Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Genesis Invitational

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Genesis Invitational  

Genesis Invitational Fantasy Preview

Golf tournaments take place over four days usually, but the destination of the Waste Management Phoenix Open trophy was defined by a key hour on Sunday afternoon.

It was at the thirteenth hole that Scottie Scheffler made eagle, before watching with satisfaction as playing partner and nearest rival Nick Taylor had to settle for birdie.

After duking out pars at the next two holes, the duo went to the sixteenth and Scheffler scrambled par – Taylor made bogey, and that two-shot swing would prove definitive.

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It was at TPC Scottsdale that Scheffler started out on his mesmeric run to world number one 12 months ago, claiming his maiden PGA TOUR win in the Arizonan desert. He would double-up on Sunday in front of a raucous crowd imbibed with Super Bowl fever, and in perfect symmetry recapture the top-spot in the OWGR from Rory McIlroy.

That victory precipitate a run of four wins in six starts for Scheffler, so will he embark on something similar in 2023? He will get an immediate chance to do so at a star-studded Genesis Invitational this week.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Rahm was our top pick last week and while we thought his fire would going to propel him to the top spot, ultimately nothing was stopping Scottie on Sunday. 

On the week we had a total of four players out of twelve picks that made it into the Top 10.

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Genesis Invitational Field

The return of Tiger Woods for his first PGA TOUR event since July is just one of the narratives of interest this week in Los Angeles.

Scheffler, McIlroy and Jon Rahm are having a famous ding-dong in the race to the top of the world rankings, and that trio are joined in the field this week by local heroes Max Homa, the 2021 Genesis champion, and last year’s runner-up Collin Morikawa.

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The Genesis, like the Phoenix Open last week, benefits from ‘elevated’ status on TOUR, and that explains why 23 of the world’s top 25 players – according to the OWGR – are in town. Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris and Tony Finau just some of the others that catch the eye. 

The likes of Sam Burns, Jason Day and Rickie Fowler are just some of those looking to frank top-10s in Arizona with another strong showing on the West Coast.

This Week’s Course Preview

Found in the heart of the Pacific Palisades, Riviera Country Club has been hosting golf tournaments for almost a century – testament to its timeless qualities.

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It has been tinkered with over the years, most recently by Tom Fazio, to ensure it remains relevant for the modern game, but the upshot is that this is a layout that provides a decent test of all-round golf.

The players have just three Par 5s to work with at this 7,322 yard Par 71, and unsurprisingly those – along with the driveable Par 4 tenth – are by far and away the easiest holes on the course.

But there’s devilment here too, with four Par 4s that measure 470 yards plus and a 236-yard Par 3 – that latter hole saw just 14 birdies made all week in 2022.

The complexity is added to by some severe doglegs, which are framed by thick tree lines, plus a hefty dose of Kikuyu rough for those that stray from the straight and narrow. 

There’s smart bunkering too, which explains why Riviera has one of the lowest GIR counts amongst the main TOUR rotation of courses, and if all that wasn’t enough the players are on undulating Poa Annua greens this week – those are far from being the favorite of many.

Weather Forecast for Pacific Palisades, CA

A cold and calm week is in store for the players in the Pacific Palisades.

Temperatures are down to 60˚F right now, and they don’t look likely to increase much this week at all.

Thursday and Sunday could see sunny spells, but Friday looks set to be a moody cloud-heavy day and ‘scattered showers’ are in the early predictions for Saturday.

The players are typically well-protected by the wind given the thickness of the trees at Riviera, and that will assisted further by the fact that the breeze isn’t expected to get up much beyond 10mph this week.

LOS ANGELES WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Genesis Invitational

Joaquin Niemann was/is one of the brightest prospects in world golf, and so it was a shame he decided to cash in his chips with LIV Golf.

He took the Genesis Invitational title with him, which he won in fine – although far from stress-free – style 12 months ago.

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The Chilean amassed 16 birdies and an eagle in his first 36 holes to set the halfway scoring record in this event, although nerves over the weekend then saw him go 16 holes without breaking par.

Cameron Young, eyeing his maiden PGA TOUR title, endured similar woes on his front nine on Sunday, while Collin Morikawa blitzed his way up the standings with a closing 65.

But Niemann just about clung on, with an eagle at the Par 5 eleventh ultimately setting him up for a two-shot victory.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Genesis Invitational this Week

Later on in this preview, you’ll see why we get so excited about the Genesis – there’s a definite edge when you know what profile of player to look for, and it’s a formula that saw us draft Niemann as a mid-tier play 12 months ago.

As such, we’re going big in our contest entries this week:

• PGA $1.2M Pitch & Putt: It’s the big one, of course, but with confidence in our lineup we can try our luck in this $20 contest that pays a top prize of $300k to the champion. 

• PGA $300k Drive the Green: That bullishness can continue no matter what your budget, with this $3 contest offering opportunities for alternate builds that won’t break the bank. The winner lands $50k.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Sometimes we find ourselves scrabbling around trying to find the right profile of player that conforms to the course fit credentials each week – we do this despite knowing that, at some of the PGA TOUR’s easiest layouts, it’s simply a putting contest.

But the Genesis Invitational brings with it a very specific type of player that can thrive, and that should give both DFS gamers and bettors alike plenty of reasons to be excited this week.

It’s quite simple: we’re looking for long drivers who are comfortable shaping their ball around doglegs, and who have the requisite touch of class in their mid to long-range approaches – success on the longer Par 4s and Par 5s being of paramount importance.

