Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Fortinet Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Fortinet Championship 

Fortinet Championship Fantasy Preview

The 2022-23 PGA TOUR season is upon us!

It feels like an eternity since Rory McIlroy lifted the Fed Ex Cup to cap the 2021-22 campaign. The Irishman managed to reel in Scottie Scheffler to bank the big bucks and be crowned ‘season champion’, and while Scheffler has since been crowned PGA TOUR Plyer of the Year, that will surely have been of little comfort to him.

The global appeal of McIlroy will be key in helping the TOUR stave off the existential threat from LIV Golf, whose ranks have been swelled by a number of ‘rebels’ this summer including British Open champion Cameron Smith, Joaquin Niemann and Harold Varner III. Stalwarts like Bubba Watson, Marc Leishman, Cameron Tringale and Charles Howell III have also made the move, and the PGA now find themselves in a quandary at what they can do to prevent further leakage.

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A court date early next year will determine the future landscape for golf – it’s likely the LIV rebels will be allowed to play in the majors, ranking points notwithstanding, and so the PGA have to accept that this threat to their future existence is very much real in a sport where money, as it often does in life, talks the loudest.

They have reacted by nominating four more as-yet-unnamed tournaments for ‘elevated’ status, which essentially means the fields will be of a better quality. This will be the final wraparound season too – the PGA will revert to a calendar year as of 2024 – while the FedEx Cup will be reduced to just 70 qualifiers from the outset.

So it’s a season of change, in many ways, and matters get underway with the traditional curtain-raiser that is the Fortinet Championship.

Last Year’s Fantasy Results

We ended last season with 9 winners picked, 5 runner ups, and a TON of made cuts (66% of picks made made the the cut in 2021-2022 season). 

This year we’re looking to build on the success of 21-22 and get even more wins under the belt, including Majors.

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Fortinet Championship Field

It’s something of a coup that PGA chiefs were able to persuade Hideki Matsuyama, arguably the biggest draw in golf over in Asia, to stick around and not sign a deal with LIV as was rumored.

The Japanese star will tee it up in California alongside defending champion Max Homa, and the sportsbooks are unable to separate that duo and Corey Conners at the head of the betting market.

There will be plenty of others in this field who will want to get their season up and running in the best possible way, with the likes of Rookie of the Year nominee Sahith Theegala, Maverick McNealy and Taylor Pendrith perhaps all eyeing their maiden PGA TOUR title.

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We’ll get our first glimpse of the latest batch of Korn Ferry Tour graduates too. Only time will tell as to who of those takes to the golfing elite best, although at first glance the likes of Justin Suh, Carl Yuan and Thomas Detry, something of a stalwart on the DP World Tour, seem best placed to thrive.

This Week’s Course Preview

After a few weeks of nothingness, Silverado is the ideal host for dusting off the cobwebs.

The North Course at this Napa real estate offers plenty of birdie opportunities and little in the way of obstacles, and while the fairways tend to be of a narrow nature the rough is such that it’s easy enough to get back on-line – the rollcall of bombers that have won this event in recent times is testament to that.

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At 7,123 yards for its Par 72, the North Course is short enough to give everyone a fair chance, although there’s a clear sign that the longer hitters have a clear edge, so hitting bombs and then approaching well from the 75-150 yard range is the key.

The Poa Annua greens are large in size and run pretty slow – it’s pretty cool in Napa at this time of year outside of the main daylight hours, and so the dancefloors remain dense and pristine.

There are occasional bunkers and bits of water on this Ben Harmon design, but in general the theme is one of early-season low scoring – that’s aided by a three-hole finish that incorporates two Par 5s and a drivable Par 4. 

Weather Forecast for Napa, CA

Top temperatures of around 77˚F will be pleasing enough for the players this week, although you should note how cool the AM wave will feel each day.

The mercury will barely scrape 53˚F for those hardy souls teeing off at 07:00, and while these sorts of things can level themselves out over the course of 72 holes, you maybe don’t want your fantasy picks to be shivering at dawn light as they set out to win the tournament.

Otherwise, there’s minimal chance of rain – as you would expect in this part of the country – and the wind speeds will hover at round 10mph throughout the four days.

