Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta
Mexico Open at Vidanta Fantasy Preview
Patrick Cantlay exorcized the demons of losing out in a playoff to Jordan Spieth at the RBC Heritage by partnering Xander Schauffele to victory in the Zurich Classic at the weekend.
The pair are well-matched given that they both play a no-frills, almost flair-free brand of golf, and that intensity stood them in good stead as they took the lead after the first round and saw out a wire-to-wire win.
They posted a 59 in Thursday’s best ball round, and never looked back – seeing off the threat of Zurich Classic specialist and former Louisiana college student Sam Burns by two shots. Cantlay and Schauffele broke the tournament scoring record, and now have 12 PGA TOUR titles between them.
There’s something of a descent into the PGA Championship now in May, but first there’s a stop-off for the TOUR south of the border for the Mexico Open at Vidanta.
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
What a wild week in New Orleans, and let us be the first to say SORRY for not picking Cantlay/Xander. But man were we fighting hard for our guy NeSmith who ended up with a T4 finish, which unfortunately was our best outcome of the week.
Luckily the team event is behind us, so let’s get back to some more traditional DFS this week.
Mexico Open at Vidanta Field
While all the best will in the world is intended, a golf event with a top five in the betting of Jon Rahm, Daniel Berger, Tony Finau, Abraham Ancer and Gary Woodland has to be filed under the ‘weak field’ category.
Kevin Na and Patrick Reed are also in the hunt, while the likes of Cameron Tringale, Kevin Streelman and Sebastian Munoz must be wondering if this could be their week to add a new trophy to their collection.
Alongside Ancer, the home challenge will be led by Carlos Ortiz and former Korn Ferry Tour winner Roberto Diaz, while an array of amateurs and newcomers to PGA TOUR action – including the fantastically-named Turk Pettit – will be hoping to take their chance on the big stage.
This Week’s Course Preview
It’s a brand-new course for the PGA TOUR rotation this week, and as such there will be plenty of guess work involved.
We do know that Vidanta is a huge facility with a number of different layouts, but the one to be used for the Mexico Open is the Greg Norman designed ‘Signature’ course.
It boasts some similarities to another Norman layout, TPC San Antonio, with its length from tee to flag (7,456 yards for its Par 71) and some generous room to work with both off the peg and on approach to the green.
The rough is said to be low too, and when you read reviews posted by even average club players about Vidanta, most reveal that this is a fairly straightforward course to enjoy.
The complications could come from the wind, because Vidanta looks to be pretty exposed to the elements with minimal tree coverage. There’s 55 bunkers and lakes in play on six holes, but for the most part this is likely to be a Texas Open style challenge of controlled ball-striking….with plenty of birdie opportunities to savor.
Of course, one major difference to note is that the greens are Paspalum this week – these can be slow and pretty grainy, and so there is some worth in backing those that have prospered on the surface in the past.
Weather Forecast for Vallarta, MEX
It’s your classic Mexican week in April – hot, dry and windy.
The thermometer could peak at 86˚F over the weekend, while the early predictions are suggesting there is very little chance of rain with bright sunshine the order of the week.
As for the breeze, that could be something to keep an eye on as the forecast right now is saying 12mph across the four days – at ground level, and with little tree cover, that could be a factor this week.
Last Year’s Results from the Mexico Open at Vidanta
This is the maiden edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta, so no prior results are available for this event.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Mexico Open at Vidanta this Week
Decisions, decisions. We’ve got a weak field event in a different country at a layout that we’ve never seen before from a tournament perspective. So how do we play it from a daily fantasy perspective? Low key might be the way to go, so let’s try a risk-and-reward approach this week.
- PGA $400k Drive the Green: Hopefully, we can score a few cashes here to play for our tilt at the single entry contest mentioned next. For $5 a turn, we can try and win the $50k top prize….but perhaps the smart play is to try and consider the Mexico Open as an event for profit accumulation, rather than world domination.
- PGA $40k Albatross: If you are feeling confident about the way your line-up is shaping up despite the many ‘unknowns’ this week, perhaps a single entry contest is the way to maximize your edge – for $12, you can fight it out for the $4k top prize here.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Mexico Open at Vidanta
Hmm, let’s try and analyze the Mexico Open at Vidanta by focusing on what we do know.
We know that golf in Mexico appeals to some players more than others, and that the slow, grainy Paspalum greens can create leaderboards packed with surprises.
Greg Norman has a habit of designing golf courses that the top pros can take apart – the likes of El Camaleon, also in Mexico, and TPC San Antonio tend to yield when conditions allow.
The fairways are generously proportioned – even the venue’s marketing materials say that, and having studied hundreds of images online we would say that the greens are a decent size as well….they’re certainly not Dye-esque in stature, anyway.
Some are undulating and some are protected by bunkers, but for the most part we’re expecting a sizable GIR count given how slow and receptive we expect the greens to be.
It’s worth keeping an eye on the wind, which the forecasters are pegging at breezy but manageable right now, and if that stays the case then something of a Paspalum putting contest is likely.
