Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 BMW Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 BMW Championship
BMW Championship Fantasy Preview
It’s been evident for a long time to anyone with even a passing interest in golf that Will Zalatoris is a multiple PGA TOUR champion in the making.
And so when the chance to convert at the FedEx St. Jude Championship came along on Sunday, he was desperate not to fluff his lines at the winning post again – confirmed by his shriek of ‘what are they gonna say now!?’ when that final putt hit the cup.
It took a playoff to bank the win at TPC Southwind, and to say those three extra holes against Sepp Straka were eventful is something of an understatement.
Zalatoris saw one errant shot ricochet into a wall and just avoid dropping into the drink, but on two separate occasions he needed two shortish range putts – normally his achilles heel – to come to the rescue, and on both occasions he made no mistake.
It was just his day. It would have been better if he’d converted a maiden PGA TOUR win on the many occasions we’ve drafted him this term, but there you go!
As it stands, Zalatoris is now top of the FedEx Cup standings with just two events to go….starting with this week’s BMW Championship, which finds a new temporary home at Wilmington Country Club in Delaware.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Sungjae Im was our best finish last week at T12. Losing Scottie Scheffler to the cut line stung quite a bit, but we’re confident we can narrow things down with the smaller field this week.
BMW Championship Field
The top 70 of the FedEx Cup standings will ride on to Delaware, and now it’s all about earning a place in the final 30 for the season-ending TOUR Championship at East Lake.
The only member of the 70 not expected to compete at Wilmington is Tommy Fleetwood, who seems to have opted out of the FedEx Cup this year, while there are rumors that Cameron Smith – linked with a switch to LIV Golf – is also going to sit out the BMW Championship.
That would leave a field of 68, with Zalatoris looking to hold off the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Sam Burns and Xander Schauffele at the head of the FedEx Cup race.
As far as the sportsbooks are concerned, Scheffler leads the way in their odds alongside Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas.
This Week’s Course Preview
If we can climb aboard our soapbox for a moment, it really grinds our gears that the BMW Championship – which ought to be one of the PGA TOUR’s flagship events given its status in the FedEx Cup battle – has become something of a traveling circus in recent years.
Every season it’s off to somewhere new, and in the case of Wilmington Country Club we have a layout that has barely featured at the elite end of golf.
The last time it hosted a tournament of note was the 2013 Palmer Cup, where the US (featuring a youthful Justin Thomas) obliterated their European opponents.
So what do we know about Wilmington CC? Well, from the images and videos we’ve analyzed, this looks to be a layout with plenty of undulations and heavily guarded, undulating greens, and with plenty of trees on the estate there’s going to be some tight driving lines as well.
Originally designed by Robert Trent Jones, the course was given a makeover in 2021 following a freak tornado, and most have commented that the alterations make Wilmington a tougher golf course to tame – at 7,534 yards for its Par 71, it’s certainly long enough if nothing else.
The track looks to be well bunkered and the rough is said to be up, so this will surely prove to be a test of long, straight hitting – the minimum requirement from a FedEx Cup playoff event. The Bermuda green complexes look to have plenty of unique cambers and angles too.
And fans of such things will enjoy the eighteenth hole – an uphill, doglegging-left Par 4 with a well-protected green and a blind approach shot if the pin is set on the back half of the dancefloor….which you can guarantee it will be come Sunday.
Weather Forecast for Wilmington, DE
Already a long course with several uphill holes, Wilmington could prove to be an even more sizable layout if the rain comes over the weekend as expected.
The early forecasts are suggesting either rain showers or scattered thunderstorms, and the amount of precipitation that falls will determine how long the track plays in real terms – if it chucks it down, shorter hitters really will have their work cut out.
The good news for them, perhaps, is that Thursday and Friday look to be set fair according to the early forecast, with sunny spells, single-digit wind speeds and temperatures hitting 88˚F.
Last Year’s Results from the BMW Championship
It was Patrick Cantlay that gave his FedEx Cup title charge the impetus it needed with a win in the BMW Championship 12 months ago.
Played at Caves Valley in Maryland, Cantlay saw off the challenge of Bryson DeChambeau on a frantic Sunday – although he needed six playoff holes to finally get the ‘W’ over the line.
It was testament to Cantlay’s staying power that he even featured in the playoff – he found water on the 71st hole, and needed to make a 20ft putt on the last to book his date with Bryson.
Amazingly, DeChambeau’s score of -27 was the lowest in TOUR history not to yield a win, and he will have been left ruing three spurned birdie opportunities during those nerve-racking playoff holes.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the BMW Championship this Week
The problem with such small fields is that big-budget whales can boss multi-entry contests simply by drafting more line-up combinations than anyone else. So, for us, only entering those with single or low entry requirements is the right way to go this week.
- PGA $40k Albatross: Those of slightly more limited means can enjoy this $12 entry contest, with a single bullet all that separates you from the $4,000 top prize. Can you defeat the other 3,920 players?
- PGA $20k Dogleg: With just 706 entries allowed, the field is squeezed for this $33 entry contest, and the top prize of $2,000 will be just reward for taking a risk on this single-entry game.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the BMW Championship
The problem with the BMW Championship in recent years is that it has required a leap into the unknown!
And once more into the breach we go with Wilmington Country Club, a layout which we can make some assumptions about.
