going is good.
The Tournament course is a piece of real estate designed by Jack Nicklaus, and the man himself has described it as a ‘true ball striker’s test’. It’s arguably a bit more straightforward than that, in fairness, with generous width off the tee, although the greens are on the small side and require accurate approaches – hence Nicklaus’ view.
The final word goes to the Stadium Course, where there will be some poignant golf played given that its designer, Pete Dye, sadly passed away recently.
This was one of his macabre creations that once upon a time the professionals petitioned to have taken off the Tour! It’s been made slightly easier since then – this is a pro-am event after all, but there are still plenty of difficulties to overcome including well-protected greens, deep bunkers and water in play on nine holes.
Weather Forecast for La Quinta, CA
For those who were buffeted by the winds in Hawaii last week, the good news is that we’re expecting a much calmer time of things in California.
Temperatures are warm without being overbearing – 66-75°F is the expected range, with sunny spells throughout.
And despite being in the desert, the wind speeds are on the mild side with a breeze of 4-8 mph expected.
Last Year’s Results for the American Express
From ball one it looked like Phil Mickelson, who will be the official tournament host this week, was going to get the win on home soil.
Leftie, a two-time winner of the event, opened up with a fantastic round of 60 at La Quinta, and he did not relinquish the lead until a wild Sunday on the Stadium Course.
A mixed bag of a front nine saw Mickelson -1 on the day, but that opened the door for Adam Hadwin – something of a tournament specialist – to get stuck in with a flawless front nine of -5.
But the Canadian stuttered on the way home, Phil could not get any momentum going, and in the end it was left to Adam Long – with a closing 65 featuring a nerveless 160-yard iron in to the flag on the 72nd hole – to complete a maiden PGA TOUR victory.
Adam Long Highlights | Round 4 | Desert Classic 2019
No Description
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for American Express this Week
We’re getting into the meat of the new year now, and the DFS are upping their ante both in the size and scale of their slates. Expect a nice bump in the cash prizes this week!
- PGA $325k Drive the Green: There’s $100k to the winner in this one, and you won’t get many ways to play for such a sum for just a $5 entry doing something you enjoy. There’s consolation prizes too – the top-50 players earn a minimum of $50.
- PGA $225k Club Twirl: You can increase your chances here with just 5,963 teams entered into a contest where the champion will walk away with $50,000. And there’s plenty of overall cash to be won, with the top 417 players bagging $100 at least.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the American Express
These are the sorts of events least loved by the DFS community.
We have three different courses on the rotation, which gives rise to the possibility of a draw bias straight off the bat, while the presence of celebrities and club hackers in the field can be off-putting to the more serious souls in the game.
The wide open nature of the three courses also eradicates much of our normal shortlisting procedure for potential champions too: ultimately, whoever hits their approaches closest, or who has an unbelievable four days with the putter, will win.
That was certainly the case 12 months ago, when Adam Long found just 70% of these receptive greens in regulation but ranked first for Putting Average, which tells its own tale.
With super-low scores to be had, this is the kind of event where birdie-streak machines can also make serious inroads at La Quinta in particular.
Some care and attention is required on the Stadium Course, where Pete Dye was at his most maniacal, but even then there are scorable holes and the chance to post low numbers in agreeable conditions – which we expect them to be this week.
So, we’re looking for light-hearted souls who won’t mind the pro-am festivities, and those who feel at home in California and are willing to give it their all across the four days.
Current form? Don’t worry about it. Adam Long won from absolutely nowhere 12 months ago.
Course form? No worries! Long hadn’t played here in seven years, Rahm had a single T34 finish to his name while Hudson Swafford had no top-20 to his name in five previous visits.
Clues….we haven’t got many!
[membership level=”0″]
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the American Express
You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.
Already a member? Sign in Here.
[/membership]
[membership level=”1,2,3″]
Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the American Express
Top Tier Pick:
Rickie Fowler (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 71.5, GPFP: 80.80 Salary: $11,500)
Gulp! There is an intake of breath when forking out this kind of salary on Rickie Fowler, a player with the ability to impress or irritate in equal measure.
But the whole pro-am scene should appeal to this happy-go-lucky guy, who is comfortable on Bermuda greens and who has desert success to his name, winning the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship and the Phoenix Open.
And Fowler has thrived on Pete Dye tracks too, winning at TPC Sawgrass in the PLAYERS Championship.
There’s bits and bobs of form in the tank, with T5 at the Tournament of Champions in his last start, and we’re taken back to 2018 in this event, when Jon Rahm – the best player in the field – proved it by hoisting the trophy.
