Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2020 ZOZO Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the ZOZO Championship
The ZOZO Championship Fantasy Preview
And so the madness continues!
From a slew of winners who many thought their best days were behind them, along comes Jason Kokrak – a PGA TOUR maiden with just six top-5 finishes to his name from nine years at the top of the game – to win the invitational, high quality CJ Cup.
Maybe it’s proof that the big names aren’t quite at the top of their game right now, but the fact that Kokrak dueled with Russell Henley and (less surprisingly) Xander Schauffele at Shadow Creek suggests that, once again, making predictions as to who would win was something of a fool’s errand.
To be fair to Kokrak, he has at times looked like a quality performer who is likely to win on the PGA TOUR, and he did that in Vegas with an excellent final round of 64 that neither Henley nor Schauffele could match.
As ever, if you had lot of inside information – we’re talking a real ‘ear to the ground’ job – you might just have foreseen a strong performance incoming. Kokrak actually said afterwards that he had played Shadow Creek ‘north of 20 times’, which gave him an edge on most in the field, and as is often the way a switch to a 36-inch putter saw him rank first for SG: Putting for the first time in his career. It’s a lesson learned that, occasionally, the clues are out there when trying to solve the puzzle of who might win.
This week it’s off to California for the ZOZO Championship, which understandably has been moved from its normal Japanese home due to COVID-19, and if you are growing tired of these repatriated Asian Swing events fear not – next week we have the Bermuda Championship, and then after that all roads lead to Augusta as the warm-up event, the Houston Open, is followed by The Masters.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Rahm-bo was our top guy last week at Shadow. The Spaniard finished T17 and our other studs for the week were Morikawa (T12) and Cameron Smith (T11).
The Sleeper Report produced 3 top 11s out of 5 picks including Bubba Watson (T7), Joaquin Niemann (6th) and Ian Poulter (T11).
The ZOZO Championship 2020 Field
You could pretty much hold up a mirror to the CJ Cup field when analyzing who will tee it up at the Sherwood Country Club this week, with a few notable exceptions.
Dustin Johnson, who holds the course record here and whose father-in-law to be, Wayne Gretzky, is a member, is a late withdrawal following his COVID-19 test.
Elsewhere, Tiger Woods makes his anticipated return to Tour life at a venue where he used to host the World Challenge – he has an excellent record at this layout.
Otherwise, it’s the same big guns who headed to Vegas, with Rory, Justin Thomas, Rahm, Schauffele, Morikawa and Reed taking headline honors.
Additionally, the invitational criteria for the ZOZO Championship mean that a number of leading pros from the Japan Golf Tour – notably Ryo Ishikawa and Shugo Imahira – and from the other Asian Tours will also be in town.
This Week’s Course Preview
Golf fans with long memories may just remember Sherwood Country Club from its time hosting the World Challenge between 2000-2013.
This gorgeous slab of real estate just outside the city of Thousand Oaks, California was designed by Jack Nicklaus, who also gave the layout something of a makeover in 2015 to ensure it meets the rigors of the modern game.
At 7,020 yards for its Par 72, Sherwood is mega short and features the unique routing of five Par 3s and a quintet of Par 5s – organizers may yet decide to map the course slightly differently and drop one of those Par 5s to a Par 4.
Thousand Oaks is a name that is descriptive in more ways than one, because while Sherwood CC isn’t tree-lined like an Augusta it still has plenty of trees in full bloom lining the fairways, and they will of course dictate that shot shaping and course management will be key.
The large Bentgrass greens have been overseeded with Poa Annua, and should run pretty pure this week.
The key defenses of Sherwood Country Club are the lakes and streams which line the fairways of a number of holes, and there are some rather stark elevation changes from tee box to fairways and from fairway to green that will require accurate club selection and a pure strike of the ball.
For reference, Dustin Johnson holds the course record here at 61, which suggests that Sherwood is a course that can be got at when the conditions suit.
Weather Forecast for Thousand Oaks, CA
There’s a unique twist to the weather in Thousand Oaks this week.
On the face of it, this is your typically Fall week in California, with sunny spells matched by pleasant if not hot temperatures of around 64-72°.
