Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Fantasy Preview
In a year in which golf has faced its largest existential crisis in decades, it’s somehow fitting that one of the PGA TOUR’s most vocal defenders has returned to the world number one position.
Rory McIlroy successfully defended the CJ Cup title he won in Las Vegas back in 2021 with victory some 2,000 miles away at Congaree in South Carolina.
The Irishman held off an interested chasing pack with a string of birdies on a classic Sunday showing, and he even had time to make a couple of closing bogeys to still win by one shot from Kurt Kitayama.
Our headline pick Jon Rahm took the outright lead at one point, but the Spaniard tripped himself up as his game deserted him with the finishing line in sight.
This was McIlroy’s 23rd PGA TOUR title, and if he can claim another at some point it will tie him, ironically, with one of LIV Golf’s most marketable rebels in Dustin Johnson. Who knows if DJ will ever get a chance to play on golf’s premier tour ever again….
These are questions we can ponder while trying to crack the code of the Bermuda Championship, which retains its status as one of the most mind-boggling DFS and betting weeks on the circuit.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
LETS GO! What a week.
Our top pick Jon Rahm finished T4 and our top sleeper pick was Kitayama, who finished solo 2nd!
We also had Aaron Wise (6th) and Jason Day (T11) to help round out a roster with 4 Top 11’s on it.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Field
An event in which Denny McCarthy, Seamus Power and Thomas Detry are vying for sportsbook favoritism is every bit the conundrum to unravel as it sounds.
Mark Hubbard and S.H. Kim have been showing form of late, so they may be of interest to some, while the joker in the pack could be Adrian Meronk – the world number 61 won on the DP World Tour earlier this year.
The evergreen Brian Gay will return to defend the trophy he unexpectedly won in 2020, and the 51-year-old will be joined in the field by a host of veterans including European Ryder Cup captain Luke Donald and the ever-popular John Daly.
At the other end of the age spectrum, Aaron Jarvis – who qualified for The Masters as a 19-year-old amateur – will make a rare PGA TOUR appearance.
This Week’s Course Preview
It’s sumptuous to look at, but Royal Port GC in the Bermudan town of Southampton would also surely be one of the easiest around if the wind didn’t blow.
But it does – more on that shortly, and with some penal rough for those that stray too far off line, Royal Port isn’t necessarily the jolly in the sun that it might otherwise be.
But if the players can keep their ball in play, a world of opportunities open up to them on these large Bermuda greens, which play their part in what is the dictionary definition of a putting contest.
At just 6,828 yards for its Par 71, it won’t surprise you to know that driving distance is of little consequence at Royal Port, and instead trying to keep your ball in play amid the swirling breeze is key. Half of the course’s holes are somewhat inland and protected from the zephyr blowing in off the Atlantic Ocean.
All three Par 5s are reachable in two, and a number of the Par 4s leave simple 50-100 yard approaches for birdie – but watch out for the Par 3s. Three of these measure a knee-knocking 210 yards or more.
Weather Forecast for Southampton, Bermuda
You can’t fault the weather in Southampton for predictability.
All four days come with the asterisk of ‘potential thunderstorms’, with the chance of rain at 70% across the week – that gives you a flavor of what could be in store.
The wind picks up across the four days too, and by Sunday could touch the 20mph mark – that will play absolute havoc with scoring if realized.
If nothing else, at least it’s warm – temperatures of 80˚F will help to fight off the breeze rattling the bones of the players and their caddies.
Last Year’s Results from the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Making just his third start as a fully-fledged PGA TOUR member, Lucas Herbert outlasted the field in the Bermuda Championship 12 months ago.
The Aussie broke the back of his win with rounds of 65 on Friday and Saturday, and that cushion was just about enough to see him home despite the chaotic weather that reigned on the Sunday.
Rain delays and high winds derailed his momentum – Herbert would play the stretch from four to twelve in +1, but he had just enough of a lead to keep the likes of Patrick Reed (via a final round of 65) and Danny Lee, whose back nine included three birdies, two bogeys and a double bogey, at bay.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship this Week
So, how are you going to play it?
