Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Memorial Tournament

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Memorial Tournament  

Memorial Tournament Fantasy Preview

With just one win between them on the PGA TOUR in a combined 403 starts, it was always likely that one of Emiliano Grillo, Adam Schenk and Harry Hall – the main protagonists on Sunday at the Charles Schwab Challenge – was going to have to do things the hard way.

They played their back nines in level par, +1 and +3 respectively – closing out a win is hard, remember – but that was just about enough to land Grillo and Schenk a place in a playoff.

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Grillo was two shots clear heading into the final hole, but hit his drive into some running water that carried his ball back down the slope and almost back to the tee box. Calamitous.

The Argentine made a six, but watched with relish as Hall hit his drive on the 72nd hole into a pond.

And then, on the playoff, Schenk flew the green with his approach on the second extra hole, gifting Grillo victory – but only after his somewhat errant approach enjoyed a very helpful bounce from a bunker’s edge.

It was, at times, painful to watch. But Grillo won’t care – he’s now a two-time PGA TOUR champion.

Will the Memorial Tournament gives us such a titanic ending this week?

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

With our best finish, Max Homa, coming in at T9 last week, we’ll admit it was definitely an “off-week” for us.   

No fear, we’ll pick up the slack for one of our favorite events of the year – and one we’ve had success at picking winners in the past.

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The Memorial Tournament Field

As one of the more challenging layouts on the PGA TOUR, Muirfield Village tends to attract a high-class field of players looking for a tune-up ahead of the U.S. Open in a fortnight’s time.

So that’s why Scottie Scheffler, whose relentless schedule of commitments continues, headlines a field that also includes Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and – to round out the top-five of the OWGR – Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay.

Billy Horschel, the defending champion, joins a field that also includes former Muirfield Village winners in Collin Morikawa and Hideki Matsuyama, while a stack of recent victors on TOUR – Grillo, Wyndham Clark, Jason Day and co – will be looking to frank their good form.

This Week’s Course Preview

Muirfield Village is, undoubtedly, one of Jack Nicklaus’ best forays into golf course design – it even takes its name from the location of one of his famous British Open triumphs.

It’s hosted this event since 1976, with regular tweaks and renovations helping to retain its difficulty – winning scores of -13, -13 and -9 in recent years, posted by top-class fields, are evidence of its relative challenge. 

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It’s core defenses are length (7,533 yards for its Par 72), thick rough and small greens, which are typically firm and fast. Water is in play on 12 holes too, so there’s danger lurking amidst what can be a head-scratching assignment given the unique undulations and elevation changes.

Only five holes averaged under par last year and four of them were the Par 5s, with two of the three hardest holes coming at 17 and 18, where the birdie-to-bogey-or-worse ratio was around 1:4 in 2022. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over on the Sunday of the Memorial Tournament, that’s for sure.

The quality of the five most recent winners – Horschel, Cantlay (x2), Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau – confirms that only the very best have thrived at Muirfield Village, and the uplift of this tournament to designated status would suggest that pattern will continue this week.

Weather Forecast for Dublin, OH

The weather conditions look set to lend themselves to another firm and fast week at Muirfield Village.

Thursday gets us off to a warm and sunny start, with temperatures hitting 89 degrees on what is likely to be a rain and largely wind-free day at 7mph.

The conditions will remain largely the same for the rest of the tournament, with sunny spells and warm temperatures the dominant force. The wind could peak on Saturday at around 11mph.

DUBLIN WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Memorial Tournament

Billy Horschel made light work of Muirfield Village last year, recording a round of 65 on the Saturday and finishing as the only player on double-digits under par at -13.

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He got his week off to a steady start (70-68), romped through Saturday and then appeared to be tight on Sunday – a birdie-free front nine opening the door to the likes of Aaron Wise, Joaquin Niemann and Cantlay.

But a birdie on ten and a huge eagle putt on fifteen – on a day when chances to break par were few and far between – were enough for Horschel to secure a memorable four-shot victory over Wise.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Memorial Tournament this Week

We’re having to comb through a deep field of players this week, but having a strong sense of what it takes to be successful at Muirfield Village, we can draft our lineups with some confidence – and enter contests accordingly.

• PGA $350k Drive the Green: For $20, you can enter four different lineups into this contest to spread risk and minimize variance, while enjoying a chance to win an epic $50k top prize.

• PGA $75k Birdie: There’s a similar theme in this Birdie contest, although you’ll get even more bang for your buck with a $3 charge for each entry. There’s plenty of chances to win $100+ right up to the top payout of $7,500. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

In his playing days, Nicklaus was known as a metronomic ball-striker – one of the reasons that Muirfield Village is so iconic is that it rewards those who excel from tee-to-green as well.

Make no mistake: you’ll need to make some putts on these fast Bentgrass greens. But the edge is to be found prior to that, with five of the top-nine on the leaderboard last year ranking inside the top-10 for SG: Tee-to-Green. 

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The key is in long, straight hitting, with missed fairways not ideal given the nature of the rough here. The longer you drive, the shorter your approach – extra loft is always welcome into these fast, small greens.

There’s an emphasis on approaches from the 175 yard and longer range – particularly for those attacking the Par 5s, which remain almost exclusively as Muirfield’s only true scoreable holes.

And the last five individual winners at Muirfield Village have either been major champions or previously won the FedEx Cup – it’s no coincidence that thoroughbreds have prevailed here with such regularity.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Memorial Tournament   

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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