Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 RSM Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 RSM Classic  

RSM Classic Fantasy Preview

Sometimes, golfers of all levels and abilities need a reminder to stick at their game; even when your swing has gone, there’s a chance it will all fall back into place again in the future with hard work and perseverance.

Camilo Villegas became the latest in a long line of PGA TOUR pros to prove that continuing to show up at the range can yield dividends when he won the Bermuda Championship on Sunday – his first TOUR level win in nearly a decade.

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The Colombian has experienced the most destabilizing of events in his life, with his infant daughter losing her life to illness back in 2020. Some things in life are simply bigger than sport.

The sportsbooks had written him off – you could get 150/1 about Villegas despite his excellent performance at the World Wide Tech Championship the week prior, but as the old adage goes ‘form is temporary, class is permanent’, so perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that a guy who was once ranked inside the world’s top-30 players would, one day, come back around again.

As Villegas celebrates, it’s commiserations for DFS gamers: this week’s RSM Classic is the final chance to play ‘proper’ fantasy golf in 2023. It’s also the last chance saloon for those that haven’t locked up their playing privileges in 2024, so there’s plenty riding on the trip to St Simons Island.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Winner, winner!   

Taking Camilo on our Tuesday Sleeper Report last week was a risky move, but we’re glad we ran with him. He was too hot leaving Mexico and he definitely could not be overlooked.  

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2023 RSM Classic Field

So many golfers come from, or have set up home, in close proximity to St Simons Island in Georgia, so it comes as no surprise to learn that many are dusting off their clubs for one last dance in 2023.

Brian Harman, Russell Henley, Cameron Young and Corey Conners have played very little golf since the end of the regular season, but they’ve been tempted out alongside Denny McCarthy, Harris English and JT Poston.

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Ludvig Aberg and Eric Cole will be looking to sign off on their impressive years on a high, while defending champion Adam Svensson will be looking to parlay that into successive titles alongside former winners on St Simons Island like Chris Kirk, Mackenzie Hughes and Kevin Kisner.

And it’s go time for a number of PGA TOUR veterans: Ryan Moore, Ryan Palmer, Patton Kizzire and Scott Piercy are currently outside the top 125 of the FedEx Fall Series, which means their automatic PGA TOUR status would become conditional next year if they don’t find a big performance this week.

This Week’s Course Preview

The PGA TOUR signs off on 2023 with a trip to a split course layout.

The Sea Island club plays host to two tracks – the Seaside Course and the Plantation Course – which are played on a rotation over the opening two days, before the action switches to the Seaside layout for the weekend.

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That generally plays as the tougher of the two: a short (7,005 yard Par 70) and claustrophobic layout reimagined by Tom Fazio that features tight fairways and fast, undulating Bermuda greens. With water in play on 13 of the holes, there’s plenty to concentrate the minds of the players.

The Plantation Course is somewhat more forgiving, with extensive tree coverage providing the players with some respite from the harsh wind that typically blows around here. There’s the full set of four Par 5s in the Par 72 routing too, so this short parklands track typically serves up more scoring opportunities.

The Seaside Course still plays pretty easy, weather permitting, with a pair of easy Par 5s and a 368-yard Par 4 that leaves even the shorter hitters with a flick wedge in to the pin. The 18th, a risk and reward Par 4, also offers promise for those that hit an accurate approach shot into a well-guarded green.

Weather Forecast for St. Simons Island, GA

The weather can get pretty funky in this corner of Georgia, and that looks to be the order of the day this week.

At the time of writing, there was actually a weather warning in place for south-east Georgia – a coastal flood alert, to be exact, so plenty of rain and high winds (up to 20mph) are expected; that could be the theme on Thursday and Friday, too.

The early predictions suggest the weekend should be a little calmer, with sunny spells and lower wind speeds of around 10-12mph. Temperatures could reach 75 degrees.

ST. SIMONS ISLAND WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the RSM Classic

Adam Svensson showed the virtues of remaining patient in split-course golf with his victory here 12 months ago – a maiden PGA TOUR triumph for the Canadian.

He opened with a round of 73 at the Seaside Course, but returned with a 64 at the Plantation on Friday and an outstanding 62 in easier conditions at the Seaside on Saturday.

That ensured Svensson would enjoy the 54-hole lead, and he showed no nerves or signs of slowing down in his final round – a flawless, bogey-free 64 the perfect way to claim your first PGA TOUR trophy.

The likes of Brian Harman and Sahith Theegala pushed hard on the Sunday with low rounds of their own, but they left themselves with just too much to do to hunt down the charging Canadian.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the RSM Classic this Week

It’s hard to say goodbye, but the RSM Classic represents your last chance of 2023 to play full-field DFS on the PGA TOUR.

Shall we go out in a blaze of glory? That’s the aim, and with a potentially weak top of the market – given how little golf the likes of Harman and co have played lately – we can try our luck in these contests with a more balanced set of lineups.

• PGA $100k Drive the Green: It’s the mainstay tournament for those willing to wager $5 or multiples of it, with the $25k top prize representing an enticing carrot. It’s multi-entry too, so there’s opportunities to tweak your locked-in picks for the optimum roster.

• PGA $300k Sand Trap: If you’ve built up a bankroll this season and seek an opportunity to spend it, now seems as good a time as any – this $25 entry contest boasts a jackpot of $100k, so why not line up your tanks on the lawn here. 

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Sometimes the easiest way to get a read on a tournament or a golf course is to look at those that have won or finished second there in recent times.

For the RSM Classic, that list reads Svensson, Harman, Talor Gooch, Mackenzie Hughes, Robert Streb, Kevin Kisner, Tyler Duncan, Webb Simpson, Charles Howell III and so on.

