Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge  

Charles Schwab Challenge Fantasy Preview

PGA TOUR 1, LIV Golf 1.

That’s the way the majors have gone so far in 2023, although of all LIV’s players Brooks Koepka is perhaps one that would give the least of a hoot of such tribal nonsense.

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He is intent only on building a major resumé of outstanding proportion, and by adding the 2023 PGA Championship to his collection on Sunday, Brooks is now up to five big ones – that takes him up to five, level with the late, great Seve Ballesteros, Byron Nelson and co. He’s just one adrift of Nick Faldo and Lee Trevino, and at the age of 33 he has the power to add too.

Koepka has the secret sauce in majors, and carrying a lead into the final round he rarely looked like relinquishing his grip on that massive PGA Championship trophy. Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler flirted with the idea, but strings of three birdies – from the second hole to the fourth and from twelve to sixteen – ensured Brooks remained ahead of the rest for another big win.

He has about four weeks to wait before he can try to match Faldo and co at the U.S. Open, but in the meantime the PGA TOUR returns to Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

We almost caught the victory with Scottie, who ended up T2 along with Viktor Hovland.

Overall, it was a decent week in Rochester, but not having Brooks on our card turned out to be a bit of a disappointment.

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The Charles Schwab Challenge Field

There can always be withdrawals late in the week after a major, but at the time of writing there’s a strong look to the head of the field heading to the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth.

PGA Championship runners-up Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland lead the way, alongside Tony Finau, Max Homa and Colonial course specialist Jordan Spieth.

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Defending champion Sam Burns is just one of a number of former Charles Schwab winners in the field; the likes of Justin Rose and Chris Kirk supplement that, while Collin Morikawa is a former runner-up at Colonial too.

PGA of America coaching professional Michael Block, who captured the hearts of the golf-loving faithful with his T15 heroics at the PGA Championship – which included an incredible slam-dunk hole-in-one – has accepted an invitation to play this week as well.

This Week’s Course Preview

Any hopes of a birdie-heavy jolly this week after such a tough assignment at Oak Hill can be quickly kicked to the kerb at Colonial Country Club.

Although it’s been around for the best part of a century, Colonial remains a decent test for even the best players, with narrow fairways and some dense tree-lines rewarding those who opt for a strategy-first mindset over a bombs away one.

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The tightness of the layout – and some considerable doglegs – lend themselves to missed fairways and greens, while some 84 bunkers will gobble up any shots straying off-line from tee to green.

With only two Par 5s in its Par 70 (7,204 yards), the field will have to take advantage of that pair of longer holes – they were just two of the four holes on the entire layout to average under par in 2022.

There’s a trio of holes from three through to five known as the ‘Horrible Horseshoe’, although it’s four and five in particular that cause the players the most headaches. The fourth hole is a 247-yard Par 3, while the fifth is a demanding 481-yard Par 4 that provides a stern test of ball-striking. Both had a birdie-to-bogey ratio of around 1:3 last year.

Weather Forecast for Fort Worth, TX

The weather tends to play a big part in this tournament, with winning scores ranging from -9 to -20 in recent years indicative of how conditions alter the scoring.

The players won’t have the strong winds and heavy rains that have blighted past editions of this event this week, although it could be sweat-inducingly hot – the early forecast suggests the mercury could reach 89 degrees by Sunday.

So hot and dry is the theme in Fort Worth this week, with minimal chance of rain according to the predictions. The wind will start at around 8mph on Thursday and could creep up to 12 mph by Sunday.

FORT WORTH WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Charles Schwab Challenge

Timing was very much of the essence for Sam Burns at the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge.

He saved his best round of Sunday, blitzing a tally of 65 – with seven birdies in his first eleven holes played – to draw level with Scheffler on -9.

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It was a curious finale from Scheffler, who opened with rounds of 65 and 66 and appeared to be coasting towards yet another PGA TOUR victory. But he didn’t make a single birdie on Sunday, and almost inevitably had nothing to offer in the playoff that followed as Burns parlayed his fine finish with a huge putt on the first extra hole to complete the win.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Charles Schwab Challenge this Week

After the trials and tribulations of drafting lineups for a major, we can get back to the basics of the PGA TOUR grind and at a venue that we know well. That should hopefully be the foundation for another successful week.

• PGA $800k Pitch + Putt: There’s a $200k bounty to the victor in this contest – a cool 1000x the stake of the lucky winner. There’s a stack of other sizable payouts too, so there’s ample reason to take your shot at it.

• PGA $10k Scramble: Although lower key in nature and with a smaller prize pool, the Scramble contest offers opportunities because it allows for three lineups to be entered. There’s still $10,000 in prizes to be won as well against a total of 588 entries.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

It’s amazing to think that Sam Burns found just 54% of fairways and 65% of greens in regulation 12 months ago, and yet ranked sixth and twelfth respectively for strokes gained off the tee and on approach respectively.

That shows the importance of hitting quality irons and wedges out of the rough and scrambling appropriately, because these greens are on the small side and do tend to run firm and fast when the weather conditions allow for that.

In the recent past, the likes of Chris Kirk and Kevin Na have won this event, but then you have Burns and Jordan Spieth in the winner’s circle as well – neat and tidy and bomb and gouge have both worked at Colonial.

