Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2020 U.S. Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the U.S. Open
The U.S. Open Fantasy Preview
You invest considerable time and effort into building an analytical model that you think gives you an edge in daily fantasy, and then along comes a guy who hasn’t won for eleven years to spoil it all.
Stewart Cink’s triumph at the Safeway Open – his first since downing Tom Watson in the British Open of 2009 – came amid a myriad of ‘inspirational’ factors that you simply cannot build into your pre-tournament analysis. He had one of his sons caddying for him, it was his other son’s birthday and his wife, who has survived a major cancer scare, was at his side cheering on the family.
Those loved ones can’t hit the ball in the whole for you, and so Cink himself still deserves a huge amount of credit, but even so it’s hard to put a price on the difference that emotion-led motivators can have on sporting performance.
From west coast to the east….the PGA TOUR travels across the country for the all-together more serious U.S. Open this week.
That’s not to underscore the Safeway Open by any means, but the long overdue major – just the second of 2020 to date – has long been anticipated. That is, perhaps, until the players see what Winged Foot Golf Club has in store for them!
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
The Safeway Open was the first official event of the new season and therefore starts a new fantasy picks cycle. Last week we ran with Mickelson who disappointed us on the weekend with back-to- back 70s.
His T44 was a major disappointment but that Stewart Cink seemingly came out of nowhere? Cink hasn’t won on Tour since 2009 so he was well under everyone’s radar.
Now let’s shift our focus to Winged Foot for the second Major of the year!
The U.S. Open 2020 Field
Only the very best need apply this week in a stacked field which features maybe a dozen or more genuine title contenders.
Dustin Johnson takes headline billing, and why not? The FedEx Cup champion is hitting the ball beautifully at the moment.
But the likes new father Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele, who essentially ‘won’ the TOUR Championship if it was a standard strokeplay event, will all have something to say about that.
And that only scratches the surface of a tournament which also features Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed, Patrick Cantlay, Tiger Woods and just too many players to mention.
Eight of the last ten U.S. Open champions are present and correct, so will we crown a new winner of this illustrious event or will a repeat champ be crowned on Sunday?
This Week’s Course Preview
#1 – Genesis (Par 4, 451 yards) – A right-to-leg dogleg is the least of the players’ worries here, with a green that slopes dramatically from back to front. Jack Nicklaus once four-putted here, so ensuring approaches are hit to the right segment of the green is key.
#2 – Elm (Par 4, 484 yards) – A mammoth Par 4, Elm is named after the huge 100ft tree that guards the left-hand side of the green. Miss behind the tree and rescue chips could be blocked out.
#3 – Pinnacle (Par 3, 248 yards) – Do not be surprised to see players laying up on this hole – sounds crazy, but that’s what Billy Casper did in 1959 and he gained two strokes on the field. The multi-layered green is protected by some treacherous sand.
#4 – Sound View (Par 4, 467 yards) – Another gentle right-to-left dogleg, there’s a bunker to the side of the fairway that can be carried by those hitting 300+ yards. One of the rare ‘easier’ holes at Winged Foot.
#5 – Long Lane (Par 4, 502 yards) – The length says it all, and while there is minimal anger to be found here some players will be left with a 200 yard approach into a green that you really don’t want to be missing.
#6 – El (Par 4, 321 yards) – Now then….are you going to try and take on the green? The intermediate rough here is among the thickest on the course, so the words risk and reward spring to mind.
#7 – Babe in the Woods (Par 3, 162 yards) – Don’t miss the green – that’s the general theme on this Par 3. To give you an idea of the slope, the bunkers protecting the front of the surface are situated some 7 feet below the typical pin position.
#8 – Arena (Par 4, 490 yards) – A left-to-right dogleg, a bunker juts out on the left-side of the fairway here, so if you don’t shape your tee shot enough you could be in trouble. Another undulating green awaits.
#9 – Meadow (Par 5, 565 yards) – This hole played as a Par 4 in 2006, and it’s a pretty straight-down-the-middle affair – two good hits will lay the foundation for a short wedge in.
#10 – Pulpit (Par 3, 214 yards) – The green slopes from back to front here and the bunkers sit 8 feet below the green as well. Once more, missing is not an option.
#11 – Billows (Par 4, 384 yards) – A curving right-to-left tee shot needs to be accurate here – the intermediate rough is only five feet wide, and the heavier stuff is not to be messed with.
#12 – Cape (Par 5, 633 yards) – There’s no rest for the wicked at Winged Foot, and this snaking right-to-left hole is full of danger. There’s another mammoth tree as the hole doglegs, and the small green is flanked almost 360-degrees by bunkers.
