Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2020 CJ CUP
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the CJ CUP
The CJ CUP Fantasy Preview
Are we sure that COVID-19 hasn’t opened up some kind of portal back to 2013?
That can be the only way to explain the list of old-school PGA TOUR winners in recent weeks and months, with Michael Thompson, Jim Herman, Stewart Cink and even Sergio Garcia all getting back into the winners’ circle.
The next cab off the rank is Martin Laird, who made a mockery of his eight-year long trophy drought by besting our Top Tier pick Matthew Wolff and Austin Cook in a playoff at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open last week.
Laird, a former winner and runner-up at the Shriners in the glory days of 2009-10, did things the hard way, pulling his tee shot right on the 71st hole and setting up a horrible approach from a downslope and through a glut of trees, but the Scot somehow got up and down. More drama was to follow on the 72nd hole when he again missed the fairway to the right, and a bogey there allowed his young adversaries into the playoff mix.
However, Laird made no mistake at the second extra hole, earning the ultimate redemption on the 17th with a birdie for the win. Cue impending victories for Brandt Snedeker, Russell Henley, Brian Gay and the rest of the Class of 2013….
It may be more of a case for the stars of today rather than yesteryear at this week’s event, the CJ Cup, with a top-class field heading to Shadow Creek in Las Vegas.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week our horse Cantlay faded to T8 while our Top-Tier pick Matthew Wolff almost made us proud!
Wolff finished T2 after losing in the playoff, and Niemann, another mid-pick of ours finished T13.
The CJ CUP 2020 Field
As ever, it’s a 78-man field that will tee it up this week, with reigning FedEx Cup champion Dustin Johnson taking headline honors alongside the likes of Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm.
Brooks Koepka makes his return from hip and knee injuries – he’s enjoyed plenty of success in the desert in the past, while Tyrrell Hatton flies in to Nevada on the back of winning the European Tour’s flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship, last week.
A quality supporting cast featuring the likes of Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau and Matthew Wolff catches the eye, while the European charge will be led by Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick.
Unfortunately, the CJ Cup will this year be played on U.S. soil for obvious reasons, but five South Koreans – Jeong-woo Ham, Han-byeol Kim, Jae-kyeoung Lee, Seong-hyeun Kim and Tae-hee Lee – have been invited over to play alongside PGA TOUR regular Kyoung-hoon Lee.
This Week’s Course Preview
Ordinarily, the PGA TOUR would be making a stop-off at the ultra-picturesque Nine Bridges course on Jeju Island, South Korea for the CJ Cup.
But coronavirus has understandably put paid to that, and so the Tour will remain in Nevada instead with Shadow Creek stepping in as a one-year only host.
You may recall ‘The Match’ between Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson in 2018, and that was played out at this exclusive club that was built in 1989 from designs provided by Tom Fazio.
Originally Shadow Creek was only available to guests of the MGM Resort, and at $500 a round it remains as one of the most expensive layouts to play in North America.
As far as how it will play as a tournament course, we know that the track has been extended to around 7,560 yards for its Par 72, and so it is something of a hefty slice of real estate.
Despite the desert location, there are many trees lining the fairways and it has a lush, parklands feel, although the baking hot temperatures and strong winds do a good job of drying out the surfaces – the Bentgrass greens can run as a fast as 14 on the stimpmeter, making them amongst the slickest around.
The fairways are pretty wide but the rough can be left to a fearsome length, and with slick, undulating greens the players could be in for a decent test this week.
What’s more, Shadow Creek is located around 30 minutes from the Las Vegas strip – how will such distractions impact upon their night time preparations?
Weather Forecast for Las Vegas, NV
It’s essentially a case of ‘as you were’ following on from the Shriners last week.
Las Vegas will be really rather hot, with temperatures ranging from a sultry 88°F to a sweat-inducing 92°F. Needless to say, all four days of the tournament look set to be sunny and rain-free.
The wind can whip up in this part of the world, of course, but the forecast is pretty benign for Nevada this week. Thursday could see the stiffest breeze at 13 mph, but after that it looks set to drop to 7 mph for the weekend.
