Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
The 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Fantasy Preview
After coasting to a procession of a victory at the Honda Classic, Matt Jones made it a sensational three winners in four PGA TOUR events for this column.
The Aussie was right at home in the windy and fast conditions at PGA National, and after carding an opening 61 it was never likely that a weak-field would have the firepower to close the gap.
And so it proved, with Jones able to wrap up a five-shot victory for his first PGA TOUR win since the Houston Open of 2014.
Speaking of which, the TOUR is Texas bound for the first leg of the Lone Star State Swing this week, as the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play heads to the Austin Country Club prior to next week’s stint in San Antonio at the Texas Open.
And then, of course, there’s the little matter of The Masters….
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Count ’em … that’s two weeks in a row this column has picked the WINNER!
We came into the Honda hot off a JT win at THE PLAYERS and took Matt Jones as our Mid-Tier pick last week which makes us 2 for 2 over these last two weeks.
Here’s what we had to say about MJ heading into last week:
Slow and steady might just win the race this week, and by all accounts Matt Jones can grind out a score.
His low bullets should keep him in good order off the tee, but even when mistakes are made the Australian is a noted scrambler who is simply very good at making par – there could be a premium on that this week.
A missed cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational halted his progress somewhat, but in and around that Jones has banked four top-30 finishes in his last eight starts – notably in stronger fields than this one.
Our top pick was also Sungae Im, who finished the event with a solid T8.
The 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Field
While match play golf is not everybody’s bag, there’s still going to be a high-class turnout in Austin with all of the OWGR top-10 making the trip.
Indeed, aside from the injured Tiger Woods and Brooks Koepka, only Justin Rose and Gary Woodland have not taken up their invitation from the WGC, and so this will be a quality field that goes toe-to-toe in this unique format.
Dustin Johnson, the winner here in 2017, leads the way backed by THE PLAYERS Championship victor Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau – how will he fare at match play golf?
Patrick Reed and Jon Rahm, not exactly shrinking violets, will provide fearsome opposition, while the rather more laidback Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth will be fancied if they bring their A-games.
The defending champion, Kevin Kisner, is in the hunt as is the man he beat in the 2019 final, Matt Kuchar, while former winners Jason Day and Bubba Watson would love to get their hands on a trophy sooner rather than later.
Within the 64-player field, there’s 17 different nationalities represented and some 22 players making their debuts in this rarefied format.
This Week’s Course Preview
While it’s the style of golf that takes most of the headlines this week, it should not be forgotten that we get to enjoy a trip to another classic Pete Dye layout too.
In truth, the Austin Country Club has less teeth than other Dye courses, but it still provides a decent test of golf, and the fact that the last final was Kuchar vs Kisner perhaps indicates that precision and strategy are the orders of the day.
A short 7,082 yards for its Par 71, Austin CC is in many ways the perfect layout for match play golf. There’s risk and reward a-plenty, with a drivable Par 4 and three Par 5s that can be reached in two shots by pretty much everyone.
But don’t think Dye had gone soft when designing this track, because there’s plenty of gremlins too with thick tree-lines and deep pot bunkers troubling the fairways and the fringes of the greens.
Austin CC is interesting in its landscaping too, with nine holes played on rolling hills – meaning elevation changes, and thus club selection, becomes vital. And then the other nine is played on land adjacent to Lake Austin, and so the water becomes another hazard for the field to overcome.
It’s a unique layout that encompasses two separate stretches: the first nine holes are played in the hills on undulating terrain, and the second line are on the flat ground flanked by Lake Austin.
It takes good golf to win at Austin CC, regardless of the format.
Weather Forecast for Austin, TX
A note for your diaries – this event kicks off on Wednesday, so be sure to have your drafts in place by then.
It’s also worth noting that the opening couple of days of play could unfold in changeable conditions, with a mix of rain showers and sunshine forecast – the wind on Thursday could reach 15mph too.
