Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions
The 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions Fantasy Preview
Off we go then into a new year of PGA TOUR action.
The world may have changed somewhat in the past year, but the PGA TOUR schedule has taken on a more familiar look to it in the first quarter of 2021 and we get underway – in customary fashion – with the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
New year, new me – that’s the well-trodden resolution many make as January unfolds, and soon enough we will know which pros have actually taken that on board and been grinding away on the range during the festive period.
And things could not get off to a more relaxing start in Hawaii this week….
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Our last event was back in 2020 at the Mayakoba Classic, where we finished with a T3 from Adam Long and three T8 finishes coming from our Tuesday Sleeper Report out of 5 total picks.
Unfortunately, our horse pick, Justin Thomas, fell to T12.
New year, new you…so make sure to increase your fantasy winnings in 2021 by using our Golficity Premium Fantasy Prediction tool to narrow your picks by certain categories.
The 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions 2020 Field
As the name suggests, there is an invitational quality to the Sentry Tournament of Champions that revolves around those who got their hands on silverware during the 2019-20 season, and the 42-man field is reflective of that.
Masters champion Dustin Johnson will dust off the cobwebs at Kapalua in an event he has won twice in the past, and he will be joined by another two-time Tournament of Champions winner in Justin Thomas.
You suspect that Bryson DeChambeau will enjoy the wide open fairways at the Kapalua Resort, and he will be among the betting favorites alongside Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay and former winner Xander Schauffele.
Despite not winning anything, the likes of Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau have also muscled their way into the field alongside a raft of weird and wonderful champions in 2019-20 that includes Stewart Cink, Robert Streb and Hudson Swafford.
This Week’s Course Preview
What a way to ease your way into the new year than with a gentle stroll around the picturesque Kapalua resort in Maui, Hawaii.
This is the rarest of beasts – a Par 73 layout, albeit one that only has the standard four Par 5s supplemented by eleven Par 4s and a trio of Par 3s.
One of the most noticeable aspects of the real estate is its huge, wide open spaces. The fairways are so expansive that only the most errant of drives will miss the short stuff – although we should mention the wind, which can be a factor in that – plus the huge Bermuda greens.
Those surfaces run at a slowish 10.5 on the stimp, and so really there is very little in the way of hazards to worry about – not forgetting the Hawaiian breeze, of course.
The track is quite hilly in places and so there are elevation changes to consider, but otherwise it’s a happy resort style layout for the players to enjoy – aside from Thomas’ grind in the wind last year, the winning score is typically around the -23 mark with a couple of -30 wins in the ledger in the past!
Weather Forecast for Kapalua, HI
Given the wintry conditions engulfing much of the northern hemisphere right now, a trip to Hawaii will certainly be welcome.
The temperature will be a happy average of around the 78° mark, with sunny spells and the occasional cloud leading the way.
Any tournament in Hawaii has to have the wind considered, and once more we’re expecting a pretty stiff breeze to be in the offing. The early forecast suggests an introduction of 10-12 mph on Thursday and Friday, before ramping up to 15 mph over the weekend.
Last Year’s Results for the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions
A three-way playoff between Justin Thomas, Patrick Reed and defending champion Xander Schauffele was a fantastic way to start 2020.
It took three extra holes to separate them, with Schauffele dumped out after making a five at the Par 5 eighteenth.
Thomas and Reed then traded fives of their own, before a sublime approach from JT on the third extra time hole ultimately secured victory – his second in the Tournament of Champions.
He might have been a bit aggrieved not to complete the job in regulation play given that he carried a one-shot lead into the 72nd hole, but a bogey there allowed Schauffele and Reed, who closed out with a fine 66, to take their place in the playoff.
But Thomas was not to be denied….
Justin Thomas wins after tense playoff! | Round 4 | Sentry Tournament of Champions 2020
In the final round of the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions, Justin Thomas carded a 4-under 69 but bogeyed two of the last holes in regulation, dropping to 14-under for the tournament to force a playoff with Xander Schauffele and Patrick Reed.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions this Week
With a small field, there is little advantage to be gained over less analytical DFS gamers this week and so, with a heavy heart, we suggest taking it easy with your staking. Nevertheless, opportunity knocks for those entering these eye-catching contests.
- PGA $600k Season Tee-Off: This contest had a total prize pool of $300k a year ago, so if nothing else at least there’s plenty more cash on the table. The winner banks $200k and the top 70 players net at least $100 in this $10 entry, 70,000 player contest.
- PGA $15k Caddie: Big whales can cover huge swathes of this field with their mighty investment and multi-entries, and so one option is to stick to single entry events where possible. This example sees the top 22.5% of players double their money at least, with the lure of a $1,500 top prize.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions
Given the invitational nature of the event, it’s no surprise that quality operators have enjoyed a monopoly in the Tournament of Champions.
Thomas, Schauffele, Johnson (both D. and Z.), Spieth, Stricker….recent editions have been claimed by only the classiest of players.
And why not – it’s really all about iron play and putting at Kapalua, with driving distance almost an irrelevance despite the wide fairways. For reference, Thomas averaged 271 yards off the tee last year, and Reed a spectacularly short 259 yards.
