Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Genesis Invitational
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 Genesis Invitational
The 2021 Genesis Invitational Fantasy Preview
When he crashed home a double bogey to close out his third round, Daniel Berger – not publicly, but possibly privately – probably thought that his race at the AT&T Pebble Beach was through.
But as Sunday unfolded, it became apparent that Berger was still in the hunt as Jordan Spieth, once more the 54-hole leader, continued to miss fairways and Maverick McNealy, who has been penalized one stroke earlier in the tournament, stuck in the clubhouse at -14.
And so Berger set to work, making eagle-birdie at the second and third to fire himself back towards the summit of the leaderboard.
Patrick Cantlay loomed into view and so too did Nate Lashley, who putted his way to the top of the leaderboard before disappearing unceremoniously after making a seven at the Par 4 sixteenth.
Berger still needed to birdie the tricky last, but after smashing a huge wood to within 30-feet he closed out with a stunning eagle putt to settle any nerves and land his fourth PGA TOUR title.
Business really picks up this week with the Genesis Invitational from the stunning Riviera Country Club.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
ALMOST! Our top pick at Pebble was Patrick Cantlay who ended up T3 and just couldn’t hold off a hot charging Daniel Berger.
Despite the closing day 66, Cantlay didn’t quite have enough to come out on top. Our other picks faired well, but without the Berger, Spieth, McNealy combo, you weren’t going to cash much.
In our Sleeper Report, we were heavy on Homa, Streelman, and NeSmith, who ended up finished T7, 13th, and T16 respectively.
The 2021 Genesis Invitational Field
As you have probably guessed by the name, the Genesis is an invitational event….and happily, many of the world’s best have taken up the invite.
Dustin Johnson, with eight top-10s at Riviera in his last eleven trips, is the tournament jolly but he’ll be well tested by the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas.
Patrick Cantlay has been thriving on the West Coast lately, and he’ll be joined by the in-form Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau and recent winners Brooks Koepka and Berger.
And then there’s Bryson, the rejuvenated Jordan Spieth, the three-time winner of this event Bubba Watson and our defending champion, Adam Scott, to name just a few.
Wow!
This Week’s Course Preview
You can’t improve upon a classic, as the old saying goes, and so it’s fantastic that the Riviera Country Club has been largely untouched since it began hosting this event way, way back in 1929.
There has been some renovation work from Tom Fazio on this George Thomas design, but all told this is the same layout that has beguiled and confused PGA TOUR pros for the past century.
So what has proven to be so timeless about this track in the Pacific Palisades? Well, the thick tree lines and doglegs make it difficult for the layout to be overpowered – you’ve been warned Bryson – and those hard-to-find fairways are similarly matched by small, Poa Annua greens.
This is a decent stretch at 7,322 yards for its Par 71, and don’t forget there’s only three Par 5s here – six of the Par 4s measure more than 450 yards as well, so there will be plenty of mid-range to long irons hit this week.
With tight lines, gnarly rough and undulating greens that can be hard to hold, Riviera presents as assignment of all departments of the game – one thing that is for sure is that the Genesis Invitational champion has earned their stripes.
Weather Forecast for Pacific Palisades, CA
After the unpredictable conditions at Pebble Beach, it’s a much calmer week in store up the road in the Pacific Palisades.
Sunshine is the order of the day, and while the temperatures are not mind-blowing the mercury could still hit a happy enough 71˚F.
There should be no rain to contend with but there could be a wind of around 10mph in the offing, and according to the early predictions on Saturday the gusts could be a challenging 17 mph.
Last Year’s Results for the Genesis Invitational
To give you a flavor of how quickly things can change at Riviera, on the final Sunday 12 months ago the leaderboard was topped variously by five different players!
Rory McIlroy, Matt Kuchar and Sung Kang were among those who had a hand on the trophy at one point or another, but in the end it was the steady hand of Adam Scott who got to hoist it aloft.
The Aussie only needed to post a one-under par tally of 70 to get the job done as all around him fell apart, and his 14th PGA TOUR title came by a full two strokes in the end from Kang, Kuchar and Scott Brown. Rory had to settle for a share of T5.
Adam Scott shoots 1-under 70 | Round 4 | Genesis 2020
In the final of The Genesis Invitational 2020, Adam Scott held off the field and captured his 14th win on the PGA TOUR. SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh Tiger Woods is back in action at the newly-dubbed Genesis Invitational, where J.B. Holmes defends.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the 2021 Genesis Invitational this Week
Outside of the majors, there are some dates that really catch the eye from a DFS perspective, and the Genesis Invitational is always pretty high on the list. Just check out these two standout contests!
- PGA $1.2M Flop Shot: There’s a huge prize pool on offer in this contest, with the winner banking a huge $300k – outside of the big four, that’s one of the largest single prizes you’ll find in gold DFS. You can try your luck at $15 a try.
- PGA $250k Drive the Green: For those on a tighter budget looking for multi-entry play, this Drive the Green contest is a sensible choice as you target numerous line-ups at the $50k top prize from your $5 entries.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 Genesis Invitational
Aside from the occasional curveball – JB Holmes, we’re looking at you – the cream tends to rise to the top at Riviera.
Five of the last seven renewals have been won by major champions – admittedly, three of those by Bubba – and you’ll note that Watson, Scott and DJ all prevailed at Augusta.
That’s perhaps no coincidence. You need to be tidy off the tee and scramble like crazy when not, and you’ll be looking to hit accurate approaches into tiered, unforgiving greens. There are some nasty little chips to be played around the greens, so some quality and ingenuity from that perspective is key.
There are doglegs and tight fairways to overcome, and while there’s not a pine needle in sight you’ll still be scrambling from knotty Kikuyu rough when the short grass is missed – not ideal.
