Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Valero Texas Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Valero Texas Open 

Valero Texas Open Fantasy Preview

How’s your 2022 going so far?

If it’s anything like Scottie Scheffler’s, more power to you. He has just wrapped up his third PGA TOUR win of the year, catapulting him up to number one in the world rankings. With just 92 professional appearances to his name, only Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth ascended to the apex of golf quicker.

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Scheffler’s latest success came at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, where he overcame a tough group featuring British Ryder Cup veterans Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood and Ian Poulter, before breezing through a tough bracket – defending champion Billy Horschel, Seamus Power and Dustin Johnson were swept aside.

That set up a final with Kevin Kisner, marking his third appearance in the finale of this event in four years. But he was powerless to prevent Scheffler’s 4&3 inexorable rise to the top, with the new world number one banking $2 million for his troubles and the status of the best golfer on the planet….numerically speaking, at least.

Being top dog puts something of a target on your back, and Scheffler will go off at Augusta next week as one of the favorites to slip into the green jacket. But in the meantime, there’s the slightly distracting Valero Texas Open to consider this week.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Our shining stars last week were Seamus Power (5), as well as Rahm and Horschel who both went deep but finished T9 each. 

On our Tuesday Sleeper Report, our guy Corey Connors finished in an impressive 3rd place finish which helped DFS players rack up some quality points.

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Valero Texas Open Field

This Week’s Course Preview

It would be foolhardy to put the players through the ringer a week shy of The Masters, and so naturally the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is a fairly forgiving layout.

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Designed by Greg Norman, this 7,438 yard, Par 72 features pretty amiable rough and some large green complexes, so it’s highly likely that the GIR count will be high depending on the wind – more on that later.

There’s little in the way of tree cover from the breeze, and with plenty of undulations and elevation changes, more than 60 bunkers and three different water hazards, there are obstacles to be found.

But, for the most part, low scoring is easy to come by on the Oaks, with winning scores in the low teens under par the general theme here.

The once Bermuda greens, which were overseeded with Poa a few years ago, have now been taken over largely by the alien surface, and that will ensure a nice purity to the dancefloors – albeit they run at a fairly stodgy 11 on the stimp.

Like a number of Texan tracks, it’s the wind that defines how malleable – or otherwise – TPC San Antonio is, so the weather forecast is all-importance once more.

Weather Forecast for San Antonio, TX

And on which note….we have a typically Texan week ahead of us.

It’s a dry and hot forecast, with sunshine and cloudy spells and temperatures peaking at around the 89˚F mark.

The wind on Thursday has all the heft of a Will Smith right hook, but by Friday the breeze has picked up to 16mph or stronger – watch out for the possibility of a draw bias across the opening 36 holes.

By the weekend, it’s still warm and the wind has died down to around 11 mph, so conditions could not be any better heading down the home stretch of this tournament.

SAN ANTONIO WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Valero Texas Open

Jordan Spieth snapped a near four-year streak without a win on the PGA TOUR, and the home comforts of Texas were as likely as anywhere to spawn that return to the winner’s circle.

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Rounds of 67 on Thursday and Saturday laid the foundation, and he found himself heading into Sunday’s final round co-leading with PGA TOUR maiden Matt Wallace. Spieth made five birdies on the front nine – including a near ace at the Par 3 third – to accelerate away, and as Wallace became visibly frustrated at his inability to break par, Spieth’s class shone as he played a bogey-free back nine of -3 to lead the field home.

Charley Hoffman recovered from a first round of 75 to finish second, with Wallace, Lucas Glover and Anirban Lahiri rounding out the top five. They were the only players to make it to double digits under par as well.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valero Texas Open this Week

We get it – you’re thinking already about the huge slate for The Masters, and that’s where you plan to go big with your bankroll. But there’s still money to be made this week, and sometimes these weak field events can be the best time to attack.

• PGA $350k Drive the Green: For a low cost, high reward play, why not stump up for a $5 entry into this contest which features a $50k top prize? There’s lots of consolation payouts too that will enable you to pump up your bank in time for Augusta.
• PGA $75k Dogleg: If you’re looking for a ‘one and done’ style contest, this single-entry game pays out $7,500 as a top prize for your $33 entry….and there’s only 2,650 teams in the hunt.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Valero Texas Open  

There can’t be many times when a non-major has been won with a GIR of 58.3%, and that goes to show how strong the wind blew here 12 months ago amid Spieth’s victory.

The grinding conditions played right into the former British Open champion’s hands, of course, and the early forecast suggests that a stiff wind could be in the offing this week as well.

Will those in The Masters field really want to guts it out this week in Texas? It’s a fair question, and this is an event that throws up plenty of surprise winners anyway – at the time, Conners was a rookie at 175/1 sportsbook odds when he won in 2020, while Andrew Landry was even longer at 200/1 when he triumphed 12 months prior to that.

With the rough so amenable at the Oaks Course, you can almost do away with driving concerns – we’d prefer some length off the tee, given this is a long old stretch, but the history books suggest that’s not a deal-breaker.

Instead, the Oaks Course is all about conversion – hitting approaches close and then cleaning up with the flat stick. It’s little wonder that Spieth ranked fourth and sixth respectively for SG: Approach and SG: Putting.

Corey Conners is another iron game whizz, and so we’re looking for those who can hit both long and short distance approaches close to the hole – that’s the best way to tame the charitable Par 5s on this layout.

Interestingly, there may well be an intriguing correlation between the Texas Open and the Desert Classic, despite the latter being played on the other side of the country. Hoffman and Landry have won both in recent memory, Si-Woo Kim could have won the Texas in 2019 (two years prior to his Desert Classic victory) and a pack of players have won at one and finished runner-up at the other.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open  

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open 

Top Tier Pick #1:

Gary Woodland (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 59.5, GPFP: 69.57 Salary: $9,300)

There are some interesting plays at the top of the market, and yet reasons to avoid them all as well.

