Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational
The 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Fantasy Preview
It’s only in the years to come when we will truly know how good Collin Morikawa is or can be.
But with four PGA TOUR titles to his name already, including a major and the high-quality WGC-Workday which he secured on Sunday, and it’s clear that this is a player with an astonishing future.
He’s a grinder too, heading out onto the putting green with mark O’Meara this past week to work on his slightly buggy ‘saw’ grip, and whatever the veteran said seemed to work – Morikawa was much more reliable on the greens, which allied to his always-excellent ball striking was very much a winning formula.
In the end, he won by three strokes from Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland and Billy Horschel, never once looking likely to relinquish his lead in a final round in which he posted four birdies and one bogey.
Let’s stick a pin in The Concession too – a course that lived up to the hype and that could be a regular PGA TOUR stop in the future.
From one slice of Florida golfing real estate to another, it’s of to the Bay Hill club this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
It’s great to be back in the winner’s circle this week with our Morikawa pick! In case you missed last week’s segment, we were hot on Collin coming into Concession.
Here’s what we had to say about Morikowa last week:
‘He did well to rally to make the cut then, and while he didn’t press on from there don’t overlook his performance – particularly in the ball striking department, a Morikawa trademark, where he led the field according to our adjusted rankings.
The look of The Concession suggests that iron players will come to the fore – finding the right portion of these greens, and avoiding the sand, will presumably be vital, and as ever in such cases Morikawa finds himself towards the top of our shortlist.’
Nothing makes us happier than posting another one in the win column as we start to head into March with some big money contests right around the corner!
The 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Field
It may be an invitational and come a week prior to the PLAYERS Championship, but Arnie has every right to feel aggrieved by an absence of big names this week at the tournament that bears his name.
Rory McIlroy is the obvious standout – he loves it at Bay Hill, while Patrick Reed and Bryson DeChambeau, plus defending champion Tyrrell Hatton, add the muscle at the head of the market.
But there’s a lack of star names, you have to surmise disappointingly, at an event that has typically attracted the best in the business. There’s Viktor Hovland – he’s in tremendous form, as well as Sungjae Im, Paul Casey, Matt Fitzpatrick and a seemingly revitalized Jordan Spieth.
The rollcall of former Arnold Palmer Invitational winners teeing it up in Orlando this week includes Jason Day, Marc Leishman, Francesco Molinari and the former back-to-back Bay Hill champion Matt Every.
This Week’s Course Preview
Just how hard the wind blows largely dictates how Bay Hill plays – in 2020, Tyrrell Hatton ground out a -4 winning score in a zephyr, whereas back in 2018 it was serene progress for McIlroy in his -18 winning effort.
That said, danger does lurk on this Arnie design, with some sticky rough – even tougher when wet – lining what are, in many cases, doglegging fairways.
While keeping your ball in play off the tee is not necessarily a pre-requisite for success here, finding stacks of greens in regulation is. In fairness, the putting surfaces are on the large side at Bay Hill, but the Bermuda is cut nice and slick to ensure a decent amount of carry.
There’s extensive bunkering and planet of water to find too, with half of the holes on the layout troubled by a lake or two.
The character of the course is worth noting too. The four Par 5s are all there for the taking, and most players in the field will fancy their chances of having an eagle putt more often than not.
But then, conversely, the Par 3s are considerable – averaging more than 215 yards in fact, and so those comfortable hitting the longest of irons should thrive this week.
At 7,454 yards for its Par 72, Bay Hill certainly packs a punch in many ways, and is arguably the finest of Arnold Palmer’s design efforts.
Weather Forecast for Orlando, FL
The weather in Orlando can be pretty changeable at this time of year, and that appears to be the case in the forecast for the week ahead once more.
There’s rain in the early going on Tuesday and Wednesday, and only time will tell if that is heavy enough to have any real impact on the condition of the course.
According to those early predictions, Thursday and Friday should be sunny and warm enough at around 75˚F. The threat of further showers is, mercifully, low.
