Fantasy Golf Predictions
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2022 Valspar Championship
Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2022 Valspar Championship
Valspar Championship Fantasy Preview
Well, what a week that was.
And cometh the hour, cometh the man at the PLAYERS Championship as Cameron Smith clinched his third PGA TOUR title in the most dramatic circumstances.
After five days of weather-affected action, the Aussie burst clear in benign conditions on Sunday, only to hit the water on the 72nd hole when making a fairly regulation approach shot. A winner’s line twitch? Perhaps.
That opened the door for the unlikeliest of potential recipients. Anirban Lahiri was priced at 800/1 with some sportsbooks before a ball had been hit at TPC Sawgrass, and yet he made a mockery of that position by firing his way into the mix with a third round of 67 and refusing to budge thereafter.
A perfect drive on the 72nd hole set up the birdie chance he needed to draw level with Smith, but a wayward iron of his own left the Indian with an all-or-nothing chip from off the green.
He nudged it close, but not close enough and Smith was able to breathe an almighty sigh of relief after one of the most attritional week’s of golf in recent memory.
What will the Copperhead Course have in store for the players this week at the Valspar Championship?
Last Week’s Fantasy Results
Conditions were pretty brutal last weekend at TPC Sawgrass, sending a lot of big names to below the cut line.
Our top three picks last week were JT (T33), Danny Berger (T13), and Shane Lowry (T13).
Overall, not a great showing … so let’s put THE PLAYERS behind us and focus on this week’s Valspar Championship.
Valspar Championship Field
Notwithstanding any withdrawals following the carnage at Sawgrass, some five of the world’s top-10 players are set to tee it up at the Copperhead Course.
Collin Morikawa will make his debut at Innisbrook, and he will be joined by the likes of Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele.
Sam Burns will look to defend what was, at the time, his maiden PGA TOUR title, while a slew of heavyweights – Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Tyrrell Hatton and Joaquin Niemann to name just four – will be looking to wrestle it from him.
Former Valspar champions like Paul Casey and Adam Hadwin will also be looking to hoist the trophy once more in a highly-competitive field.
This Week’s Course Preview
When you note that there two golf courses that Copperhead bears a resemblance to – Augusta National and Bay Hill – you already get a feel for the place.
It’s generally a tough old grind around here – Burns’ winning mark of -18 last year coming in benign conditions with the event shunted to late April, and four of the last five editions prior to Burns’ victory were won at -10 or higher.
The reason for that is a combination of tree-lined, doglegging fairways, typically thick rough (and the imposition of 70+ bunkers and water in play on nine holes) and small, slick Bermuda greens.
There’s some elevation changes into the mix too, which can test the strategy of even the sharpest golfing minds, and any golf course with a closing trio of holes known as the ‘Snake Pit’ is clearly serving up troubles with some regularity. Of them, the final hole – an uphill Par 4 with one of the thinnest fairways on the real estate, and a significantly sloping green – provides a fitting finale.
Note that the Par 71 track, that measures around 7,340 yards, features a unique routing of the standard four Par 5s but five Par 3s as well – there’s plenty of emphasis on solid long-range iron play this week.
Weather Forecast for Palm Harbor, FL
Palm Harbour will sample the chaos that unfolded at Ponte Vedra in the days just past, although the forecast suggests that will clear in time for Thursday’s tee off.
Of course, we expect the layout to play softer than usual – there is still some lingering rain around on Tuesday and Wednesday, and while the temperatures are on the rise you wonder if they will be enough to firm up the ground or not.
Thursday and Friday look set to be warm and fairly wind free according to the early predictions, with temperatures reaching 78˚F.
The breeze picks up during the weekend and will probably hit double figures, while there is some suggestion of potential storms on Saturday. But Sunday, if the forecast holds, will at least be played out in glorious sunshine.
Last Year’s Results from the Valspar Championship
Following the event’s cancellation in 2020 due to the pandemic, the Valspar Championship returned in April 2021 and handed a first PGA TOUR title to one of the smartest young talents around.
