Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 Shriners Children’s Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Shriners Children’s Open
Shriners Children’s Open Fantasy Preview
For those who follow the Strokes Gained stats live and in-play during PGA TOUR events, there was a certain inevitability to Sam Burns’ triumph at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
The leaderboard was stacked with plenty of traffic heading into Sunday’s final round, with veterans like Nick Watney making their move alongside recent Korn Ferry Tour graduates Cameron Young and Sahith Theegala, but it was Burns who stood out as the most obvious champion.
Already a PGA TOUR event winner, Burns was striking the ball beautifully, and it would only take a minor improvement with the putter to frank a second title on the main stage.
And, happily for the Louisianan, that was forthcoming on his favored Bermuda greens, and even a poor finish – he played the last three holes in +1 – was enough to open the door for anybody else.
The deed was done with four birdies in the space of five holes on the back nine, and as those around him fluffed their lines Burns stood firm enough to join the stable of multiple PGA TOUR victors.
If in doubt, check the stats out. You’ll be amazed at what you can learn in the middle of a tournament…
Anyway, with today’s lesson over, let’s proceed with our preview of this week’s event – the Shriners Children’s Open – which will see a handful of the USA’s successful Ryder Cup team return to strokeplay action.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
WINNER WINNER … AGAIN! That makes two-weeks in a row successfully picking the winner. With Max Homa last week and now Sam Burns this week, it seems like our weekly research is paying off.
Here’s a recap of what we said about Sam Burns heading into last week:
While a record of MC-45-3-43 might not scream as such, the Country Club of Jackson is a golf course made in heaven for Sam Burns.
He will have plenty of room off the tee to hit his bombs without fear of being penalized by a hazard, and then he can let his short-range approach skills really shine.
And as a top-10 putter on Tour – literally, he ranked ninth for SG: Putting last season, Burns has the chops to make the most of the opportunities he creates for himself.
Since winning his maiden PGA TOUR title at the Valspar Championship (on fast Bermuda greens no less), the 25-year-old has finished T2 at the FedEx St Jude and solo eighth at the BMW Championship – he is fast becoming one of the best in the business when conditions suit.
Can we make it three in a row this week?
Shriners Children’s Open Field
Brooks Koepka, Harris English and Scottie Scheffler will make their first start since helping Team America to a resounding Ryder Cup victory, and they will be joined in the field by a handful of players who would have watched on jealously – Patrick Reed and Rickie Fowler chief among them.
Eleven of the world’s top 25 players will tee it up, with Louis Oosthuizen joined by Abraham Ancer, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama and Webb Simpson.
Burns will be looking to secure rare back-to-back victories on the PGA TOUR, while the defending champion Martin Laird will be back to defend his crown alongside former Shriners winners Kevin Na and Ryan Moore.
This Week’s Course Preview
It’s very rare for a PGA TOUR golf course to serve up conditions as unique as these.
TPC Summerlin sits some 2,000ft above sea level, and so not only will the action unfold at altitude but there’s also marked elevation changes too – this is far away from your classic parklands layout.
The ball travels further at altitude and so the 7,255 yard, Par 71 layout can easily be picked apart – particularly given how wide the fairways are and how friendly the rough tends to be.
The Bentgrass greens are on the large side, and they tend to run at a fair pace too given the windy and warm conditions.
Designed by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller, TPC Summerlin is one of those rare courses on the PGA TOUR rotation that does seem to require some experience and prior knowhow of how to thrive in the conditions.
Weather Forecast for Las Vegas, NV
It’s Nevada, it’s the desert, it’s early fall and so you can kind of guess what the weather will be like.
The early forecast suggests that sunny and dry will be the way forward at TPC Summerlin, with – famous last words – very little chance of rain.
Aside from a dip to 71˚F on the Friday, it should be nice and warm for the players too – temperatures as high as 84˚F are expected.
This being Nevada, you can expect the wind to be blowing, and a breeze of 11 mph and faster has been predicted.
Last Year’s Results from the Shriners Children’s Open
As if to prove the point that course form is important at TPC Summerlin, Martin Laird joined the 2019 champion – Kevin Na – on the list of multiple-time Shriners champions last year.
The Scot, who was only playing thanks to his sponsor’s exemption for being a past winner, ended a seven-year wait for a PGA TOUR title by producing a superb ball-striking performance – ending up with a winning mark of -23.
He would, however, still need a playoff in order to get his hands on the trophy, defeating Matthew Wolff and Austin Cook on the second extra hole to clinch his fourth TOUR title.
Most expected the 54-hole leader Patrick Cantlay to convert but he fell away on Sunday, while a largely unknown youngster by the name of Will Zalatoris claimed a top-five finish.
Martin Laird shoots 3-under 68 | Round 4 | Shriners 2020
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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Shriners Children’s Open this Week
It’s a tough event to call, is the Shriners Children’s Open, but that’s not to say that opportunities don’t exist – we recommend a strategy of spreading your risk across a couple of different contest types. Here’s just two options:
- PGA $100k Drive the Green: At the budget end of your options sits the Drive the Green, which requires $5 per entry but which delivers plenty of chances to cash anyway – $25k to the winner, and of course the top 22.5% of entries also make bank too.