Sadly, things could take a turn for the worse over the weekend, with lower temperatures and rain looking a possibility on Saturday – an 80% chance suggests we should be fearing the worst.
Sunday should at least be drier, but it will be pretty cool when the winner lifts their trophy….
Last Year’s Results for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
In horrendous weather conditions, it was two Europeans who were left fighting the good fight on a blustery Sunday.
Tyrrell Hatton had been prominent on the leaderboard throughout the week, and he was still standing tall on the Sunday – how would he fare in the gale?
Only Matt Fitzpatrick really shone – his 69 was the only round under 70, and that fired him into contention. But Hatton did what you’re supposed to do when things are tough; he made par, and lots of them.
Seven in a row, in fact, to cap a supremely mature performance from a boisterous young player with the occasionally short temper.
For context with regards to the weather, just four players finished the tournament under par – the lowest number at the event since 1980.
Tyrrell Hatton’s Round 4 highlights from Arnold Palmer 2020
In the final round of the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, Tyrrell Hatton earned his first-career victory after leading the field at 4-under par. SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Francesco Molinari returns to Bay Hill to defend his title at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Arnold Palmer Invitational this Week
It’s a classic, longstanding event, but the field for the Arnold Palmer Invitational is slightly disappointing considering the great man lends his name to it. Nevertheless, medium strength field events at premium golf courses tend to be prime fodder for savvy DFS gamers!
- PGA $800k Flop Shot: With a ‘scrubs and studs’ style line-up readily available this week given the salaries, it feels like a fantastic opportunity to attack a big money contest – this $15 entry game, with a top prize of $200k fits the bill.
- PGA $300k Drive the Green: And again, the big money vibe continues with this contest, where your $5 entry could be turned into $50k if you outmanoeuvre the field.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Hatton, Molinari, McIlroy, Leishman, Day.
Those are the last five winners at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and you may notice some things they have in common. Firstly, three are major champions, one could have been and the other may just win a ‘biggie’ in the future.
Secondly, none of them are American. The European angle works because they tend to be more comfortable on Bermuda, and the adverse weather tends to affect them less. Conversely, when it is warm and dry, Bay Hill can play pretty quickly – that’s when the Australians often come to the fore.
What’s interesting about Bay Hill is that it is a less than driver off the tee for many, however there is still a need to hit some pretty demanding 200+ yard approaches, and that is certainly an angle to consider.
Many shots are troubled by the potential of taking a dunk in sand or water, and so accurate ball striking really should come to the fore – given the size of the greens, there will surely be little opportunity for the classy chippers to unfurl their wedges.
As for putting, you’re looking for those comfortable on Bermuda, and given the wind there will surely be lots of 20ft plus putts to be made – sinking a few of those will certainly help.
Otherwise, some prevalent shortlisting variables would include comfort on the east and on the Florida Swing, an ability to flight drives both ways but under the wind, and an ability to prevail in an event that has been the sole preserve of classy operators in recent years.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Top Tier Pick #1:
Rory McIlroy (Odds: 10/1, FPPG: 82.3, GPGP: 103.67 Salary: $11,500)
He may be a bit of a tournament jolly at Bay Hill, but that’s not to say that Rory McIlroy doesn’t represent value – with your top-tier pick you want to be backing classy winners in the making.
Few enjoy the surroundings at this layout quite like the Irishman. In six consecutive trips, he’s finished no lower than T27, picking up a win in 2018 plus a trio of top-six finished in that period.
Naturally then, McIlroy is always likely to be high up on the shortlist at Bay Hill, and particularly so when his form is good. He gained strokes on the field in all departments at The Concession, and while he couldn’t nudge into the frame for victory that run-out served as an excellent warm up.
He speaks with such reverence about Arnold Palmer and this event, so you know Rory will be tuned in – remember, it’s been a while since he won by his own impeccable standards, and the Irishman will be looking to right that wrong this week.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 3rd
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 12th
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 33rd
Top Tier Pick #2:
Matt Fitzpatrick (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 62.9, GPGP: 50.31 Salary: $9,800)
It’s surprising that Matt Fitzpatrick hasn’t opened his PGA TOUR win account as yet.
