Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship  

Sanderson Farms Championship Fantasy Preview

Is there a more highly-pressurized environment in golf than the Ryder Cup?

Representing a team – or an entire country, to be exact – rather than yourself comes with a whole bunch of mind-funk, and it would be fair to say that the United States rather dropped the ball when it came to coping with the psychological examination that a Ryder Cup tie on the road brings.

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That said, when you look at the pressure of the PGA TOUR’s Fall Series – basically play well or perhaps kiss goodbye to your professional golf career – then you might argue that playing for your future, and thus the financial stability of your caddie and your respective families, is a level that those at the Ryder Cup are pretty fortunate to get to avoid.

The Fall Series got underway a few weeks ago at the Fortinet Championship, but now it’s full steam ahead with an uninterrupted schedule that takes us through to the RSM Classic in November.

First up, it’s the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi. 

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last event our top efforts were Brendon Todd and Max Homa, who finished 6th and T7 respectively.   

Not a bad start to the season, but it’s not the win we were eyeing.   

This week we’re seeking revenge in Mississippi.

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2023 Sanderson Farms Championship Field

Given the proximity of the Ryder Cup and the fact that this event is rarely well-travelled to, it’s once again no surprise that the Sanderson Farms Championship looks set to be a low-quality affair.

But as we’ve learned, the stakes are still high for plenty of players in this field, while those in a rather more comfortable position – i.e. the likes of Emiliano Grillo, Eric Cole, Tom Hoge and Keith Mitchell – have the luxury of playing with little pressure or concern.

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Ludvig Aberg will take his hot hand from Rome back into individual golf, although another Ryder Cupper scheduled to play this week, Nicolai Hojgaard, has taken the sensible step of withdrawing – Rome to Mississippi is a hell of a flight with a hangover.

So the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2023 is essentially a monument to those battling for their playing privileges. Mackenzie Hughes returns to defend his title, while former winners Cameron Champ, Peter Malnati, Ryan Armour and Cody Gribble will return hoping to give their respective careers a timely shot in the arm.

This Week’s Course Preview

As was the case at the Fortinet Championship, some of these Fall Swing layouts are devoid of unique characteristics – making roster builds so much more difficult. 

There’s nothing bad to be written about the Country Club of Jackson, which is a perfectly respectable and lush parklands layout flanked by gentle tree coverage and a handful of water hazards.

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But there’s super-wide fairways and greens of a size that is ample for a professional golfer, meaning that tee-to-green efficacy is rather easier to come by. 

In truth, it was noticeable that the driving accuracy count was down on the average in 2022, which suggests that a few yards have been pinched back by course marshals, while some tricky run-off areas on and around the Bermuda greens at least offers some complexity. 

But it’s hard to shake the feeling that this is little more than a putting contest, and the fact that eight of the first ten players on the leaderboard last year ranked 19th or higher in the field for SG: Putting is indicative of that.

The four Par 5s on this 7,461 yard, Par 72 layout are amongst the easiest, although perhaps the primary scoring hole is the 330-yard 15th – birdie seems almost inevitable on this drivable Par 4.

But the players will need to mind their work at the business end of their round, with holes 16 and 18 – the latter a 505-yard Par 4 – comfortably averaging over par in 2022. 

Weather Forecast for Jackson, MI

A warm and rain-free week looks likely to be in the offing for Jackson, Mississippi.

Thursday looks set to open up 89 degrees, which is a rather nice start to proceedings, with the wind set at around 6mph according to the early forecast.

Friday should be another nice day (84 degrees, 9mph) before things should cool down somewhat over the weekend, albeit to a still pleasant 73 degrees. The breeze on Saturday could reach up to 12mph, which may prove notable. 

JACKSON WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Sanderson Farms Championship

Mackenzie Hughes ended his six-year long wait for a second PGA TOUR title at last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship.

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And he did it in impressive fashion too, seeing off future Ryder Cupper Sepp Straka with a birdie on the second playoff hole after the pair had been locked at -17 at the end of four rounds.

A Friday 63 got Hughes’ title bid firmly back on track after an opening 71, while solid turns of 68 and 69 were enough to keep the field at bay as conditions toughened over the weekend.

Straka, meanwhile, played the tricky 16-18 stretch in level par on the Sunday to book his playoff place – alas he couldn’t match the Canadian’s birdie on the replayed 18th hole.

Spare a thought too for Mark Hubbard, who finished four back after a final round of 74, and Garrick Higgo, who needed a birdie down the stretch to gatecrash the playoff but simply couldn’t muster one.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Sanderson Farms Championship this Week

Now is a the perfect time to start building up a bankroll ahead of the rest of the Fall Series, although we might have to take an accumulative approach for a tournament that is notoriously difficult to model and profile.

• PGA $100k Drive the Green: It may be savvy to build a handful of lineups to spread risk this week, so this quintessential contest – $5 per entry, $25k to the winner – is a straightforward way of hopefully accumulating some cash wins.

