Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Farmers Insurance Open
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open
Farmers Insurance Open Fantasy Preview
Last week the narrative was of a leader throwing away their advantage – Russell Henley the ‘guilty party’ at the Sony Open.
But so often when looking at the negative side of the business end of elite golf tournaments, we lose sight of the positives – not so at the American Express on Sunday.
The pessimists will point the finger of blame at Lee Hodges and Paul Barjon, the co 54-hole leaders who are – at this level at least – inexperienced at the thick end of events.
But lets instead save our words for Hudson Swafford, who once again showed his steel under pressure to clinch what is his third PGA TOUR title.
A handful of shots off the lead despite an opening round of 70 at the easier La Quinta course, Swafford had worked his way back into the event and looked a dangerous chaser heading into the final 18.
And so it proved. Despite bogeying the first, Swafford rallied with seven birdies in his next eleven holes, and while bogeys at 13 and 15 looked to have derailed his charge, the Georgia Bulldog went one better than his fellow alumnus Henley by nailing a clutch eagle at 16 and securing his second title in this rarefied part of California. A happy hunting ground indeed for Swafford….
The TOUR continues its West Coast swing this week, heading along the coast to La Jolla for the Farmers Insurance Open at the iconic Torrey Pines club.
NOTE: to avoid a clash with the NFL games on Sunday, the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open will start on Wednesday and run through to Saturday.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Lanto Griffin’s T3 finish last week showed a lot of promise. In general, we have big hope for Lanto this season, so don’t be surprised if you see him on a lot of West Coast swing rosters.
So far this wrap-around season so far we have 5 winners picked in just 13 events played. Not a bad start!
Farmers Insurance Open Field
Jon Rahm loves life at Torrey Pines – he won this event in 2017 and the US Open when it was played here in 2021, and despite very much not loving life at the American Express (he described the event as s***, amongst other things, in a covertly taken video posted on Twitter) he leads the field at the Farmers.
He will be joined by the defending champion, Patrick Reed, as well as a host of other big-time players like Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka and – making his first start of 2022 – Dustin Johnson.
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This attractive field is also handed further heft by the presence of former winner Marc Leishman, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Daniel Berger and others – we should enjoy top-notch fare on the West Coast this week.
Look out too for Kamaiu Johnson, the APGA TOUR ace who was set to play this event in 2021 but had to withdraw following a positive Covid test.
This Week’s Course Preview
As was the case at the American Express, it’s a split-course rotation at Torrey Pines, although thankfully only one round is played away from the main layout.
The North Course, which will host one of the players’ opening two rounds, is a 7,258 yard, Par 72 venue designed by William F. Bell. There’s not a great deal to write about what is a fairly generic layout, although it should be noted that the greens are Bentgrass, rather than the Poa Annua surfaces at the South Course.
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So it’s really all about the South Course, which welcomes 75% of the action. And what a layout this is, perched above the Pacific Ocean on dramatic clifftops that are, according to research, eroding with every passing year. Maybe we should fully enjoy Torrey Pines while we still can….
This is a tough old stretch at 7,765 yards for its Par of 72, and it should be noted that in last year’s hosting Reed was the only player to make it to double digits under par. When the US Open stopped by last summer, Rahm won with a score of -6.
With something of a Links feel given its complete exposure to the ocean breeze, Torrey Pines South also boasts tight fairways and smaller-than-average, fast greens, and it’s one of the few courses on the PGA TOUR rotation that genuinely tests every aspect of a player’s game.
Weather Forecast for San Diego, CA
As tends to be the case in this slice of San Diegan real estate, the weather is looking a mixed bag – from a golfing perspective – this week.
The good news is that there should be plenty of sunshine with little chance of rain, although temperatures could stall around the 68˚F mark.
And it’s the wind that could be the most troubling. The early predictions are for fore a breeze around 9-10 mph, but that doesn’t take into account the strong ocean gusts that could easily double that number – it’s going to be a classic Linksy week of cool, windy tournament golf.