But here’s the thing: there looks set to be a real AM/PM split on all four days of the events. Frist thing in the morning, the temperature is low but also the wind is gentle and calm too, with speeds of up to 5 mph the harshest the AM wave are likely to experience.
In the PM, the temperature increases – that will please the players – but so too does the wind, with 10-13 mph expected in the afternoon.
Of course, this is a 78-man tournament and so the morning/afternoon splits won’t be as stark, but it’s worth noting nonetheless.
Last Year’s Results for the ZOZO Championship
Perhaps it as fitting that the 2019 ZOZO Championship, the first PGA TOUR event ever to be played on Japanese soil, was won by arguably the best there ever was.
Tiger Woods levelled Sam Snead’s all-time title haul with 82 after outlasting the field at Narashino GC – and that was despite the incredible stat that he bogeyed his first three holes played on the Thursday!
It helps that he birdied nine of the next fifteen to share the first round lead with Gary Woodland, and he maintained his lead throughout – despite the frustration of having to finish on Monday after darkness brought a premature end to Sunday’s play.
Woods finished three clear of local favorite Hideki Matsuyama, who played his last eight holes in -3 to give the Japanese crowd a huge buzz.
No Title
Every shot from Tiger Woods’ 5 birdies and 2 bogeys in the final round of the 2019 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. Woods tied Sam Snead for most victories all time with his 82nd PGA TOUR win, a 3-shot triumph over Hideki Matsuyama.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the ZOZO Championship this Week
Even though 78-man invitational fields are not where DFS golf dreams are made, that’s not to say that opportunity doesn’t await those drafting a few line-ups and sprinkling them into these big-hitting contests.
- PGA $250k Club Twirl: To give you a flavor of the evolution and progress of DFS golf, this Club Twirl contest had a $50k prize kitty – look at it now! For a $44 entry, you will get your shot at a $50k top prize and the chance to more than double your money for finishing inside the top-500.
- PGA $500k Resurgence: 100,000 big ones….that’s the jackpot on offer in this $10 contest, and somebody has to win it so why not you? Besides, you can’t get much for $10 these days and if you finish inside the top 25% of players, approximately, you will win a payout.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the ZOZO Championship
Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson, Graeme McDowell, Vijay Singh, Davis Love III.
Those are just some of the winners at Sherwood Country Club, and straight off the bat it reveals that length is not completely vital this week.
It’s fun, because the routing of the course gives even shorter guys a chance to attack the Par 5s in two, and so the advantage that the bombers has is negated somewhat – this is a nice and open tournament that all can thrive in.
Aside from the usual yardsticks – this is Californian golf, so form on Bentgrass/Poa Annua on the west coast is helpful, there is a clear emphasis on ball striking this week….as you would expect from a Jack Nicklaus layout.
Errant tee shots will be gobbled up by the trees and rough, while there is water in play on a number of holes too. Elevation changes will also catch some out too.
And there should a premium on approach play. The greens are so large that they feature a number of different quadrants, and finding the right section to feed towards the hole or at least avoid a lengthy two putt for par will be key.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the ZOZO Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The ZOZO Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Collin Morikawa (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 73.5, GPFP: 58.82 Salary: $9,800)
Take a look at the players at the top of the market this week and immediately we see opportunities for those slightly further down the pecking order to thrive.
Dustin Johnson has withdrawn due to the COVID-19 safety protocol, while last week nobody could say with any conviction that McIlroy, Rahm and Thomas played with any consistency, while Xander Schauffele’s scrambling game may not get its full reward at a layout with such huge greens.
We drafted Collin Morikawa for the CJ Cup and he kind of did what we expected: namely, hit some majestic iron shots and give himself plenty of birdie looks. Sadly, his flat stick was ice cold.
But you suspect that patience is the key with guys like Morikawa, because he will continue to knock on the door of excellence the way he hits his irons, and further persuasion to keep the faith comes in the fact that, since golf’s restart, he’s won the PGA Championship and the Workday Charity Open – and finished second at the Charles Schwab Challenge – all on Bentgrass/Poa greens.
Key Stats (2019-20):
- SG: Approach – 2nd
- Scoring Average – 15th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 19th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Bubba Watson (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 60.7, GPFP: 70.38 Salary: $8,700)
Here’s a bold statement but one backed by the stats: Bubba Watson is striking the ball as well as he has ever done right now.