NAPA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Fortinet Championship

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It takes a bit of all-sorts to win the Fortinet Championship, and that’s exactly what Max Homa brought 12 months ago.

He averaged more than 310 yards off the tee, approached well from close range and putted well – anybody that ranks second for SG: Tee-to-Green and 12th for Putting in tandem is going to go pretty close to winning a golf tournament.

Homa proved that the North Course is a venue where you can give away ground and still catch up – a so-so opening 36 holes of 67-72 were followed by a pair of weekends 65s as the champion clicked into gear.

He still needed a solid stint through that volatile final three holes – birdieing 16 and 17 and making par at the last – to see off the challenge of Maverick McNealy, whose bizarre conclusion saw him make a double-bogey at the penultimate hole prior to an eagle at the last.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Fortinet Championship this Week

So how are we going to kick off the new season….by going in hard and fast or treading carefully? It’s a tough decision, and so here’s a contest that satisfies both the high risk-reward players and the more conservative.

• PGA TOUR $20K Long Drive: If the excitement of the new season is such that you want to get off to the best possible start, then this $100 entry game only features 222 teams and could see you net a cool $3,000 to set you up perfectly for the new campaign.

• PGA TOUR $100K Drive the Green: The low budget pick of the week is arguably the Drive the Green game, where you’ll get up to 20 entries – at $5 per turn – to draft the lineup that wins the $25k top prize. 

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Fortinet Championship this Week

The last five winners of this event have been Homa, Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway and Brendan Steele, and you don’t need to be Inspector Clouseau to figure out what they all have in common.

To a man, they are long 300+ yard drivers of the golf ball, and given that the rough is down – and the holes are reasonably short for the most part on the North Course – again you don’t need to be an FBI agent to work out the winning formula in the Fortinet Championship.

Other strategies have enjoyed success here, but for context in last year’s edition nine of the first ten players on the leaderboard averaged over 300 yards off the tee, and in T6 Patrick Rodgers found just 28% of fairways.

So hitting quality approaches from 150 yards and shorter, be it from the short grass or the longer stuff, is vital this week, as is stuffing a few putts down the hole.

If you are looking for correlating courses, the likes of TPC Scottsdale, TPC San Antonio and even Colonial tend to favor bombers with excellent short-range approach games, but remember that we’re on Poa Annua greens this week – that in itself suits some players far more than others.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Fortinet Championship  

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Fortinet Championship 

Top Tier Pick #1

Cam Davis (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 81.7, GPGP: 52.77 Salary: $9,600)

It’s easy enough to make a case for Matsuyama, Homa or Conners this week – all premium operators, they have the length and the quality from 150 yards and in to compile a winning score at Silverado.

But weeks away from competitive golf may have blunted their advantage somewhat, and instead there’s plenty to be said for the chances of a couple of young guns with power to spare.

The first is Cam Davis, who at the age of 27 must feel it’s time he shook off the talented youngster tag and began adding to his sole PGA TOUR title at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which incidentally is another event where those with a superior wedge game have an edge. 

Although he didn’t make it to the TOUR Championship, the Australian did round out his season with four consecutive top-20 finishes prior to the BMW Championship, so he will be itching for the new campaign to begin.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 100-125 yards – 9th
• Approaches from 125-150 yards – 25th
• Driving Distance – 35th

Top Tier Pick #2

 Taylor Pendrith (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 69.0, GPGP: 56.19 Salary: $9,800)

Our second young bomber pick was a straight dogfight between Taylor Pendrith and Maverick McNealy.

McNealy has previous in this event – he was solo second a year ago, and has plenty of prior form on Poa Annua.

But he has tripped himself up a few times in contention, and Pendrith was trending nicely towards the tailend of an injury-hit season.

The Canadian arguably should have won the Rocket Mortgage Classic, but that was pretty much his debut at the business end of a PGA TOUR event and – hopefully – he will draw strength from that.

