Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Hero World Challenge

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Hero World Challenge  

Hero World Challenge Fantasy Preview

You wouldn’t think that Tiger Woods’ annual festive jolly in the Bahamas would act as a bellwether for where world golf is right now.

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But the Big Cat’s ambition of bringing together the best in the business on the island has been hampered by LIV Golf’s ascendance, while recent developments will also see Jon Rahm (will he join LIV or won’t he?) and Rory McIlroy, who has quit as a PGA TOUR Council member after – rumor mill in full spin – having cross-words with Tiger, and others, on the future direction of the tour.

The good news is that there’s plenty of young stars coming through who have so far been loyal to the PGA TOUR – see Ludvig Aberg’s stunning victory at the RSM Classic a few weeks ago, but for the Hero World Challenge it means we have just 20 players in the field including Tiger, who will tee it up for the first time since The Masters in April.

So who will sign off on 2023 with the win?

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Overall not a bad week for us at Sea Island.

In the end, McKenzie Hughes (2nd) and Adam Svensson (T5) were our shining stars along with Ryan Moore who continues to contend with his T8 finish.

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2023 Hero World Challenge Field

Sadly, the Hero World Challenge field doesn’t have the elite quality that we have come to expect from the tournament.

Sure, there’s Tiger, Scottie Scheffler and the three-peat hunting Viktor Hovland, but then there’s the woefully out-of-form Jason Day, the Ryder Cup scorned Lucas Glover and Will Zalatoris, who hasn’t hit a competitive golf shot in anger since The Masters.

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Elsewhere, recent winners around the globe in the shape of Collin Morikawa, Max Homa and Matt Fitzpatrick are also in the hunt, as are Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth and the seemingly-rejuvenated Justin Thomas, who showed some form in the Fall Series. 

Major champions Brian Harman and Wyndham Clark add a little extra heft to the 20-man field.

This Week’s Course Preview

As is the case with many of the coastal layouts used on the PGA TOUR, it really is down to the weather as to how easy they play.

And yes, this Albany Golf Course on New Providence Island will be buffeted by a sea breeze this week, which will add something of a challenge to proceedings.

But this design, from the Ernie Els team, is routed in a way that offers players five Par 5 holes – a rarity, of course, and reason for the large number of birdies and eagles that are typically made here.

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There’s a quintet of Par 3s to balance out the equation of this 7,449 yard, Par 72 track, which at first glance appears to be a desert-based, sandbelt layout courtesy of the mammoth manmade sand dunes on the real estate, but for the most part this is an exposed course that brings to mind Links golf more any other type.

The Bermuda greens are pretty small and run at a fast pace too, so that – and the wind – are the only real defenses in the Albany Golf Course repertoire.

Weather Forecast for Albany, Bahamas

There’s a consistency to the weather forecast for New Providence Island this week that will either please or dismay the players.

It will be pretty warm and sunny through the four days of action, with top temperatures of around 82 degrees. There’s not a great deal of evidence to suggest there will be any rain (famous last words).

As for the wind, it’s shaping up to be around 15mph on Thursday and Friday, and approximately 12mph over the weekend, so hard enough to have some kind of bearing on the outcome of lofted shots.

BAHAMAS WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Hero World Challenge

Three shots separated the 54-hole leader Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler here 12 months ago, with plenty backing Scheffler to reel in the Norwegian given his incredible low scoring ability.

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But weather conditions were such that Albany GC showed some teeth, and before you know it the world number one had followed an eagle on the sixth with a bogey at seven and a double bogey on nine.

Hovland, meanwhile, was serenely going about his business, playing the front nine in 33 to extend his advantage. Scheffler rallied on the back nine with four birdies in six holes, but he’d left himself too much to do and the Norwegian was able to see out a comfortable enough title defense by two shots at -16.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Hero World Challenge this Week

Unless you have a mammoth bankroll to work with, there’s not a great deal of point to playing multi-entry contests this week – remember, there’s only 20 players to choose from in the field. So, it’s single entry all the way as we look to sign off on 2023 on a high.

• PGA $10k Albatross: There’s $1,000 to the winner of this contest, and a payout structure that will set you up for the start of 2024 if you can cash in the top 200 or so places of the 980-strong field.

• PGA $10k Dogleg: If you want to try and stack the deck in your favor, there’s only 353 teams in this $33 single entry contest, with the winner trousering $1,000.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Since 2018, either the winner or the runner-up of the Hero World Challenge have finished T8 or better in the British Open.

It’s confirmation that comfort in Links style conditions is of paramount importance. Hovland has won twice at Mayakoba and was T4 in the British Open of 2022, while Rahm has T2 and T3 finishes to his name in the UK and Irish major. Even Henrik Stenson, the 2019 winner of the Hero World Challenge, is a British Open champion.