Friday, Saturday and Sunday look to be more settled, with sunny spells and cloud and a manageable wind, with the mercury peaking at a soothing 86˚F on the Saturday.
Last Year’s Results from the WGC-Dell Match Play
The WGC Match Play was one of the first events to be cancelled due to the Covid pandemic in 2020, and so it’s back to 2019 we go for the last edition of this tournament.
And as mentioned, it was a somewhat surprising final pairing as Kisner battled Kuchar for the trophy, with the equally eyebrow-raising duo of Francesco Molinari and Lucas Bjerregaard locking horns in the third/fourth place playoff.
In the final, Kisner birdied the opening hole and was two-up through the first eight, and while Kooch rallied somewhat the game was up on the eleventh when Kisner stole clear and by the sixteenth he had sunk another birdie putt to secure a 3 & 2 victory.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the WGC-Dell Match Play this Week
If you’re going to take down a big one this week, you will need an extraordinary amount of luck and variance on your side – just take a look at the results of this event in recent years if you don’t believe us!
Instead, we’re opting for low budget contests in an attempt to sniper some profit – at worse, we’ll at least have skin in the game.
- PGA $100k Drive the Green: It will take a combination of luck and skill to win a large-field slate this week, but if you’re feeling confident this contest pays $25k to the winner from a $5 stake.
- PGA $20k Caddie: Maybe a one-time silver bullet is the way to go….there’s no edge to be had this week! This single entry contest serves up a $2k top prize and there’s a field of less than 5,000, so there’s a chance….
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson, Jason Day, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth and Bubba Watson.
What do they all have in common? Yes, they are all major winners, but another common distinction is that they all failed to make it past the group stage of the WGC Match Play in 2019.
Even players of the calibre of Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau and more made a hasty retreat from Austin CC as the group phase of the event became a graveyard for some of the best players in the world – not the first time that has been the case.
Yep, unfortunately this event is something of a crapshoot, and rolling the dice is your best bet as you look to put together a winning line-up.
There were plenty of players with match play experience that made it to the bracket phase, be it through the Ryder Cup or the Presidents Cup, , and the only thing that linked them was a general theme of accuracy off the tee – even if the rough at Austin CC is not all that penal.
When you see names like Kisner, Kuchar, Na and Garcia at the latter stages of a tournament you know that plotting and strategy are key, while proven performers in the wind like Molinari and Bjerregaard also thrived in 2019.
Other than that….well, good luck!
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win The 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Top Tier Pick #1:
Dustin Johnson (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 92.75 , GPFP: 119.65 Salary: $11,500)
If Dustin can be bothered – and it is a big ‘if’ – it will take an almighty performance to beat him in the match play format.
Given that he has won this event in the past, the suggestion is that DJ takes some joy in taking opponents on and that makes him a dangerous animal this week.
It doesn’t even bother us too much that he will miss fairways – the rough at Austin CC isn’t too penal, and besides which he is so good at scrambling with long irons and short wedges that he is perfectly placed to thrive on small-green golf courses.
In his group he will face Kevin Na, a worthy adversary in this format, plus two rookies in Adam Long and Robert MacIntyre, and clearly there could have been a tougher assignment for him.
Nothing can be taken for granted in this bizarre tournament, but one thing we do know is that if DJ fancies the job it will take a world class performance to defeat him.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance – 8th
- SG: Approach – 9th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 10th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Webb Simpson (Odds: 30/1, FPPG:82.95, GPFP: 99.54 Salary: $9,100)
It seems remarkable that Webb Simpson has such a poor record in this event.
He has few weaknesses through the bag and even his lack of length is not too much of a hindrance at Austin CC. Lest we forget, few play Pete Dye courses quite like he does.
There’s a perception that Simpson is out of form, even if two top-10s within his last four starts suggests otherwise, and there’s just enough good performances in the bank to hint that he’s another that will need to be scraped off the course to beat him.
