Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 RBC Canadian Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 RBC Canadian Open  

RBC Canadian Open Fantasy Preview

All you can hope for when you’re bidding for a maiden PGA TOUR title is to have your destiny in your own hands.

Denny McCarthy did at the Memorial Tournament, needing to make par or better at the final hole on Sunday to finally get his hands on some silverware.

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And, well, he couldn’t take advantage.

McCarthy yanked his drive into the rough and was forced into laying up, meaning that a bogey was almost a formality. On the first playoff hole against Viktor Hovland, his approach didn’t have enough legs and cruelly rolled off the green, handing the Norwegian his fourth PGA TOUR title – and his first on American soil.

It’s back to the grind for McCarthy, who broke a logjam of players – 41 were within five shots of the lead heading into the final round at Muirfield Village, with seven of those ranked inside the world’s top-10 – to strike clear on his own on Sunday. Sadly for him, he wasn’t far enough clear.

Next week sees the U.S. Open head to Los Angeles, but in the meantime the players will be heading north of the border for the RBC Canadian Open.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Winner-Winner! Hovland marks our 6th winner picked on the season – so to all those sportsbook heroes who love to throw cash at ALL 7 of our main picks, congrats on that one!

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The RBC Canadian Open Field

The Canadian golf specialist, Rory McIlroy, returns to the country hoping to complete a unique ‘three-peat’. He won this tournament in 2019 and again in 2022 at different courses, with the editions in between cancelled due to the Covid pandemic. So McIlroy could complete a hat-trick of consecutive Canadian Open victories at three different layouts.

Matt Fitzpatrick will be tuning up his game ahead of the defense of his U.S. Open title, and he will be joined in the field by fellow Brits (and Irishman) Justin Rose, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry.

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Sam Burns, Cameron Young and Keith Mitchell will be eyeing a morale-boosting victory ahead of the next major, while the likes of Sahith Theegala and Adrian Meronk will be seeking their first win on the PGA TOUR.

The home charge will be led by three players that have won on TOUR this year already: Corey Conners, MacKenzie Hughes and Adam Svensson.

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s off to a brand new golf course to the PGA TOUR we go.

Oakdale Golf & Country Club in Toronto is yet to host a significant tournament, and so unfortunately we’re taking a step into the unknown as we try to analyze what will be the key factors this week.

One thing we do know is that the layout is a short 7,264 yards for its Par 72, and having looked at the hole-by-hole (available on the Oakdale website), it does appear that approach play from within the 100-yard range will be vital – more than a handful of Par 4 holes here are under or just over the 400-yard mark.

It’s also worth noting the unique scorecard – three Par 5s, three Par 3s and 12 Par 4s – and the final hole, which is a Par 5 measuring just 496 yards – one of the shortest on TOUR. It does, however, play as one of the steepest uphill holes you are likely to see at this level too.

The greens are a Bentgrass/Poa mix, which tend to run slower than purer grasses – Poa is particularly hardy and so stands up to the colder weather. That could be a key factor in determining our draft this week.

Another item for the notebook is that Stanley Thompson designed 18 of the 27 holes that make up Oakdale’s real estate, with a composite 18 of those used for the Canadian Open. Interestingly, Mark Andrew was called upon to restore the other nine to Thompson’s initial blueprints, while that same Thompson-Andrew combination was at play at the host of last year’s Canadian Open, St George’s. Perhaps that edition holds some useful clues….

Weather Forecast for Toronto, Ontario, CAN

Cooler, windier and with rain in the early forecast for Sunday, the players will certainly notice the difference this week in Canada.

Thursday looks set to be cool with a top temperature of around 64 degrees and winds of 11mph too, while Friday should be sunnier and a touch warmer as a result at 66 degrees.

The weekend will also see double-digits as far as wind speeds are concerned, and while Saturday looks set to be dry and warm (73 degrees), Sunday could be a wet one with considerable showers in those early predictions. 

TORONTO WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the RBC Canadian Open

An outstanding final round of 62, which featured a whopping ten birdies, was enough for Rory McIlroy to reel in Tony Finau and Justin Thomas and claim a second successive Canadian Open title at St George’s.

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Sam Burns and Justin Rose rounded out the top-five, with the latter threatening a round of 59 on Sunday – bogeys at 16 and 18 frustratingly costing Rose a slice of golfing infamy.

Conners was the best of the home contingent in solo sixth, but nobody could wrestle the trophy from the grasp of McIlroy, whose final score of -19 really does take some doing at what was a Par 70 layout.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the RBC Canadian Open this Week

One week shy of a major and at a course we’ve never seen before, it would take a brave fantasy golfer to go in all guns blazing this week. A conservative approach is likely to be the smart one until we know more about Oakdale as a competitive golf layout…

• GOLF TOUR $60k Birdie: You may want to draft a few different rosters this week, but you’re perhaps best not so spend too much on entries – this $3 contest at least gives you some scope and comes with a handy $6k top prize as well.

• GOLF TOUR $40k Mini Leaderboard Special: When conditions are tough – as they are for fantasy gamers this week, trying a silver bullet at a single-entry contest can at least minimize your losses if things don’t go your way. You’ll pay $6 to enter this game that boasts a $5k top prize.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

As always with an event played at a golf course never-before-seen from a tournament perspective, we have to tread carefully.

