Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson  

AT&T Byron Nelson Fantasy Preview

When Wyndham Clark spliced his opening drive into the crowd in the final round of the Wells Fargo Championship last week, the naysayers would have no doubt raised their eyebrows at another PGA TOUR maiden making a mess of their trophy challenge.

By the seventh hole, Xander Schauffele had turned a two-shot deficit into a one-stroke lead, and with the sportsbooks making him an odds-on favorite, it seemed as if Clark had blown his chances.

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But Schauffele, despite being a seven-time PGA TOUR winner and an Olympic gold medallist, isn’t always the most convincing of closers, and as bogeys started to creep into his game at the turn, Clark found an extra gear.

The 80/1 shot poured in four birdies in his first six holes on the back nine, opening up a cushion that left Schauffele far too much to do. Even a closing bogey could not detract from an emotional victory for Clark, who admitted in his interviews after that he had almost quit golf over his own self-confessed issues with the psychological side of the sport.

Talent wins out in the end if the mind lets it, and Clark finally got his hands on a PGA TOUR trophy at the 134th time of asking.

We’re not far away now from the second major of the year, next week’s PGA Championship, but first a handful of straight-shooters are hoping to find form and favor at the AT&T Byron Nelson.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Wyndham Clark was on our Tuesday Sleeper Report last week as a must-pick with his 80/1 odds. In case you missed it, here’s what we had to say about Clark heading into last week’s Wells Fargo Championship:

It feels as though Wyndham Clark has been there or thereabouts of late, with a T3 finish in the Zurich Classic alongside Beau Hossler followed by T24 at the Mexico Open, where he opened with a 73 before impressing on the way home with 67-69-65.

The improvements in Clark’s approach game are eye-catching and add another dimension for a player that is simply one of the longest hitters around, and he’ll be hoping that yields the ultimate dividend soon.

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Along we with Clark, we had 5 total picks finish in the Top-14.

The AT&T Byron Nelson Field

Scottie Scheffler will be looking to tweak his game ahead of the PGA Championship, and he headlines the Byron Nelson field alongside Jordan Spieth, a Lonestar State specialist perhaps still frustrated by his playoff defeat at the RBC Heritage.

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K.H. Lee, the back-to-back winner of this event, will be looking to become just the tenth player since the Second World War to complete the three-peat, while Tyrrell Hatton and Adam Scott will be looking to build on top-five showings at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Hideki Matsuyama returns to action as continues to battle an injured neck, Aaron Wise resumes his PGA TOUR after taking a break to handle some mental health issues and Jason Day and Tom Kim seek an uptick in fortunes ahead of next week’s major.

This Week’s Course Preview

With winning scores of -25 and -26 in the past two years, the recipe for success at TPC Craig Ranch in Dallas, Texas is a pretty simple one to fathom out.

There’s mammoth landing zones off the tee and colossal Bentgrass greens to aim at, and so it’s no surprise that this event is essentially a putting contest in which bogeys will not be tolerated.

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Twelve of the eighteen holes averaged under par 12 months ago, with the four Par 5s of this 7,468-yard, Par 72 naturally the easiest to score on. The toughest holes were the first and sixteenth, although the term ‘tough’ should be used in context here. 

This is Texan golf, so there’s always the possibility of stiff winds to add complexity to the assignment, while the presence of Rowlett Creek on 13 holes and some 80+ bunkers help to concentrate the mind of the players.

But, all told, TPC Craig Ranch is a pre-major jolly at which making birdie putts is non-negotiable.

Weather Forecast for McKinney, TX

How low will the scoring go this year?

It’s interesting that the weather forecast for Dallas has plenty of rain in it, and while such predictions can be hit and miss, a rain-softened TPC Craig Ranch would become one of the easiest courses in recent PGA TOUR memory.

There is a breeze of between 10-14 mph to consider, but all told some warm temperatures (up to 84 degrees) and humidity could trigger some rather heavy downpours – those could slow up greens measuring around 11 on the stimpmeter even more.

MCKINNEY WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the AT&T Byron Nelson

There’s just something about TPC Craig Ranch that seems to speak to K.H. Lee.

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A year after triumphing with -25 at the venue, the Korean returned in 2022 and went one better – posting a score of -26 to win by one from Jordan Spieth, who had chances to force the action into a playoff late on.

Lee’s bogey-free 63 on Sunday, which featured seven birdie and an eagle, was symptomatic of the yardstick required to compete at this layout, and all told he made just three bogeys on the week to go with 25 birdies.

As for Spieth, he made a whopping 29 birdies and an eagle – but characteristic errors would ultimately prove costly.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the AT&T Byron Nelson this Week

There’s a real focus on short game this week at the AT&T Byron Nelson, and those aren’t always the most comfortable of conditions for daily fantasy – if your guys have a bad week with the putter, it could be curtains. So it’s steady as she goes this week.

• PGA $300K Drive the Green: At $5 a go, you can have a ticket or two to one of the biggest prizes available this week – the $50k jackpot that goes to the winner of this Drive the Green contest.

• PGA $30k Caddie: If you want to narrow the playing field a little, here’s a single-entry contest that features just 7,134 entries but still promises a sizable $30k prize pool – there’s $3,000 to the winner. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

There’s really not a great deal to write about TPC Craig Ranch, one of the most feature-less and easiest golf courses you would expect to see at this level.

Two of the Par 5 holes had more eagles than bogeys last year, while two Par 4s measuring less than 365 yards are – as you would expect – there for the taking too.

