Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic
The 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic Fantasy Preview
Given all the Thanksgiving turkey and the huge announcement of the PGA TOUR and the European Tour’s ‘strategic alliance’, Robert Streb’s victory at the RSM Classic feels like a lifetime ago.
But reign victorious Streb did on St Simon’s Island, and as has been commonplace since the coronavirus outbreak he did so completely out of left-field – he’d recorded just one top-20 finish in his previous 19 starts.
But returns to happy hunting grounds tend to produce such results, and maybe we shouldn’t be too surprised that two former RSM Classic champions were contesting a playoff to see who triumphed in the 2020 edition.
In the end, Streb downed Kevin Kisner to claim his second PGA TOUR title – and his first since the RSM Classic of 2014.
In the meantime, the announcement of the two Tours hooking up is pretty historic given the friction that has existed in the past. Whether this came to protect the future of golf – and stave off concerns about a breakaway ‘Premier Golf League’ or similar – remains to be seen, but it should be great for the sport if the two main Tours can work together on scheduling, prize money and such things.
For now though, let’s focus on the Mayakoba Golf Classic – this week’s tournament and the last ‘proper’ event of a tumultuous 2020.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week was a tough one. We went from picking The Masters champ to missing 4 cuts at the RSM. But that’s ok, because we had a week off to change some things up.
Last week however, our best finish was Piercy’s T18 and after that, nothing much to brag about. You win some, you lose some in fantasy.
With a heavier field, let’s see if we can win back some cash this week in Mexico!
The 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic 2020 Field
This was supposed to be the location of Dustin Johnson’s return to PGA TOUR action following his win in The Masters, however he withdrew from the field after deciding to spend some time with Paulina and the kids instead.
So instead headline honors in Mexico will go to Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka, who have only ever teed it up once apiece at El Camaleon.
The home crowd, while not on the premises in person but watching on from home, will be rooting for Abraham Ancer and recent Houston Open champion Carlos Ortiz, while an amateur who caught the eye along with Ancer at Augusta National – Andy Ogletree – will make his first professional start on a sponsor exemption.
Speaking of sponsor exemptions, Will Zalatoris gets another chance to strut his stuff on the PGA TOUR, and that’s a high quality supporting cast – Tony Finau, Daniel Berger, Rickie Fowler, Harris English and Viktor Hovland to name just a few.
This Week’s Course Preview
When you look at a rollcall of the most recent winners of the Mayakoba Classic, you don’t actually need to know much more about the venue.
Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Pat Perez, Graeme McDowell….you know already that driving distance is irrelevant at El Camaleon, and that you need to be comfortable in a stiff wind.
Yes, El Camaleon is a coastal, almost Links style test that measures in at a short 6,987 yards for its Par 71, and so all of the boxes we would expect are already ticked.
Greg Norman was on design duties with this layout, and his instructions were to leave the rough quite thick and gnarly – hence why more accurate types have thrived here.
But this being Fall golf, the course should play nice and soft this week, with accurate iron play and a solid putting action all key to getting the job done.
Putting is a key factor because these greens run so modestly when compared to recent endeavors on Tour. Squally Paspalum tends not to be the slickest of surface at the best of times, and in these unsettled months weather-wise that is especially the case.
Weather Forecast for Playa Del Carmen, MEX
While warm, it’s fair to say that the players are in for an unsettled and at times unpleasant week in Playa del Carmen.
The mercury will hit 82°F, but unfortunately that seems likely to be met with thundery outbursts and storms – some of those could prove very heavy indeed.
Thursday and Friday could see the worst of the meteorological activity, while the forecast for Sunday is one of slightly cooler temperatures and pretty solid rain throughout the day.
Surprisingly, the wind may not be all that much of a factor, with top speeds of 10 mph predicted.
Last Year’s Results for the 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic
There’s a saying in the UK that something can be like standing at a bus stop – you wait ages for a bus to come along, and then two come along at once.
