Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Genesis Scottish Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open  

Genesis Scottish Open Fantasy Preview

For a moment there, Sepp Straka had golf historians scrambling for their record books.

After posting 28 on the front nine on Sunday at the John Deere Classic, the Austrian would have carded a total of 57 if he could replicate that score of -7 on the back nine. Given that there’s only been one round of 58 on the PGA TOUR (Jim Furyk’s effort at the 2016 Travelers Championship), this truly was unknown territory.

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As was perhaps to be expected, Straka just lost a little rhythm coming home and would finish on 62 – a round that catapulted him up the leaderboard and which would, ultimately, see him secure a second PGA TOUR title as the chasing pack, including Brendon Todd and Alex Smalley, were unable to match the Austrian’s birdie bonanza. 

After that rollercoaster ride on Sunday, the PGA TOUR begins its annual UK tour with a two-week stopover: first at this week’s Genesis Scottish Open, before the final major of the calendar year at the British Open next week.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week’s top dog was Denny Mc – and our boy had an impressive week with a T6 finish. 

Overall, we had four Top 6 finishes on the week with our best finish being Brendon Todd (T2) on our Sleeper Report.

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2023 Genesis Scottish Open Field

A fully sanctioned PGA TOUR event with a handy $9 million purse, the main reason that the Scottish Open attracts such a strong field is that this is vital prep for the British Open next week.

So that’s why the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy will be teeing it up alongside defending champion Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Viktor Hovland, while the likes of Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler will be hoping to take advantage of their Links golf prowess.

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The home charge will be led by former British Open champion Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood, while former winners at the Renaissance Club – Min-Woo Lee and Aaron Rai – also feature amongst a classy and eclectic field.

This Week’s Course Preview

Designed by Tom Doak back in 2008, Berwick’s Renaissance Club can almost be described as an American take on classic British Links golf.

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Doak’s original work was given an overhaul by Padraig Harrington – a two-time British Open champion – in 2021, and so some of the hallmarks of the traditional coastal layouts of the UK, i.e. pot bunkers, tangly fescue grass and ultra-firm greens, are here.

The greens are super-fast and undulating in nature too, and with a ferocious breeze blowing in from the ocean this is very much Links golf territory – an environment in which some thrive and others flail. 

Playing a shade under 7,300 yards, the Renaissance Club has a unique routing with three Par 5s and five Par 3s in its Par 70, so this is a decent stretch that will test the players’ ability to hit long-distance under shots under complete control – for context, Schauffele won here with a score of -7 last year, although it should be said that scoring is very much weather-related.

Just five holes – including all three Par 5s – averaged under par in 2022, with the final hole (a 483-yard Par 4) playing as comfortably the toughest on the real estate; there were just six birdies here a year ago, compared to a staggering 252 bogeys or worse!

Weather Forecast for North Berwick, UK

It’s been an unusually warm and dry summer so far in the UK, but that looks set to come to a dramatic end this week.

Temperatures will drop to 62 degrees for Thursday’s first tee and barely climb thereafter, with a similar theme of cool, rainy showers on Friday as well.

The forecast is so changeable on the Scottish coast that it could all change in the next few weeks, but the weekend predictions are looking particularly volatile. There’s thunderstorms in the mix potentially on Saturday, before Sunday brings rain showers and wind speeds possibly in excess of 20mph – this is quintessential Links golf in the most challenging conditions. 

NORTH BERWICK WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Genesis Scottish Open

Xander Schauffele is one of those guys that often speaks of his love for Links golf – he’s a classy operator in all departments of his game, and has that low ball-flight that is often so key on the coast.

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He backed up his words with victory here 12 months ago, outlasting the field as conditions became brutally tough at the Renaissance Club.

Schauffele did it the hard way too, bouncing back from an opening round of 72 with a 65 in round two and 66 in round three – only Cameron Tringale’s bizarrely-brilliant 61 and Gray Woodland’s 64 would beat that all week long.

Conditions on the Sunday made the final round a war of attrition, although opening with two birdies helped to settle Schauffele’s nerves. Errors would creep in – he made three bogeys in four holes before the turn, but he already had enough credit in the bank to see off the fast finishing Kurt Kitayama and Tom Kim with a one-stroke victory.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Genesis Scottish Open this Week

There’s no doubt that these ‘specialist’ weeks – where certain players, and not necessarily the biggest names, thrive – offer opportunities for well-studied DFS gamers over their more casual counterparts. So this is a good chance to build our bankroll ahead of the British Open.

• PGA $1M Summer Sand Trap: At $25 a go, this contest isn’t exactly budget friendly, but with a top prize of $200k and some other mammoth payouts it holds plenty of appeal nonetheless. Perhaps fortune will favor the brave….

• PGA $40k Albatross: One of the ways to maximize our edge in weeks like this is to tackle single entry contests – at $12 for your entry, this contest is more friendly to those on a conservative budget and promises a top prize of $4,000 into the bargain. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Control is the name of the game on Links golf courses, and that’s very much the case at the Renaissance Club too.

A low ball-flight off the tee is vital in such breezy conditions, although the undulating fairways run so fast that even balls that land on-line can still end up in the rough.

Avoiding these deep pot bunkers is a must, as is hitting the right portion of the large but contoured greens, which spit out errant approaches and leave tough up-and-downs or even simply very difficult two-putts for par.

