Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 BMW Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 BMW Championship  

BMW Championship Fantasy Preview

Like London buses, you wait two years for a PGA TOUR title and then another one comes along just a week later.

Lucas Glover has now won more tournaments in his forties than his twenties – evidence of the powers of experience in the modern game, but also confirmation that his long battle with the yips, especially with putting, is over.

Victory in the Wyndham Championship was one thing, but to double-up in the FedEx St. Jude Championship – against many of the world’s best players – is evidence that Glover is playing the finest golf of his career right now….armed with his new broomstick putter.

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The veteran overcame Patrick Cantlay in a playoff at TPC Southwind, where Cantlay hit his drive into the drink to gift-wrap victory to his opponent. But Glover held his nerve to make a perfunctory par, celebrating a win that seals his spot in the TOUR Championship and puts him on the brink of the world’s top 50 players once more.

There’s actually a surprisingly long list of players who have won on TOUR in three consecutive starts. Even so, they’re all legends of the game to one extent or another, so can Glover add his name to the list with victory in this week’s BMW Championship?

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

For those of you doubters who asked, “are you really picking Lucas Glover this week to repeat?” Simply, yes we did … and we’re glad you listened (if you did).

We loved having Glover (1) and Homa (T6) on the roster this week! Now let’s stay hot as we head into Olympia.

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2023 BMW Championship Field

The final 50 is set for the BMW Championship, with Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm – the winner the last time Olympia Fields hosted a PGA TOUR event – leading the way.

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Glover, Cantlay, Homa, Hovland, Clark, Harman and Fleetwood have booked their TOUR Championship berths barring a disaster, while the likes of Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Tom Kim and Xander Schauffele will be feeling pretty chipper about their chances of doing likewise.

Others have work to do to get to East Lake. Justin Rose, Matt Fitzpatrick and Cameron Young are amongst those outside of the top-30 of the FedExCup standings, so they will need a big week if they are to gatecrash the seasonal finale.

This Week’s Course Preview

A host of two U.S. Opens and a U.S. Amateur, the reputation of Olympia Fields in Illinois preceded when it took on hosting duties for this event back in 2020.

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Only five of the 69 players that took to the tee back then finished under par, while at the 2003 U.S. Open only two players scored better than -1.

Off the bat, that gives you an idea of the grind that the North Course at Olympia Fields provides, and what a grind it is – a mammoth 7,343 yards for its Par 70. That length alone would be considered a staunch defense, but Willie Park Jr’s design also boasts tight fairways; many of them doglegging and well-protected by trees.

The bunkers at Olympia Fields are a genuine hazard too, rather than being a mere annoyance, while many of the small greens are perched higher than the run-off areas around them….making for some devilish up-and-downs when missing, particularly on the short side.

Tiger described the layout as ‘very, very difficult’ back in 2020, and assuming officials are in equally unforgiving mood this week then we can expect something similar.

For context, Rahm won here last time despite hitting just 55% of fairways – he ranked second for GIR though, which shows how well he scrambled from the rough. Finau finished solo fifth despite finding just 32% of fairways, while Hideki Matsuyama burst into the top-five despite a GIR count of just 51%.

All of which is unsurprising when you consider that the two Par 5s are in excess of 600 yards, there’s a 510-yard Par 4 and one of the Par 3s is a ridiculous 251 yards!

The point is that all departments of a player’s game will be well tested by Olympia Fields, and mistakes will almost certainly be made – minimizing these, and bouncing back from them, will be key.

Weather Forecast for Olympia Fields, IL

Continuous improvement seems to be the theme in the early weather forecast for Illinois this week.

There’s rain around early in the week and that looks set to continue into Thursday, where blustery downpours – wind speeds hitting 17mph and higher – are in the offing.

Happily, the rest of the tournament should be played out in warm, sunny and largely wind-free conditions. Sunshine is forecast for Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with the breeze at a more manageable 9mph. By Sunday, the mercury could hit 82 degrees too.

OLYMPIA FIELDS WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the BMW Championship

Cantlay is the defending champion at the BMW Championship thanks to an effort of some grit and resolve at Wilmington Country Club 12 months ago.

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A clutch 72nd hole – he’d dumped his tee shot into a bunker, leaving an almighty left-to-right approach out of the sand – confirmed Cantlay’s credentials as ice cold under pressure, particularly as his playing partners and closest challengers Scheffler and Xander Schauffele both faded under the spotlight.

Scott Stallings put up the best resistance, but missed putts at seventeen and eighteen ultimately cost him both the outright win and a shot at a playoff. Cantlay, however, would not be denied.

At the BMW Championship in 2020, the last time Olympia Fields took on hosting duties, Rahm downed fellow heavyweight Dustin Johnson in a playoff courtesy of a snaking 66-foot putt on the first extra hole.

That duo, plus Finau, Matsuyama and Joaquin Niemann, were the only players to finish under par in supremely difficult conditions.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the BMW Championship this Week

Although the main DFS sites will run a slate for the TOUR Championship, it really isn’t a fest for gamers – therefore, this is our final opportunity for a while to enjoy a larger field tournament and the variance that brings. Here’s two contests to savour:

• GOLF TOUR $1.2M Summer Sand Trap: Here’s another chance to grab the $250k top prize on offer in this headline-making contest, where there’s $1 million in payouts to be won aside from the jackpot.

• GOLF TOUR $75k Birdie: Even with only 50 players to choose from, you might find yourself with multiple lineup rotations on the go. This contest charges $3 a time but doesn’t stiff players on its prizes, with a top payout of $7,500 available.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Although we’ve only had occasional glimpses of the North Course at Olympia Fields, we know that it’s long and hard – a basic but useful starting point in our roster build.

