Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 John Deere Classic
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 John Deere Classic
The 2021 John Deere Classic Fantasy Preview
For true lovers of this great sport, the last few weeks on the PGA TOUR have been absolutely heavenly.
A week after Harris English’s marathon eight-hole play-off victory over Kramer Hickok at the Travelers Championship, overtime was required once again to decide the outcome of the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
This time there were three combatants, with Joaquin Niemann joining Troy Merritt and Cameron Davis as they jousted the extra holes.
The Chilean departed after making bogey at the first extra hole, leaving Merritt and Davis to go at it once more.
It was nip and tuck throughout, with Merritt first grinding out a pair of big clutch putts to stay in the game before missing a six-footer of his own to clinch what would have been a third PGA TOUR title.
The end finally came at the fifth extra hole, with Merritt unable to get up and down from the rough to allow Davis to clinch his maiden PGA TOUR title and the biggest payday of his career to date.
The Australian’s reward for his endeavors will be a hurtle up the FedEx Cup standings and a route into next month’s WGC FedEx St. Jude, and the form he will take from Detroit Golf Club will be crucial in this week’s John Deere Classic.
Scrubbed from the calendar in 2020 due to the Covid pandemic, the JDC will be back at TPC Deere Run and anyone who finishes inside the top-five that is yet to qualify for the British Open will do so.
So there’s plenty on the line ahead of the trip to Illinois this week….
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Last week our top dog was Patrick Reed, who ended up finishing T32. The good news is that we scored a T4 from Hank Lebioda and a T8 from Kevin Kisner.
The 2021 John Deere Classic Field
A week shy of that British Open Championship, it’s not a big surprise to see that the great and good of world golf are taking the week off to regroup and work on their game ahead of the fourth and final major of the year.
Those that are in town include Daniel Berger, who banked a top-five here in 2017, Sungjae Im – he impressed with his top-10 in the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, and Brian Harman, a former winner at TPC Deere Run back in 2014.
The reigning champion, Dylan Frittelli, will return to defend his crown, and he will join a list of former champions in the field that include Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore and three-time winner Steve Stricker.
Other notables in the field include Kevin Na, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Streelman and Russell Henley, each of whom will be looking to book their place at Royal St. Georges in Kent for The Open next week.
This Week’s Course Preview
While undoubtedly a slice of golfing paradise from an aesthetic perspective, there is little else to distinguish TPC Deere Run as a PGA TOUR layout of note.
Designed by D.A. Weibring, this 7,066 yard Par 71 features three Par 5s and expansive fairways – giving every single player in the field a chance of approaching from the short stuff.
There is very little danger off the tee, with the 78 bunkers all playable and water only in play on five hole. At the business end of holes, the Bentgrass greens are receptive, a decent size and run at a fairly standard pace too, so there really is nothing to trouble the players this week – hence why the winning score here in recent years has been -20 or lower.
All things considered, this is something of a putting contest with birdie opportunities galore throughout the real estate, and so he who wields the flatstick the best is likely to go very close to lifting the trophy.
Typically, as many as 13 holes at TPC Deere Run play under par, and with a benign weather forecast in situ it’s likely that a very low score will be required to win the John Deere Classic in 2021.
Weather Forecast for Silvis, IL
As mentioned, it should be a pretty ordinary week weather-wise in Silvis, Illinois.
There is some rain in the forecast on Wednesday but this is in the form of scattered thunderstorms and so we have no real idea of knowing how heavy or when these will strike.
Thursday looks set to dawn bright and sunny with a few clouds, and temperatures could reach a high of 78˚F. Friday looks very much the same too, with more sunshine and clouds and temperatures hitting 86˚F, before there is a slight change in the offing for the weekend.
Here the temperatures will remain up, however there is the threat of more prolonged rain and also the wind speeds could reach 12 mph at least according to the early predictions.
SILVIS WEATHER
Last Year’s Results from the John Deere Classic
As we know, the 2020 edition of the John Deere Classic was wiped out by the pandemic, and so it’s great to see trip to TPC Deere Run back on the schedule this time around.