Make no mistake, in a week where nobody will be truly confident in their team, opportunity knocks.
But then there’s the potential for plenty of downside too, so a conservative approach – with a couple of single darts – might just be the smart way to play it.
- GOLF TOUR $300k Pitch & Putt: The winner of this $20 contest pockets $100k for their efforts, and given the unpredictable nature of the week ahead there’s every chance that could be the lineup you pick….there’s absolutely no certainty at all in the Bermuda Championship.
- GOLF TOUR $100k Drive the Green: If you play the Pitch & Putt contest, you can try to win back your $20 stake by entering this $5 game, where you will hit your target and perhaps more by finishing in the top 10% of players. The winner lands $25k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes
It’s not rocket science to figure out what it will take to succeed this week, it’s just finding the guys that will satisfy the criteria that’s the hard part.
Keeping your ball in play off the tee is vital at Royal Port in these strong winds, and that doesn’t necessarily mean picking accurate plodders – you can include lengthier sorts with a lower ball-flight to power through the breeze.
Hitting out of the short stuff presents plenty of opportunities at this layout, because the greens are large and relatively straightforward with only minimal curves and undulations.
This will be something of a putting contest, so we have to be mindful of that, but players that continue to hit the best approaches will have the best chance of making birdies – that’s an adage that is as old as time.
Perhaps keep in mind those that have been successful in similar conditions. Mayakoba, Harbour Town and Sea Island are just three to consider, and don’t forget the PGA TOUR’s various other stop-offs on Atlantic islands – the Puerto Rico Open and the Corales Puntacana Championship are also of interest.
[membership level=”0″]
Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.
Already a member? Sign in Here.
[/membership]
[membership level=”1,2,3″]
Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Top Tier Pick #1
Aaron Rai (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 77.2, GPFP: 62.51 Salary: $10,100)
While earning his stripes on the DP World Tour, Aaron Rai built a reputation as a smart campaigner who is capable of keeping his ball in play in even the most tawdry of conditions.
A winner on the Links of Scotland, Rai may need to summon up those powers once more in Bermuda, but make no mistake the Englishman will fancy the task.
Seven top-25 finishes last season (including useful turns at Mayakoba and Sea Island) confirm Rai’s consistency, and while he’s hardly a flash, household name, any player that ranks inside the top-50 of the PGA TOUR for SG: Tee-to-Green has to be given respect.
With an improvement on the greens already witnessed this Fall, Rai looks to be well set for Bermuda.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 23rd
- SG: Approach – 46th
- Scoring Average – 66th
Top Tier Pick #2
Nick Hardy (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 85.8, GPFP: 68.65 Salary: $9,800)
You would think there’s ample reasons to eschew the top of the field this week and leverage some lower down the pecking order, and Nick Hardy certainly fits the bill.
He came to prominence last season when backing a T14 finish at the US Open with a top-10 at the John Deere Classic, and Hardy bettered that earlier in the Fall when he was T5 at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Last season Hardy showed real quality with the flat stick, and yet this time around his putting strokes has gone walkabouts – yet he ranks seventh for SG: Approach, and so if both elements can be brought together in Bermuda then Hardy can have a tremendous week.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 25th
- SG: Putting – 61st
- Birdie Average – 67th
Mid-Tier Pick #1
Alex Smalley (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 55.5, GPFP: 44.40 Salary: $9,500)
Last season, Alex Smalley ranked inside the top-60 on the PGA TOUR for strokes gained Off-the-Tee and on Approach, but 159th for Putting.
So far during the Fall campaign, Smalley ranks 32nd for Putting and 161st from Tee-to-Green.
We might describe the New Yorker as ‘enigmatic’ then, but there’s no doubt he has high potential upside given the excellent ball-striking he showed last term.
It’s been a fallow time so far this season, with T25 at the ZOZO Championship his best in four starts, but Smalley has a T12 finish to his name at Royal Port and was T2 at the Corales Puntacana Championship, so there’s ample reason to be bullish about his chances.