It’s mightily long with its 7,500+ yardage and uphill-lying holes, and straight off the bat that discounts some of the shorter hitters in the field.
As well as some tight driving lines and shot shaping off the tee, many of these Bermuda greens are protected on all sides too, and so precise approach play will be of the essence – although the dancefloors do look to be a decent size, by all accounts.
But there’s a clear emphasis on long ball-strikers this week, and we’re particularly interested in those that have performed well at tracks that can loosely be described as correlating – i.e. long, tree-lined and with an emphasis on quality driving.
In that category go Quail Hollow, the long-standing home of the Wells Fargo Championship, Muirfield Village (Memorial Tournament), Memorial Park (home of the 2020 and ’21 Houston Open), Southern Hills (2022 PGA Championship) and Augusta, which should require no introduction.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the BMW Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the BMW Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Xander Schauffele (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 85.4, GPFP: 84.52 Salary: $9,600)
With Cameron Smith probably out injured and Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler missing the cut at TPC Southwind, perhaps opportunity knocks further down the billing this week.
Xander Schauffele is a player that looks primed for the very top of golf, and his pair of wins at the Scottish Open and Travelers Championship will surely convince him – should he need it – that he belongs at the sport’s top table.
He’s won three times this season all told, and a player with top-15s in three of the four majors this year – The Masters being the only blot on his copybook – is clearly of the highest order.
With a stack of form at the correlating courses outlined above, Schauffele has to be considered a value play this week.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 7th
- Greens in Regulation – 12th
- SG: Approach – 16th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Collin Morikawa (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 73.4, GPFP: 71.20 Salary: $9,400)
A player of immense talent who has just started to slip off the radar of late, there were more encouraging signs for Collin Morikawa last week.
He finished T5 at TPC Southwind and ranked inside the top-10 for SG: Tee-to-Green, and that suggests he is heating up nicely heading into the last two events of the campaign.
Given his amazing early seasons, Morikawa is now a long time between drinks – he hasn’t won in 2022 yet, and so the flames of motivation will be burning bright. Sitting 20th in the FedEx Cup ranks, he’ll know that a strong turn at Wilmington could see him through to East Lake next week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 3rd
- Scoring Average – 12th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 19th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Aaron Wise (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 68.9, GPFP: 59.95 Salary: $8,100)
Currently sat 31st in the FedEx Cup standings, what a feather in the cap of Aaron Wise it would be to reach the TOUR Championship.
It would be just reward for a curious campaign in which he has played very well without ever really looking likely to win – solo second at the Memorial (played at the correlating Muirfield Village) as good as it’s got.
But a player that ranks 21st on TOUR this term for SG: Approach, 23rd for Birdie Average and 24th for Scoring Average has to command respect even in a high-quality field, and Wise’s formline – three top-40s in the non-Masters majors, and T13 at the Wyndham Championship – confirms his readiness.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 21st
- Scoring Average – 24th
- Scrambling – 40th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Brian Harman (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 62.1, GPFP: 68.37 Salary: $7,700)
Brian Harman simply loves playing golf at tree-lined courses.
The leftie’s T3 at TPC Southwind, where he noticeably struck the ball well, follows other useful turns at the Valspar Championship (T5), Travelers (T8) and Memorial Tournament (T18).
A proven performer on Bermuda greens, Harman has shown form at a number of our correlating courses and looks ready to book his spot at the TOUR Championship with a strong showing here.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 31st
- SG: Putting – 51st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 54th
Low-Tier Pick:
Sahith Theegala (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 67.6, GPFP: 54.73 Salary: $7,300)
It would take a huge surprise now if Sahith Theegala was to haul in Cameron Young as the PGA TOUR’s rookie of the year, but even so he can reflect on a superb first season amongst golf’s elite.
The 24-year-old has delivered five top-10s to his backers, with three top-fives and a T7 at the high-quality Valspar Championship.
Theegala’s consistency is based on his excellent tee-to-green game, but he will have been buoyed by a better putting show at TPC Southwind – let’s see if he can put all of the pieces of the puzzle together in Delaware.
Key Stats:
- Scrambling – 28th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 46th
- Birdie Average – 56th
Sleeper Pick for the BMW Championship
Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 56.5, GPFP: 45.20 Salary: $6,600)
It’s been much better from Emiliano Grillo of late, who has served up a pair of T2 finishes at the John Deere Classic and the 3M Open and appeared on our ball-striking stat tracker as well.
Perhaps most pertinently, the Argentine has gained strokes on the field putting in each of his last four starts – unheard of for a player ranked 120th on TOUR with the flat stick this season.
A continuation of his usually-sound ball-striking and improved putting should yield his followers plenty of reward this week….
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 3rd
- Birdie Average – 24th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 53rd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the BMW Championship
Alex Smalley (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 56.4, GPFP: 45.11 Salary: $6,100)
Here’s a player that could be one to watch in his sophomore year next season.
But he won’t give up on a place in the TOUR Championship, and so far Alex Smalley has proven himself to be a player with tremendous upside when things are going well.
In his last eleven strokeplay starts, he has missed five cuts but delivered six top-30 turns – five of which have come at T21 or better. So he’s a boom-and-bust kinda guy….but those can come up trumps from time to time as budget sleeper plays.
Key Stats:
- Total Driving – 26th
- Scoring Average – 53rd
- SG: Approach – 65th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
Tourneys Played '21 -'22
Season Earnings YTD
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