He’s already notched six titles on the European Tour, and while knocking on the door Stateside he hasn’t quite gotten over the line. Bay Hill, you suspect, is as likely a destination as any for that to happen.
His low, bullet-like ball flight gets him below the wind, and he is particularly effective from 200 yards out – an essential component at this layout.
With two top-10s and a T13 at Bay Hill, you know that Fitzpatrick loves it here, and in finishing T5 at the Genesis and T11 at the WGC last week you know he has the confidence to take care of business.
Key Stats:
- Putting from > 20ft – 18th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 27th
- Birdie Average – 44th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Cameron Davis (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 81.3, GPGP: 65.04 Salary: $7,900)
This young man has been hugely impressive at times this season, and all the signs suggest that Cameron Davis can become a major player on the PGA TOUR.
Top-10s at the Sanderson Farms and the American Express have been backed by a T14 at Pebble Beach, and while that may not sound like ‘elite’ form, at times both the Aussie’s ball striking and short game have been exemplary.
The reason he appeals at Bay Hill, where he makes his debut this week, is that he has the all-round game to thrive, hitting lots of GIR and making plenty of long range putts into the bargain.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 15th
- Birdie Average – 20th
- SG: Approach – 45th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Lanto Griffin (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 65.8, GPGP: 52.66 Salary: $7,700)
Given his obvious strengths – ranking 22nd for SG: Putting and 24th for SG: Approach – and weaknesses – SG: Around-the-Green rank of 205th, it’s tracks like Bay Hill with their large putting surfaces where Lanto Griffin should come alive.
He played solid enough on debut (T36) and has clear scope for improvement given his solid form, which shows four finishes of T26 or better in his last six starts.
An excellent wind player, Griffin has the perfect game for Bay Hill – let’s see if he can make it count this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 22nd
- SG: Approach – 24th
- Scoring Average – 59th
Low-Tier Pick:
Sebastian Munoz (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 65.9, GPGP: 52.70 Salary: $6,700)
He’s considered nothing more than an also-ran by the sportsbooks, but Sebastian Munoz is much more than that.
Bay Hill is a course that suits his natural game, with his long flowing approaches the absolute standout of his arsenal, and again it’s his low ball flight in the wind that can make a real difference.
There is a progressive nature to Munoz’s form too, with T22 at the WGC the best he has served up in a while – lest we forget he was top-20 at The Masters too.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 42nd
- Birdie Average – 50th
- SG: Approach – 77th
Sleeper Pick for The 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Matthew NeSmith (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 65.4, GPGP: 52.34 Salary: $6,900)
While he is yet to give the impression that he’s ready to win on the PGA TOUR, Matthew NeSmith’s consistency of late has been truly outstanding.
A trio of top-20s at the Phoenix Open, Pebble Beach and Genesis set the scene nicely, and now we wait to see if he can replicate that West Coast form in Florida.
There’s no reason why not. NeSmith’s game is not built on putting well on particular surfaces – he is a premium ball striker, which tends to travel from coast to coast and hints at more good form to come.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 1st
- SG: Approach – 9th
- Scoring Average – 52nd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Kyle Stanley (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 62.8, Salary: GPGP: 50.25 $6,500)
While his recent results only hint at such, Kyle Stanley is striking the ball beautifully at the minute.
In his last five starts, he has finished between T18 and T39 – no higher or lower – and that runs includes some efforts in good company at the Farmers and the Genesis.
At his best, Stanley is a classy ball-striker who will get his ball to the green in good order this week, and while putting remains a dark art to him there’s no way you can record five consecutive top-40s on the PGA TOUR without some confidence with the flat stick.
With three top-20s in his last four trips to Bay Hill, Arnie’s garden seems to suit too.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 25th
- Greens in Regulation – 29th
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 38th
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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