It’s just a throwaway metaphor, but it sums up the 2019 of Brendon Todd quite nicely. He went five years between his first and second PGA TOUR wins, the latter of which came at the Bermuda Championship. And then, lo and behold, he went on to land his third title in his very next start at the Mayakoba Classic.
An opening round of 63 set him on his way, and after a Friday consolidation a further 65 in tougher conditions on the Saturday saw Todd enter the frame for silverware once more.
The confidence taken from his drought-ending victory in Bermuda clearly played a part in Mexico too, as he held off a number of close competitors on Sunday to win by one shot from Adam Long, Vaughn Taylor and home favorite Carlos Ortiz.
The low round of the week was shared by Matt Kuchar, defending his 2018 win, and Danny Lee with a nine-under par 62.
Brendon Todd’s highlights | Round 4 | Mayakoba 2019
In the final round of the 2019 Mayakoba Golf Classic, Brendon Todd remained at the top of the leaderboard to share the clubhouse lead just before play is called due to darkness. SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Matt Kuchar returns to Mexico looking to defend his Mayakoba Golf Classic title.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic this Week
This is your final chance of 2020 to play DFS golf – as far as the PGA TOUR is concerned, anyway, so make the most of the opportunity to see the back of a bizarre year with a profitable week on these noteworthy contests.
- PGA $300k Club Twirl: Hopefully you’ve built up a handy bankroll over the course of this year, so maybe now is the time for a bit of a splurge – we have a decent handle on what to expect this week after all. For $44, you could et the $100k top prize or at least $500 for finishing inside the top-25.
- PGA $75k Birdie: You may have a different mindset – accumulating multiple prizes here to take into 2021. If so, this $3 contest might be the one because you can enter as many as 20 times, with $7,500 to the victor.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic
It’s worth repeating the names of the five most recent champions of the Mayakoba Classic: Todd, Kuchar, Kizzire, Perez and McDowell.
Short hitters, high GIR, reliable putting strokes….if this was some sort of cheesy TV detective series from the 80s, the protagonist would by now be saying ‘case dismissed!’ or something equally cliched.
The point is that players of a certain ilk – some would call them grinders, others would say plodders – thrive at El Camaleon, and there’s no obvious reason to deviate from such a policy this week.
The possible presence of the rain is interesting because that will bring longer hitters into the mix given that the average-width fairways will have less ball run, but that is a concern for those wanting to take a risk – otherwise, why would we deviate from such a clear and obvious strategy?
If you cast your mind back over previous editions of the Mayakoba Classic, this is not the most glamorous or even exciting of events. The winning mark – there’s been an average of around -20 recorded – highlights that this is an easy resort course when the weather is benign, which given the weak wind forecast it should well be this time around.
And if you’re really clutching at straws, take a look at the leaderboard and the data from the RSM Classic last time out – that’s a tournament that actually leads rather nicely into this one with a number of similar characteristics.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic
Top Tier Pick #1:
Justin Thomas (Odds: 7/1, FPPG: 87.2, GPFP: 113.30 Salary: $11,400)
This does feel like the kind of place where Justin Thomas could turn up and post a -25 winning score, and it’s a surprise that he hasn’t made the trip before.
A winner of the CJ CUP, CIMB Classic, the Tournament of Champions and Sony Open, all of which have a similar course profile to El Camaleon, such coastal conditions are very much in JT’s favor.
The slow greens won’t be an inconvenience either for an excellent putter, and remember this is a guy that has won on grainy greens all round the globe.
Three top-10s within his last four starts – including a solid solo fourth at The Masters – is pleasing on the eye, and as long as JT is motivated and fancies the job surely he is the most likely victor by some way before a ball is struck in Mexico.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 5th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 15th
- Approaches from 50-125 yards – 28th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Russell Henley (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 65.8, GPFP: 73.64 Salary: $9,300)
We’re going to go in top-heavy this week with another former Sony Open champion that thrives in this kind of set-up.
