Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Open Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Open Championship  

Open Championship Fantasy Preview

Rory McIlroy described his win at the Scottish Open as one of the ‘proudest’ of his career.

There was some recency bias to that statement, of course, and no doubt the adrenaline of his approach shot on the final hole – a mammoth 2-iron into a headwind on the tricky eighteenth that settled ten-feet from the cup.

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That enabled McIlroy to reel in home favorite Robert MacIntyre and clinch a 24th PGA TOUR title – taking him level with Gary Player and Dustin Johnson on the all-time list. Perhaps as importantly, it was perfect preparation for the British Open this week; the final major of 2023.

If the pro-Rory vibes couldn’t get anymore off the chart, the host venue – the Royal Liverpool Club at Hoylake – was where McIlroy won his sole British Open title back in 2014….

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week our top pick was Xander and unfortunately our guy just didn’t show up. 

The one shining star for us was Tom Kim, who ended up being in the hunt most of the week and finishing up at T6.

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2023 Open Championship Field

The column inches will be dominated by Rory this week, while Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm round out the top-three in the betting.

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Defending champion Cameron Smith, who won a LIV Golf event on UK soil recently, will be of interest to many, as will his fellow LIV colleague and perennial major hunter Brooks Koepka.

The PGA TOUR’s supporting cast of Viktor Hovland, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay could well make the headlines, while the British charge will no doubt be led by Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry.

And the Liverpool crowd will be on Tiger watch too. No, sadly, Mr Woods isn’t playing, but a young German amateur by the name of Tiger Christensen is – no prizes for guessing who his parents were inspired by….

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s been nine years since Royal Liverpool last hosted the British Open, and the golf world has changed beyond recognition since then – although the 1-2 back in 2014 of McIlroy-Fowler is still very much en vogue nearly a decade later.

But has the layout changed? For the most part, the answer appears to be no – this is the same Links track in Merseyside, England that took on hosting duties all those years ago.

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It measures 7,383 yards for its Par 71 (it played as a Par 72 in 2014), although the true length of each hole will be determined by which direction the wind is coming from – and at what speed. 

There’s no doubt that the fairways and greens will run super-fast, but from the images/videos we’ve seen the fescue rough doesn’t look all that daunting – an unseasonably warm summer in the UK perhaps putting pay to that.

Rory won here with -17 in 2014 and Tiger, eight years prior, in -18 at Royal Liverpool, so this isn’t the devilish Links track you might come to expect for the British Open.

Padraig Harrington, a two-time British Open champion, has been involved in a project to help get the course Open ready, and some changes have been made that will improve the complexity of it. A completely new Par 3 at 17 will replace the old Par 4, with a raised green sat around 12 feet above the bunkers and run-off areas below.

Meanwhile, the tenth has been remodelled as a Par 4 from a Par 5 – meaning that the players will have to overcome a 500-yard stretch with a crosswind with one fewer shot to par.

Those changes, allied to the construction of a number of new bunkers across the real estate, may well push the winning score closer to -10 this week – although a fairly benign weather forecast may yet have something to say about that.

Weather Forecast for Hoylake, UK

Wind and rain are two of the dominant factors when playing Links golf in the UK, and this week’s British Open Championship looks set to be no different.

In fact, there’s rain forecast to some degree across all four days, and if those downpours are significant enough to slow down the greens then a winning score of -20 or lower is very much in the offing.

Wind speeds range from 14mph on Thursday down to 10mph on Sunday, and while those will feel pretty stiff when rolling in off the Irish Sea, it’s actually pretty calm when you consider that much of the UK was hit with a 40mph zephyr last Saturday.

It won’t be pretty at times, but at least the 2023 British Open will be played in what can only be described as quintessential British conditions.

HOYLAKE WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Open Championship

You could almost feel the awkwardness around St Andrews, the oft-considered home of golf, when LIV rebel Cameron Smith blitzed the course to win his maiden major.

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The Australian fired six birdies on the back nine – including five in a row – to come home in 60, and confirm the awkward truth that, sadly, St Andrews is no longer fit for major golf in its current form.

As if to emphasize the point, Cameron Young made an eagle on the Par 4 closing hole, and his run to the Claret Jug would later be halted by a juggernaut of a performance from Smith.

There won’t have been many backing the Australian at the 54-hole stage, particularly with seasoned campaigners McIlroy and Hovland sharing the lead with a round to play. 

But neither could get it going in the Sunday spotlight – McIlroy, curiously, made 16 pars on a day of low scoring as Smith accelerated to the line and caused a number of red faces amongst the traditionalists at St Andrews, who were forced to hand the Claret Jug to a persona non grata at a time when the PGA-LIV civil war was at its fiercest.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Open Championship this Week

In theory, the British Open will be a case of as you were from the Scottish Open – particularly if Royal Liverpool is soft and amenable. So, you know what to do: hit up some contests that will enable you to maximize your return from an affordable outlay.

• PGA $3m Fantasy Golf Millionaire: The last major of the year presents the last opportunity to play a Fantasy Golf Millionaire contest this season, which offers the dual reward of a $1 million top prize and a ticket to the money-spinning Tournament of Champions contest later in the year.

• PGA $600k Drive the Green: If you’re looking for a more budget-friendly contest to enter, this Drive the Green event is $5 a go and still boasts plenty of handsome payouts – not least the $50k that the winner will trouser.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

If you’re looking for a solid roster of players this week, putting in the hard yards and finding those with an excellent Links pedigree is the way to go – Royal Liverpool is a classic Links golf in every sense of the description. 

