Fantasy Golf Odds, Picks & Predictions – 2016 John Deere Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2016 John Deere Classic

The 2016 John Deere Classic Fantasy Preview

Yes – Furyk’s 58 on Sunday would have pushed any fantasy player over the edge, but our squad ended up with a decent showing at the Travelers.  We’ll talk about last week’s picks and how they performed in a second, but first let’s talk John Deere and the Olympics.

Let’s start with talk the John Deere Classic, an event owned by names like Spieth, Stricker, and Johnson.  With Spieth absent this week, Zach Johnson comes in as the heavy favorite, and for a great reason.  The 2012 champ also owns three runner-ups and two third place finishes at this event and get this, his last 28 rounds at TPC Deere Run were all sub-70.  His actual scoring average over those last eight seasons here is just 66.57!

Then you have Stricker, an old-timer, but one who has been making noise in some recent events.  Although he plays on a limited schedule, Stricker has two Top 5 finishes since May, and will try to become the first four-time winner of this event.  His run from 2009-11 remains the last time anyone has won a PGA TOUR event in three consecutive years.  With the playoffs right around the corner, it’s guys like Stricker and a handful of others who are sitting on the bubble and looking into the Top 125 with only two regular season events to go.

As for the Olympics, DraftKings is hosting a $1 million game which represents their largest game this week, and probably their most popular.  The event is run similar to a regular golf tournament, with play happening over four rounds and total fantasy points earned for scoring in the same format as on the PGA TOUR.  We’ll send out our Olympics Picks and Preview to our Premium Members before play begins this Thursday so be on the lookout for that shortly.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we ran with Bubba Watson as our horse pick, and although he drifted to a T25, he still managed to bank 77 fantasy points while our Top Tier pick Kuchar added another 82.  In total, six of our seven picks made the cut, and our best finish was Justin Thomas, who finished T3 with his four sub-70 rounds, which as we all know in DraftKings earns players +5 points (plus his +18 points for finishing 3rd).

Our sample “Mid-Tier Roster” all cashed in some quality fantasy points, and despite the missed cut from Chappell, the other five players all finished in the Top 25, and Thomas’ fantasy points helped pick up the slack to help us cash in.  In fact, four of our six players on the roster all had four rounds sub-70, and in total banked an additional +20 fantasy points.

Lastly, all five players selected in our Tuesday Sleeper Report made the cut (with all picks coming off 50/1 or greater Vegas Odds), and our best finish was Russell Henley, with his T11 and a bogey-free round three (+3 additional points).

The 2016 John Deere Classic Field

We’re not going to sugar coat it – the field is light this week, with most big players in Rio and the others prepping for the playoffs.  Zach Johnson is the headline player, and comes in as the top-priced pick at $13,000.  But is he worth it?  Other clutch players that fantasy managers will be looking at this week are Stricker, Rahm, Summerhays, and Ryan Moore.

As we previewed,  Stricker is a horse for the course, but a gamble at best given his age.  Vaughn Taylor, Kevin Na, Jerry Kelly and Peter Malnati are some other fantasy studs on fantasy owner’s radars for sure and any one of them could unseat one of the previous champions here.

Here is the full field for this week’s event.

This Week’s Course Preview

TPC Deere Run measures in at 7,268 yards, and will play as a par 71 this week.  In the past few editions of the JDC, Driving Accuracy and Power have led to victory (as well as GIR).  The course is set up as one of the easiest on TOUR, and excellent ball strikers can dominate this course without hesitation.

A photo posted by TPC Deere Run (@tpcdeererun) on Jul 24, 2016 at 6:23am PDT

The course is filled with plenty of dramatic elevation changes, including the infamous downhill 14th, which measures 358 yards and will played by most as a drivable par-4.  This course has seen both a 59 and a 60 in its tenure, and with the way some of the guys in this field have been playing, we may just see scores that low again.

Weather Forecast for Silvis, Illinois

Thunderstorms threaten the area during Rounds 1 and 2 this week, but should move out of town by the weekend.  Things could get a little slow and messy out there during the first couple of days, so expect lower scores over the weekend if that weather does roll in.

The temperatures should fall to the low 70’s during the event, which should present a cooler spring-like feel for the latter part of the tournament.

Last Year’s Results from the John Deere Classic

Jordan Spieth won his second John Deere title in a three-year span last year after beating out Tom Gillis on the second playoff hole.  Spieth was ahead by two strokes going into the final day, then fell behind immediately after Gillis dropped six birdies in his first eight holes.

