Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 American Express

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 American Express  

American Express Fantasy Preview

We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: winning your maiden PGA TOUR title is difficult.

The latest example of that comes courtesy of Hayden Buckley, who swept into the 54-hole lead at the Sony Open last week.

He was playing with serenity personified until the reality of what he might achieve began to set in. Buckley, who had been in fine fettle on the greens all week, started to miss within 10ft.

It opened the door to others, and though it stomped Si-Woo Kim, who is still a spring chicken at the age of 27 but who has been there and got the trophies from closing out three prior PGA TOUR wins.

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You can probably guess the rest. Buckley, in fairness to him, rallied and made birdies at 12, 14 and 16. But more missed putts would cost him, and Si-Woo utilized the winning formula of talent and luck on the seventeenth when he chipped in from off the fringe.

Kim birdied the last and Buckley didn’t, and that’s all she wrote as the Korean became a four-time PGA TOUR winner and his vanquished opponent was left to lick his wounds.

One of Si-Woo’s PGA TOUR wins came at The American Express, so can he double up as the action returns to the mainland this week?

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Unfortunately no top 10 finishes for us last week in Honolulu, so hoping to get back on track in Cali. 

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Although most of our picks made the weekend, no one finished high enough worthy of a brag this week.   

Regardless, we now set our sights to brighter days ahead as the PGA Tour enters the California swing.

American Express Field

Even though this pro-am tournament has a fun, knockabout feel, it still does well to attract a quality field year in, year out.

Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay are all frequent contestants, and this year they will be joined by Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Sam Burns and Will Zalatoris.

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The mercurial Tom Kim, Cameron Young and Sungjae Im are some of the other notables as ten of the world’s top 20 players commit to The American Express.

Si-Woo, Adam Long and Andrew Landry are the former Am-Ex winners in the field hoping to double up.

This Week’s Course Preview

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The American Express is played at three host courses across the opening 54 holes, before the top-65 make their way to the big daddy course to contest Sunday. These are not ideal conditions for drafting DFS lineups, but we must make the best of them.

Let’s start at the top with the Stadium Course, which is one of two tracks at the PGA West complex to host an opening round and then Sunday’s finale.  This is the best course and, in true Pete Dye fashion, the toughest of the three, although it’s by no means as complex as some of his other famous designs.

The 7,200 yard, Par 72 has stacks of bunkers, another Dye trademark, and water is in play on nine holes, so the players will have to mind their work on the Stadium Course. It’s scorable, but certainly the most challenging of the trio on the Am-Ex rotation.

The second of the tracks used at PGA West bears the name of its designer, Jack Nicklaus. The Golden Bear must have been in good spirits when he drew up the blueprints, because this 7,160 yard, Par 72 is super-short and features generous fairways and greens – it’s bombs away and knock it close here.

The third of the host courses is La Quinta, and incredibly this is even shorter than the Nicklaus at 7,060 yards for its Par 72. Again large landing zones off the tee and on approach are designed to make life easier for the amateurs in the field, and if the weather is benign don’t be surprised if at least one pro troubles a round of 59 here.

Just a point of order: despite the event being hosted in California, the greens are Bermudagrass, which is fairly unusual on the West Coast.

Weather Forecast for La Quinta, CA

La Quinta is described as a ‘desert resort city’, so you might expect hot sun and wind. You’d be wrong.

In stark contrast, the weather forecast this week is looking somewhat benign, with the wind predictions starting at 8mph on Thursday before dropping as low as 5mph.

The tee times in this event aren’t all that early, given the three-course rotation, and the players can be thankful for that. Overnight temperatures are expected to dip as low as 40˚F, although they should rise to around 64˚F by the afternoon.

LA QUINTA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the American Express

Some players really take to the pro-am, split course format, and Hudson Swafford was certainly among them during his time on the PGA TOUR.

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He won this event twice, with the second of those coming last year after had laid waste to the back nine of the Stadium Course during his final round.

The 54-hole leader, Lee Hodges, tried to stick around, but a fairly low-key Sunday saw him slip out of the running as Lanto Griffin, Brian Harman, Tom Hoge and Swafford asserted.

Harman played a bogey-free 64 to contend as Hoge furthered his chances with a 68, but they could only watch as Swafford made five birdies and an eagle on the back nine to gallop to the front and win with a score of -23.  

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the American Express this Week

There’s no denying it: The American Express is a tough school for DFS gamers, and a conservative approach is recommended to your staking given the variance of this event.

But it’s still fun trying to solve the puzzle, so here’s two low cost ways you can get involved:

• PGA $150k Drive the Green: Because it’s very hard to draft a winning lineup in events where there’s no obvious profile of player to favor, it’s worth having a couple of darts in the hope your picks do the business. As such, this $5 contest, which pays $25k to the winner, is as good a contest as any to start with.

• PGA $30k Albatross: It’s tournaments like The American Express where whales get full value for their money – they can draft multiple lineups and cut down on their variance. So why not try a single-entry game instead? This one has a prize pool of $30k to play for.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Landry and Long both won this event with scores of -26 in recent memory, and with the weather forecast as benign as it is you would expect something similar again in 2023.

As to who will score that, well, Godspeed in your selections.

The chaos of a three-course rotation, and the draw biases that can bring, is bad enough, but throw into the mix a bunch of TV stars, celebrities and influencers as playing partners and you have a recipe for one of the most unpredictable tournaments of the calendar year. Hence why Long, Landry and Swafford, amongst others, have ended up in the winner’s circle here.

It’s a birdie fest in which no player is out of the running, because driving distance is not the defining factor at the host courses – Si-Woo, Landry and Long erred on the side of accuracy over distance from the tee, while Swafford still found two-thirds of fairways.