The traditional ‘fairways and greens’ mantra will be applied this week – particularly with extra greenside hazards added to the course since 2014, and control in the wind will also be a huge factor.

If the rain does fall, the British Open will become a war of attrition too, so those willing to dig deep and grind out a low score in wind and rain will be of particular interest.

Long, straight driving, low ball flight, quality approach play, a decent chipping game when needed and comfort putting on Links greens….put all of those ingredients into the mix and you will come up with a Frankenstein’s monster capable of winning the 2023 British Open.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Open Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Open Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Viktor Hovland (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 86.8, Salary: $10,000)

The question we face this week is are we going to eat Rory McIlroy – the defending Royal Liverpool champion and winner last week – chalk?

Are we going to take a chance on Scottie Scheffler’s misfiring putter on what can be difficult Links greens to roll the rock on?

There is, perhaps, an argument to be made for spreading our risk and our salary cap this week, so our first pick belongs to Viktor Hovland, a player who has the ability to be a multiple-time major champion.

Given that his best work tends to come in a strong breeze as others flail, it’s no surprise that the Norwegian has taken kindly to Links golf – his two outings in the British Open thus far have yielded T4 and T12 finishes.

A brilliant ball-striker and reliable putter, Hovland has even gained stokes on the field around the green in three of his last four starts – unusual indeed given his chipping flaws, so all of the signs point towards a very good week for the 25-year-old.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 7th
• Birdie Average – 10th
• SG: Approach – 19th

Top Tier Pick #2

Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 81.3, Salary: $9,400)

Although he didn’t really contend for the silverware, Tyrrell Hatton struck the ball nicely in his T6 finish at the Scottish Open and continued his love affair with golf in those conditions that have yielded a pair of Alfred Dunhill Links Championship titles.

It will be more of the same in Liverpool, with Hoylake a traditional Links layout, and Hatton’s ball-striking prowess and solid ground game should once again come in very handy. The Brit has also gained strokes on the field putting in his last eight worldwide starts – if he creates birdie chances, he is prime position to take them.

Although Hatton’s record in the British Open is a mixed bag, finishes of T5, T6 and T11 offer a glimpse of what he is capable of.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 10th
• SG: Approach – 14th
• Birdie Average – 18th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Shane Lowry (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 65.2, Salary: $9,100)

When you look back on his career, Shane Lowry has a surprisingly mixed British Open record.

There’s four missed cuts on the resumé, although those are overcome somewhat by his victory in 2019 and T9 and T12 finishes elsewhere.

Lowry is an outstanding ball-striker who is renowned for the quality of his chipping – even if the stats don’t always bear that out, but most eye-catching for us is that the Irishman has gained strokes on the field putting in five of his last six starts worldwide….a run that includes two majors and an incredible +1.97 gain at the Scottish Open.

When Lowry is putting well in Links conditions, he is surely going to be there or thereabouts at the top of the leaderboard.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 13th
• Scoring Average – 20th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 28th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Brian Harman (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 65.1, Salary: $7,300)

We drafted Brian Harman for the Scottish Open last week and the leftie did the business for us: hovering around the top-five for much of the tournament before tailing off to T12.

But that was positive enough from a player whose career has been built on keeping his ball on a string no matter what the conditions, and T6 at St Andrews in this very tournament last year was exhibit A of that.

Golf tends to be a grind when you only hit the ball 294 yards off the tee on average, so make no mistake: Harman has the fortitude to hang in there when the going gets tough.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 7th 
• Scoring Average – 31st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 58th

Low-Tier Pick

Byeong Hun An (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 64.2, Salary: $7,000)

Two positive putting performances in a row, while a small sample, are enough to convince that Byeong Hun An is worth chancing at an affordable price.

The Korean finished T3 at the Scottish Open in a performance in which his ball-striking did the heavy lifting, but strokes gained on the field on the greens – as he did at the John Deere Classic – should give An renewed vigor.

With cuts made in four of his last five British Open starts, An has made a habit of outperforming expectations in this tournament, and his is a resumé that hints that firm and fast conditions by the coast are his golfing happy place.

Key Stats:

• SG: Around-the-Green – 3rd
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 34th
• Scrambling – 11th

Sleeper Pick for the Open Championship

Nick Taylor (Odds: 300/1, FPPG: 61.4, Salary: $7,100)

It’s a British Open debut for Nick Taylor, but we have full belief he can take full advantage of his opportunity.

The Canadian Open champion fired an excellent 65 on Saturday at the Scottish Open, before tougher conditions on Sunday saw him settle for T19. 

Still, that’s a handy look-in for a player that has also won at Pebble Beach and recorded a number of strong finishes at Waialae in the Sony Open – perhaps the most classical Links-style courses used on the PGA TOUR rotation.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 32nd
• SG: Approach – 33rd
• SG: Around-the-Green – 49th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Open Championship

Louis Oosthuizen (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 62.3, Salary: $6,900)

Once upon a time, you would have been mocked royally for putting Louis Oosthuizen up for a British Open at $6,900.

At odds of 120/1, the sportsbooks are protecting their position against the South African, who won this tournament in 2010 and recorded a pair of other top-threes in it as well.

Out of sight, out of mind at LIV Golf, Oosthuizen nonetheless finished solo fourth at LIV London a couple of weeks ago and has other top-10s to his name this season.

Key Stats:

• N/A

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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