If we rewind back to 2019, we might just recall Dylan Frittelli lifting his first PGA TOUR trophy following an exceptional final round shootout.
His Sunday 64 was just about enough to see off the threat of Russell Henley, who went so close to joining the 59 Club before falling away to post a 61 in the most scoreable conditions.
In the end, the South African held on the late charges from Henley, Andrew Landry and Chris Stroud, while there was an impressive newcomer in the top-five in one of his first PGA TOUR starts.
Collin Morikawa was making just his fifth start as a professional golfer, but his run to T5 at the John Deere Classic would be his second top-five finish on the PGA TOUR. His next outing at the Barracuda Classic would bring him his first senior silverware.
Highlights | Round 4 | John Deere 2019
In the final round of the 2019 John Deere Classic, Dylan Frittelli wins his first career event after jumping up the leaderboard and carding a 7-under 64. SUBSCRIBE to PGA TOUR now: http://pgat.us/vBxcZSh All eyes will be on 3M Open winner Matthew Wolff when the John Deere Classic gets underway at TPC Deere Run.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the John Deere Classic this Week
These are the kind of crapshoot weeks that DFS gamers should look to avoid where possible, however in a field of this paucity there are opportunities for those who can spot a sleeper and a value play amongst the trash.
- PGA $250k Drive the Green: As mentioned, there is no huge ambition to ‘go big’ this week, however there’s no harm throwing a few darts at this $5 entry contest – especially as the top prize is a very handsome $50k.
- PGA $15k Hybrid: Accumulation ought to be the name of the game this week, and for $9 (three entries of $3) here you will have shots at a $1.5k top prize against 5,950 players and lots of chances to build a bankroll ahead of the British Open next week.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 John Deere Classic
As mentioned in our course report, there is nothing particularly unique or interesting about TPC Deere Run, and that also manifests itself in there being no clear prerogative as to how to win the John Deere Classic.
We should say that driving distance does seem to be of relevance. In 2019, Dylan Frittelli averaged more than 310 yards off the tee and yet he was nowhere for that particular metric, which shows how far the bombers really were hitting the ball off the tee. That said, the likes of Stricker and Johnson have also fared well here in the past, so don’t get too bogged down by that.
Embed from Getty Images
Of course, you want your players to be hitting lots of greens in regulation, but really this is the archetypal putting contest the like of which fills DFS gamers with dread – he who sinks his ball with the least fuss will dominate the leaderboard.
There are only three Par 5s, and so doing the business on the regulation holes will also be key, and really all-in-all we’re looking for players that have been in form, are putting well or have a history of doing well on these Bentgrass surfaces.
And the absolute key is making birdies from hole one, and not relenting until deep into Sunday. This is the kind of tournament where there’s no time to rest on your laurels, with those behind you nipping at your heels constantly….
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 John Deere Classic
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 John Deere Classic
Top Tier Pick #1:
Sungjae Im (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 69.6, GPFP: 55.70 Salary: $10,700)
With such a scarcity of talent at the top end of the market this week, it’s worth taking a chance on Sungjae Im continuing his improved form shown in Detroit.
The Korean ranked top-five for SG: Tee-to-Green there, and it was only a cold putter that prevented him from building on that T8 finish.
Im is a player that tends to be more prominent on Bermuda greens, however that’s not to say he hasn’t had some excellent results on Bentgrass as well – his second place in The Masters in November is just one excellent example of that.
Having grinded away at the U.S. Open and shown his battling qualities in Detroit last week, Im will be looking to make the most of his birdie power at the more agreeable TPC Deere Run this time around.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 28th
- Greens in Regulation – 33rd
- SG: Putting – 42nd
Top Tier Pick #2:
Cam Davis (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 67.9, GPFP: 54.34 Salary: $10,100)
There is, of course, a risk attached to drafting a player a week after they clinched their maiden PGA TOUR title.