Last Year’s Results from the Farmers Insurance Open
The old master was up to his best tricks at the Farmers last year, with Patrick Reed’s mesmeric short game leading him to a five-stroke margin of victory.
Reed was pretty much a wire-to-wire winner, backed by a better driving display than we are perhaps used to from him allied to his standard brilliance on and around the greens – ranking first and tenth for SG: ARG and Putting respectively.
Carlos Ortiz was an interested party – he was the joint leader after 54 holes – but a horror show on Sunday, where he fired an eight bogey-or-worse 78, very quickly condemned the Mexican to an almighty slide down the leaderboard.
And so it was left for Reed (-14) to wrap up victory, which he did courtesy of a round of 68 that contained just one bogey. Five players – Finau, Hovland, Schauffele, Palmer and Norlander – watched on at -9 in T2.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Farmers Insurance Open this Week
It’s a high-grade tournament this week, and with a quality field meeting in San Diego we know that drafting a number of rosters is the equitable way to play it. So, here’s the best of the multi-entry contests you can play:
- PGA $800k Pitch and Putt: It will cost you $20 for each entry you make here, but with $200k for the winner and plenty of sizable cash payouts – the top 30 win at least $1k – there’s still plenty of leverage to be gained.
- PGA $250k 8-Iron: It’s unlikely that many 8-irons will be used this week, but this contest – which costs $8 a turn – offers a guaranteed payout to the top 25% of teams, plus a jackpot of $25k.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Farmers Insurance Open
It’s perhaps most telling that each of the last eight winners of this event were priced at 50/1 or shorter with the sportsbooks – confirmation, of course, that classy operators tend to win big events at quality golf courses.
Reed, Leishman, Rose, Day, Rahm….that’s a classy bunch, and it’s notable that four of those five most recent winners of the Farmers also have a major championship to their name (and Leishman lost in a playoff at the British Open, of course).
So we know that quality is the order of the day at Torrey Pines South, although there’s different ways of going about your business. Reed hit plenty of fairways, but found that his long-range iron game was cold – not to worry when you have a scrambling/short game like his.
Leishman, on the other hand, was errant off the tee but hit some outstanding approaches from the rough, capitalizing on them on the greens with a rocksteady putting stroke. Rahm, meanwhile, ranked inside the top 20 for all four of the key Strokes Gained categories.
There’s plenty of ways to crack the code at Torrey Pines South, but it’s essential that long-range approaches – we’re talking 200+ yards – are knocked onto the green, or where putting surfaces are missed that a crafty short game is deployed.
And the greens at Torrey Pines rate as some of the trickiest on the PGA TOUR rotation, so only those with a sure hand need apply.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Farmers Insurance Open
Top Tier Pick #1:
Jon Rahm (Odds: 7/1, FPPG: 82.2, GPFP: 73.95 Salary: $11,200)
He’s fast becoming an annual auto-lock at Torrey Pines.
But it’s impossible to contend with Rahm’s obvious love of this golf club, and it helps that his game is perfectly attuned to Torrey Pines South – 1-29-5-2-7 is his formline in this event, and of course he won the US Open here in 2021 as well.
The beauty with Rahm here is that you sense he will play well no matter what the conditions, whether it’s set fair or a strong wind blows, and we’re happy to overlook his mediocre return at the American Express last time out – as has been shown on social media, the Spaniard’s Mediterranean temperament got the better of him.
He’ll be on his best behavior at his favorite golf course on the planet, and while his salary eats up a lot of his capital there are few golfer-course combinations that are married so beautifully as Rahm at Torrey Pines.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 5th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 7th
- SG: Approach – 12th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Will Zalatoris (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 88.7, GPFP: 70.97 Salary: $9,200)
It’s something of a risk to back a PGA TOUR maiden in an event of this repute, but it’s also hard to ignore the case put forward by Will Zalatoris this week.