A handy Ryder Cupper in the past, Simpson is paired with Paul Casey, Taylor Gooch and MacKenzie Hughes in his bracket – it could be better, but it could be a lot worse too.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 4th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 8th
- SG: Putting – 13th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Abraham Ancer (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 74.54, GPFP: 59.63 Salary: $7,700)
Of all the groups, it is arguably Group 13 where we have the hardest job of picking a winner.
A case for Viktor Hovland can be made given his recent form, while the wily old fox Kevin Streelman will hit plenty of fairways and GIR and make life difficult for his opponents.
But Abraham Ancer really impressed in the Presidents Cup of 2019, and like Streelman his relentless ability to find the short stuff off the tee and GIR on approach means that any opponent has to play very well to beat him.
If he plays as well as we hope he might – and there’s no reason why not with T5 at the American Express and T22 at the PLAYERS in recent memory – then Ancer could be the answer this week.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 2nd
- Greens in Regulation – 16th
- Birdie Average – 20th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Max Homa (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 67.04, GPFP: 116.95 Salary: $7,400)
With seven top-25s in his last nine starts, including victory at the Genesis, few head into this WGC with the formline of Max Homa.
The Californian has a nice profile for match play golf – he’s long off the tee, and makes strokes on approach and around the green – and we’re particularly interested in his group.
Clearly, Collin Morikawa is a quality operator, but he like Homa is new to match play and may not find the transition to his liking. The other two players in Group 4 – Billy Horschel and J.T. Poston – are basically pure putters, and if the flatstick doesn’t work for them they will be in trouble.
Homa is trending nicely right now, and he could take kindly to this format.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 29th
- Driving Distance – 41st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 54th
Low-Tier Pick:
Brian Harman (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 75.64, GPFP: 74.13 Salary: $7,200)
He might not exactly scream WGC winner, but Brian Harman can take great enthusiasm from the 2019 final of this event.
He’s in the same category of player as Kisner and Kuchar, and his ability to keep the ball in play and make some putts will be most welcome.
Harman is a Pete Dye aficionado too – T3 at the PLAYERS Championship just one of a long line of decent showings at the famed architect’s designs.
In Group 10, we can put question marks next to the names of Patrick Cantlay, who surprisingly missed the cut at Sawgrass, and Hideki Matsuyama, who has not gone beyond the group phase in four attempts.
Perhaps Harman will be the one to take advantage….
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 24th
- SG: Putting – 24th
- Driving Accuracy – 45th
Sleeper Pick for the 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Jason Kokrak (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 69.89, GPFP: 83.17 Salary: $7,500)
A tough, but winnable, Group 12 creates opportunities for Jason Kokrak.
In that bracket he will be paired with Tony Finau, who hasn’t taken to match play golf, Dylan Frittelli – he missed the cut at the Honda, and Will Zalatoris, who appears to be an extremely gifted young man but for whom match play is something of an unknown quantity.
Kokrak has been around the block and seems to have the ideal game for this format of the sport – he makes few mistakes, and that will put the pressure on his opponents. It helps that he’s in tremendous form too, with three top-10s in a row on the PGA TOUR of late.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 8th
- SG: Putting – 8th
- Scoring Average – 34th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the 2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Harris English (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 74.54, GPFP: 90.19 Salary: $7,300)
Opportunity knocks in Group 14.
Admittedly, Daniel Berger is playing the golf of his life right now, but having failed to advance past the group in three attempts in this tournament we have to suggest there’s a blind sport in the match play set-up.
Erik van Rooyen isn’t playing well enough to contend – famous last words of course, but that’s the evidence – and so Group 14 could yield chances for Brendon Todd and Harris English.
Both fit the bill as a Kisner and Kuchar style plodder, but you would argue there’s slightly more class to English’s game with very few weaknesses through the bag – that should, in theory, make him very difficult to beat both in match play and at a Pete Dye layout.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 25th
- Scoring Average – 33rd
- SG: Putting – 35th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
DRAFTKINGS
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2020-2021)
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