The 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson leaderboard saw the likes of Peter Malnati, James Hahn and Sebastian Munoz rub shoulders with Spieth, Lee and Justin Thomas, which is perhaps proof that there’s more than one way to skin this cat.

But making birdies is not up for debate, and so hitting approaches very close – or putting well from, say, 30ft and in, with three-putt avoidance key – seems the best way go.

It was notable how many of last year’s top ten or so players on the leaderboard are renowned sand players – there are stacks of bunkers at TPC Craig Ranch, and while these aren’t too demanding hitting it close enough to be putting comfortably is vital.

And note the switch too to Bentgrass greens, which will naturally favor some in the field more than others.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the AT&T Byron Nelson  

Top Tier Pick #1

Tyrell Hatton (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 79.0, Salary: $10,100)

With Spieth out with the late WD, we’re going to run with Hatton as the top dog.  He co-led after 36 holes at Quail Hollow, but wasn’t able to keep up with Wyndham Clark on Saturday and Sunday.  Hatton finished the week ranked 3rd in SG: Tee-to-Green and this was his fourth top-six finish of the season.   He seems to be in strong form and making a push up leaderboards as of late.

Key Stats:

• SG: Total – 7th
• SG: Off -The-Tee – 10th
• SG: Approach-to-Green – 8th

Top Tier Pick #2

Matt Kuchar (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 64.9, Salary: $9,000)

Matt Kuchar continues to stave off the hands of time with a series of top performances, which includes four top-10s on the PGA TOUR this term. 

T9 at the WGC Match Play was followed by T3 at the Texas Open, T19 at the RBC Heritage and T23 at the Wells Fargo – all encouraging efforts ahead of what is far weaker company this time around in Dallas.

This is an event where some of the more powerful ball-strikers’ advantage is diminished, and with an emphasis on long-range putting, Kuchar fits the bill tremendously – that’s the one aspect of his game that remains as strong now as ever before.

Key Stats:

• Approach Putt Performance – 19th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 21st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 23rd

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Stephan Jaeger (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 65.3, Salary: $8,200)

It’s testament to Stephan Jaeger’s improvements in the past year that he’s 50/1 with the sportsbooks this week – he could be backed at 150/1 for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson.

The German has turned himself into a solid TOUR pro, ranking 27th in the Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green metric – a sure sign of an excellent ball-striker. T18 at the Mexico Open and T27 at both the Wells Fargo and Valspar Championship are also indicators that all is well.

The flat stick is a thorn in Jaeger’s side, but he gained more than a stroke on the field putting on Sunday at the Wells Fargo, so perhaps he’ll take increased confidence with him to Dallas.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 12th
• Greens in Regulation – 17th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 27th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Scott Stallings (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 60.8, Salary: $7,700)

It’s something of a surprise that Scott Stallings has opted for a quiet schedule of late – T26 at The Masters, followed by an opening round of 66 at the RBC Heritage – seem to be the perfect launchpad for more quality performances.

Either way, the fact he has chosen a venue at which he finished T3 in 2021 as his return comes as no surprise, with Stallings seemingly very much at home on Bentgrass greens – confirmed by +0.96 with the flat stick on the field at Augusta National.

This somewhat erratic driver will enjoy the extra space at TPC Craig Ranch, and that should allow his quality approaches in the 200-yard range to thrive.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole from Sand – 4th
• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 54th
• Approaches from 200+ yards – 64th

Low-Tier Pick

Mark Hubbard (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 54.7, Salary: $7,300)

These are excellent times for Mark Hubbard, who in T11, T18 and T27 finishes at the RBC Heritage, Mexico Open and Wells Fargo respectively has gained a mammoth +4.17 strokes on the field on approach.

That iron and wedge play mastery will serve him very well at TPC Craig Ranch, where he can still hang despite a lack of length. When your long-range approach play is as good as this, you can get away with being a shorter hitter.

Solid if unspectacular in two trips to this layout (32-34), this is a different Mark Hubbard that will this year bring outstanding approach play with him to Dallas.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 25th
• 3-Putt Avoidance – 28th
• SG: Approach – 39th

Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Byron Nelson

Nate Lashley (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 58.6, Salary: $7,200)

A poor final round at the Wells Fargo saw Nate Lashley tumble down the leaderboard to T27, but the overall picture is still one of positivity.

It followed T31 and T37 at the RBC Heritage and Mexico Open, so you get a feel for where his game is at right now, and ensures the 40-year-old is imbued with good vibes ahead of a trip to a venue where he was T17 last year – the idea sleeper pick performance.

A sure-handed putter, Lashley has also gained strokes on the field on approach in four of his last five outings.

Key Stats:

• 3-Putt Avoidance – 8th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 18th
• Greens in Regulation – 46th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the AT&T Byron Nelson

Jimmy Walker (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 50.4, Salary: $7,100)

Although going somewhat under the radar, Jimmy Walker is flying at the moment.

T14 in decent company at the Wells Fargo followed T25 in the equally-classy RBC Heritage, with the meat in the sandwich being a solid T15 turn at the Mexico Open.

Banking a top-10 will be the next item on the agenda for Walker, and why not at TPC Craig Range: his long but wild driving will find plenty of room for manoeuvre, and he will be expecting to continue his recent gains on approach and putting too.

A former Texas Open champion, Walker has happy memories of the Lonestar State.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 29th
• Approaches from 200-225 yards – 45th
• Putts Per Round – 46th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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