He finished T6 at the American Express despite ranking a lowly 59th for SG: Putting at the Stadium Course, but a switch from Bermuda to Poa Annua greens will surely serve the Californian well.
A top-10 at Torrey Pines in 2021 was matched by T8 turns at Kiawah Island and Corales GC – two courses we believe had some correlation with this San Diego stretch, and as a player whose best paydays in golf so far have come in elite company, we don’t need to worry about Zalatoris’ qualities despite his tender years.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 7th
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 23rd
- Scrambling – 39th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Max Homa (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 81.6, GPFP: 74.26 Salary: $8,400)
We’ve written often in these pages of our admiration for Max Homa’s golf game, and our belief is that he will one day be considered a top-10 player in the world – he’s already up to 35 in the OWGR.
This is a guy that is excellent in all departments, and that all-round strength is proven by a return of 9-18 in his last two trips to Torrey Pines.
Homa played some glorious stuff on his way to T15 at the Tournament of Champions, and it’s a return to the West and Poa Annua greens – where he does his best work – that really gets the juices flowing.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 24th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 36th
- SG: Putting – 79th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Francesco Molinari (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 48.0, GPFP: 56.82 Salary: $7,500)
There has been a long history of quality operators and former major champions thriving at Torrey Pines, so taking a chance that Francesco Molinari’s revival isn’t a mirage is a smart play.
The Italian has been in the doldrums for quite some time now, but he appears to be shaking off those woes – as evidenced by T6 at the American Express, where at one point on Sunday he found himself tied for the lead.
Accurate off the tee and excellent around the greens, Molinari ranked 19th at the Stadium Course for SG: Approach, and while that’s not necessarily an arbiter of a return to major-winning form, the former British Open champion has the pedigree and the game to make it count at Torrey Pines.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 25th
- SG: Approach – 27th
- Scrambling – 57th
Low-Tier Pick:
Matt Jones (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 70.3, GPFP: 89.84 Salary: $7,000)
From the sublime to the ridiculous.
Matt Jones ended his effort at the Tournament of Champions with rounds of 61 and 62, and then proceeded to somehow miss the cut the following week at the Sony Open.
What we do know is that his short game was in fine working order at the former, and that’s a weapon that will serve him well around the small greens at Torrey Pines South.
Another for whom the presence of wind appears to be a help rather than a hindrance, Jones has a patchy record at Torrey Pines, but he approaches this week’s hosting in his best form for quite some time.
Key Stats:
- SG: Around-the-Green – 6th
- Scrambling – 22nd
- SG: Putting – 67th
Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open
Tom Hoge (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 75.2, GPFP: 60.12 Salary: $7,500)
It was a case of so near and yet so far for Tom Hoge at the American Express – his tilt at a first senior win in more than a decade coming up short in solo second.
That followed an opening round of 66 at the Sony Open and T5 at the RSM Classic, so there’s of good vibes in the Hoge household right now – he is very much trending towards that first victory.
He’s been a ‘boom and bust’ sort at Torrey Pines in the past, but T5 and T12 finishes in amongst the missed cuts serve notice of his fondness for the layouts.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 5th
- Scrambling – 16th
- Scoring Average – 20th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Farmers Insurance Open
Kyle Stanley (Odds: 225/1, FPPG: 46.3, GPFP: 38.88 Salary: $6,900)
When you draft guys like Kyle Stanley, you are taking an almighty leap of faith.
But when it comes off at this kind of salary point, you feel like a daily fantasy golf apostle – and there’s enough in the tank to suggest that Stanley is worth a punt.
His ball-striking was in fine fettle at the Sony Open, where he carded two rounds of 66 on his way to T27, and that weak putting stroke may be helped somewhat by a return to a happy hunting ground – Stanley hasn’t missed a trip to Torrey Pines in a decade, racking up a T2 finish, two other top-20s and a T25 in that span.
The ultimate hit and miss golfer, if Stanley finds something in his short game – a big if – he can make a mockery of his throwaway salary this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 22nd
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 35th
- Scoring Average – 72nd
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
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