Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship  

Butterfield Bermuda Championship Fantasy Preview

Talk about shooting your shot.

The moustachio’d, cropped trouser wearing Erik van Rooyen is one of the good guys on the PGA TOUR, and he’s a pretty damn good golfer too – as he showed on the back nine at El Cardonal on Sunday to win the World Wide Technology Championship.

The South African shot 58 on the way home at Tiger Woods’ rather friendly layout in Mexico, with the best of all saved for the 72nd hole. Van Rooyen and playing partners Matt Kuchar and Camilo Villegas all had chances of at least forcing a playoff, but EVR put those hopes to bed with a clutch eagle putt that handed him a second PGA TOUR title.

Afterwards, Van Rooyen broke down in tears, dedicating his victory to a terminally-ill friend. Who says nice guys finish last….

Embed from Getty Images

The TOUR schedule circumnavigates the Gulf of Mexico and heads into the Atlantic Ocean for the Bermuda Championship; the penultimate event of the Fall Series and the 2022-23 season as a whole.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

We scored 3-top 10s last week, but ultimately nothing to celebrate over in Cabo. 

We did NOT take the Van Rooyen/Kuchar combo unfortunately, but hey, you win some and you lose some. 

Let’s bounce back hard this week in Bermuda.

Embed from Getty Images

2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship Field

You’ve probably figured out that these events are being contested by players with a vested interest in the Fall Series, with a sprinkling of a few others.

This week’s main interloper is Adam Scott, who will be making his first start at the Royal Port Golf Club.

Embed from Getty Images

Others of interest have been busy during the past few months, with Lucas Glover joined in Bermuda by the likes of Akshay Bhatia, Alex Noren, Thomas Detry and Sanderson Farms champion Luke List.

Former winners of this event include Brendon Todd, Lucas Herbert and Brian Gay, who all return in a bid to get their hands on the trophy once more.

This Week’s Course Preview

After the easy-peasy stylings of El Cardonal last week (what was Tiger thinking!?), we have a somewhat stiffer test this week at Royal Port GC – albeit one that is still there for the taking.

Embed from Getty Images

The fairways here aren’t the width of an entire state, as they were in Mexico, and when the wind blows they actually become quite difficult to hold – the 2022 champion here, Seamus Power, only found 55.4% of them on his way to the trophy.

The Bermuda greens are a decent size though, in fact they’re El Cardonal esque, but they are better protected with 87 bunkers and water in play on seven holes.

It’s an undulating track with a unique routing – half of the holes play along the coast, so are buffeted by the Atlantic breeze, whereas the others are slightly in-land and more parklands in nature.

A very short 6,898 yards for its Par 71, Royal Port has three Par 5s that each measure on the short side of 550 yards – the seventh hole, which measures just 517 yards, yielded 19 eagles and a staggering 225 birdies last year.

Only six of the holes averaged under par 12 months ago, with three toughest all Par 3s measuring in excess of 210 yards.

Weather Forecast for Southampton, Bermuda

The fall tends to be the rainy season in Bermuda, but there doesn’t appear to be any such worries this week.

What is of interest is the wind predictions, which show a steadily increasing breeze that could reach significant status come Sunday.

It looks set to be warm, sunny and – according to the early forecast – rain-free, with the mercury hitting 75 degrees.

But the wind rises steadily from 6mph on Thursday to 18mph on Sunday, and that could have a real bearing on who lands the trophy.

SOUTHAMPTON, BERMUDA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Seamus Power clinched his second PGA TOUR title at the Bermuda Championship 12 months ago, taking advantage of the pressure felt by Ben Griffin at the business end of the tournament.

Embed from Getty Images

Two shots clear heading into the back nine on Sunday, Griffin played the stretch between 12-16 in +6 – capitulating in the face of the possibility of winning his maiden PGA TOUR title.

That left the door ajar for the chasing pack, and while Thomas Detry tried his best to force the issue with birdies at 17 and 18 to finish on -18, Power had just a little more in the tank – birdies at 14 and 17, in amongst four bogeys of his own, were just enough to see him home at -19.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship this Week

There’s just two events left in 2023 for DFS lovers to extract some value from their golf contests. The Bermuda Championship is beset with variance and, often, draw biases due to the weather, but there’s enough evidence to confirm that a certain type of player thrives at Royal port – they should form a key part of your roster builds for the following contests:

• PGA $80k Drive the Green: It’s likely that you will want a few lineup variations to work with this week, so at $5 a go you can enjoy multiple entry into this contest in your quest for the $20k top prize. 

• PGA $10k Dogleg: Taking a single entry into a tournament like the Bermuda Championship is the riskiest of silver bullets, but the upside is that you will romp up the standings if you manage to get a strong lineup together.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

With winning scores in this event ranging from -15 to -24 in its four years so far, it’s clear how much of a factor the weather, and specifically the wind, is in determining its champion.

Sunday could see a howling wind and stacks of bogeys as a result, although with a relatively benign forecast on Thursday and Friday there could be plenty of birdies on the board already.

The formula at Royal Port is pretty simple: there’ll be lots of flick wedges from inside 100 yards – a lay-up on the Par 5s, and the fact that there’s six Par 4s under 400 yards, guarantees it.

So, knock those wedges to 15ft or closer, make some putts and collect the trophy. Easy, right?