With the huge greens, the GIR count will be high even with the wind factored in, and so proximity to the hole on approach – and holing a series of 5-10 ft putts – will be the difference-maker.
As ever in Hawaii, we’re looking for players comfortable in the breeze and happy putting on Bermuda, but this is an event where we expect the very best to thrive.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions
Top Tier Pick #1:
Justin Thomas (Odds: 7/1, FPPG: 87.2, GPFP: 113.30 Salary: $10,700)
There’s barely anything separating Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas at the head of the market, and the only reason we’ve opted for JT is that we expect he’s worked harder on his game over the winter break than DJ.
But there’s lots more to recommend Thomas as well, not least the fact that in five trips to Kapalua he has won twice and also finished third.
He’s a proven performer on Bermuda – that goes without saying given his trophy haul also includes the Sony Open and the Honda Classic, and you won’t find many players that are more comfortable in the wind and in birdie-friendly conditions than JT.
He’ll be hoping for a big year in 2021, with a major or two to add to his haul, but for now Thomas will be looking to start the new year in the best possible fashion.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 5th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 15th
- SG: Putting – 37th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Collin Morikawa (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 73.3, GPFP: 72.58 Salary: $8,800)
When iron play is at a premium, Collin Morikawa often springs to mind.
It’s always something of a surprise to see Morikawa listed in amongst the likes of Matsuyama and Hovland at a similar price point, because in the fullness of time we expect the PGA Championship winner to enjoy a career far beyond those other two mentioned – it’s worth cashing in at such a value salary now.
Morikawa lacks a touch of length off the tee, but he won’t be hampered by that here and instead can let his laser-like irons and wedges come to the party.
Putting is always the elephant in the room for the 23-year-old, but he’s actually not too bad in the 6ft range and that could be the key at Kapalua once more.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 20th
- SG: Approach – 35th
- Total Driving – 47th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Sungjae Im (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 71.8, GPFP: 68.93 Salary: $8,200)
If you had to make a critique of Sungjae Im’s game, you would suggest his inconsistent short game might be the thing that ultimately prevents him from becoming the best player in the world.
However, his ball striking has been excellent in 2020-21 so far, and that is the area that we expect to bring to bare the ultimate fruit this week.
Im is a proven performer in the wind and saves his best golf for Bermuda, and while this is his first crack at Kapalua we can expect a strong showing from him.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 19th
- SG: Approach – 59th
- Birdie Average – 62nd
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Marc Leishman (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 54.3, GPFP: 57.06 Salary: $7,400)
At such an agreeable price point, there will be plenty of takers for Marc Leishman this week but even chalky picks can deliver value too.
The Aussie had a torrid 2020 out on the course, but while there were obviously bigger headlines coming out of the event his T13 at the Masters should not be overlooked as a primer for better form.
Two top-10s at Kapalua are a handy guide as well, and you suspect that this is the kind of test that Leishman favors the best – windy, and where he can sheathe his often errant driver for much of the four days.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 175-200 yards – 26th
- Approaches from 125-150 yards – 30th
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 96th
Low-Tier Pick:
Brendon Todd (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 63.5, GPFP: 72.33 Salary: $7,200)
After a fallow period, Brendon Todd ended his 2020 with a top-10 finish in the Mayakoba Classic.
It was a welcome return to form for Todd, but not completely unexpected given that he had won there before, and when you factor in he’s a former Bermuda Championship winner we know he’s a proven horse in these windy, coastal tests.
Historically a lack of length off the tee hasn’t been too damaging at Kapalua, so we don’t have to write Todd off on those grounds, and instead we can revel in the opportunities that one of the best putters around should afford.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 8th
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 24th
- Birdie Average – 86th
Sleeper Pick for The 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions
Carlos Ortiz (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 63.1, GPFP: 76.40 Salary: $7,100)
It was a breakthrough year for Carlos Ortiz on the PGA TOUR, and the final few months of it were his very best.
The Mexican won the Houston Open in a stiff breeze and followed up with a top-10 in his home Mayakoba Classic, and so Ortiz heads into 2021 at the peak of his powers.
Can he mix it with the best in the business? Well, just take a look at that Houston Open leaderboard – Ortiz finished two shots clear of Matsuyama and some chap named Johnson, D. That’s impressive stuff.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 41st
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 48th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 51st
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The 2020 Sentry Tournament of Champions
Ryan Palmer (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 70.0, GPFP: 86.80 Salary: $7,000)
The weather report section in our previews is always an early guide, and of course the picture can change right up to the first tee.
So the wind could yet really pick up, as it did last year in this event when ten shots were shaved off the typical winning score here, and if it does Ryan Palmer could become a prime sleeper play.
The Texan is a proven performer in a breeze, and as a former Sony Open champion we know that the conditions in Hawaii suit him down to the ground.
Occasionally errant off the tee, Palmer will have plenty more real estate to work with here and that will allow him to get into more scoring opportunities.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 3rd
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 11th
- Driving Distance – 18th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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