Gillis finally cooled off as Spieth went on to birdie four of his last six, which proved to be the deciding factor.  A huge chip-in on 16 to force a playoff fired up Spieth, and the young gun took that momentum into sudden death.  Gillis ended up finding the water hazard on the second playoff hole, and Spieth sealed the deal right then.

[embedyt] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5S-iNs-lUY8[/embedyt]

This Week’s Broadcast Schedule

• Television Broadcasts
  • Thursday-Friday, 5-8 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
  • Saturday-Sunday, 3-6 p.m. (CBS).
• Mobile Broadcasts 
  • PGA TOUR LIVE:Thursday-Friday, 8:30 a.m.-5 p.m. (featured groups), 5-8 p.m. (featured holes).
• RADIO
  • Thursday-Friday, 1-8p.m.
  • Saturday-Sunday, 1-6 p.m. (PGA TOUR Radio on SiriusXM and PGATOUR.com).

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the John Deere Classic this Week

With so many people jumping on board the $1 million event for the 2016 Olympics, you would have to think the competition for the JDC would be small, and therefore more in your favor.  So if you don’t feel like shelling out the $20 entry fee for the big event, here’s the best bang for your buck this week for this event.

• PGA $25K BIRDIE [$25,000 GUARANTEED]:  This game, with a $3 entry, will have a max of about 9,000 players, with $2,000 going to 1st place.  Players who finish up to 1920th place will cash in, and for the cheap price of $3, you can enter this one a handful of times for a crack at a couple thousand bucks.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the John Deere Classic

TPC Deere Run ranks as one of the easiest Par 71 tracks on TOUR, and players will superb distance and accuracy will play well here.  Although ZJ is the top-rated guy in the field this week, do you think it’s a good idea to spend a whopping $13,000 on him?  We’ll let you know our thoughts in our picks segment below but first, here’s a look at at our Fantasy Algorithms and how our Top 5 Power Players stack up:

Despite the field being weak, there are plenty of excellent low-priced sleeper picks that can help round out your rosters and just to let you know, we’re taking TWO horse picks this week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2016 John Deere Classic

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the John Deere Classic

Horse Picks: ($13,000 – $9,8000)

Jon Rahm (Golficity Odds 14/1 FPPG: 89.02 GPFP: 92.04 Salary: $11,400):  With the way Rahm has been playing, it’s a wise choice to take the cheaper player with the hotter hand.  Of course, ZJ is the extreme horse for the course, but Rahm has been a fantasy stud lately.  With two 100+ FPPG outings in his last four events, Rahm comes in beaming with confidence.  Since turning pro, Rahm’s 5-for-5 with a T2, a T3, and a T25, and has an excellent game suitable for this easy track.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season (not enough events played for recorded stats)

• Driving Distance: NA
• Driving Accuracy: NA
• Greens in Regulation: NA
• Strokes Gained: Putting: NA
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: NA

* Most Notable Stat: NA

Gary Woodland (Golficity Odds 24/1 FPPG: 64.55 GPFP: 82.62 Salary: $10,000):  So we’re benching ZJ and Stricker and playing Rahm and Woodland.  It’s gutsy, but that’s what sets you apart from all the other fantasy managers out there.  Hands down Woodland is a strong pick this week.  In his last edition of the JDC in 2013, he finished T48, but that’s irrelevant here.  Despite a pair of missed cuts since April, Woodland has been banking a ton of Top 25’s and putting up solid fantasy points almost every week.  He has power off of the tee and he ranks 2nd in our GPFP ranking this week.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Driving Distance: 5th
• Driving Accuracy: 162nd
• Greens in Regulation: 27th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 121st
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 15th

* Most Notable Stat: Driving Distance: 5th

Mid-Tier Pick ($8,600-$9,700)

Robert Garrigus (Golficity Odds 45/1 FPPG: 58.71  GPFP: 73.9 Salary: $9,000): Garrigus hasn’t made much noise on TOUR this season except for his most recent T4 last week at the Travelers.  But on this course, it’s a different story.  Garrigus has Top 25’s here since 2009, and seems to play the course competitively almost every time out.  He also has four Top 11 finishes on TOUR since May, and ranks 22nd in GIR and Birdies-Or-Better Percentage – two solid stats for this week’s venue.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Driving Distance: 21st
• Driving Accuracy: 184th
• Greens in Regulation: 22nd
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 143rd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 33rd

* Most Notable Stat: Strokes Gained: Approach-The-Green: 4th

Low-Tier Picks ($7,500 – $8,500)