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Mexico Open at Vidanta
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Mexico Open at Vidanta
Top Tier Pick #1:
Patrick Reed (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 64.9, GPFP: 51.92 Salary: $10,000)
If you believe what the sportsbooks are intimating, Jon Rahm simply has to remember to bring his clubs in order to win the Mexico Open.
But he’ll have to improve upon his recent form to get the ‘W’, while it’s hard to conclude that Daniel Berger, Abraham Ancer and Tony Finau are at their best right now and looking likely to win.
So you wonder if the positivity that Patrick Reed has taken from a solid couple of weeks might see his return to confidence continue. T26 at the Players Championship was followed by T35 at The Masters, and while those finishes won’t blow your socks off those are two tournaments where you simply have to play well to make the cut, let alone thrive over the weekend.
A former winner in Mexico and a Texas Open runner-up at TPC San Antonio, Reed should feel comfortable on this Greg Norman layout and has the putting chops on Paspalum to finally contend once more.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 28th
- Birdie Average – 67th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 81st
Top Tier Pick #2:
Aaron Wise (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 65.8, GPFP: 52.68 Salary: $9,500)
A solid ball striker with some previous on Paspalum greens, Aaron Wise could come up trumps for his backers this week.
Ranking 30th for SG: Tee-to-Green this season, Wise is evidently setting up plenty of scoring opportunities for himself – 144th for SG: Putting confirms why he hasn’t improved upon his two top-10 finishes this term.
But for a player that finished solo second at the Mayakoba Classic in 2020, we have to assume that Wise will enjoy the sluggish pace of Vidanta’s Paspalum greens this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 30th
- Greens in Regulation – 30th
- Birdie Average – 56th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Anirban Lahiri (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 51.9, GPFP: 47.27 Salary: $7,900)
It’s a strange world when Anirban Lahiri is being drafted as a mid-tier pick, but hear us out.
He’s in better form than many in this field, with that second-place finish at the PLAYERS Championship matched by T13 at the correlating TPC San Antonio for the Texas Open.
The well-travelled Indian clearly has immense experience on Paspalum greens, and so the signs seem to be aligning for him this week – can he go one better than his TPC Sawgrass heartbreak?
Key Stats:
- SG: Off-the-Tee – 44th
- SG: Around-the-Green – 78th
- SG: Putting – 118th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
Adam Long (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 58.3, GPFP: 46.63 Salary: $7,800)
Adam Long tends to putt well on every surface, truth be told, but his record on Paspalum greens is outstanding.
Two of his best pay days have come via top-three finishes in the Mayakoba Classic in Mexico, and that you suspect is because of the greens but also due to his fondness for coastal golf – a top-five at Punta Cana and T12 at the RBC Heritage are testament to that.
T35 at the Texas Open, followed by that strong showing at the RBC Heritage, is encouragement a-plenty in this field.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 17th
- Scrambling – 24th
- Scoring Average – 53rd
Low-Tier Pick:
Adam Svensson (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 54.9, GPFP: 43.95 Salary: $7,300)
A player whose results perhaps don’t match his ball-striking prowess is Adam Svensson.
The Canadian is solid off the tee and ranks 47th on TOUR for SG: Approach, so he’s plenty of quality with irons in hand – in this sparse field, that should stand him in excellent stead.
Of course, like many tee-to-green aces before him, Svensson’s short game is something of a muddle, but given that some of the best efforts of his career have come in squally, coastal non-US mainland tests in the Bahamas, Punta Cana and Hawaii suggests that the slower and less pure the greens the better.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 47th
- Greens in Regulation – 51st
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 88th
Sleeper Pick for the Mexico Open at Vidanta
Nate Lashley (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 57.5, GPFP: 45.98 Salary: $7,500)
A missed cut at the RBC Heritage ended a happy run of form for Nate Lashley, who had previously strung together four consecutive top-30 finishes on TOUR – including T7 at the correlating Puerto Rico Open.
That is one of many strong performances on Paspalum that Lashley has put in over the years, and he just seems to have a knack for rolling the rock on these grainy surfaces.
A three-time winner on the South American Tour, Lashley’s ability to turn it on south of the United States makes him a person of interest this week.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 56th
- SG: Putting – 69th
- Greens in Regulation – 87th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Mexico Open at Vidanta
Vince Whaley (Odds: 160/1, FPPG: 59.2, GPFP: 47.35 Salary: $6,800)
Load up the best performances of Vince Whaley’s career and you’ll see events played in the Bahamas, Bermuda, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and Mexico high up the list.
That is partly due to the fact that the tournaments in question are of a lower grade, but let’s not overlook the fact that clearly Whaley thrives by the coast and, by and large, away from the US.
A hopeless run of missed cuts was halted by back-to-back top-30 finishes in Punta Cana and Texas, and so there’s just enough positivity about Whaley to suggest he can outperform this lowly salary status.
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting – 42nd
- Birdie Average – 52nd
- Driving Distance – 94th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
Tourneys Played '21 -'22
Season Earnings YTD
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