Fantasy Golf Picks & Predictions for the 2016 Olympics in Rio

Fantasy Golf Preview for the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio

2016 Olympics Fantasy Golf Preview

After so much effort and investment was made into restoring golf as an Olympic sport for the first time in more than a century, it is perhaps slightly disappointing to see that six of the world’s top ten golfers have decided to turn down the invitation, with reasons as varied as concerns over the Zika virus to ‘tiredness’ being cited.  The awkward truth, and one which has been largely overlooked, is that in actual fact most youngsters with ambitions of being a golf pro dream of winning majors, not an Olympic gold.  That is clear for all to see.

Nevertheless, the show must go on and a still-decent 60-man field has gathered in Rio to battle it out for a podium finish from Thursday August 11 to Sunday August 14.  The Open Championship winner Henrik Stenson will be representing Sweden, while a litany of other former major champions – Bubba Watson, Justin Rose, Martin Kaymer and Padraig Harrington – will be on hand to wear the colors of USA, Great Britain, Germany and Ireland respectively.  It’s that American quartet of Bubba, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed and Matt Kuchar that really catches the eye, and while this isn’t a team format (much to Kuchar’s chagrin) we would not be surprised if the Star-Spangled Banner is ringing out across Brazil come Sunday evening.

Not much is known of this brand new Olympic Golf Course (imaginative name, right?) other than it was designed by the famed Gil Hanse, who is also responsible for the renovations at Doral and the Scottish Links set-up at Castle Stuart.  In fact, it is believed that this Olympic stretch will have a Linksy feel to it with its wide open spaces, forceful breeze precipitated by a lack of tree coverage, and some 79 bunkers, as well as the addition of native grasses and sand which will surely add to the challenge.  At 7,128 yards, this Par 71 is certainly tamable and the implementation of five Par 3s will surely please some more than others.  An exciting collection of late holes, including a 303-yard Par 4 and a Par 5 very much driveable in two for the vast majority of the field, will present scoring opportunities, and so DFS managers will need to factor this into their draft.

This tournament will be a traditional 72 hole strokeplay format, rather than any kind of matchplay rubbers, so there is little in the way of workable angles in other than current form and a penchant for Links golf.  With the native grass and sand a nuisance, rather than a penal punishment, any advantage that the South American players may have had on those from the rest of the world is diminished.  Temperatures look set to be in the mid-20s too, so we have no concerns there either.  Downpours on Wednesday could soften up proceedings for Thursday’s early starters, but remember that this is a reduced 60-man field, so there is no real benefit in starting early as most of the field will be out within a couple of hours of each other.

Is motivation an issue?  Well, the lack of prize money might suggest for some that this is merely a jolly time in the sunshine, but having seen the rabid, patriotic beasts that the Ryder Cup has made of Patrick Reed and Justin Rose clearly representing their country, rather than just themselves, brings out a new level of performance in these guys.  Trying to mangle PGA TOUR and European Tour stats together to produce something more meaningful on a track we have no idea about is tricky, but there is a suggestion that Reed and co. are up for the scrap and that in itself should lead to a quality competition unfolding.

Money management will be key this week when drafting your roster for a shot at that DraftKings million on the line this week; the options at the bottom end of the market hold very little appeal, and there aren’t many sleepers to work with either.  Our strategy has been to plunder the ‘upper middle’ of the salary range, and here is how our draft is shaping up:

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2016 Olympics Fantasy Golf Picks

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2016 Olympics Fantasy Golf Picks

Patrick Reed ($10,700) – Reed is a bombastic, chest-thumping American who is proud to put on the stars & stripes; you only need to see his performances at the Ryder Cup to see that.  Indeed, he said in July that ‘Just thinking about having a gold medal means a lot.  I think the biggest thing is I get to represent my country again.  I get to wear the red, white and blue.  Any time I get to wear those colors, it’s a huge day.’  He is clearly thinking about winning the whole darn shooting match in Rio.

The good news is that his form is strong heading into the event, and the even better news is that he is carving out something of a niche for himself as an exceptional Links golfer.  And so a run of T13 at the PGA Championship and T11 at the Travelers came on the back of a 10-12 return at the Scottish Open (played at Castle Stuart) and the Open Championship.  Four consecutive top 20s in competitive fields?  We like those apples.