Let’s focus on what we do know. The Thompson/Andrew lineage of designer/renovator was in play at St George’s, which was also laid with Bentgrass/Poa greens at a parklands venue that looks pretty similar to that of Oakdale. That leaderboard, which features the best players in the field at the top, could be of interest.

Having tried to map out each hole, it’s quite possible that laying up and hitting approaches from 100 yards or in will be the order of the day this week. Several of the Par 4s will play at less than 400 years, and while some will be attacked off the tee most will simply hit a fairway wood and then hit a wedge close – that’s the plan, anyway.

The routing of the Par 5s also hints at laying up rather than full attack mode, so again wedge play could be vitally important.

We will have to wait and see if Oakdale can be over-powered, but total driving could also be a useful stat this week – length is always an advantage, but some of the tree-lines appear to be pretty thick and so errant drives are likely to result in blocked out approach shots. 

And remember that Bentgrass/Poa combination on the greens. That should lead to pure surfaces, but they will probably run a little slower than normal – Californians and those with form on the West Coast swing will perhaps be in their element.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the RBC Canadian Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the RBC Canadian Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 80.1, Salary: $10,200)

The weather and the conditions at Oakdale suggest that non-Americans will gain something of an edge given their familiarity with cooler, slower golf.

Whether slower greens play into the hands of Tyrrell Hatton we’ll have to wait and see, but there’s only a small handful of players in world golf that are playing as well as the Brit right now – and most of them aren’t playing at the Canadian Open.

In his last seven strokeplay starts, Hatton has gained strokes on the field in five off them off the tee, four on approach and around-the-green and in five putting, so his all-round game could not be in better shape.

That’s manifested itself in quality results too: five consecutive top-20s (including two top-fives) following a T34 at The Masters.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 11th
• SG: Approach – 18th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 26th

Top Tier Pick #2

Shane Lowry (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 62.1, Salary: $9,400)

Another of golf’s men for all occasions is Shane Lowry, whose Irish upbringing ensures that he’s comfortable enough in cool conditions and on more sluggish greens.

T16 at The Masters and T12 at the PGA Championship, Lowry was also in decent form at the Memorial Tournament, where a finish of T16 was backed by an effort that saw him gain +1.34 strokes on the field with his ball striking. 

A top-10 finish at St George’s in this event 12 months ago is another handy indicator of Lowry’s ability to contend this week.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 7th
• SG: Approach – 14th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 16th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Joseph Bramlett (Odds: 75/1, FPPG: 61.7, Salary: $8,200)

Joseph Bramlett’s T16 at the Memorial Tournament was his third top-20 finish in his last five starts, which confirms that the penny is dropping for this talented ball-striker.

His success at Muirfield Village was built, happily, on tee-to-green efficiency, which is a continuation of a run in which Bramlett has bested the field off-the-tee and on approach in four of his last five outings.

The Californian has proven himself to be at home on Poa-based greens, so there’s plenty of reasons for his backers to be hopeful this week.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from Inside 100 yards – 22nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 29th
• Birdie Average – 39th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Harry Hall (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 61.9, Salary: $7,600)

Although you wouldn’t describe Oakdale as ‘tight’ at first glance, some of the mature tree-lines do leave little room off the tee.

Those were the conditions at Colonial where Harry Hall had a chance to win a maiden PGA TOUR title a few weeks ago – the Brit admitting that ‘mistakes’ ultimately cost him a shot at the trophy.

But that T3 finish is notable, and Hall’s excellence on approach from 125 yards and inside should stand him in excellent stead at a layout where making birdies on the back of accurate wedge play looks to be the route to success.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 6th
• Approaches from 50-125 yards – 28th
• Birdie Average – 28th

Low-Tier Pick

David Lipsky (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 50.4, Salary: $7,400)

In the blink of an eye, David Lipsky has eroded the memory of two missed cuts with a pair of top-20 finishes at the Charles Schwab Challenge and last week’s Memorial Tournament.

The catalyst? That’s simple: Lipsky has hit his iron and wedge approaches so much better, and when you do that good things tend to happen.

A lack of length shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance at Oakdale, and instead Lipsky can let his excellent short-range approach play shine.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 50-125 yards – 11th
• Driving Accuracy – 37th
• Total Birdies – 51st

Sleeper Pick for the RBC Canadian Open

Mark Hubbard (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 54.7, Salary: $7,300)

Since the start of April, Mark Hubbard has been in electrifying form with irons and wedges – gaining strokes on the field on approach in all six of his strokeplay outings.

That’s a run that has commanded six top-30 finishes, including T9 at the Charles Schwab and T11 at the Mexico Open, so Hubbard heads to Canada feeling pretty good about his game.

He will pick and plot his way around Oakdale, and will surely benefit from his college education in California when it comes to reading these Poa-infused greens.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 23rd
• SG: Approach – 27th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 39th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the RBC Canadian Open

Carson Young (Odds: 180/1, FPPG: 50.0, Salary: $7,100)

Although not the pre-eminent C.Young in this week’s field, Carson deserves credit for his continued ascendance on the PGA TOUR.

He may lack Cameron’s explosive driving, but Carson Young finds plenty of fairways and had benefitted of late in an uptick in his approach play – strokes gained in that department have led to T14, T15, T19 and T21 finishes on TOUR since the start of April alone.

His season-long stats are nothing to write home about, but based on his form in the past eight weeks Young should comfortably outperform expectations in Canada.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 49th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 50th
• Greens in Regulation – 53rd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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