Sam Burns, chasing his first senior title, showed absolutely zero nerves as he opened up his Sunday round and made two birdies in a row to confirm this was a young guy that was not going to fumble his chance.
The odd birdie here and there were matched by the occasional bogey, but all told Burns never looked in any trouble and would win by three shots from closest challenger Keegan Bradley.
That said, Bradley had chances – he was tied with Burns with six holes to play, but hitting the water on the 13th was not on the agenda, and a five at that Par 3 hole was matched by a bogey at the next short hole….confirmation of how important it is to play the Par 3s well at Innisbrook.
Bradley couldn’t rally from there, and so Burns enjoyed the most serene run to his maiden PGA TOUR victory.
Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Valspar Championship this Week
After the chaotic variance of the PLAYERS, it will be nice to return to rather more straightforward fare at the Valspar Championship, and we can be a bit more enterprising in our contest entries given that there are less weather-related variables to consider.
- PGA $1M Pitch and Putt: There’s a few different ways to build your roster this week, and so multi-entry contests are the way to go to ensure that all boxes are ticked. And here’s a handy starter – the Pitch and Putt pays a top prize of $250k from your $20 entries.
- PGA $350k Drive the Green: For a lower budget multi-entry option, the Drive the Green contest offers a not inconsiderable top prize of $50k with just $5 per entry, and there’s plenty of other payouts via which you can scale up your investment too.
This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Valspar Championship
Given that the Copperhead Course is a layout beholden of opportunities and threats, you’ll need to play well through the bag to prevail.
You’ll want players that are going to drive the ball well – hitting out of the long rough here is not advisable too many times, although the nature of the doglegs means that of course some fairways will be missed.
So scrambling becomes the order of the day, and holding these small greens from out of the rough is a tough – but essential – skillset.
Ordinarily, the Bermuda greens are rapid, but the wet conditions in this part of the world – and a lack of wind heading into this new week – suggest they may just lack some of their usual speed.
And if the surfaces are softer, there will naturally be less ball-run – maybe fairways hit and GIR percentages will be higher than the standard renewal on the Copperhead Course.
What isn’t up for debate is the importance of avoiding danger on the Par 3s, and making hay on the Par 5s. Burns’ winning tally of -17 was made on the back of playing the longer holes in -15, while Casey – who won in 2019 with -8 – also played the Par 5s in -15.
The Copperhead Course is a layout where seizing the moment is vital!
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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win THE Valspar Championship
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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship
Top Tier Pick #1:
Viktor Hovland (Odds:, FPPG: 101.08, GPFP: 80.86 Salary: $10,800)
Unusually, it might be that not contending at the PLAYERS will turn out to be a good thing this week, with those involved at the business end surely feeling physically and mentally drained after the exertion required.
Viktor Hovland, although he largely went under the radar all week at Sawgrass, was able just to enjoy himself out on the course – which he clearly did when making an ace at the eighth hole in his third round on Monday. In the end, he was right in the mix for the trophy without playing his best….always a good sign.
It was a performance full of positives then ahead of a week in which the Norwegian will be hotly fancied to contend. He’s bang in form – since the tail-end of 2021, he’s won the Mayakoba, Hero World Challenge and the Dubai Classic on the DP World Tour, and posted top-fives in the Arnold Palmer and Genesis, and he clearly enjoys the Copperhead Course after finishing T3 here on debut a year ago.
One of the most likely winners whenever he tees it up these days, Hovland looks like a very strong candidate for honors at Innisbrook.
Key Stats:
- Birdie Average – 2nd
- SG: Approach – 9th
- Greens in Regulation – 18th
Top Tier Pick #2:
Matt Fitzpatrick (Odds:, FPPG: 73.03, GPFP: 59.14 Salary: $9,000)
The Florida Swing often seems to go well for European players – maybe it’s the Bermuda greens they are used to on their continent, or the fact that a scrambling game is required.
Either way, Matt Fitzpatrick is a player that should thrive at Innisbrook, even if his sole visit so far resulted in a missed cut. The Brit missed the weekend at the PLAYERS too, but no matter – that means more preparation for this test.