However, Cam Davis has the perfect game for TPC Deere Run, and you would love to think that the confidence he will have gained in Detroit can carry over nicely to this assignment in Illinois.
Super long off the tee, the Australian is also an excellent putter – and those are fantastic building blocks for success at this layout.
If you’re concerned that motivation might be a factor, don’t forget that the highest finisher not already qualified for the British Open will stamp their ticket to the Links with a strong performance here, so don’t discount Davis from producing a second successive stellar showing.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 17th
- Birdie Average – 22nd
- SG: Putting – 66th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Pat Perez (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 54.0, GPFP: 70.15 Salary: $7,700)
The fun-loving Pat Perez has been in excellent form for a while now, and he will be looking to frank that with a strong showing at TPC Deere Run.
He’s made the cut in six of his last seven strokeplay events, with top-20s at the Palmetto Championship and the Rocket Mortgage Classic – within his last three starts incidentally –topping the bill.
While not the longest hitter in the world, Perez does seem to thrive in these bomber-style events anyway, and as an excellent putter on all different types of surface he will be looking to make the most of the improvements he has shown in the past few weeks and months.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 45th
- Birdie Average – 60th
- SG: Total – 64th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Patrick Rodgers (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 49.7, GPFP: 53.67 Salary: $7,400)
In these weak field events, there is always a sense that we are having to dig amongst the mud in order to find those rare gold nuggets.
Whether Patrick Rodgers turns in a golden performance this week remains to be seen, but there were some excellent signs for him at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week.
He drove the ball superbly well, and ranked 28th for SG: Approach – that is a novelty indeed for this player, and given that he tends to putt well from week to week (with the odd anomaly) we can only assume that if Rodgers puts all of the elements of his game together, he should go well at a golf course he previously finished second at back in 2017.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 27th
- Par 5 Birdies or Better Leaders – 38th
- Greens in Regulation – 69th
Low-Tier Pick:
Brandon Hagy (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 46.7, GPFP: 47.58 Salary: $7,200)
Californian born and raised, the switch to Bentgrass greens won’t faze Brandon Hagy in the slightest, and consequently he will be looking to build upon the foundations he laid with that top-10 effort at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Wildly inconsistent, Hagy is capable of producing excellent golf when the going is good – as he has shown with solo second at the Honda Classic earlier this season and last week’s T8 in Detroit.
Room off the tee is always welcome with this bomber, who can send his drives a long, long way in pretty much every direction off the tee. But as a decent scrambler, who has delivered a putting improvement of late, Hagy is someone who can put it together and compete in these weak-field events.
Key Stats:
- Lowest Round – 9th
- Driving Distance – 11th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 30th
Sleeper Pick for the 2021 John Deere Classic
Tom Lewis (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 44.7, GPFP: 35.74 Salary: $7,500)
Having watched his fellow European Tour graduate Alex Noren go so close at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, you wonder if Tom Lewis will have had a spark of inspiration.
The Englishman is certainly capable, as he showed in Detroit when opening up with rounds of 65 and 69 before falling away to a T25 finish.
Lewis has the length to succeed at TPC Deere Run, and improvements in his putting game lately suggest that he can start and finish holes in premium fashion.
A two-time winner worldwide in 2019, Lewis’s resumé stands out amongst this scarce company.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 24th
- Driving Distance – 46th
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 75th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2021 John Deere Classic
Scott Stallings (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 51.0, GPFP: 56.63 Salary: $7,400)
Few players in this field can match Scott Stallings’ record at TPC Deere Run – he has served up a T5 finish and two other top-20s within his last four trips to Illinois.
That would suggest that he enjoys putting on these Bentgrass greens, and given that tends to be the missing ingredient in the game of this excellent ball striker, it’s little wonder that Stallings has enjoyed such success on this stretch.
His form has been patchy in recent weeks, but that T25 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic – which included rounds of 66 and 68 – will have bolstered his confidence at the most opportune time.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 31st
- Greens in Regulation – 36th
- Driving Distance – 81st
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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