Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge
The 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge Fantasy Preview
Sometimes, golf leaves you speechless – simply unable to explain what you have just witnessed.
In April 2019, scores of golf fans followed Tiger Woods down the eighteenth fairway at Augusta National – scarcely believing that this legend of the game, his body pretty much mangled back together by surgeons, was about to win the green jacket once again.
While the scenes that were played out on the 72nd hole were on a smaller scale, there was a similar sense of incredulity as Phil Mickelson – mobbed by the patrons – effortlessly glided to his sixth major win; in the process, becoming the oldest player in history to land a biggie.
The fact that Lefty was able to serenely clinch victory in testing conditions against a young phenom like Brooks Koepka was testament not only to his obvious skill but his work ethic – this is a laidback dude that, inside at least, is still gunning hard for trophies.
When the lead flip-flopped from Phil to Brooks on the opening hole on Sunday, most thought that was that – Koepka was set to land another major in his already stellar young career.
But Mickelson had other ideas, and he showed the benefit of experience – and hitting bombs off the tee – as he reeled in Koepka and then accelerated away to the finishing line.
What odds now on Phil completing the career grand slam at next month’s U.S. Open, to be played at his ‘home’ course at Torrey Pines?
There’s plenty of golf in-between times, of course, starting with this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge at the Colonial Country Club in Texas.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Rough week for us with our top guy JT falling victim to the cut line.
Our best finish was a handful of T8s with Finau, Ancer, and the young Zelatoris, who remains hot in Major tournaments.
The 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge Field
At the time of writing, Phil Mickelson is declared in the field for the Charles Schwab Challenge, and while it would be unlikely if he does tee it up what better way to celebrate his PGA Championship success than by winning again?
If he is to achieve that, he’ll have to overcome a field studded with young bucks desperate to add a trophy to their cabinet. Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Reed and Abraham Ancer are just some of the names standing in his way.
The defending champion, Daniel Berger, will look to retain the honor he claimed in June, and his old buddy Jordan Spieth may have something to say about that – a former winner at Colonial, he also has five other top-10 finishes in his eight trips to the venue thus far.
An intriguing supporting cast – Finau, Scheffler, Zalatoris, Niemann, Rose, Conners – ensures that the Charles Schwab Challenge is much more than a post-major blues kinda week.
This Week’s Course Preview
Something of a favorite with the players, Colonial Country Club is a golf course that rewards classic ball-striking – thus, it’s not for everyone.
But ‘Hogan’s Alley’, as it has become known, has served up a variety of champions which includes Berger, Spieth, Kevin Na and Justin Rose, and it would be fair to say that each of those players exhibits excellence when approaching greens or finding a way to make a score from around them.
The ‘skill over brutality’ aesthetic is enhanced by the fact that there’s just two Par 5s on this Par 70 track which measures 7,204 yards, and with rough best avoided again the emphasis is on placement over power.
Colonial features thick tree-lines and acute doglegs, so the ability to shape the ball off the tee is welcome, while the Bentgrass greens are on the small side – nevertheless, they are fairly receptive to high-pitched approaches.
Water is in play on six holes and there’s stacks of bunkers too, so while Colonial is not a major-standard test it still does offer a decent challenge to the best in the world.
Weather Forecast for Fort Worth, TX
There’s a typically Texan weather forecast in the offing this week, with sunshine and rain showers both prevalent in the predictions.
Scattered thunderstorms have been mentioned for Monday and Tuesday and then, perhaps more pertinently, on Friday and Saturday too – but, as ever, when and if the wet stuff falls from the sky is difficult to predict exactly.
Otherwise, it looks set to be a really warm week in Forth Worth, and with the mercury set to hit 86˚F when the sun is out the players will certainly feel the heat on their backs.
It can be windy in these parts, and while Thursday could be hit with 14mph blasts after that the rest of the week looks relatively benign on the wind front – famous last words!
Last Year’s Results from the Charles Schwab Challenge
The Charles Schwab Challenge was tasked with being the first event back after the Covid-19 hiatus last June, and what a treat was served up.
Two young studs – Daniel Berger and Collin Morikawa – locked horns in a playoff after finishing tied on -15 during regulation play.
Berger had shot 66 on Sunday – including a birdie at the 72nd hole – to force his way into a shootout with the subsequent PGA Championship winner.
And it was Morikawa who blinked, bogeying the first extra hole to hand Berger his third PGA TOUR victory and his first in three years.
Daniel Berger shoots 4-under 66 | Round 4 | Charles Schwab Challenge
In the final round of the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, Daniel Berger carded a 4-under 66 to get to 15-under for the tournament before defeating Collin Morikawa in a one-hole playoff, claiming his third-career PGA TOUR win. SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Welcome to the official YouTube channel of the PGA TOUR.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Charles Schwab Challenge this Week
Colonial is just one of those golf courses that DFS gamers can feel really confident about – a tried-and-tested layout that has rewarded similar types of player year after year. We can invest with some bullishness this week.
- PGA $750k Flop Shot: There’s a real opportunity to build a quality roster this week, and with maybe 12 or 13 players holding genuine appeal lining up your tanks in a multi-entry contest has some value. The champion is rewarded with $200k.
- PGA $200k Driver: With beloved golf courses comes the opportunity to really spread our wings with the types of contest that we enter, and with some decent options lower down the salary listing (more on that later) we can pick a prime ‘one and done’ style line-up with which to tackle this single entry contest – the winner banks $50k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge
Some weeks require unadulterated brawn, and others call for smarts and strategy.
The challenge presented by Colonial falls into the latter category, and so already we have a decent idea of who we want to be drafting straight off the bat.
