Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Fantasy Preview

Guess who’s back, back again!?

For large swathes of the Waste Management Phoenix Open it looked as if Jordan Spieth was heading for the ultimate golfing redemption as he led the way in Arizona.

However, it was not to be as another forgotten star – Brooks Koepka – served up a reminder that a man of his standing should not be starting golf tournaments as a 40/1 also-ran at the sportsbooks.

When the winner’s enclosure is in sight, some players politely knock and ask to be let in while others smash the door down, and Koepka certainly falls into that latter category.

While Spieth and fellow 54-hole leader Xander Schauffele were playing some good golf, they were missing fairways (Spieth) and greens (Schauffele) in abundance, and the door was ajar for somebody to bust through – Koepka needed no second invitation, with a birdie-laden back nine that also included a chip-in eagle.

With playing partner James Hahn, at one point the clear leader, buckling under the pressure, Brooks asserted his major pedigree and posted the clubhouse lead of -19 – which neither Spieth nor Schauffele, with more hapless driving, could reach.

It’s the eighth PGA TOUR title of Koepka’s career, his fourth non-major win and confirmation that his knee problems are firmly in the past. He will surely be a big player during major season this year.

Onwards we march and it’s back to the West Coast for the AT&T Pebble Beach, which will play out in slightly different circumstances in 2021 than normal.

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Last Week’s Fantasy Results

We stayed on the Rahm train because the guy just keeps impressing us with his Top 15 finishes EVERY WEEK.  Although he landed at T13, Rahm didn’t live up to the all the Sunday hype.

Rahm’s four rounds in the 60’s simply weren’t enough to contend with Brooks’ surging Sunday.

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The 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Field

It’s always a bit of a lottery as to what quality of field tees up at Pebble Beach.

You suspect the pro-am format is a bit of a turn off for many, with the long rounds of trying to help Bill Murray find his ball in the rough, and so this is typically one of the weaker mainstream tournaments on the schedule.

This year….it’s pretty much business as usual. Dustin Johnson, fresh from his customary showing in the Saudi International on the European Tour, loves it here and barely misses a stop-off, while Patrick Cantlay is another who is a consistent presence in California.

And then….well. You’ve got the potentially rejuvenated Jordan Spieth, a former champion here, and the venerable king of Pebble Beach in Phil Mickelson, he’s another master of the Links here.

There’s plenty of talent to admire this week – Paul Casey, Daniel Berger, Jason Day, Will Zalatoris etc – but it’s not the most sexy of fields you’ll see on the PGA TOUR.

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This Week’s Course Preview

Normally, the AT&T Pebble Beach is played in the pro-am style with three courses on the rotation. However, for 2021 only (perhaps), Monterey Shore has been kicked to the curb.

Instead, there will be three rounds played on the Pebble Beach course, which is certainly the most interesting of the trio and routinely the most difficult too.

This track feature tiny greens, which when buffeted with high winds makes approach play pretty difficult indeed. Although short at 6,816 yards for its Par 72, the players will be hitting lots of woods and irons off the tee and so its smallness is mitigated somewhat.

The greens, Poa Annua, are pretty sluggish and so it’s no surprise that those running with a hot hand with the flat stick have triumphed here – how else can you explain a rollcall of winners that includes the likes of Nick Taylor, Ted Potter Jr and Vaughn Taylor?

While Pebble Beach is exposed to the elements, Spyglass Hill – which will host one of the opening two rounds – is less slightly less so given that it is home to plenty of trees and based inland.

This is another short Par 72 with Poa Annua greens that typically throws up lower scoring, so keep your eyes peeled to the weather forecast for any possible draw bias.

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Weather Forecast for Monterey, CA

It’s a pretty horrendous week in store for the players.

According to the forecast, the mercury won’t rise beyond 57˚F all week long, which is a pretty horrendous environment – as a reference point, it was 78˚F in Saudi Arabia where DJ was last week.

The low temperatures could be matched by rain too if the early predictions are to be believed. Thursday and Sunday in particularly look set to be the wettest, and cold, rainy golf is hardly the stuff of dreams for anybody involved.

Are you ready for the icing on the cake? The wind will be up, as you would expect, and a breeze of up to 17mph really will separate those who fancy the job and those who don’t.

MONTEREY WEATHER

Last Year’s Results for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Having been paired with Phil Mickelson for the final round in challenging conditions, most expected Nick Taylor – without a win on Tour in six years – to crumble.

But it was Lefty, not the Canadian, who felt the pressure, and his final effort of 74 was never likely to get the job done – playing the back nine in +2 was never going to see Mickelson home.

Taylor, meanwhile, was making a decent fist of things and played the front nine in -4, but as the winning line came into view so too did the jitters – bogeys at 11 and 12 and a double at 14 threatened to derail his efforts.

Kevin Streelman was threatening with three birdies in his last five holes, but Taylor stayed straight and true and with birdies at 15 and 17 he clinched a second PGA TOUR title in fine style.

Nick Taylor shoots 2-under 70 | Round 4 | AT&T Pebble Beach 2020

In the final round of the 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Nick Taylor carded a 2-under 70 to finish at 19-under for the tournament, good enough for a wire-to-wire win for his second victory of his PGA TOUR career.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this Week

This is a weak field event, relatively speaking, and so it would take a brave soul to really go big with their gaming this week. That said, there is value to be had in the following contests:

• PGA $200k Drive the Green: Given the weather forecast it might be wise to keep it simple this week, and so buying in to this $200k for just $5 a turn offers plenty of upside – the top 20% of players will cash, and the winner will bank $50k.
• PGA $800k Flop Shot: And again, let’s keep it simple by buying in as many times as you like in this $15 entry contest which promises a whopping $200k top prize and a minimum of $100 for the top 145 players.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Normally, the emphasis at Pebble Beach is on fun, frivolity and birdies in abundance.

But there’s certainly change in the air this time around with the Pebble Beach course itself playing host to 54 holes. This is a former U.S. Open venue, remember, which gives an indication of how difficult things can get around this stretch.

There could be an interesting dichotomy at play. Normally, with the wind and the greens small in size, the GIR count would be lower than the average at Pebble Beach, and so those with classy short games would be expected to thrive.

However, if the rain is heavy enough to soften the greens then those with laser-like approaches are going to enjoy a significant advantage as they will have a great chance of knocking it close and, presumably, creating plenty of birdie opportunities.

Pebble Beach is a less-than-driver layout too, for context Phil Mickelson averaged just 296 yards off the tee and Maverick McNealy, in T5, just 283 yards. Keeping tee shots in play to attack these greens from is key.

Otherwise, it’s your usual Pebble Beach staples – West Coast golf, Poa Annua greens, high winds – that are used to shortlist potential draft picks, because there’s little to say about Spyglass Hill, a track that all pros will enjoy.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)

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