Sitting pretty in seventh in the Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green rank on TOUR, is it any wonder that Fitzpatrick served up three consecutive top-10 finishes prior to the trip to Sawgrass? The latter of those, T9 at Bay Hill, was the most instructive when looking for potential winners this week.
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 6th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 7th
- Scrambling – 14th
Mid-Tier Pick #1:
Aaron Wise (Odds:, FPPG: 68.59, GPFP: 54.87 Salary: $7,700)
Statistically speaking, Aaron Wise seems poised for a good week.
Her continues to show up well when modeling these Florida Swing events, and while his performances haven’t quite lived up to the underlying numbers, his T17 at Bay Hill was his best effort for a while.
It’s been a long time between drinks for Wise, whose best season on TOUR came back in 2018, but he is a decent ball-striker and you do expect that there’s better things to come from him in the months ahead – hopefully we can ride the coattails of that this week.
Key Stats:
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 30th
- Scoring Average – 36th
- Scrambling – 47th
Mid-Tier Pick #2:
C.T. Pan (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 62.1, GPFP: 49.70 Salary: $7,300)
Pan has long been a strong ball-striker, but his putting has seen an uptick lately and that brings him into the minds of DFS gamers seeking a bargain.
He ranks nicely for a number of key stats at Innisbrook too, and heads to Palm Harbour on the back of a run of form that reads solo ninth at the Genesis, T16 at the Honda and a missed cut at the Players, where he fired an opening round of 69 before the bad weather took hold.
Pan led the field in scrambling at the November 2020 heat of The Masters, and he’ll need to bring that expertise to the table on the Copperhead Course.
Key Stats:
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 44th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 54th
- Greens in Regulation – 73rd
Low-Tier Pick:
Brendon Todd (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 56.2, GPFP: 55.61 Salary: $7,100)
There’s a lot to be said for picking your way around the Copperhead Course, playing sensible golf on the Par 3 and 4 holes and then going low on the Par 5s.
Brendon Todd will make his way around the track economically, and you would expect him to stay out of trouble on the shorter holes and leave himself plenty of 100-yard wedges into the Par 5s to set up birdie looks – it’s a strategy that works for us.
As mentioned, missing the cut at the PLAYERS is certainly not the end of the world with one eye on the Valspar, and Todd should have something of an edge on those that regularly find themselves in the three-inch rough.
Key Stats:
- Driving Accuracy – 12th
- Scrambling – 54th
- Scoring Average – 63rd
Sleeper Pick for the Valspar Championship
Patton Kizzire (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 67.28, GPFP: 52.17 Salary: $7,200)
Load up the stats from the PLAYERS and you’ll notice that Patton Kizzire was right in the thick of things as far as birdies made is concerned.
Errors naturally prevented him from building on his top-30 finish, but all in all Kizzire can take plenty of positives from another week of excellent iron play.
Crucially, his short game was in better working order too, which is usually his Achilles heel, and so there are plenty of reasons for his fans to be optimistic.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach – 44th
- Birdie Average – 81st
- Greens in Regulation – 86th
Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Valspar Championship
Troy Merritt (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 65.23, GPFP: 66.53 Salary: $6,600)
As a marker of his uptick in form, Troy Merritt birdied his four holes in the final round at Sawgrass, and while he fell away from there it was confirmation that confidence is coursing through his veins.
In ten PGA TOUR appearances this term he’s made seven cuts and delivered four top-25 finishes, so his credentials as a sleeper pick to rely on are confirmed.
For the most part this season, Merritt’s ball-striking has been very good and his putting less so, but those roles were reversed at the PLAYERS where he found himself ranking top-15 with the flat stick. Can he combine both elements of his game at Innisbrook, where he has two previous top-10 finishes?
Key Stats:
- Scoring Average – 48th
- SG: Approach – 60th
- SG: Tee-to-Green – 65th
This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup
Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only. Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.
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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2021-2022)
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