As we know, Poa Annua is typically native to the West Coast and those two things go hand in hand, so once more we are looking for specialists in that particular area.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 Genesis Invitational
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 Genesis Invitational
Top Tier Pick #1:
Patrick Cantlay (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 96.0, GPFP: 76.80 Salary: $9,600)
The big guns are out to play this week at the Riviera Country Club, but it’s a slightly lower-key entrant that catches our eye once more.
Few players in world golf are more at home on the Poa Annua than Patrick Cantlay, and the Californian has already enjoyed a fine West Coast swing with solo second at the American Express backed by T3 at Pebble Beach last time out.
Riviera provides a stern test of all departments of the game, and right now Cantlay seems to be excelling in all of them. He led the way in our SG: Ball Striking stat at Pebble Beach, and that came after he gained strokes on the field putting at the American Express – ergo, he’s hard to overlook at a venue where he has relatively thrived in his three trips thus far.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 4th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 8th
- SG: Putting – 28th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 73.6, GPFP: 78.70 Salary: $9,100)
It’s been a long time since Hideki Matsuyama was available at what we might call ‘value’ betting odds with the sportsbook, and as such he is a snip of a price in the corresponding DFS rankings.
Maybe a slight drop-off in his most recent form is to blame, but Matsuyama isn’t exactly dragging himself around the course right now having finished T2 at the Houston Open, T13 at The Masters and inside the top-20 at the Sony Open in recent times.
As ever, putting remains an issue for the mercurial Japanese ace, but an impressive formline at Riviera – three top-10s and a T11 in his last five trips – suggest that, if nothing else, he seems to enjoy these Poa Annua surfaces.
He’s a hard pick to get over the winning line, but for a player of his obvious ball-striking class Matsuyama is a more-than-fair price here.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 19th
- Par 5 Scoring Average – 23rd
- Total Driving – 49th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Carlos Ortiz (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 82.7, GPFP: 89.29 Salary: $7,800)
One of the things that is most impressing about Carlos Ortiz right now is that his form is traveling across state lines and even allowing him to thrive at disparate golf courses.
From the squally Waialae to the sprawling TPC Scottsdale, the Mexican has delivered fine performances there – T14 at the former, T4 at the latter – and elsewhere, having won in Houston and banked a top-ten on home soil at the Mayakoba.
It’s even worth mentioning his T29 at the Farmers Insurance Open – he was right in the mix for title honors before a final round of 78 ended those hopes.
In the fullness of time, Ortiz will probably reveal himself to be something of a Bermuda specialist, but he has some form on Poa Annua and when his irons meet up with the rest of his game, the Mexican will be a force indeed.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the Tee – 34th
- Scoring Average – 43rd
- SG: Around-the Green – 49th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Lanto Griffin (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 74.6, GPFP: 51.68 Salary: $7,400)
We know by now that Lanto Griffin is a pretty reliable putter wherever he travels, and so it was pleasing to see just how well he was striking the ball from tee to green last time out.
He will clearly need that in his home state once more, but his T7 at the Farmers Insurance Open was not the first time he has played well in California and you suspect it won’t be the last.
Concerns about his chipping around these small greens aside, we really like Griffin’s profile as a potential multiple winner on the PGA TOUR, and his outstanding consistency – seven cuts made from ten starts – makes him a bargain player at this lower end of the salary spectrum.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 14th
- SG: Approach – 24th
- Scoring Average – 64th
Low-Tier Pick:
Chez Reavie (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 52.5, GPFP: 42.03 Salary: $7,000)
How do you like your sandwiches?
Chez Reavie likes his Riviera sandwich with baloney as the filling, but the overall meal is one where the meat is overlooked in favor of the fresh bread on the outside. Basically, what we’re trying to say is that his formline at this layout is 10-MC-73-MC-7.
Even so, we can have a bit more confidence in the diminutive sort given how well he struck the ball last week – it’s a fact, nobody hit their approaches better than Reavie of all the players that completed 72 holes, and that’s a happy sign indeed.
Given his natural style, Reavie should find plenty of fairways at Riviera, attack the flags with his iron darts and – hopefully – make some putts. At this price, he certainly looks worth chancing, anyway.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 13th
- Driving Accuracy – 20th
- Greens in Regulation – 52nd
Sleeper Pick for The 2021 Genesis Invitational
Brian Harman (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 74.8, GPFP: 59.86 Salary: $7,400)
Of all the players that made the cut at Pebble Beach, Brian Harman ended the week ranking fifth in SG: Approach.
If he’d have putted better he would have surely finished higher than his T39, but it was another solid showing in a season full of them so far – the left-hander has only missed one cut in twelve starts.
You’d think Harman’s ability to move the ball both ways off the tee would have rewarded him at Riviera, however he has a mixed bag of form here. That said, a T3 back in 2104 hints at what might be now that he’s had a warm-up on Poa Annua.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 31st
- SG: Putting – 45th
- Scrambling – 60th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for The 2021 Genesis Invitational
J.T. Poston (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 58.4, GPFP: 46.73 Salary: $7,300)
While we consider J.T. Poston to be a player that has, time and again, proven himself to be more adept on Bermuda greens, he actually ranked first for putting on the Poa Annua of Torrey Pines just a couple of weeks ago.
And then followed a significant improvement in his ball striking at the Phoenix Open, and in those two enhanced showings he banked a T11 and a T18 finish.
The downside is that he isn’t blessed with the best chipping game in the world, which is likely to be needed at some point on the greens of Riviera, and yet look at his form here – 30-28-17. Whatever his limitations, Poston seems to find a way to make it work here.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 9th
- Sand Save Percentage – 27th
- Scoring Average – 72nd
This Week’s Sample DraftKings Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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