#13 – White Mule (Par 3, 212 yards) – The funky green slopes from back to front but features a plateau at the back, so if approaches are hit to the wrong level there’s a hell of a two-putt to be made.
#14 – Shamrock (Par 4, 452 yards) – You might need the luck of the Irish to avoid falling foul of the false front on this green, and that quest is not aided by one of the narrowest fairways on the course.
#15 – Pyramids (Par 4, 426 yards) – One of the few holes to feature water, the fairway slopes towards the creek and so distance control is key. Word to the wise: don’t miss this green long.
#16 – Hells Bells (Par 498 yards) – A dramatic dogleg right-to-left, precision is key here – drives to the right-side of the fairway leave an angle in, those to the left can be blocked out by the greenside tree.
#17 – Well Well (Par 4, 504 yards) – Here you’re hitting down from the teeing ground to the fairway and then up to the green, so one again course management and distance control is key
#18 – Revelations (Par 4, 469 yards) – What a closing hole this is. The fairway narrows as it doglegs right, so if you don’t get enough shape on your drive you could be left in the thick stuff. There’s a false front to this green with a drop-off of six foot, and so this is the ultimate test of ball-striking.
2020 U.S. Open: Flyovers of Winged Foot Golf Club’s West Course, all 18 Holes
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Weather Forecast for Mamaroneck, NY
Other than Thursday, it looks set to be a cool week in this slice of New York.
The opening day looks fine enough with sunny spells and temperatures reaching 78°F.
And then the change comes. Friday looks set to be cloudy with the occasional rain shower, with the mercury struggling to 66°F.
The weekend shows no more signs of improvement, with thick cloud and temperatures remaining much the same. The wind speeds are fairly settled at 9-12 mph.
Last Year’s Results for the U.S. Open
Gary Woodland broke Brooks Koepka’s heart as he sought a historic third straight U.S. Open win at Pebble Beach.
It looked distinctly possible for a while that Brooks might get the job done, but Woodland held firm to win by three and land his first major title.
It was, for the most part, a two horse race, with Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele and Chez Reavie, all in T3, some six shots adrift of the winner.
Gary Woodland sinks birdie to win the tournament | 2019 U.S. OPEN
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the U.S. Open this Week
It’s a major week, and that brings with it a major slate of contests too. Here’s two that stand out.
- PGA $2.25M Fantasy Golf Millionaire: The milly-maker is back, so once more you can battle 25,000 players for the chance to win the million and a host of other handsome prizes- you’ll bank $150 for finishing inside the top 150 players.
- PGA $1M Empire State Special: What’s better than one slate with more than a million dollars in prizes up for grabs? Two, of course! This Empire State Special pays $250k to the winner , while the top 30 will trouser a minimum of $1k from their $10 stake.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the U.S. Open
Close your eyes and hope for the best….that might be the most sensible course of action this week!
The U.S. Open always tends to come with hyperbole about how difficult conditions are going to be, and while that doesn’t always come to pass it would be fair to say that Winged Foot looks set to live up to the billing.
Every department of a player’s game is going to be scrutinized, from their Total Driving capabilities to their approach play to – for the most part – their two-putting.
Length is key because this is a whopping golf course, but then so too is accuracy – on some holes, the intermediate rough is no more than five feet wide, and if you miss this then you’re into some rather horrid mess.
Approach play is anything but a breeze. Many in the field will be hitting longer clubs into the Par 4s than they’re usual, and these green complexes are anything but receptive – the quick Poa Annua surfaces are protected by run-offs, false fronts and, in some cases, 100 foot trees!
And then you factor in the psychological pressure of trying to win a major….all in all, whoever wins this week will have really earned their corn!
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the U.S. Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The U.S. Open
Top Tier Pick:
Jon Rahm (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 87.9, GPFP: 70.30 Salary: $11,000)
The need to get a good drive away at Winged Foot will be absolutely essential.
Many of the fairways are doglegging and the landing zones narrow, so while the temptation might be to hit a few fairway woods and irons off the tee, that leaves monumental approaches into greens that could be tough to hold.
On the flip-side, blindly whacking 320-yard tee shots into the rough is unlikely to yield results either given the density of the rough.
For our money, there aren’t many better drivers of a golf ball than Jon Rahm, and while those who draft him are contesting with a player whose temperament can occasionally get the better of him, on the plus side we are getting one of the most prolific winners on the circuit.
For all his Mediterranean intensity, Rahm actually plays tough golf courses well – confirmed by his wins at the Memorial Tournament and BMW Championship at single digits under par.
During the 2019-20 season, Rahm finished inside the top-10 in more than 50% of his starts, won twice and now has eleven worldwide victories to his name at the age of 25.