Last Year’s Results for the CJ CUP
Golf is a whole different ball game on Jeju Island compared to Shadow Creek, but it still takes a quality performance to prevail and that’s exactly what Justin Thomas delivered.
You may just recall the fantastic dual JT had with local favorite Danny Lee, who was cheered on by a passionate home crowd in the good old days when people were actually allowed to attend sporting events.
Thomas is strong in contention, and with the 54-hole lead to his credit few expected him to relinquish his grip on the trophy. But huge credit went to Lee, who matched him shot-for-shot and even had a chance to take full advantage when JT made a mistake at 17 on the Sunday.
But, like all great champions do, Thomas rallied on the last to secure a two-shot victory to claim his second CJ Cup win in just the three years that the tournament has been in existence.
Highlights | Round 4 | THE CJ CUP 2019
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the CJ CUP this Week
With only 78 players in the field, and a number of those easy to discard as possible winners, these aren’t the most ideal conditions for DFS gamers. So caution is advised….but that’s not to say that there isn’t some eye-catching contests to enter this week.
- PGA $150k Drive the Green: It’s like a super-fun lottery, with a $5 ticket buying you a chance to win the $25k top prize. But this lottery has lots of consolation prizes, including at least $50 for those who finish inside the top 50.
- PGA $225k Club Twirl: If you want to narrow down your competition, there’s less than 6,000 players in this field and yet for $44 you could scoop the top prize of $50k. The top-25 will win a minimum of $500.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the CJ CUP
We are of course taking something of a leap into the unknown at Shadow Creek, a course that has only been given one televised outing back in 2018.
What we do know is that it features the dual-pronged character of being both long and possessing thick rough, and so it’s likely that a strong driver will give themselves a huge edge on the field if they can pound these fairways relentlessly. Bomb and gouge may not be the way to go – perhaps that’s why Bryson declined to take up his invitation despite playing the Shriners last week.
The green complexes look pretty funky too with some undulations and run-offs, and if they run as threatened at 14 on the stimp then they will require the purest of putting strokes in order to prevail.
The weather forecast is pretty interesting. The wind may not be much of a factor but it’s going to be darn hot, and anybody that has spent time in Vegas (or any desert for that matter) will know that it is a unique dry heat that can take your breath away – maybe the fitter, younger players will have something of a competitive advantage.
And we’ll also see two unwritten stats get a rare outing this week. Strokes Gained: Stay Out of the Casino and Strokes Gained: Make Sure You Get An Early Night!
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the CJ CUP
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The CJ CUP
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jon Rahm (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 85.9, GPFP: 83.27 Salary: $11,300)
There is a fine margin between any of the ‘big four’ at the head of the betting market for the CJ Cup, but Jon Rahm gets the nod for our roster based upon his exceptional record in desert-like conditions.
The Spaniard is a former winner of the CareerBuilder Challenge – now known as the American Express – in the Californian desert, and over on the European Tour he had twice triumphed in the DP World Tour Championship in the dry heat of Dubai.
Take his T23 at the U.S. Open out of the equation – a decent effort anyway in tough conditions, and Rahm’s recent formline for his last six events reads wins in the BMW Championship and Memorial Tournament, top-10s in the Northern Trust and TOUR Championship (strokeplay scoring) and a T13 in the PGA Championship. Only Dustin Johnson can compete with that.
At home in the west and on fast Bentgrass greens, Rahm is one of the best drivers of the ball on the planet and he will surely fancy his chances this week.
Key Stats (2019-20):
- Scoring Average – 2nd
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 4th
- SG: Putting – 22nd
Top Tier Pick #2:
Collin Morikawa (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 73.0, GPFP: 58.43 Salary: $9,500)
While Tony Finau holds plenty of appeal in these conditions, we have to be mindful of drafting players immediately after a positive COVID-19 test – even for those who are asymptomatic. That derailed Scottie Scheffler’s fine progress, and it will trip up others too.
And so we will look to take advantage of the fickle nature of the golf public by taking Collin Morikawa at a more than acceptable salary.
Two missed cuts and you’re thrown in the bin….but let’s take a closer look. Morikawa missed the weekend at Winged Foot – no shame in that, and then he MC’d at Shriners last week despite posting a score of -6 with rounds of 67 and 69. Again, there’s hardly a need to press the panic button.