Only the finest drivers will be able to find an edge on what are some of the tightest fairways outside of the majors, and even they will be hitting plenty of 150-225 yard approaches out of the rough.

That will be key, because the greens are so well protected by run-offs and bunkers that precise approach play will be of paramount importance, and it may be that extra length off the tee – leaving shorter approaches in with more loft – will be an edge-maker. 

The Bentgrass greens will run slick too, so keeping mistakes to a minimum will be vital – there’s no doubt that longer hitters will have an advantage in that regard over plotters who are having to strive for extra distance. 

Of the top five on the leaderboard in 2020, four averaged 325 yards or further, with Rahm, DJ and Finau ranking tied-fourth in a 69-player field for Driving Distance. That’s as indicative as it gets.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the BMW Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the BMW Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Rory McIlroy (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 87.9, Salary: $12,100)

Given the relative struggles of Rahm (he ranked 52 of 70 for Ball Striking at the St Jude) and Scheffler (62/70 for Putting), the case can be made to say that Rory McIlroy is the clear favorite to win this week. 

It’s handy, given that some chalk will head Rahm’s way given his Olympia Fields win of 2020, but there’s no doubt that Rory heads to Illinois in winning form after adding an eighth consecutive positive ball-striking performance at TPC Southwind.

It’s a run of form that has brought a win at the Scottish Open and three major top-10 finishes, so nobody in the field – not even Glover – can lay claim to a medium-range form line quite like the Irishman.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 2nd
• Rough Proximity – 22nd

Top Tier Pick #2

Viktor Hovland (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 86.4, Salary: $10,300)

You might be able to join a line between Olympia Fields and Muirfield Village, a similarly long, tree-lined layout with small Bentgrass greens.

These things are never an exact science but Viktor Hovland, a Memorial Tournament champion at Muirfield Village, fits the bill this week given his length and quality of approach play from short grass and long.

The Norwegian was second only to Harris English in terms of SG: Approach at TPC Southwind, with a T13 effort there meaning that Hovland hasn’t finished outside the top-30 in any of his eight events – a run that includes three majors.

Consistency is an end game that can deliver untold riches in the FedExCup playoffs….

Key Stats:

• Rough Proximity – 3rd
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 8th
• Scoring Average – 8th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Cameron Young (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 68.9, Salary: $8,500)

It’s amazing that after top-10s at the British Open and John Deere Classic, Cameron Young went and missed the cut at TPC Twin Cities – a layout that couldn’t be better served by his incredible power off the tee.

He was inconsistent at the St Jude last week too, but a final round of 67 in challenging conditions – Young only made one bogey too – sends him to Illinois in good spirits.

Riviera and Quail Hollow, two other courses with an anecdotal similarity to Olympia Fields, have been the sites of top-three finishes for Young, so hopefully this week’s test in Illinois suitably favors his eye.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 3rd
• Birdie Average – 4th 
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 32nd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Byeong Hun An (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 66.3, Salary: $7,500)

After opening up 67-67-68, Byeong Hun An will have been disappointed with his closing 72 at TPC Southwind.

He sits 38th in the FedExCup standings, so every shot counts for the Korean as he bids for a place at the TOUR Championship – a fact that won’t be lost on him at Olympia Fields.

A former runner-up at Muirfield Village, An has racked up top-three finishes at the Wyndham Championship and Scottish Open since mid-July alone – if nothing else, he’s knocking on the door of a long-awaited PGA TOUR triumph.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 5th
• Scrambling – 7th
• Scoring Average – 30th

Low-Tier Pick

Taylor Moore (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 59.5, Salary: $7,200)

Another potentially correlating course to ponder this week is Innisbrook, home of the Valspar Championship where grinding out a score amid tight doglegging fairways, unforgiving rough and small greens is the order of the day.

Those conditions gave Taylor Moore his best day in golf so far with victory at the 2023 Valspar, and T11 this year at Torrey Pines – another of similar dimensions and requirements – confirm his preference for this kind of assignment.

Playing in the final group on Sunday, Moore was knocking at the door once again at the St Jude, so he heads to Chicago knowing he’s in the right place to add win number two to his ledger.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 20th
• Scoring Average – 34th
• Driving Distance – 48th

Sleeper Pick for the BMW Championship

Adam Schenk (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 58.3, Salary: $6,500)

It’s been an outstanding few months for Adam Schenk.

Since the end of May, where he just missed out at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Schenk has compiled four more top-10s at the Memorial, Rocket Mortgage Classic, John Deere Classic and St Jude.

His latest addition to that collection at TPC Southwind was built upon sound ball-striking credentials, while Schenk’s status as a pretty long-hitter that scrambles well will surely serve him nicely at Olympia Fields.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 46th
• Scrambling – 49th
• Driving Distance – 51st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the BMW Championship

(Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 51.4, Salary: $5,600)

Kurt Kitayama’s maiden PGA TOUR title came earlier this year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, whose host course – Bay Hill – is a tough, driver heavy layout where you need to beg, steal and borrow a winning score.

There’s a similar feel at PGA National, home of the Honda Classic where Kitayama has finished solo third, so you wonder if long, hard tests of recovery golf are going to his forte.

Although there’s not much in the way of form for Kitayama of late, a round of 66 at TPC Scottsdale last week at least hints at better things to come.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 54th
• SG: Approach – 59th
• Scoring Average – 63rd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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