Tournament likes the Sony Open and AT&T Pebble Beach also spring to mind as fair correlations, while the Tournament of Champions also boasts that unique five Par 5 routing.

Our preference is to draft those players that have been active of late, even if its only one competitive outing. The likes of Scottie Scheffler haven’t teed up since the TOUR Championship in August, which is a long time even for a thoroughbred like Scheffler.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Hero World Challenge   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Hero World Challenge  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Collin Morikawa (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 115.0, Salary: $10,000)

As tempting as it is to draft Hovland this week, he’s obviously going to be the chalk pick – in a field of just 20, it’s vital you avoid him as best you can.

As player profiles go, there’s a certain similarity between Hovland and Collin Morikawa; both are accurate enough off the tee, both are elite on approach and both have, at times, had questions raised about their short games.

But that doesn’t stop them winning, with Morikawa ending his trophy drought at the ZOZO Championship in October. He’s a British Open champion too, remember, who has been there or abouts in two previous visits to Albany GC (T5 and T6). 

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 2nd
• Driving Accuracy – 8th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 10th

Top Tier Pick #2

Justin Thomas (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 94.3, Salary: $8,400)

If they were being honest, most of the players in the field this week would admit they’re in the Bahamas as more of a social engagement than a fiercely-competitive golf tournament.

But you sense that, for Justin Thomas, there’s a desire to make up for a woeful (by his standards) 2023.

Solo fifth at the Fortinet Championship, and solo fourth at the DP World Tour’s Nedbank Challenge, should have restored some confidence for a player who would, ordinarily, lap up conditions at Albany GC – he’s finished T5 here in each of his last three visits.

JT is a Tournament of Champions and Sony Open winner who has also prevailed at the Nine Bridges club in South Korea, which has a Linksy feel, so there’s lots to like about his chances this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 4th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 13th
• SG: Approach – 39th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Rickie Fowler (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 43.0, Salary: $8,000)

With T2, T5 and T6 finishes in the British Open, plus a Scottish Open triumph, to his name, it’s fair to say that Rickie Fowler is comfortable in Links golf conditions.

He has generally played well at Albany GC too, winning here in 2017 and posting three other top-five finishes, so a player that has enjoyed a renaissance in 2023 will be looking forward to a return to a happy hunting ground this week.

Fowler checks all of the boxes of a potential winner of the Hero World Challenge, so he’ll be hoping to see out 2023 with a bang.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 7th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 11th
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 21st

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Wyndham Clark (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 62.5, Salary: $7,300)

One of the reasons that Wyndham Clark has ascended to prominence in world golf is that he now has strings to his bow: he can hit bombs off the tee, or be more conservative and let his much-improved approach play shine.

He’ll get a chance to do both at Albany GC, where his power will really come in handy on the Par 5s, and a win here would further confirm Clark’s status as an elite player.

He hasn’t been seen in strokeplay action since the TOUR Championship, but so good has Clark been in 2023 that he’s hard to refuse at this price point.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 8th
• SG: Approach – 29th
• SG: Putting – 33rd

Low-Tier Pick

Justin Rose (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 69.1, Salary: $6,900)

No matter where his game has been when heading to Albany, Justin Rose has generally come up with the goods here – three top-fives in his last four trips here is testament to that.

This time, he will set sail in the Bahamas reflecting on a much better year. The buzz of the Ryder Cup victory has perhaps just about worn off, but there’s still a win at Pebble Beach, top-10s in the PGA Championship and Players Championship and T16 at The Masters to reflect on.

Rose’s game is in better shape now than it was 12 months ago….he’ll be looking to parlay that into another strong showing at Albany GC.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 14th
• SG: Approach – 17th
• SG: Putting – 26th

Sleeper Pick for the Hero World Challenge

Sepp Straka (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 65.2, Salary: $6,700)

If 2023 was a breakout year for Wyndham Clark, then the same – relatively speaking – can be said for Sepp Straka.

A winner at the John Deere Classic, Straka also finished T2 at the British Open and played his part in the Ryder Cup victory – it’s certainly been a year to remember for the Austrian. 

That concludes with an invitation to the Hero World Challenge, where Straka should feel comfortable given the form he showed at Royal Liverpool in the summer and at the RBC Heritage previously.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 23rd
• Driving Accuracy – 33rd
• SG: Putting – 60th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Hero World Challenge

Brian Harman (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 77.5, Salary: $6,400)

We backed Brian Harman in this very column for the British Open, and much of what we said there rings true for a major champion who is an expert at keeping his ball in play when others can’t.

Strong showings at Mayakoba, and in the Tournament of Champions and RSM Classic, confirm that this is the kind of golf that reaps the biggest rewards for the accurate left hander.

All of these invites to star studded events are new for Harman, but you sense that it will be a case of business as usual for a player who only knows how to play the sport one way….and very well, all the same.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 16th
• SG: Putting – 27th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 36th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season (2023-2024)

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