Many have been waiting for Reed to take his game to the next level and become a regular tour winner, and perhaps he has found the missing piece in the jigsaw: Dave Stockton, golf’s putting guru de jour, has been brought into the Texan’s camp to help with his flatstick game.  Stockton is widely regarded with helping Phil Mickelson to reinvent his game in 2009, so can he help Reed find his mojo on the dancefloor?  Only time will tell, but it will surely prove to be a fruitful move.

As you have probably gathered, we don’t know much about this Olympic set-up, but Reed’s magic touch on approach (he ranks eighth for Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green) is a universal skill that tends to manifest itself as birdies no matter what the conditions.  Bank on the patriot to go hard for his country in Brazil.

Emiliano Grillo ($9,600) – A South American Links specialist that’s in good form?  We’re sold on Emiliano Grillo this week.

The Argentine was leading The Open Championship at the halfway stage just a few weeks ago before settling for a share of 12th, and this return also enabled him to become one of the few players this season to record top 20 finishes in three separate majors.  If you are looking for a man that excels on the big stage, Grillo is your man.

A 38% success rate in finishing in the top 25 this season is outstanding, and ranking inside the world’s top 40 for Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation and Total Birdies gives us a firm foundation on which to build; even if we don’t have a clue how the course will play!

Soren Kjeldsen ($8,500) – The great Dane is a kind of horse for courses pick in that his last three visits to Castle Stuart have yielded finishes of 31-5-21, and that he bagged a top ten at The Open Championship in July.  A top 30 at Doral earlier this year in the WGC Cadillac Championship – another famed Gil Hanse track – suggests Kjeldsen has an eye for this designer’s finest work.

Kjeldsen has only missed two cuts in twelve starts on the PGA TOUR, and that suggests a very nice consistency to his play, and his arrow straight driving (ranking ninth for Driving Accuracy), majestic approach play (third for approaches > 200 yards) and sound putting (44th for Strokes Gained: Putting) at least means the world number 44 will give us a run for our money.

This Danish doyen of golf is a four-time European Tour winner too, which may be of assistance come the business end on Sunday afternoon.

Padraig Harrington ($7,700) – A strong summer major showing has just given DFS managers a gentle reminded that Padraig Harrington is still worthy of support when the price is right.

A quick look at the DraftKings roster this week suggests that the Irishman is by far the best play in the $7,700 > price bracket.  Back to back returns of 36th and 13th in The Open and the PGA Championship respectively confirm as such, and a cut made at the Travelers was given extra credence by the 65 that Harrington blitzed in round three.

You know what you’re getting with the three-time major winner: a slightly messy tee to fairway game is saved by that feather-light touch around the greens, and a really strong hand when playing from the bunkers (ranking 17th on tour for Sand Save Percentage) dictates that he will be okay should he fall foul of the grainy stuff.  Transforming bunker bunts into birdie chances and par saves could be a staple of DFS diets in Rio.

Nicolas Colsaerts ($6,900) – The Belgian has gone pretty quiet of late Stateside, but he is still very much doing the business on the European Tour.

Colsaerts’ love of Links golf and Castle Stuart in particular (two top-10s in his last two starts there) was what immediately caught the eye, as is a decent campaign for the big hitter that has yielded some eight top 25 finishes.

He’s played well in the desert in the past and took T3 at the Mauritius Open this season, which has no real significance to Brazil but at least he is comfortable playing outside of his European stronghold, and statistically here’s a guy who is regularly driving 300 yards plus on average (perfect for the makeable shorter holes here), hitting 75% of greens and who is – statistically at least – putting better than at any other point in his career.

Fabian Gomez ($6,300) – By no means a big hitter, Fabian Gomez will love working with the five Par 3s that this Olympic course has to offer.  He ranks 21st on the PGA TOUR for Par 3 Birdies or Better, and that provides a handy angle in for DFS managers in an event that otherwise we have very little to work with.

The world number 79 is up to 38 in the FedExCup rankings, so he is outperforming his expected level, and an eye-catching win at the Sony Open earlier this year – a similarly short wind-affected stretch in Hawaii – is of interest.  Recent form is patchy as he has missed his last two cuts at The Open and the PGA Championship, but Gomez’s game isn’t really suited to the cut and thrust of majors.

His South American heritage may help him to acclimatize to conditions better than his North American, African Asian and European opponents, and either way in the DraftKings’ ‘bargain basement’ this week he looks the best special offer.

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Cover photo via Instagram