The guy is elite, and his prowess off the tee marks him out as somebody who can last the pace at Winged Foot.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 2nd
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 4th
- SG: Putting – 22nd
Top-Tier Pick #2:
Webb Simpson (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 89.4, GPFP: 83.17 Salary: $9,700)
You would assume that length will be an advantage of sorts this week, but even so hitting fairways will be key no matter what your distance off the peg.
As crucial will be the ability to grind out par, as much as blisteringly low scoring, and as a player who ranked first on Tour in 2019-20 for Bogey Avoidance and Par 4 Scoring Average clearly Webb Simpson has to be on the radar.
Yes, he’s on the short side, but if he plays to his baseline he will find more fairways than many of the other big guns in the field this week and already that hands him a competitive advantage.
There arguably isn’t a better fit than squally, hard and relentless Par 70 tracks for Simpson, and given the monumental improvements he has made on the greens in recent times he has to be considered a major contender to add another U.S. Open to his collection.
Key Stats:
- Bogey Avoidance – 1st
- SG: Approach – 6th
- SG: Putting – 13th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Paul Casey (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 67.6, GPFP: 61.52 Salary: $7,900)
The edge this week may be in drafting ‘unfashionable’ players who should, nonetheless, thrive in such tricky conditions.
Paul Casey isn’t anybody’s idea of a bet at a major, but in these quality fields his fantasy price tends to be good value – and that’s what we have here.
The Englishman missed just two cuts all season long in 2019-20, and what that tells us is that he has the all-round game to be competitive in all manner of different set-ups.
And yet, it’s on courses that are difficult to master where he looks to be the most compelling of picks. He’s a grinder who hits plenty of GIR and typically ranks well for Scoring Average, and while there’s always that concern that his short game isn’t quite up to scratch at Winged Foot it’s very much a case of hit fairways, hit greens, take two putts, make par and move on.
It’s not exactly the most exciting style, but it’s one of the reasons why Casey can thrive this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 9th
- Greens in Regulation – 14th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 15th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Sungjae Im (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 69.4, GPFP: 55.540 Salary: $7,500)
Remember, it’s imperative that you get good drives away at Winged Foot, and this is one department where Sungjae Im continues to thrive – he was tenth on Tour in 2019-20 for Total Driving.
There have been two performances this season which confirmed to us that the Korean is ready to take the step up in majors. The first was his maiden PGA TOUR win at the Honda Classic, where he showed tremendous resilience and character under pressure to get the victory.
And then at the Arnold Palmer he ground out a score of -2 on his way to solo third, and that showed his temperament and willingness to simply take par – not all players possess that characteristic.
Im opened up 68-64 at the TOUR Championship, and so he is shaping up rather nicely.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 10th
- Scoring Average – 19th
- Scrambling – 35th
Low-Tier Pick:
Jason Kokrak (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 54.1, GPFP: 57.87 Salary: $6,800)
The grinding theme continues with Jason Kokrak also on board.
It’s not been a stellar year so far for the Canadian, but timing is everything in sport and Kokrak showed his battling qualities with T6 in that tough BMW Championship renewal.
Most impressive of all, Kokrak ranked first in the field there for SG: Off-the-Tee, and remember how narrow the fairways were at Olympia Fields – it’s a comparison that is relevant, for sure.
It’s not the first time that he’s put together a solid score in tough conditions, and so hopefully he will come to the party at Winged Foot while all around him lose their heads.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 38th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 41st
- Greens in Regulation – 51st
Sleeper Pick for The U.S. Open
Martin Kaymer (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 67.1, GPFP: 79.86 Salary: $7,100)
It may have gone unnoticed with many DFS gamers, but Martin Kaymer has enjoyed something of a renaissance over on the European Tour.
In his last two starts, the German has finished T3 in the UK Championship and solo second at the ever-difficult Valderrama course in the Andalucia Masters.
Kaymer is back to doing what he does best – playing simple, no frills golf, and there’s no place like Winged Foot for maximizing your return on that particular style.
Key Stats:
- N/A
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The U.S. Open
Brian Harman (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 66.9, GPFP: 59.55 Salary: $6,400)
Having run into some decent form towards the conclusion of the FedEx Cup play-offs, Brian Harman’s price here is something of a gift.
The left-hander followed T11 at the Northern Trust with T12 at the BMW Championship, with excellent ball-striking performances in both.
Ideally, we’d like this event to be more towards the east coast to get really excited about the prospect of Harman as a sleeper play, but even so his grinding game and ability to shape the ball both ways off the tee makes him a steal this week.
Key Stats:
- Bogey Avoidance – 17th
- Scoring Average – 21st
- SG: Putting – 43rd
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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