In his six tournaments after returning from injury, Pendrith finished T13 or better in five of them….he will be hoping for a continuation of that form heading into the new term.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 10th
• Birdie Average – 26th
• Approaches from 50-125 yards – 30th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Troy Merritt (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 60.3, GPGP: 80.16 Salary: $8,700)

Although he’s not the archetypal type of player you would expect to thrive at Silverado, Troy Merritt has a T4 and two other top-20s at the layout to his name.

Maybe that’s because he seems to raise his game exponentially on Poa Annua greens – our database going back ten years certainly suggests this is by far his most prosperous surface, and Merritt also has plenty of quality in the 125-150 approach yardage range.

With form at the relatively correlating – approach distance wise – Pebble Beach and Colonial, maybe it’s not such a surprise after all that Merritt has thrived at Silverado despite his lack of length.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 38th
• Scoring Average – 39th
• Approaches from 125-150 yards – 39th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Wyndham Clark (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 59.5, GPGP: 46.82 Salary: $7,800)

Now that Bryson has departed for pastures new, Wyndham Clark is challenging for the title of the longest hitter on the PGA TOUR.

That status alone means very little, but there have been signs lately that Clark has started to develop his wedge and short iron game to the point where he can kick on in his career.

Finishes like T8 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, T16 at the Scottish Open and even T28 n a stacked field at the St Jude Championship came on the back of much-improved approach play, and for a reliable putter that has been an eye-catching improvement indeed.

With nine top-10 finishes to his name on the PGA TOUR, could the tenth finally bring Clark his maiden victory?

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 4th
• SG: Putting – 31st
• Approaches from 100-125 yards (rough) – 32nd

Low-Tier Pick

Luke List (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 48.5, GPGP: 41.94 Salary: $7,000)

Luke List is one of those bizarre oddities that hits approach shots just as accurately from the rough as he does the short grass, and averaging 314 yards off the tee it’s not a surprise to learn he spends plenty of time amongst the thick stuff.

There’s one club that separates List from more concerted success on the PGA TOUR and that’s the putter, and to be honest we don’t have any niceties to say about that.

Except, perhaps, that List tends to raise his game on Poa Annua greens – as evidenced by his win at Torrey Pines back in January. The mind of a golfer can be a strange old thing, so maybe List can summon up some more magic on the Poa greens of Silverado. 

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 12th
• SG: Approach – 17th
• Approaches from 125-150 yards (rough) – 33rd

Sleeper Pick for the Fortinet Championship

Alex Smalley (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 59.8, GPGP: 45.31 Salary: $7,300)

Alex Smalley made it all the way through to the BMW Championship last season, and that’s no mean feat for a rookie in their debut year on the PGA TOUR.

He was consistently good throughout the campaign, but arguably his best performances – relative to the strength of the field – have come since July. Smalley was T10 at the Scottish Open, T13 at the Wyndham Championship and T16 in the John Deere Classic, and those are all quality efforts.

In his sophomore year, Smalley will be looking to build upon his improved ball striking from the second half of last season – he certainly has the power to thrive at Silverado, now all he needs to do is putt better on Poa Annua. 

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 50th
• SG: Approach – 52nd
• Scoring Average – 56th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Fortinet Championship

James Hahn (Odds: 140/1, FPPG: 55.1, GPGP: 65.66 Salary: $6,800)

Although he’s now the wrong side of 40 (sorry, James), Hahn can still hang with the young guns and regularly averages 300 yards off the tee.

So he has the length to thrive at Silverado – proven perhaps by a T9 finish here in 2020, and not unlike many that spend their formative years in California, Hahn also seems to enjoy like on Poa Annua greens. 

Form at a number of our correlating courses only serves to strengthen the feeling that Hahn, at the peak of powers, should take to the North Course rather nicely.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 75-100 yards – 28th
• Total Driving – 45th
• Approaches from 50-75 yards – 49th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions Last Season (2021-2022)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”3.98%” bar_text=12 out of 301 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”19.93%” bar_text=”60 out of 301 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”34.89%” bar_text=105 out of 301 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”20.93%” bar_text=”9 out of 43 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”11.62%” bar_text=”5 out of 43 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”66.78″ bar_text=”201 out of 301 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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Cover Photo via Instagram