Well, maybe not given the weekend forecast, so keep an eye out for form in correlating conditions: any coastal track is of interest, but particularly the likes of Pebble Beach and Sea Island (home of the RSM Classic), at which the leaderboards suggest there’s plenty of crossover.

As for the stats, close range approaches and strong Bermuda putting are the order of the day, but also consider that the likes of Power, Todd and Brian Gay have won this event – they are short fairway finders, which is a useful skillset at the best of times but particularly so in the face of a howling wind. 

[membership level=”0″]

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Butterfield Bermuda Championship   

You must be a Premium Member to view our exclusive fantasy golf picks.

Already a member?  Sign in Here.

[/membership]

[membership level=”1,2,3″]

Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Butterfield Bermuda Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Brendon Todd (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 94.0, Salary: $10,300)

All things being equal, Brendon Todd will hit plenty of fairways, lay up well on the Par 5s and then hit his approaches from 100-125 yards – a yardage range he ranks 14th on TOUR for – close.

And then a player that ranks eleventh on TOUR for Putts Per Round should, in theory, make some putts….

That’s the blueprint that carried Todd to the 2019 Bermuda Championship, and while it doesn’t work at all courses it can certainly get the job done at Royal Port.

Solo sixth last time out at the Fortinet Championship, everything is in place for Todd to once again battle for supremacy on Bermuda.

Key Stats:

• Putts Per Round – 11th
• Approaches from 100-125 Yards – 14th
• Total Birdies – 20th

Top Tier Pick #2

Lucas Glover (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 85.5, Salary: $9,500)

Experience and nous can often come in handy out on the golf course – especially hen the weather turns and things get a little tricky.

Lucas Glover boasts those skills in abundance, plus a rather happy knack of being an elite iron and wedge player.

Brilliant approach play was the foundation of his wins at the Wyndham Championship and St Jude, and if he brings anything like that form to Bermuda he should go along very nicely.

His T59 in Mexico last week was nothing more than dusting off the rust after time away, and eve then Glover found 86% of GIR. He has been on fire these past few months. 

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 6th
• SG: Approach – 15th
• Birdie Average – 38th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Troy Merritt (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 86.8, Salary: $7,800)

After playing his opening eight holes at El Cardonal in +2, Troy Merritt’s chances at the World Wide Tech Championships were pretty much over given how hard it was to make up ground on the leaders.

So credit to him for sticking around and producing his best golf on the Sunday: eight birdies in a round of 65 sets him up nicely for the trip to Bermuda.

Although it’s well documented how easy El Cardonal played, Merritt still found an extraordinary 98.2% of fairways all tournament long, and as we’ve learned finding the short stuff at Royal Port GC is no bad thing.

A player with previous at the correlating Pebble Beach, we’re happy to give Merritt another try this week. 

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 19th
• Approaches from Inside 100 Yards – 33rd
• Proximity to Hole – 38th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Justin Lower (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 57.8, Salary: $7,600)

Driving the ball superbly well, Justin Lower made 25 birdies in his effort at El Cardonal last week, and it was only a poor third round that prevented him from building on an eventual T23 finish.

Six birdies in his last nine holes played means Lower leaves Mexico with stacks of confidence, heading to another track where his often-excellent approach play – strokes gained on the field with irons and wedges in four of his last five measured starts – should get full reward.

If Lower takes his improved driving and his typically solid putting to Bermuda, he can certainly improve upon the T8 finish he posted here in 2022.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 17th
• Total Birdies – 23rd
• SG: Putting – 33rd

Low-Tier Pick

Ryan Moore (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 71.6, Salary: $7,400)

Edging closer to something resembling good form is Ryan Moore, whose T38 at the World Wide Technology Championship followed T13 at the Shriners.

It’s not headline-making form by any means, but worthy of a second look given that Royal Port GC plays into his simple skillset of finding fairways and then hitting approaches from inside 150 yards close to the hole.

Putting? Well, the jury’s out on that. But if he continues to set up birdie looks, surely it’s only a matter of time before Moore takes full advantage. 

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 4th
• Fairway Proximity – 16th
• SG: Approach – 21st

Sleeper Pick for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Henrik Norlander (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 66.0, Salary: $7,200)

A missed cut at the World Wide Tech Championship was something of a curveball from a player that has been firing them well of late.

Henrik Norlander finished T2 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, before hitting some strong approaches albeit in a T35 effort at the Shriners.

Generally accurate off the tee, Norlander hits quality irons and wedges from the short and long grass, and anyone that has finished T2 at the RSM Classic and inside the top-10 at the Sony Open evidently enjoys these conditions.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 32nd
• Scrambling – 38th
• Driving Accuracy – 59th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Kelly Kraft (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 84.3, Salary: $7,200)

It seems as though the fear of losing his tour card has lit a fire under Kelly Kraft.

After months of nothingness, he served up three consecutive top-25 finishes at the Shriners, Sanderson Farms and Fortinet Championship, and while his finishing position at the World Wide Tech was nothing to write home about, it should be said that Kraft’s excellent improvements from tee-to-green continued in Mexico.

At the Shriners, Kraft hit more fairways than the field average and gained +1.85 strokes on the field on approach – if he takes that to Bermuda, he will set up plenty of birdie looks.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 22nd
• Rough Proximity – 34th
• SG: Putting – 44th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

[/membership]

Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season (2023-2024)

Remember to visit our private Facebook group to discuss this week’s picks for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship with other Premium Members.

Cover Photo via Instagram