You don’t need to be a PGA TOUR historian to know that its accuracy off the tee that draws all of these disparate individuals together, as well as some ability on Bermuda greens to finish off birdie putts.

Even though this is an event where birdies are key – the winning score is generally around -19, there’s still a need to keep your ball well under control; aimless bombers need not apply. Fairways is the key, which means those that are accurate off the tee, or those with the power to club down and enjoy a higher driving accuracy % as a result, are the likeliest of candidates on St Simons Island.

There’s plenty of these exposed, coastal tracks on TOUR too. The Bermuda Championship last week can be used as a guide, while the likes of Mayakoba (the former home of the World Wide Tech Championship), Waialae (Sony Open) and Pebble Beach can also be used as reference points.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the RSM Classic   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the RSM Classic  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Justin Suh (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 90.3, Salary: $9,200)

If you had to nominate a player you expect to win their first PGA TOUR title in the near future, it’s possible that Justin Suh would be somewhere near the top of the list.

Accurate off the tee and with an excellent putting stroke, finding the right event for Suh to land that maiden victory is the key – perhaps the Sea Island layouts are the ideal place, given his skillset.

With back-to-back top-10 finishes at the World Wide Tech Championship and ZOZO Championship, Suh’s game is in a tremendous place right now – the timing just feels right for a guy that’s also finished inside the top-30 of the two majors he played in this year.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 5th
• SG: Putting – 9th
• Driving Accuracy – 47th

Top Tier Pick #2

Adam Svensson (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 88.4, Salary: $8,600)

It’s pretty darn difficult to successfully defend a PGA TOUR title – the history books teach us that. But perhaps when you’re not a household name and expectations are lower, playing without the added pressure is a welcome bonus.

Besides which, Adam Svensson is playing some good golf right now, and heads to a pair of courses that evidently suit his game full of confidence. 

Five finishes of T21 or better in his last nine outings also set the scene for the Canadian, whose business during this Fall Swing perhaps gives him an edge over the better-known names above him in the rankings here.

Accurate off the tee, classy on approach and methodical on the greens, don’t be surprised if Svensson puts up a bold title defense this week.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 3rd
• Driving Accuracy – 42nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 43rd

Mid-Tier Pick #1

J.J. Spaun (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 83.3, Salary: $8,000)

One player that loves this attritional kind of golf by the coast is J.J. Spaun.

A former runner-up in this event, Spaun has also finished 15th and 16th on St Simons Island and has a stack of top-20s in the Sony Open, Tournament of Champions and Mayakoba in similar conditions.

Spaun heads to the end of the land in good form right now too, with T6 at the ZOZO Championship following T11 at the Fortinet Championship.

Forever seemingly one good putting week away from contending for more PGA TOUR silverware, we can hope that Spaun’s recent good results can enhance his feel and confidence on the greens.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 21st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 30th
• Driving Accuracy – 45th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Taylor Pendrith (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 89.1, Salary: $7,600)

As mentioned, our preference for the RSM Classic is accurate, fairway finders – the history books inform us of that.

But there’s a case to be made for longer hitters who can club down, find more fairways and still leave themselves a mid-range iron into the green, which is why Taylor Pendrith finds his way onto our roster this week.

The Canadian was in decent form on his way to T8 at the Bermuda Championship, following T3 at the Shriners and T15 at the World Wide Technology Championship.

A return of 15-26 in this event is encouraging enough, so Pendrith brings together current and course form in what can often be a tasty sandwich for DFS gamers.

Key Stats:

• Putting Inside 10ft – 7th
• Greens in Regulation – 26th
• Approaches from Inside 100 Yards (Rough) – 41st

Low-Tier Pick

Ryan Palmer (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 73.6, Salary: $7,200)

This seems like a more than fair price about a player who has combined back-to-back top-10s in Mexico and Bermuda.

We don’t have ShotLink data for a deeper analysis, but Palmer’s general driving accuracy and GIR stats for the two events have been good, and his strength off the tee should be a real help on St Simons Island – whether he takes out the big stick or a more conservative club, you can be confident he will find plenty of fairways.

A former Sony Open winner with top-fives in the Scottish Open and Tournament of Champions, Palmer really does like to be beside the seaside. 

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 34th
• Birdie Average – 44th
• SG: Approach – 54th

Sleeper Pick for the RSM Classic

Kelly Kraft (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 84.0, Salary: $6,700)

Let’s take another dance around the fountain with Kelly Kraft, who found 75% of fairways in regulation in Bermuda to continue his fine ball-striking form.

Three consecutive top-25 finishes at the Fortinet Championship through Shriners were fired by excellent approach play, and so with Kraft we’re expecting plenty of fairways and GIR to be made.

Putting? Well, that’s an occasional problem for him, but if he’s getting to the green in good order on St Simons Island then that’s an excellent start for a player at this throwaway price.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 18th
• Rough Proximity – 36th
• SG: Putting – 44th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the RSM Classic

Satoshi Kodaira (Odds: 225/1, FPPG: 56.1, Salary: $6,600)

If Villegas’ ascent to PGA TOUR silverware from absolutely nowhere was a surprise, maybe we could see lightning strike twice with Satoshi Kodaira as well.

He found 80.6% of GIR in Bermuda – only Villegas himself enjoyed a better ratio, to continue an improvement that saw him finish T12 at the ZOZO Championship a few weeks ago too.

Although a prolific champion in Japan and the rest of Asia, perhaps Kodaira’s best moment in golf came when he won the 2016 RBC Heritage; played on an island in South Carolina   buffeted by an Atlantic breeze. Sound familiar? Hopefully, the Japanese ace will feel right at home.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 2nd
• Proximity to Hole – 28th
• Birdie Average – 39th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season (2023-2024)

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