In this field, you could argue that Fowler enjoys a similarly lofty position.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 75-100 yards – 1st
- SG: Putting – 13th
- Scoring Average – 15th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Alex Noren (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 74.0, GPFP:59.20 Salary: $8,400)
While not exactly the greatest predictor of success, Alex Noren has ranked inside the top-20 for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in his last pair of outings, and so he is a warm-up with the putter away from profiting further.
Still, T10 at the RSM Classic in his penultimate start was a sighter, and given that the Swede is a ten-time winner worldwide we can have no doubt about his credentials in an event where a host of unfamiliar names may find themselves thrust into contention at the top of the leaderboard.
Noren lost in a playoff in the Farmers Insurance Open on the California Swing back in 2018, so there is some level of comfort on the west coast.
Key Stats:
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 2d
- Scoring Average – 4th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Vaughn Taylor (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 73.1, GPFP: 58.51 Salary: $7,900)
There was more excellent golf from Vaughn Taylor in Hawaii last time out.
That T12 return at the Sony Open followed T10 at the RSM Classic and an agonizing T2 in the Mayakoba, so this is a player gaining strokes in all aspects of the game and who is complete control of his swing right now.
With a trio of top-10s in this event, this stretch of California also provokes plenty of happy memories for a player who won the Renoe-Tahoe Open twice (also in this state) and the pro-am challenge of the AT&T Pebble Beach.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 42nd
- SG: Putting – 54th
- Approaches from 100-125 yards – 58th
Mid-Tier Pick #3:
Brendan Steele (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 67.1, GPFP: 82.58 Salary: $7,500)
The Californian heads to home soil after finding a return to form in Hawaii that was perhaps not as surprising as you might think.
Steele closed out with a 66 at the Mayakoba Classic and missed the cut at the RSM Classic but at -3, so there was an edging back to his best going on in the background.
He has won twice at the Safeway Open just played a short stop away in Napa Valley, and this quality ball-striker could another Cali title to his collection if a recent improvement with the flatstick continues.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 22nd
- Total Driving – 23rd
- SG: Approach – 62nd
Low-Tier Pick:
Danny Lee (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 76.3, GPFP: 88.54 Salary: $7,300)
The New Zealander has long impressed as a classy, if inconsistent, operator, and he seems to produce his best golf on Pete Dye layouts.
A T7 finisher at TPC Sawgrass, Lee also has a third place at TPC River Highlands to his name. And while not a Dye layout, the world number 92 also has a solo fourth in the desert at the Phoenix Open.
A fantastic solo second at the CJ Cup, where he chased Justin Thomas home with great credit, sets Lee’s 2020 up nicely. He followed up with a top-10 at the ZOZO Championship, and even played well at the Mayakoba as well.
Lee could go even better here.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 24th
- Total Driving – 48th
- SG: Approach – 51st
Sleeper Pick for the American Express
Cameron Tringale (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 77.2, GPFP: 91.06 Salary: $7,100)
He appears to be something of a forgotten man here, does Cameron Tringale, at a throwaway price despite his decent form.
If we go all the way back to the Canadian Open, Tringale has played in 14 events and cashed a top-20 finish in eight of those.
He has played well at Pete Dye real estate in the past, and turned out well in the desert at the Shriners of 2015 when he was T2.
Sure, it’s not a huge amount to go on, but Tringale has been trending in the right direction for a while now.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 24th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 44th
- Scoring Average – 46th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the American Express
Cameron Davis (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 38.7, GPFP: 30.95 Salary: $6,900)
We’ve already written about the motivation Cameron Smith found from the troubles in his home country, and maybe his namesake Davis has also been similarly inspired.
He’s got some of the weapons we’re looking for this week: he whacks it a long way off the tee, for example, which will allow him to approach with short iron or wedge in hand, and there’s some form in the tank.
He got some good vibes back at the Australian PGA Championship, finishing T3, and followed up with a T9 effort at the Sony Open.
The lack of punishment off the tee will suit Davis down to the ground, and maybe his improved confidence will allow him to covert the birdie opportunities he creates.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 29th
- Approaches from 150-175 yards – 67th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 90th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
[/membership]
Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2019-2020)
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for American Express with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist’s New GTS Driver Lineup Spotted on Tour
Streamsong Unveils “Bone Valley”: A Bold New Name and Logo for Its Highly Anticipated Fifth Course
Titleist Introduces Limited-Edition Oil Can Finish on T-Series Irons
FIRST LOOK: Titleist’s New GTS Driver Lineup Spotted on Tour
6 Big Changes Coming to the PGA TOUR
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
We Played This Old Golf Course Where Thomas Edison Was A Member
Are You MEASURING Your Golf Swing Correctly? (This Can Help)
Zach Johnson Explains Why He Didn’t Pick Bryson DeChambeau for the Ryder Cup
Justin Thomas FIRES Coach before Ryder Cup…Who’s Next?