You’ll want to watch the weather and see how much rain falls between now and Thursday’s first tee, but the emphasis will – as tends to be the case at this layout – be on iron play.
If the greens are softened by the rain, then hitting approaches close to the flag will become an easier task, but if they aren’t then you will still need to draft those players who can hold these small greens rather than face chipping onto them.
Given the doglegging nature of some holes, there may be a requirement to hit some approaches out of the rough stuff – that is an okay strategy where misses are made in the right places.
In the absence of rain, these Bentgrass greens will run fairly swiftly, and so there will be plenty of mid and short-range putts to be made at speeds that suit some more than others.
The rough tends to be thick and difficult to play from too, and given that the greens are small we really need our picks to be approaching from the short grass more often than not.
We’re expecting mid-teens under par to win the day at the Charles Schwab Challenge, so any players you draft have to have the game to get to such a score even if the wind blows hard in Texas.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge
Top Tier Pick #1:
Collin Morikawa (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 74.2, GPFP: 60.83 Salary: $10,500)
In tough conditions, Collin Morikawa put in a valiant defense of his PGA Championship title, and his top-10 finish was an excellent effort.
That was powered by a sublime ball-striking performance, and if Morikawa takes those attributes to Colonial – featuring the same greens where he nearly putted his way to the title in June – then the signs are very good indeed.
Accurate off the tee and majestic with irons in hand, Morikawa has the perfect game for Colonial and we suspect he has the other ingredient in his bag that we need this week – motivation.
A week after a major can be the ‘after the lord mayor’s show’ effect, but Morikawa is a young man yet to be jaded by the sport – he’s not somebody that over-exerts their schedule, put it that way.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 1st
- Birdie Average – 4th
- Driving Accuracy – 6th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Will Zalatoris (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 86.6, GPFP: 69.25 Salary: $9,900)
Without even owning a tour card, Will Zalatoris has now stacked up three major top-10 finishes in less than a year.
That is an astonishing achievement from a player who isn’t a precociously talented youngster – he is evidently the real deal.
It seems a matter of time before he wins on the PGA TOUR, and a course like Colonial – remember, he can tailor his game to more difficult surroundings – might just be the ideal venue. A week after a major is also a good time to draft a guy who needs to keep performing in order to keep getting those event invites.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 2nd
- Scoring Average – 11th
- Greens in Regulation – 13th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Brian Harman (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 71.5, GPFP: 72.93 Salary: $8,000)
These tight, tree-lined courses tend to be just what the doctor ordered for Brian Harman, whose ability to scramble, grind and scrap his way to a score stands him in excellent stead.
The left-hander has entered the Charles Schwab Challenge for seven straight years, and the insinuation is that he loves Colonial – evidenced by the fact that his worst finish in that span is T31, with two top-10s and a T14 also on the ledger.
Harman has been in excellent form lately, and even accounting for a missed cut at the PGA Championship he served up four consecutive top-20 finishes prior to that – headlined by a T3 return at another small green venue for the PLAYERS Championship.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 8th
- SG: Putting – 15th
- Driving Accuracy – 29th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Chris Kirk (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 68.9, GPFP: 55.16 Salary: $7,600)
The career renaissance of Chris Kirk continues at pace.
Ranking as high as 26th on the TOUR for Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, the Georgia native is strong enough with the putter to really make that count – eight top-25 finishes have followed this season, which is excellent consistency.
Missed cuts at the Valspar Championship and the PGA Championship are no great concern, and indeed back at a layout which suits his short but accurate game Kirk can quickly get back to the form he has shown all throughout the campaign.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 21st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 26th
- Greens in Regulation – 37th
Low-Tier Pick:
Joseph Bramlett (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 62.7, GPFP: 50.14 Salary: $6,700)
Yet to produce a truly stellar performance on the PGA TOUR – thanks largely to the fact he putts like a club pro, Joseph Bramlett has still shown enough to suggest he has a bright future in the game.
The Californian, who will be at home on Colonial’s Bentgrass greens, served up a season’s best at the Byron Nelson, where he finished T7 on the back of an excellent ball-striking effort.
Lacking the consistency that will take his game to the next level, Bramlett does at least have other meaningful results to his name – not least the T18 in excellent company at the Farmers earlier this term.
Tight, tree-lined courses laid with Bentgrass have served Bramlett well lately, so perhaps he can serve up another decent showing this week.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 34th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 52nd
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 84th
Sleeper Pick for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge
Harold Varner III (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 57.8, GPFP: 48.57 Salary: $7,400)
Drafting Harold Varner III, and then watching him play, can be like pulling teeth.
He has a habit of playing poorly when you expect him to do well and vice versa, but the man has got game and – in theory at least – that can be showcased to good effect at Colonial.
Even so, he was T2 four starts ago at the RBC Heritage and made the cut with relative ease at Kiawah Island, and his genuinely excellent tee-to-green game is a real edge at Colonial.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 23rd
- SG: Approach – 39th
- Scoring Average – 58th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge
C.T. Pan (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 52.0, GPFP: 41.60 Salary: $7,200)
It’s been a case of boom-and-bust for C.T. Pan this season, with a series of missed cuts joined by top-20s at The Masters, the Honda Classic, the Genesis and the Wells Fargo Championship.
But the Chinaman is on our radar at wind-affected events where his excellent iron play can yield its best results, and as a former winner at Harbour Town and runner-up at Torrey Pines he certainly fits the bill this week.
Pan finished T3 at Colonial in 2019 too, and while we wouldn’t advise exposing all of your line-ups to his mercurial talents, there is upside in at least taking a look at a player who can thrive when the conditions suit.
Key Stats:
- Par 4 Scoring Average – 45th
- SG: Approach – 59th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 66th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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