Greens tend to be missed at Riviera – the average GIR count of the top-10 on the leaderboard last year was around 65%, so getting up and down, scrambling and chipping are all of vital importance.

And we’re on Poa Annua greens remember, and given the relatively cool temperatures these will be as tricky to read as ever. Some will thrive on the dancefloor, others won’t.

Got it? Good. This is a week in which our lineups almost draft themselves….

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Genesis Invitational   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Genesis Invitational  

Top Tier Pick #1

Xander Schauffele (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 94.1, GPFP: 75.31 Salary: $9,900)

We actually drafted Xander Schauffele as our top-tier pick here last year, and we’re surprised that he couldn’t quite get anything going before settling for a T15 finish.

He did post a Saturday 66, however, and this year heads to Riviera with a fine formline of 10-13-3 on his docket. Perhaps just as importantly, Schauffele’s ball-striking is tracking very nicely indeed.

That’s relevant because he has the requisite short game to thrive at this track, and few can boast his ability when putting on Poa Annua. It’s all trending nicely for Schauffele, who hasn’t finished lower than T23 at Riviera in four trips.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 4th
• Scoring Average – 8th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 25th

Top Tier Pick #2

Tony Finau (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 91.9, GPFP: 114.83 Salary: $9,500)

It’s true that Tony Finau will need to putt better this week than recently to win this event.

He’s leaked strokes with the flat stick at both the Farmers Insurance Open and last week’s Phoenix Open, but take a longer-term view and you’ll note that Finau’s putting was outstanding in the second half of 2022.

Besides, there’s something he likes about the greens at Riviera – he made it to a playoff here in 2021, losing out to Max Homa, and has another T2 effort to his name here as well.

Like Schauffele, Finau’s ball-striking is in tremendous shape and has guided him to a PGA TOUR formline of 9-16-7. There’s ample reason for optimism this week in Tony’s camp.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 9th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 15th
• Scrambling – 18th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Jason Day (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 77.6, GPFP: 88.42 Salary: $8,400)

With Hideki Matsuyama’s iron and wedge game going walkabouts lately, we instead turn to a player that has enjoyed a remarkable career renaissance in recent times.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Jason Day has posted three top-10 finishes, a T11 and two other top-20s in nine strokeplay starts. The Australian’s game is in rude health right now.

He hasn’t played much at Riviera, but there’s no reason to see why his recent improvements off the tee and on approach won’t yield dividends. Like most Aussies raised in firm and fast conditions, Day has a sharp short game too and – somewhat surprisingly to us as we delved into our database – has an excellent record when putting on Poa Annua greens.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 5th 
• SG: Approach – 15th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 29th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Keegan Bradley (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 80.4, GPFP: 101.25 Salary: $7,700)

A mediocre record at Riviera is explanation for Keegan Bradley being available as a value play this week – this is a guy who finished second on the Poa Annua greens of Torrey Pines at the end of January, remember.

Bradley gained strokes in all departments on the field there, and he repeated that feat on his way to a T20 turn at the Phoenix Open last time out.

With top-10 finishes at doglegging courses like Bay Hill, Innisbrook and TPC Sawgrass, Bradley is comfortable when shaping his ball and has performed well on Poa greens consistently in the past.

Can he end his Riviera hoodoo this week?

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 43rd
• SG: Putting – 45th 
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 48th

Low-Tier Pick

Adam Hadwin (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 82.9, GPFP: 76.30 Salary: $7,500)

Although Niemann scorched to victory with -19 a year ago, the Genesis is an event that takes some winning – scores in the low-teens under par have been enough to win at Riviera in recent times.

Attritional golf seems to bring the best out of Adam Hadwin, whose ability to keep his ball under control seems him outperform many of those who are longer off the tee than the Canadian.

Quality approach play and a solid record of getting up and down set the scene, and as importantly Hadwin has a lengthy resumé of gaining strokes on the field when putting on Poa. 

In eight trips to Riviera, Hadwin has made the cut on seven occasions – with a T6 and four finishes of T26 or better to his name. You can’t ask for more than that from your low-tier bargain play.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 16th
• SG: Putting – 17th
• Scrambling – 52nd

Sleeper Pick for the Genesis Invitational

Wyndham Clark (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 72.2, GPFP: 57.76 Salary: $7,800)

When you can comfortably send the ball 320 yards off the tee without breaking a sweat, there’s a chance that the rest of your golf game might lack in subtlety and nuance.

That’s probably a fair accusation of Wyndham Clark, although there’s no doubt his approach play in particular is tracking nicely at the moment.

He’s gained strokes on the field on approach in six of his last seven starts on the PGA TOUR, and that’s a run that has yielded two top-10s and two other top-20s accordingly.

Clark is another who shows up well in our Poa putting database, and that perhaps explains why he has two top-20s to his name at Riviera in three trips.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 6th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 33rd
• Greens in Regulation – 67th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Genesis Invitational

Taylor Moore (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 60.5, GPFP: 48.43 Salary: $7,200)

If you’re a decent approach player, scrambler and putter, there’s a chance for you to build a solid career on the PGA TOUR.

Taylor Moore may lack prowess with the big stick, but it’s an area he has been making great strides in since the start of 2023 – he’s gained strokes on the field off the tee in all four of his starts this year.

Whether that’s the missing piece of the jigsaw in place remains to be seen, but three consecutive top-20s suggests as much. 

Moore finished T21 on his Riviera debut a year ago.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 22nd
• SG: Approach – 68th
• SG: Putting – 68th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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