When he did miss, Swafford scrambled well with some excellent mid and short-range approaches, and he ranked second for SG: Putting. That will always help.

There is no one single profile of player to look out for, unfortunately, with flushers mingling with bombers and putt-makers on the leaderboard at The American Express.

But if you want to go the extra mile, remember that this is a desert event – consider the Phoenix Open and Shriners as somewhat correlating events, while an emphasis on short-range approaches also brings to mind other courses where that skillset is key: TPC Sawgrass (PLAYERS Championship), TPC San Antonio (Texas Open) and even Augusta (The Masters).

Also, consider this: four of the top five on the leaderboard last year had all played at either the Tournament of Champions or Sony Open beforehand, without pulling up any trees. The lead-in formline of Swafford (T48), Hoge (MC), Harman (T48) and Hodges (MC) suggests that simply having a runout in Hawaii is helpful.

Then all you can do is hope that your picks get paired with an amateur of sound game and mind….good luck!

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the American Express   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the American Express  

Top Tier Pick #1

Sungjae Im (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 77.9, GPFP: 62.34 Salary: $9,800)

We’ve learned that a missed cut at the Sony Open doesn’t have to be a problem in The American Express, and so we’re willing to take a chance on Sungjae Im given the many clues that point to him as a possible champion.

This is an event where the brilliance of Rahm (albeit he’s a former champion), Scheffler, Cantlay and Schauffele will be minimized, to some extent, given the unique format and variance of three host venues, and so instead we’re going to take a chance on Im, who seems to love the setup here with a formline of 11-12-10-12.

Go back to the summer and you will note the Korean has been striking the ball superbly week after week, and it’s that progress – rather than 36 holes in Hawaii – that stoke our interest.

Im has gained strokes on the field putting in seven of his last ten ShotLink starts, and he looks ready to replicate the achievements of his compatriot Si-Woo this week.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 7th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 18th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 44th

Top Tier Pick #2

Si-Woo Kim (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 80.8, GPFP: 64.66 Salary: $9,200)

It’s funny that, even when a golfer’s game is perfectly built for an event, we still baulk at backing them aGPFP: 62.34week after they win.

But Si-Woo doesn’t strike us as being the kind to embark on an orgy of wild celebrations this week, and instead he will have his eyes focused on a tournament that very much plays to his strengths. 

Nobody struck the ball better than Kim at Waialae – literally, he ranked first for SG: Tee-to-Green, and his putting numbers largely improved throughout the week as he shook off the rust of a lack of competitive action.

In his last five attempts at The American Express, Si-Woo has won and finished T9 and T11, so it’s a format that he is comfortable with.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 3rd
• Driving Accuracy – 7th
• Scoring Average – 8th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Sahith Theegala (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 78.6, GPFP: 62.86 Salary: $8,600)

Speaking of unusual formats, Sahith Theegala won the QBE Classic alongside Tom Hoge back in November.

Most expect the Californian to win a more traditional trophy in the months ahead, so why not on home soil in an event that suits his good-natures personality?

Two top-fives and a T6 so far this season mark your card of how well he is performing, and Theegala is just a rock-solid tee-to-green merchant that thrives on Bermuda greens. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him winning this week, that’s for sure.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 36th
• SG: Putting – 67th
• SG: Approach – 73rd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

K.H. Lee (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 88.9, GPFP: 71.44 Salary: $8,300)

Although he finished T28 at the Sony Open, K.H. Lee ranked 17th for SG: Tee-to-Green and showed signs of his game really coming together. 

A third round of 65 at Waialae was timely, and backed by T7 at the Tournament of Champions shows that the Korean has got off to a fast start in 2023.

The International team looked like they had become good friends by the end of the Presidents Cup in 2022, and maybe Si-Woo’s win will inspire his teammates to glory of their own this week?

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 13th
• Birdie Average – 15th
• Driving Accuracy – 35th

Low-Tier Pick

Nate Lashley (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 56.9, GPFP: 84.40 Salary: $7,100)

There’s a sense that Nate Lashley can far exceed his lowly salary this week.

He heads to Cali in good spirit after a T7 turn at the Sony Open, where he posted two rounds of 65 and struck the ball beautifully.

T12 in this event a couple of years ago, Lashley has also performed well at the desert-based tournament in Phoenix and tackled the top page of the leaderboard at the Texas Open, where emphasis on short-range approaches is key. 

If he can follow up on his bright start to the year in Hawaii, Lashley could be a factor this week.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 100-125th – 17th
• SG: Putting – 90th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 93rd

Sleeper Pick for the American Express

Will Gordon (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 75.4, GPFP: 60.30 Salary: $7,400)

There’s no harm in drafting those that are riding a wave at The American Express.

Since the start of the season, Will Gordon has made the cut in all eight of his starts, finishing no lower than T44 with a best of T3 at Mayakoba.

He is an outstanding driver of the golf ball, hits some decent short-range approaches and has a happy knack of making birdies.

A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022, can Gordon get 2023 off to the best possible start?

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 14th
• Birdie Average – 27th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 36th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the American Express

Kevin Yu (Odds: 225/1, FPPG: 73.2, GPFP: 58.57 Salary: $6,900)

Although he’s still something of an unknown quantity, we’ve seen enough of Kevin Yu’s game to know he’s a player to be excited about.

Yu is a ball-striking crusher, with long, straight hitting backed by class in a couple of the approach yardages typically used in this event.

An Arizona State grad, Yu will feel at home in the desert and could be a surprise package this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 3rd
• Approaches from 150-175 yards – 24th
• Birdie Average – 38th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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