• PGA $15k Birdie: For a similar strategy albeit one that requires a lower budget, try this $3 multi-entry contest – there’s still some decent payouts to be won from the $15k prize pool.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

You could turn yourself in knots trying to connect the dots between the last five winners of this event: Hughes, Sam Burns, Sergio Garcia, Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ.

But the connection is actually pretty straightforward: Hughes and Burns have excellent short games, Garcia – not known for his putting – has still won dozens of titles around the world (he knows what he’s doing on the greens), and Champ ranked second in SG: Putting when he lifted this trophy in 2018.

So yep, we’re in putting contest territory alright. 

Perhaps that’s because the Bermuda surfaces run at a quick speed, which can separate the wheat from the chaff as far as flourishing the flat stick is concerned, although in the case of Burns and Garcia you could also argue that they were simply amongst the best players in the field that year. 

When you scroll through the list of winners and runners-up here, something else leaps off the page: there’s a definite Southern connection. Burns (Louisiana), Straka (Alabama), Malnati (Missouri, Tennessee), Munoz (Texas) and Champ (Texas) all have some roots in this part of the country via upbringing or university, and that seems too prescriptive to be coincidental. 

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sanderson Farms Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sanderson Farms Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 64.3, Salary: $10,100)

With Burns and Garcia winning here and Theegala and Homa thriving at the Fortinet, there is a theory that the classier operators can prevail in these Fall events even though they feel wide open.

It would simply be inaccurate to suggest that Emiliano Grillo is in the same bracket as those players mentioned, but he is amongst the best ball-strikers amongst this particular company – and playing well enough of late to take full advantage.

A winner at the Charles Schwab Challenge in May, the Argentine also served up top-10s at the British Open and 3M Open, making it all the way through to the TOUR Championship to confirm his class.

A clear and obvious uptick in putting performance in the second half of 2023 also sets the scene for a player who finished T5 in this event 12 months ago.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 7th
• Total Driving – 33rd
• SG: Approach – 51st

Top Tier Pick #2

Sam Ryder (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 56.6, Salary: $8,500)

We drafted Sam Ryder in this slot at the Fortinet Championship, and he certainly didn’t let us down with a T14 finish.

He played some beautiful golf too, gaining +2.00 strokes on the field with his ball-striking, and as a reliably good putter we simply have to have Ryder on side once again.

With top-five finishes at the Texas Open and Houston Open to his credit, Ryder is no stranger to success in the Southern states – that, allied to his recent form and overall skillset, gives ample reason to get him on board.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 12th
• SG: Approach – 25th
• Birdie Average – 26th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Lee Hodges (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 54.8, Salary: $8,300)

Born and raised in Alabama, Lee Hodges fits the bill of a potential Sanderson Farms champion.

The fact that he won as recently as July at the 3M Open, delivering a career-defining ball-striking performance, is also a point of interest, as is a subsequent performance at the St Jude in August where he again excelled with his ball-striking.

So confidence will not be in short supply for a player who, like Grillo, enjoyed a significant improvement on the greens with the switch to Bermuda in the summer months. That’s enough boxes ticked to give us hope of another strong showing from Hodges this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 49th
• Total Birdies – 51st
• SG: Approach – 57th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Low-Tier Pick

Greyson Sigg (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 57.2, Salary: $7,500)

There’s a curiosity to Greyson Sigg – a player of undoubted talent who continues to frustrate himself and his backers; see six cuts missed in seven starts back in the spring.

But his form in the summer was more encouraging, with top-20s at the John Deere Classic and Travelers Championship backed by T25 last time out at the Fortinet Championship, where he gained +1.02 strokes on the field on approach.

A solid tee-to-green campaigner, Sigg delivered one of his best putting performances in months on the Bermuda greens of Sedgefield in his penultimate start. Hopefully that’s a portent of better things to come with the flat stick in hand.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 37th
• Total Birdies – 49th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 62nd

Sleeper Pick for the Sanderson Farms Championship

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sanderson Farms Championship

Robby Shelton (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 52.6, Salary: $7,000)

Because the treadmill of PGA TOUR life is so intense, often you see a player’s season unravel – it’s very hard for them to take time off and work on their game behind closed doors.

That kinda happened to Robby Shelton earlier in 2023. Between January and the start of April, he posted a T6 and three other finishes of T21 or better in seven starts. But between May and August, he missed eight cuts from eleven starts.

To us, Shelton is a better player than the latter formline suggests, and the Alabaman provide it to some extent by, having had some time away, returning with T19 at the Fortinet Championship.

Pressing the reset button can bear fruit at the elite level of sport, so it will be interesting to watch Shelton’s progress in the weeks and months ahead.

Key Stats:

• Putts per Round – 43rd
• Proximity to the Hole – 64th
• Scrambling – 66th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season (2023-2024)

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