European Tour Fantasy Golf Predictions – Andalucia Valderrama Masters

2018 Andalucia Valderrama Masters Preview

After an enjoyable week at Walton Heath for the British Masters, it’s off to one of European golf’s most iconic venues.

Valderrama will host its own Andalucia Masters this week, and with a strong Spanish favorite on show there should be plenty for the locals to cheer about.

Sergio Garcia, whose record here is unrivaled, takes top billing in a tournament he loves almost as much as any other, and in a weak field he will be expected to defend the trophy he won 12 months ago.

Sergio Garcia pf Spain practices ahead of the Andalucia Valderrama…

Sergio Garcia pf Spain practices ahead of the Andalucia Valderrama Masters at Real Club Valderrama on October 16, 2018 in Cadiz, Spain. Get premium, high resolution news photos at Getty Images

This is a very hard golf course; one of famed architect Robert Trent-Jones’ most devilish creations. The tree-lines along the fairways are so dense that errant tee shots are routinely gobbled up, with a chip out sideways the only option available.

There’s thick rough, and the small Bentgrass greens are protected by sand and the heavy stuff. Water is also in play on many holes, and with just a trio of Par 5s there is less respite than usual from the grind.

And boy, what a grind. Garcia won at -12 in benign conditions a year ago, but in 2016 cult favorite Andrew ‘Beef’ Johnston took the spoils at +1; one of the few times in history that a non-major has been won over par on European soil.

The forecast in Cadiz this week is unsettled, to say the least, with rain showers, thunderstorms and wind speeds of 12 mph all in the forecast.

It is likely to be a through examination of the players’ skillsets and physical fortitude, so who has got the game to tame Valderrama in such conditions? Let’s take a look in our Andalucia Masters picks.

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This Week’s Andalucia Valderrama Masters Fantasy Picks & Predictions

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This Week’s Andalucia Valderrama Masters Fantasy Picks

Sergio Garcia – $11,600 – There’s course form, and then there’s Sergio Garcia at Valderrama.

He’s a two-time winner at his spiritual golfing home, has finished second on three separate occasions and was also third here in 2016. Given the complexity of the layout, that really is no mean feat.

It just goes to show how comfy Garcia is at the course, and those feelings of bliss will be aided by the fact that his beloved wife, Angela, has also made the trip with him to the south of Spain this week. It’s no coincidence that the former Masters champion plays his best when his other half is in close proximity!

Is the Spaniard playing well enough to triumph this week? You’d certainly say so, because alongside his Ryder Cup exploits there has been a top-10 in his last European Tour start (T7 at the Portugal Masters) and a top-25 on the PGA TOUR at the Wyndham Championship, where he opened up 66-65-67.

In an event where quality is almost completely absent in the field, Garcia is as close as a no-brainer pick as you are ever likely to see in DFS circles.

Soren Kjeldsen – $9,800 – We are going to be banging the course form drum in this preview; there really is nothing quite like it at Valderrama.

Take Soren Kjeldsen, as another example. The Dane was T18 here last year and T4 in 2016, and prior to that he won in 2008 and was runner-up in ’07 and ’10.

Like Garcia, he’s also in the kind of form where he could take advantage. He enjoyed a little run of 6-12-12 from the Made in Denmark through to the KLM Open, and while that has tapered off somewhat since he did close out with a 70 at the British Masters on Sunday; the lowest round of the day was a 68.

Valderrama suits Kjeldsen down to the ground, as his short and steady game should be rewarded for keeping the ball in the fairway and recording a high GIR count.

Ashley Chesters – $7,900 – In the long run, you suspect it is on the Links where Ashley Chesters will enjoy his best successes, but Valderrama is a wholly different setup that still compliments his game.

The Englishman ranks 12th for Driving Accuracy this season – an outstanding 73% of fairways found from 92 rounds. For context, those above him in the standings have generally played 30 rounds or fewer on the European Tour, which highlights the magnificent achievement of Chesters on the tee box.

Solo ninth at the Made in Denmark and T16 at the Portugal Masters, his form is there and so too is an appreciation of Valderrama; he finished T12 here a year ago.

Ricardo Gouveia – $7,300 – The Portuguese player is in a really rich vein of form at the moment, and top-10s at layouts as polar opposite as Walton Heath and Dom Pedro Victoria confirms that his confidence is travelling well.

With comfortable cuts made in his last two trips to Valderrama (23-38), there is an element of comfort at a track which gives many players the creeps.

Gouveia is available at odds of 70/1 with the sportsbooks, ad so that’s why his salary here is so low, but really there are lots of players above him that do not possess his course/current form trends. Don’t miss out on this bargain pick!

David Drysdale – $6,600 – The British Masters presented something of a statistical curiosity when considering the efforts of David Drysdale.

On the one hand, he finished a lowly T63. But digging deeper, we see that he had a horror round of 80 on the Saturday as the wind blew hard.

And yet, get this: the Scot actually ranked first for Greens in Regulation for the whole tournament!

That, allied to top-10s at the European Open and KLM Open in the past few months, suggests that Drysdale s arguably worth persevering with this week.

Matteo Manassero – $6,500 – The case of Matteo Manassero is a curious one.

He had won four times on the European Tour by the age of 20, and you suspected that at that time he had a glittering career in front of him.

Now 25, things haven’t quite panned out as expected for the Italian, but every so often he shows his hand.

He closed out his efforts at the British Masters with a round of 68 – bettered only by Matt Southgate on the day – to cap a fine T22 return.

That hints, very gently, at finer things to come, and with a top-30 finish at Valderrama last year there isn’t anybody at this bargain basement price point that offers the credentials of Manassero.

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