One of the best ball-strikers on the Tour in this mini season so far, Henley has banked five consecutive top-20 finishes including top-fives at the ZOZO Championship and CJ Cup.
We expected more from him, to be honest, at the RSM Classic, but a closing stretch of 67-66 on the weekend there suggests his form is holding.
If his putting improves – maybe the slower surfaces at El Camaleon will help his confidence – Henley has all the tools to prosper.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 9th
- Driving Accuracy – 10th
- Greens in Regulation – 10th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Adam Long (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 64.8, GPFP: 51.81 Salary: $7,800)
It’s been a progressive, positive couple of months for Adam Long, and given that he finished T2 here last years that’s very interesting indeed.
Dating back to T13 at the US Open, Long has enjoyed solo fifth at the Corales Puntacana, T11 at the Houston Open and a solid enough T30 last time out at the RSM Classic.
The reason is that these layouts play into his strengths. Long is something of a plodder who finds his competitive advantage in hitting fairways when others aren’t, and given the track record of winners in this event clearly that will be an aid this week as well.
If his improvement with his irons continues, Long can be a feature towards the summit of the leaderboard once more.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 37th
- Approaches from 100-125 yards – 76th
- Scoring Average – 79th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Vaughn Taylor (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 50.9, GPFP: 40.74 Salary: $7,100)
We always have Vaughn Taylor in mind for this kind of contest – he loves it on short courses on the coast, and so we shouldn’t be surprised that he showed signs of life at the RSM Classic.
Central to his improvement was a better ball-striking effort, so if those good vibes continue Taylor can shine once more.
An accurate GIR machine, the veteran is a winner at Pebble Beach that finished T2 here last year, so hopefully everything falls into place once more.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 34th
- Greens in Regulation – 43rd
- Approaches from 50-125 yards – 80th
Low-Tier Pick:
Andrew Putnam (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 45.8, GPFP: 36.62 Salary: $6,600)
While not completely glowing with praise, we should point out that in his last two closely correlating starts to the Mayakoba Classic, Putnam has finished T21 at the Bermuda Championship and T7 at the RSM Classic, where he closed with a 66.
It’s relevant because this short hitter has thrived at courses that suit his game, and for all the missed cuts – not a huge surprise for someone who struggles to drive the ball 290 yards – it shows that at shorter layouts he can thrive.
Comfortable in the wind and in birdie shootouts, as befitting a Barracuda Championship winner, Putman was solo second at the Sony Open last year, and how incredible would it be if he can match that here with a $6,600 salary.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 57th
- Scoring Average – 85th
- Greens in Regulation – 94th
Sleeper Pick for The 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic
Alex Noren (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 65.2, GPFP: 522.19 Salary: $7,900)
He’s a player that continually goes under the radar.
But there is a sense amongst many that Alex Noren will probably win on the PGA TOUR one day, and that will likely come in an event like this.
He’s a winner on the Links in Scotland, Wales and France, and so the wind won’t be an inconvenience, and he has the short game to convert any chances that he creates.
His iron play, on the whole, isn’t great but he showed considerable improvement last time out at the RSM Classic, which proved to be a continuation of his decent form and his third top-20 finish in his last five outings.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 70th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 71st
- Lowest Round – 84th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic
Brian Gay (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 52.8, GPFP: 42.26 Salary: $7,500)
Answers on a postcard as to why Brian Gay has been so overlooked by the sportsbooks this week despite winning in similar conditions just a matter of weeks ago.
You know the deal with Gay by now – if it’s short and windy he’s got a chance, as befitting a Texan whose best work comes in such conditions.
We can call the Bermuda Championship a lower grade event and that would be fair, but the veteran still had to make it happen and he did with four solid rounds including a Sunday 64.
A former winner in Mexico, Gay has performed solidly at El Camaleon too and can go well again this week.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 24th
- Total Driving Efficiency – 34th
- Putting Average – 36th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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