He ranked second for our adjusted ball-striking metric at the CJ Cup on his way to T7, and that is the third time in his last six outings that Bubba has excelled from tee-to-green.
We’re now waiting for his putting to catch up, but one of the happy coincidences is that Sherwood CC is a ‘Bubba course’, i.e. a venue where this archetypal course horse has played well before with three top-10 finishes in the World Challenge.
With The Masters around the corner, there’s no time like the present as far as Bubba is concerned.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 7th
- SG: Approach – 8th
- Scoring Average – 15th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Russell Henley (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 63.9, GPFP: 69.66 Salary: $8,100)
Ranking sixth in our adjusted SG: Ball Striking stat and second for SG: Putting, it’s little wonder that Russell Henley performed so well at the CJ Cup.
In the end, he threw away a three-shot lead to finish T3, but he must take the positives of his best showing in years in Vegas.
To be honest, Henley’s tee-to-green has been in fine fettle for some time now, and curiously it’s his putting – he was once a top-10 player on the PGA TOUR with the flat stick – that has been absent.
Considerable improvements were made on that front last week, and so the scene is set for another fine performance in California.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 14th
- SG: Putting – 21st
- SG: Approach – 28th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Brendon Todd (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 65.8, GPFP: 73.04 Salary: $7,000)
One of the features of Brendon Todd’s renaissance has been his ability to put in strong performances pretty much across the board, at courses of varying lengths and characteristics.
But when conditions are truly in his favor, as a pretty short hitter by modern standards, then that’s where we expect him to thrive.
The harder the better as far as Todd is concerned – he banked top-25s at both the U.S. Open and PGA Championship, plus T8 at the BMW Championship….all of which were events where making par was key.
We’re not saying Sherwood CC will be overly tough, but historically it has provided something of a test to the best players in the world.
Key Stats (2019-20):
- SG: Putting – 9th
- Scoring Average – 26th
- Approaches from 50-75 yards – 39th
Low-Tier Pick:
Kevin Streelman (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 57.3, GPFP: 72.17 Salary: $6,600)
There is something of a misconception that you have to be an explosive bomber to really take golf courses apart, but the reality is that’s not always the case.
When you are a neat and tidy GIR machine you can create countless birdie opportunities for yourself, and while Kevin Streelman is not a name that gets golfing housewives hot under the blouse he can still take care of business.
Solo second at the Travelers Championship and T3 at the Safeway Open, both of which required super-low scoring, Streelman can excel even in good company and especially so at a layout where the big hitters don’t have a huge competitive advantage.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 32nd
- SG: Putting – 53rd
- Approaches from 50-125 yards – 78th
Sleeper Pick for The ZOZO Championship
Talor Gooch (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 60.8, GPFP: 48.57 Salary: $7,100)
There was a funny incident last week for the CJ Cup where one of the leading UK bookmakers released their odds and mistakenly priced Talor Gooch at 45/1 instead of 120/1 – more embarrassingly for the industry, many also priced him the same, proving that some sportsbooks are nothing but ‘copy and paste’ merchants.
Anyway, it’s a funny aside given that Gooch finished solo fifth at Shadow Creek, which would have secured each way backers at either price a handsome return.
Incidentally, Sherwood CC should suit Gooch’s game too given that he’s comfortable in the west and has a tidy approach game, and so perhaps his price should be a lot shorter than 110/1 given what we saw last week?
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 25th
- Greens in Regulation – 38th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 51st
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The ZOZO Championship
Harry Higgs (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 59.7, GPFP: 51.95 Salary: $6,700)
When we talk about bargain basement sleeper picks, really we’re looking for those guys who perform to a level that is far greater than the sum of their parts.
Harry Higgs fits the bill, because – on paper at least – there is nothing flash about his game, but from these affordable prices he has served up followers a pair of solo second finishes in his first full season on the PGA TOUR and five other top-25s.
The Texan is an excellent driver of the ball and a solid putter, and if he gets on a roll this week – as he threatened to at the CJ Cup – then Higgs will surely make a mockery of this salary position.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 50-75 yards – 14th
- Total Driving – 26th
- SG: Putting – 89th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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