Rory McIlroy makes his first trip to TPC San Antonio in the best part of a decade, while Hideki Matsuyama will surely have Georgia on his mind. Jordan Spieth hasn’t quite been at his best for a while, and Corey Conners played seven games of golf in five days at the Match Play….he will surely be on coast mode ahead of The Masters.

Gary Woodland will also be in the field at Augusta, but he will surely be realistic about his chances of slipping into the green jacket – instead, this week’s jaunt could offer greater riches.

He’s been playing well for a while now, backing up T5 finishes at the Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer with T21 at the Valspar, and T6 here 12 months ago sets the scene nicely for the four-time PGA TOUR winner who has also finished runner-up in our correlating Desert Classic.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 200+ yards – 25th
• SG: Putting – 44th
• SG: Approach – 44th

Top Tier Pick #2:

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 66.7, GPFP: 82.05 Salary: $9,200)

The upshot for those not qualifying for The Masters is that they simply haven’t been playing well enough to feature on the exclusive list.

Motivation will surely come from missing out, and in Keegan Bradley’s case he might just be playing well enough right now to capitalize on the wandering eye of others in this field.

T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was followed by solo fifth at THE PLAYERS, and Bradley was knocked out of the Match Play despite only losing one of his three games – a pretty tough rub of the green.

He’s shaping up nicely all the same, and Bradley has the statistical fit – barring his mystical putter – to do the business at TPC San Antonio.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 14th
• Approaches from 200+ yards – 15th
• Proximity to Hole – 15th

Mid-Tier Pick #1: 

Adam Hadwin (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 67.7, GPFP: 77.84 Salary: $8,900)

With back-to-back top-10s on the PGA TOUR, Adam Hadwin is in some of the best form of his career.

Those were quality renewals of THE PLAYERS and Valspar Championship, and in some ways the Canadian is making a step down in grade here given the conflicting interests of the best players in the field – we would expect a continuation of his form as a result.

Aside from a lack of length, Hadwin’s tee-to-green game is popping right now, and as a solid putter on all surfaces the tools are at his disposal.

And then consider that this event will be his main focus, given the lack of a Masters tee time, and that he has twice come close to winning the correlating Desert Classic. You would like to think he’ll be eyeing a second PGA TOUR victory here.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 14th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 32nd
• SG: Putting – 38th

Mid-Tier Pick #2:

Brendan Steele (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 53.4, GPFP: 68.86 Salary: $7,600)

A former Desert Classic runner-up that has found some form of late, Brendan Steele is a man of interest at the Texas Open.

T26 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational was followed by T13 at THE PLAYERS Championship, and so a simple mathematical equation confirms he will triumph this week.

Only kidding, but a pair of prior top-10s at The Oaks indicate that this tee-to-green merchant does enjoy the assignment ahead of him in Texas.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 5th
• Proximity to Hole – 47th
• Greens in Regulation – 60th

Low-Tier Pick: 

Troy Merritt (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 66.5, GPFP: 69.12 Salary: $7,300)

A player with a weakness around the greens, Troy Merritt can put his chipping stroke away this week thanks to TPC San Antonio’s generously-proportioned green complexes.

Instead, he can let his excellent approach play to shine, and with quality from 200+ yards right down to the 100-yard mark, Merritt has the through-the-bag ability to post low scores at The Oaks.

He hasn’t necessarily done that here in years gone by, but five cuts made in six tries indicate that he does have the measure of this layout.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 49th
• SG: Approach – 60th
• SG: Putting – 86th

Sleeper Pick for the Valero Texas Open 

David Lipsky (Odds: 140/1, FPPG: 52.5, GPFP: 42.53 Salary: $6,900)

While you wouldn’t necessarily know it at face value, there’s plenty of positivity in David Lipsky’s game right now.

He finished T28 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but that could have been so much better but for a third round of 78. Then he opened with a round of 64 at the Valspar Championship, and finished T7 at the Corales Puntacana….Lipsky is definitely knocking on the door.

Interestingly, he won at TPC San Antonio in 2020 – albeit on a different course, and Lipsky also finished T14 at the correlating Desert Classic.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 46th
• Approaches from 50-125 yards – 58th
• Greens in Regulation – 89th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Valero Texas Open  

Nate Lashley (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 58.9, GPFP: 47.14 Salary: $6,900)

There were plenty of shred judges tipping Nate Lashley for success at the Puerto Rico Open and Corales Puntacana, where he finished T7 and T15 respectively.

So he doesn’t head to Texas in winning form, but he does go there in good heart – especially when that weak-field form is met with a solid T27 at a classy Valspar Championship renewal.

Excellent with his wedges and on the greens, Lashley should enjoy the Par 5s in particular – and a couple of the shorter Par 4s – on the Oaks Course, and he looks to be a solid sleeper play to us.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 45th
• Approaches from 50-125 yards – 52nd
• Birdie Average – 68th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)

[skill_bar heading=”Total Top 3s” percent=”10.13%” bar_text=15 out of 148 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 10s” percent=”19.59%” bar_text=”29 out of 148 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Top 25s” percent=”35.13%” bar_text=52 out of 148 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Winners Picked” percent=”33.33%” bar_text=”7 out of 21 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Runners-Up Picked” percent=”19.04%” bar_text=”4 out of 21 events” style=”background-color: #5fb341″][skill_bar heading=”Total Made Cuts (Includes Sleepers)” percent=”68.91%” bar_text=”102 out of 148 picks” style=”background-color: #5fb341″]

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