Oddly, of the first nine players home in 2022 only two – Schauffele and Tom Kim – ranked inside the top for SG: Tee-to-Green, whereas four of the same number ranked inside the top-10 for SG: Putting. Doak himself has suggested that the Renaissance Club can become something of a putting contest in the wet, and the stats bear that out.

Vital too will be keeping bogeys off the card: Kim made just ten birdies all week long in 2022 and yet was still able to complete a solo third finish, while Schauffele’s tally of 17 birdies is low compared to other PGA TOUR events.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Genesis Scottish Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Genesis Scottish Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Xander Schauffele (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 86.0, Salary: $10,400)

If you track his recent performances, Schauffele has been in barnstorming ball-striking and putting form – without necessarily getting the reward for his efforts.

T10 at the US Open and T18 at the PGA Championship are handy sighters though as he returns to his favorite conditions, and some concerns about his chipping aside, Schauffele has to be considered one of the most likely champions this week.

A run of 1-10 at the Renaissance Club is matched by a solid run of three top-20s in five British Open starts on the Links – including T2 at Carnoustie, where he was the sportsbooks’ favorite alongside Jordan Spieth to win after 54 holes.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 5th 
• SG: Putting – 6th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th

Top Tier Pick #2

Jordan Spieth (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 66.5, Salary: $9,300)

A strange old run – three missed cuts in his last five outings – has forced something of a reset from Jordan Spieth, who has had a month or so away from competitive golf.

That time away can be useful to work on your game, and besides he finished T6 at the Memorial Tournament within that run, so it’s not as if his game has eluded him entirely.

Few in this field can match the Links golf credentials of Spieth, whose T10 at the Renaissance Club last year is matched by the fact he has finished no lower than T20 in any of his last five British Open starts – four of them top-10s, including that famous victory at Royal Birkdale in 2017.

Spieth just gets Links golf, and he will be itching to get started in Scotland this week.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 21st
• SG: Approach – 32nd
• SG: Around-the-Green – 47th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Aaron Rai (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 61.8, Salary: $7,800)

A former winner at the Renaissance Club – albeit in the days before many of the top PGA TOUR pros made the trip, Aaron Rai will nevertheless feel bullish about his chances this week.

T12 at the Charles Schwab Challenge has been followed by T3 at the Canadian Open and T9 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, so the Brit’s game is in rude health as he heads to a happy hunting ground.

Boasting that all-important low ball-flight, Rai has also finished runner-up on the Links of Ireland and has a British Open top-20 on his resumé – we don’t have to worry about his suitability for this test, that’s for sure.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 33rd
• SG: Approach – 36th 
• Scoring Average – 46th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Brian Harman (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 64.6, Salary: $7,600)

It’s perhaps easy to forget that Brian Harman is ranked 28 in the world – he is an elite golfer, even if he doesn’t have the trophy cabinet to prove it.

But finishes of T6 and T19 in his last two British Open starts confirm that the left-hander has solved the riddle of Links golf, and he heads to Scotland with some excellent recent form in the can: T2 at the Travelers Championship followed by T9 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Another that hits low stingers rather than steepling cloud-grazers, Harman is adept at keeping bogey off his card and so is well placed to perform admirably at the Renaissance Club.

Key Stats:

• Bogey Avoidance – 3rd
• SG: Putting – 47th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 59th

Low-Tier Pick

Cam Davis (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 56.1, Salary: $7,300)

From Peter Thomson to Greg Norman and Cameron Smith, Australia has produced some mighty fine Links players over the years. 

That’s probably due to the fact that they are at home in breezy and super-fast conditions, honing their craft at controlling their ball, scrambling efficiently when required and putting on razor-sharp greens.

That’s not to say that Cam Davis is in the same echelon as those players mentioned – he evidently isn’t right now, but the Aussie does have the skillset to thrive in these conditions; top-10s at the RBC Heritage and Sony Open are somewhat evidence of that.

T17 last time out at the Rocket Mortgage Classic should offer plenty of confidence to Davis too.

Key Stats:

• Fairway Proximity – 5th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 34th
• Scoring Average – 70th

Sleeper Pick for the Genesis Scottish Open

Alexander Bjork (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 84.4, Salary: $7,300)

Alexander Bjork is on the mother of all heaters over on the DP World Tour.

The Swede has banked six top-10s in his last seven starts, and while he hasn’t been able to convert any of those to victory, he has finished above some of the hottest young talents in world golf, such as Min-Woo Lee and Nicolai Hojgaard. 

With a typically reliable recovery and short game, Bjork has made the cut in his last four starts at the Renaissance Club – with T19 and T26 his best efforts. Not bad from a sleeper pick….

Key Stats:

• N/A

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Genesis Scottish Open

Andrew Putnam (Odds: 160/1, FPPG: 62.3, Salary: $7,300)

He will surely go under the radar this week, but Andrew Putnam has the ideal game for Links golf.

A low ball-flight and high GIR count help him to keep costly mistakes off his card, and his excellent approach play has also contributed to a T4 finish in his sole start at the Renaissance Club and T32 in his only British Open appearance.

Putnam, with top-10s at Waialae and Pebble Beach also adding to his Links-style appeal, returns to Scotland on the back of four consecutive cuts made – which include T5 at the Memorial Tournament.

Key Stats:

• Bogey Avoidance – 5th
• SG: Putting – 7th
• SG: Approach – 34th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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