- PGA $80k Club Twirl: For higher stakes players, the $44 entry into the Club Twirl narrows your options but provides a range of benefits nonetheless – there’s only 2,120 teams for starters, and the winner takes home $20k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Shriners Children’s Open
With the golf ball flying an extra 20 yards or so off the tee at TPC Summerlin, but with little in the way off rough to worry about, most will be taking the big stick and swinging from their boots this week.
But that’s not to say that some class isn’t required. Laird ranked seventh for SG: Approach last year, while former winners Na, Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau (in his pre-powerhouse days) all have ample talent with irons and wedges in hand.
That altitude, and those elevation changes, have to be considered a major difference-maker, as will the stifling desert location – so much so that we really do place a premium on previous course form at TPC Summerlin (perhaps more so than the vast majority of other PGA TOUR layouts).
Don’t forget, we’re also switching to the Western half of the States too, and so Bentgrass will make up the putting surfaces, and that will be a factor in who thrives and who….well, doesn’t.
The wind can also get up in this part of the world too, and so in making a successful draft this week you will need to plug all of these unique parameters into your selection decision-making.
Happily, we’ve done much of the heavy lifting for you….
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Shriners Children’s Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Shriners Children’s Open
Top Tier Pick #1:
Will Zalatoris (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 81.7, GPFP: 65.36 Salary: $10,100)
Boasting current form and a top-five at TPC Summerlin, Will Zalatoris is very much on the radar this week.
The young gun continues to play great golf, backing up a T11 at the Fortinet Championship with T14 at the Sanderson Farms, and switching back to Bentgrass greens – he was born and raised in California – will hopefully lead to improvement again.
Long off the tee and with an exemplary approach game, Zalatoris naturally makes plenty of birdies and so has to be in the reckoning this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 17th
- Driving Distance – 20th
- Birdie Average – 25th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Hideki Matsuyama (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 71.1, GPFP: 91.02 Salary: $9,500)
A proven wind player with stacks of form on Bentgrass greens, maybe now is the time for Hideki Matsuyama to get back into the winner’s circle.
A handful of notable performances on elevated courses – including a 16-MC-10 formline at TPC Summerlin, which is not be sniffed at – confirm the Japanese ace as one to watch this week, as did a return to form last time out at the Fortinet Championship.
He ended up finishing T6 there, but he did produce a ball-striking clinic in California and so we can hope for more of the same this week too.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 9th
- SG: Approach – 9th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 33rd
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Joaquin Niemann (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 76.4, GPFP: 61.15 Salary: $8,300)
There’s a lot to like about Joaquin Niemann’s course fit at TPC Summerlin, and if he brings his A-game to Nevada he could certainly contend at the business end.
The Chilean is a noted lover of Bentgrass greens, makes plenty of birdies and is perhaps at his best when he can let drives go with abandon – as he can, for the most part, at this track.
A run of 10-MC-13 is the kind of course form we’re looking for, and while he’s had some time away from golf since the TOUR Championship, there’s no reason why he can’t return with a bang this week.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 24th
- SG: Putting – 47th
- SG: Approach – 49th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Lucas Glover (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 57.7, GPFP: 66.94 Salary: $7,000)
A proven performer at TPC Summerlin, it’s worth chancing our arm on a Lucas Glover bounce-back this week.
The wily veteran has delivered a trio of top-10 finishes at this track in his most recent trips, and that course form stands out as amongst the best at a layout that has been boom-or-bust for many.
A winner at the John Deere Classic not many moons ago, Glover hasn’t exactly delivered very much since. But, in happy surroundings he knows and loves, there’s no reason not to think his form can’t improve quite rapidly.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 17th
- SG: Approach – 23rd
- Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 47th
Low-Tier Pick:
Scott Piercy (Odds: 170/1, FPPG: 59.8, GPFP: 47.87 Salary: $6,700)
Given that he lives nearby, it’s little wonder that Scott Piercy has played in 15 of the last 16 editions of the Shriners.
And the Nevada native has built a decent bank of form at TPC Summerlin in that time, with four top-10s, four top-25s and just three missed cuts.
Piercy is the kind of sleeper pick that can deliver at his home course, and there’s even some recent form to like into the bargain – solo third at the Barracuda Championship followed by T11 at the Fortinet.
Key Stats:
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 33rd
- Driving Distance – 40th
- Scoring Average – 58th
Sleeper Pick for the Shriners Children’s Open
Brendan Steele (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 56.4, GPFP: 73.33 Salary: $6,700)
Ranking top-30 for SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting at the Sanderson Farms Championship, Brendan Steele can reflect on a really solid week.
That’s his best effort for a while – a long while, actually, but from such small acorns giant oaks can grow.
While he’s yet to break the top-10 at TPC Summerlin, Steele is a regular visitor – that suggests he likes the layout….or Vegas, maybe – and has made the cut in six of his nine trips, with two top-20s and five top-40 finishes to his name.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 41st
- SG: Putting – 44th
- Birdie Average – 65th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Shriners Children’s Open
Russell Knox (Odds: 220/1, FPPG: 51.8, GPFP: 66.87 Salary: $6,400)
Still a phenomenal iron player, it’s always something of a surprise that Russell Knox hasn’t done more with his career.
A lack of length is an obvious obstacle that he struggles to overcome, but venues like TPC Summerlin at least offer him the chance to compete on level terms with the big hitters.
The Scot has a decent record at this course, with only one missed cut in seven visits and a T3 finish back in 2014 to his credit.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 150-175 yards – 45th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 48th
- Scoring Average – 53rd
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
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