Key Stats:
- Greens in Regulation – 37th
- SG: Approach – 52nd
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 57th
Mid-Tier Pick #2
Peter Malnati (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 52.5, GPFP: 42.00 Salary: $7,200)
It goes without saying that prolific birdie-makers with a reliable short game stand an excellent chance at the Bermuda Championship, so it will be interesting to see how Peter Malnati fares this week.
So often hamstrung by a lack of length off the tee and a mediocre approach game, Malnati has established himself as a PGA TOUR veteran on the back of a putting stroke that is the envy of many, and it’s that prowess on the greens that makes him a lively contender this week.
Load up Malnati’s OWGR profile and you’ll note that some of his best points-winning efforts have come at the Sony Open, Tournament of Champions and Pebble Beach, so evidently short, coastal tracks are amongst his favorite conditions.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 41st
- SG: Putting – 57th
- Approaches from 150-175 yards – 64th
Low-Tier Pick
Max McGreevy (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 22.2, GPFP: 17.74 Salary: $6,300)
Okay, so you’re going to have to stick with us here.
Max McGreevy’s current form is woeful, however this is a guy who qualified for the FedEx Cup on the back of a largely consistent 2021-22 season, during which he was accurate off the tee and excellent on approach between 75-100 yards.
Those are useful weapons in the bag at Royal Port, where short range approaches can set up birdie opportunities on all three Par 5s and a couple of the Par 4s, and so if something clicks for McGreevy this derisory salary could become an absolute bargain.
Solo second at the Puerto Rico Open last term, McGreevy is admittedly a longshot but one who could pop if he finds something on the range in the next few days.
Key Stats:
- Approaches from 125-150 yards – 6th
- Approaches from 100-125 yards – 32nd
- Driving Accuracy – 48th
Sleeper Pick for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Austin Smotherman (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 60.4, GPFP: 48.30 Salary: $7,500)
For number nerds who enjoy taking a deep dive into the stats, Austin Smotherman was an enigma last season on the PGA TOUR.
He ranked inside the top-50 for SG: Tee-to-Green – absolutely no mean feat given the quality of those around him, and yet Smotherman recorded just one top-10 finish all-season long.
The issue? You guessed it: putting, for which the Californian returned some truly wretched numbers. But behold, in two of his three starts this season he has actually gained strokes on the field with the flat stick, and so who knows perhaps a revolution is in order.
Smotherman has played golf here, there and everywhere in a young career that has taken in the Korn Ferry and Latinoamerica Tours, and he should be able to adjust nicely to conditions on Bermuda.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 24th
- Greens in Regulation – 32nd
- SG: Approach – 32nd
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Kevin Yu (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 64.5, GPFP: 51.60 Salary: $7,300)
If its unheralded, under-the-radar sorts you are after in your draft this week, Kevin Yu might be a name to remember.
The 24-year-old has been a revelation so far this season, ranking 12th for SG: Tee-to-Green in what has been a stripe show – albeit one with a mixed bag of a formline of 37-19-MC.
Putting is seemingly his achilles heel, but he will give little away in terms of ball-striking quality to this field, and with top-10s in Puerto Rico and at the Australian Open this is clearly a guy comfortable in the wind.
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 14th
- Birdie Average – 37th
- SG: Approach – 53rd
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
[/membership]
Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2021-2022)
Tourneys Played '21 -'22
Season Earnings YTD
Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship with other Premium Members.
Cover Photo via Instagram
What’s Really Going on with LIV Golf?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist’s New GTS Driver Lineup Spotted on Tour
New Shot Scope LM1: The Best Budget Launch Monitor Under $200?
FIRST LOOK: Titleist Unveils New Vokey WedgeWorks Grind Lineup
Did LIV Golf Finally Get its Big Breakthrough?
Blind Ranking The Most Iconic Masters Moments
We Played This Old Golf Course Where Thomas Edison Was A Member
Are You MEASURING Your Golf Swing Correctly? (This Can Help)
Zach Johnson Explains Why He Didn’t Pick Bryson DeChambeau for the Ryder Cup
Justin Thomas FIRES Coach before Ryder Cup…Who’s Next?