Patrick Rodgers (Golficity Odds 48/1 FPPG: 54.40 GPFP: 55.48 Salary: $8,500):  Rodgers made a lot of noise last week at TPC River Highlands, with a T3 finish and four rounds of sub-70 golf.  He ended up the week ranked extremely well in Strokes Gained: Putting, and his game looked to be in tune and perhaps the best it has been all season.  This momentum could carry over to the easier track at TPC Deere Run, and we could see another solid week from the long ball hitting 24-year-old.  Keep an eye out for Rogers as he ranks 7th in GIR on TOUR, and 1st in the field this week for that stat.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Driving Distance: 20th
• Driving Accuracy: 149th
• Greens in Regulation: 7th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 165th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 58th

* Most Notable Stat:  GIR: 7th

Keegan Bradley (Golficity Odds 50/1 FPPG: 49.06 GPFP: 52.01 Salary: $7,800):  Keegan really hasn’t given fantasy owners much to cheer for all season, but as of late he’s been putting some high FPPG numbers on the board.  Averaging over 60 FPPG in his last four starts, Keegan looks as if he is slowly creeping back into the spotlight with some impressive rounds as of late.  Although he only has one Top 10 this season, Bradley could thrive in a field like this and very much be that lightning in a bottle we’re looking for.  Vegas has him at 35:1 odds, but we’re thinking more like 50:1 this week which is why we have him in our low tier.  He’s a long ball hitter and is one of the most accurate off the tee in this field.  He ranks a solid 10th in GIR on TOUR and 3rd in this field.  As in previous events though his putter is what scares us, but we’re hoping these easier TPC Deere Run greens bail him out.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Driving Distance: 36th
• Driving Accuracy: 38th
• Greens in Regulation: 10th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 197th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 26th

* Most Notable Stat:  GIR: 10th

Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the John Deere Classic

Spencer Levin (Golficity Odds 60/1 FPPG: 56.22 GPFP: 53.97  Salary: $7,400):  Spencer comes in on the heels of T14 and T11 finishes, and is averaging around 80 FPPG over the last two events.  Last week at the Travelers, Levin shot all four rounds under 70 and finished T11, which marks his 5th Top 15 finish this season.  What he lacks in power off the tee, he makes up with supreme accuracy and excellent putting and around-the-green stats.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Driving Distance: 164th
• Driving Accuracy: 19th
• Greens in Regulation: 70th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 97th
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 84th

* Most Notable Stat:  Driving Accuracy: 19th

Salary Cap League Super Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the John Deere Classic

Tyrone Van Aswegen (Golficity Odds 100/1 FPPG: 55.19 GPFP: 53.53 Salary: $6,600):  TVA made some noise last week with his sparkling T5 finish at the Travelers, where he ranked fifth in Strokes Gained: Putting and first in Scrambling.  The finish marked his 5th Top 25 of the season, right in time for a playoff push which he currently qualifies for.  He put up a stellar 96 fantasy points last week, and he could find that same magic on an easier Deere Run this week.  Look out for more surging play from this 34-year-old as the Barclays nears in just two weeks.

Tour Stats 2015-2016 Season

• Driving Distance: 117th
• Driving Accuracy: 187th
• Greens in Regulation: 113th
• Strokes Gained: Putting: 93rd
• Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green: 117th

* Most Notable Stat:  Strokes Gained: Around – The – Green: 29th

Sample DraftKings Lineup With Jon Rahm

Bonus “Mid-Tier Heavy” Sample Roster

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Last Week’s Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Travelers’ Championship

• Bubba Watson (Golficity Odds 12/1) T25 ($47,226)
• Matt Kuchar (Golficity Odds 20/1) T17 ($83,490)
• John Rahm (Golficity Odds 28/1) T25 ($47,226)
• Justin Thomas (Golficity Odds 50/1) T3 ($382,800)
• Ryan Moore (Golficity Odds 55/1) T17 ($83,490)

Last Week’s Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Travelers Championship

• Luke List (Golficity Odds 125/1) MC

Last Week’s Salary Cap League Sleeper Pick/Odds to Win the Travelers’ Championship

• Alex Cejka (Golficity Odds 175/1) T11 ($135,300)

Fantasy Golf Predictions YTD (2015-2016)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”9.92%” bar_text=”25 out of 252 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”21.03%” bar_text=”53 out of 252 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”25.00%” bar_text=”9 out of 36 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”22.22%” bar_text=”8 out of 36 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”75.79″ bar_text=”191 out of 252 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the 2016 John Deere Classic with other Premium Members.

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Cover Photo via Instagram.