The Par 4s are key to success in this event, and so quality approach shots in the 150-175 yard range are vital – although it was notable from last year’s leaderboard how many quality operators within 100 yards of the flag also thrived, perhaps as a result of the low GIR count.

There’s some continuity from the PGA Championship with speedy Bentgrass greens, but with the emphasis on tee-to-green play at Colonial that is likely to be where the edge is found.

Visually, TPC Potomac and TPC Southwind are similar courses in style to Colonial, but how about this for a correlation: Burns is a two-time winner of the Valspar Championship, where he once downed Davis Riley (he was T4 in the Charles Schwab last year). Spieth has won at Colonial and Innisbrook, while Charles Schwab champions Jason Kokrak and Kevin Na have finished runners-up in the Valspar too.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Charles Schwab Challenge   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Charles Schwab Challenge  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Tony Finau (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 83.9, Salary: $10,700)

Although things didn’t quite go accordingly to plan for Tony Finau at the PGA Championship, he can head to Texas knowing that his excellent form will hold at a venue he has previously enjoyed.

A win at the Mexico Open, surrounded by T19 in the PLAYERS and T26 at The Masters, is an excellent launchpad ahead of a return to Colonial, where he’s finished T2 and T4 in the past four years and no lower than T23.

One of the best iron hitters in world golf right now, Finau is straight enough and long enough off the tee to gain a real edge, and his putting on fast Bentgrass greens is reliable. All told, he looks as rock-solid as a top-tier play should this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 5th
• Scoring Average – 7th
• Total Driving – 20th

Top Tier Pick #2

Max Homa (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 83.7, Salary: $10,100)

By swerving the likes of Scheffler and Spieth this week, we can pair Finau with another elite baller in Max Homa.

Having won at Riviera and Quail Hollow, Homa clearly enjoys these ‘classical’ tests, and that’s evident in his ability to compete in both birdie fests and more grinding assignments where keeping big numbers off your card is key.

His formline isn’t all that appealing, but a top-10 at the Wells Fargo Championship was followed by three rounds of 72 or lower at Oak Hill, so it would be foolhardy to write off Home too readily this week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 13th
• SG: Approach – 15th
• Total Driving – 33rd

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Stephan Jaeger (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 66.1, Salary: $8,100)

Without setting the world alight, Stephan Jaeger is playing some outstanding golf right now.

A Sunday 76 saw him slip down to T50 in the PGA Championship, but prior to that he’s compiled a run that reads T11 at the Byron Nelson, T18 at the Mexico Open and T27 at both the Wells Fargo and Valspar – that’s a solid profile indeed.

A player that ranks 23rd on TOUR for Scoring Average and 25th for SG: Tee-to-Green should enjoy the technical test set by Colonial very much; Jaeger’s ball-striking should prove to be an edge-maker in the field this week.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 10th
• Scoring Average – 23rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 25th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Patrick Rodgers (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 60.8, Salary: $7,500)

Although some of Patrick Rodgers’ elite driving will be stripped away by the unique shot shaping required off the tee at Colonial, his game is still trending in other departments anyway.

He gained strokes on the field on approach in each of the Mexico Open, RBC Heritage and Texas Open – a run in which he finished no lower than T19. A missed cut at the Wells Fargo was disappointing, but T29 at the PGA Championship, where he putted nicely on the fast Bentgrass greens, is another cause for optimism this week.

An excellent scrambler, Rodgers can combat his occasional wildness by being solid around the greens – besides, his ball-striking has been much better of late anyway.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 40th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 46th
• SG: Putting – 47th

Low-Tier Pick

Hayden Buckley (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 65.1, Salary: $7,300)

The good times continue for Hayden Buckley, whose off-the-tee and approach stats in recent times have been elite.

He used that as a springboard for top-10 finishes at the RBC Heritage and Texas Open, while a better turn with the putter at the PGA Championship secured him a T26 turn.

Although his short game isn’t the greatest, Buckley knows how to put a score together – he ranks 22nd on TOUR this season for Scoring Average, and so he can continue his fine recent form at Colonial.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 8th
• Scoring Average – 22nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 34th

Sleeper Pick for the Charles Schwab Challenge

Sam Stevens (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 57.8, Salary: $7,100)

In his rookie year on the PGA TOUR, Sam Stevens has already twice knocked on the door of victory at the Corales Puntacana and Texas Open, and now he has performed admirably in a major too.

Stevens opened up 71-72 at the PGA Championship, and while he fell away after such an impressive start there’s still plenty of positives to be taken.

He hits the ball so far that he won’t be inconvenienced too much by clubbing down off the tee at Colonial when required, and his approach play in that typical 150-200 yard Par 4 range is certainly good enough to set up birdie looks.

Born in Fort Worth, how many times do you think that Stevens has played at Colonial Country Club already?

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 45th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 54th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 57th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Charles Schwab Challenge

Akshay Bhatia (Odds: 180/1, FPPG: 70.2, Salary: $6,700)

We have drafted Akshay Bhatia a number of times this season, and continue to be impressed by his ability to greatly outperform his salary.

Solo fourth at the Mexico Open and T43 at the Wells Fargo are evidence of that, and so good is Bhatia’s ball-striking that he offers an opportunity that’s too good to miss at this salary point.

It’s very rare to be able to back players at sub $7,000 that have a genuine chance of winning a tournament, so we have to take that opportunity with Bhatia when available.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 11th
• Scoring Average – 17th
• Total Driving – 19th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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