Recent PGA TOUR events have been putting shootouts, which will never be Morikawa’s forte, and instead his competitive advantage comes at layouts where tee-to-green prowess is rewarded – we expect Shadow Creek to fall into that category.
And oh ye of short memory. It’s not that long since Morikawa was winning the PGA Championship and finishing seventh in the strokeplay scoring at the TOUR Championship. Write him off at your peril….
Key Stats (2019-20):
- SG: Approach – 2nd
- Scoring Average – 15th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 19th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 72.1, GPFP: 57.69 Salary: $8,200)
Another player with a penchant for dry, hot and windy conditions is Abraham Ancer, whose best work has tended to come in desert-like atmospherics.
He won the Australian Open in typically Antipodean conditions, and has banked top-fives in the Shriners and American Express – both played in the desert in the western half of America. Other notable performances in hot and breezy Nashville and Saudi Arabia add fuel to the fire.
Ancer’s short game was in excellent order in his solo fourth at Shriners last week, and if he can meet that in the middle with his customary tee-to-green efficiency then another fine performance should be in the offing.
Key Stats (2019-20):
- Scoring Average – 16th
- SG: Putting – 41st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 42nd
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Shane Lowry (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 54.7, GPFP: 56.87 Salary: $7,600)
When conditions are firm and fast and where missed GIR is likely from most in the field, the short game mastery of Shane Lowry immediately springs to mind.
It’s no coincidence that the chipping skills of the Irishman have helped him thrive on the Links (he won the British Open in 2019 remember) and in the desert (he’s a former Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship victor and two-time DP World Tour Championship runner-up), and he should feel right at home at Shadow Creek.
T13 at the BMW PGA Championship last week after contending pretty much throughout, Lowry heads to Las Vegas in good spirits.
Key Stats (2019-20):
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 28th
- Scoring Average – 32nd
- Greens in Regulation – 34th
Low-Tier Pick:
MacKenzie Hughes (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 55.9, GPFP: 44.74 Salary: $6,800)
Fast and firm greens often bring to mind MacKenzie Hughes, the Canadian with the elite-level short game.
That prowess on and around the greens tends to travel nicely wherever he goes, but Hughes has been efficient from tee-to-green lately – evidenced by top-10s at the BMW Championship and TOUR Championship and solo third at the Corales Punta Cana.
Hughes’ best days on the PGA TOUR, from winning the RSM Classic to finishing solo second at the Honda Classic earlier this season, have come in windy conditions too, so if the breeze does get up in Vegas then you can rest assured you’ve drafted a player who will be wholly comfortable.
Key Stats (2019-20):
- SG: Around-the-Green – 6th
- SG: Putting – 8th
- Scoring Average – 64th
Sleeper Pick for The CJ CUP
Cameron Smith (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 63.1, GPFP: 59.98 Salary: $6,800)
Firm, fast and breezy is typically where Cameron Smith does his best work, and with improvements of late maybe he will seize his opportunity at Shadow Creek.
The Aussie has been below-par for a while, but battled back with a rejuvenating T38 in the U.S. Open and played well for T24 at Shriners last time out, gaining strokes on the field on approach and around and on the greens.
A two-time winner of the Australian PGA Championship and a victor of the Sony Open earlier this year, squally conditions seem to suit Smith and he will be hoping to continue his upward trend this week.
Key Stats (2019-20):
- SG: Putting – 46th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 71st
- Scoring Average – 74th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The CJ CUP
Andrew Landry (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 51.5, GPFP: 41.17 Salary: $6,100)
While it would be extraordinary if Andrew Landry wins this week, all we’re looking for from him is a performance that outweighs this meagre salary.
And why not? The Texan seems to love life in the desert, winning the American Express and also finishing runner-up in the Californian event, and he was up to his tricks when opening with a round of 64 at the Shriners last week.
A winner in his home state, Landry doesn’t mind a breeze and he will certainly be one to watch if the weather takes an unexpected turn in Vegas.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 63rd
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 75th
- Scrambling – 92nd
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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