Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Shriners Children’s Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Shriners Children’s Open  

Shriners Children’s Open Fantasy Preview

The Sanderson Farms Championship has long been the Bermuda triangle of DFS gaming and golf betting – making investment money disappear without a trace thanks to its remarkable variance and unpredictability.

And the 2023 edition was no different, with a five-man playoff to determine who would lift the trophy featuring four guys that were, shall we say, unexpectedly at the top of the leaderboard.

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The cat is out of the bag as far as Ludvig Aberg is concerned – he’s evidently the real deal, but Ben Griffin (one top-20 finish since March), Henrik Norlander (no top-20 since March), and Scott Stallings (highest finish of T26 since April) were rather more surprising in their assault on the title.

But the biggest surprise in this archetypal putting contest came in the shape of Luke List, whose season-long rank of 182nd suggests he should have been nowhere near the playoff.

However, in classic Sanderson Farms fashion, logic was turned on its head as List ranked seventh in the field on the greens and birdied the first extra hole to capture his second PGA TOUR title.

Here’s some good news after a week to forget: the next Fall Series event, the Shriners Childrens Open, is rather more predictable in the kinds of player that thrive in it.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Rough week at the Sanderson, with our best finishes at T16.

Overall, not a great week for the team and nothing to do but take one on the chin here. Off to Vegas for the Shriners!

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2023 Shriners Children’s Open Field

We’re still in Fall Series territory for the rest of 2023, for the most part, so it’s the players ranked in the lower reaches of the FedEx Cup standings that once again dominate the field.

But there’s some notable additions, too. Tom Kim will look to defend the title he won here at TPC Summerlin 12 months ago – the young Korean teeing it up on U.S. soil for the first time since the TOUR Championship.

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He will be joined in the field by countryman Si-Woo Kim, while there will be plenty of interest on such a driver-heavy layout in Ludvig Aberg as well.

The likes of Eric Cole and Nicolai Hojgaard will be contemplating the possibility of a maiden PGA TOUR title, while Cam Davis, J.T. Poston, Emiliano Grillo and Adam Schenk are also amongst this eclectic field.

Keep an eye out for Lexi Thompson, too. She will become just the seventh woman to tee it up in a PGA TOUR event.

This Week’s Course Preview

In the past five years of the Shriners Childrens Open, a score of -20 would not have been good enough to claim the title – that explains TPC Summerlin as a host course better than anything else.

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This is a wide-open birdie fest, and one which relies upon the Nevada wind to blow in order for the players to feel any discomfort whatsoever. 

Sitting at 7,233 yards for its Par 71 (three Par 5s this week), TPC Summerlin is of average length – but when you factor in the altitude of 2,000ft above sea level, we know that the ball flies a hell of a lot further; as a guide, Trevor Werbylo averaged 334 yards off the tee here 12 months ago.

That’s not to say that the bombers can bully their way to victory, because the decent-sized fairways and large greens offer opportunities for everyone. There’s 92 bunkers to navigate around too, although with few trees and water in play on just four holes, hazards are at a minimum. 

The Bentgrass greens run pretty slowly, which will please some in the field, so all in all overcoming the desert heat/wind and effective club management at altitude will be key this week. 

Even though TPC Summerlin is easy to take apart, it still offers an entertaining conclusion with drivable Par 4s (the 15th) and the Par 5 sixteenth which can be reached in two shots by most. They were amongst the easiest holes last year, alongside the Par 5s at nine and thirteen. 

There’s not a great deal of danger on the real estate, but the players will have to mind their work on the challenging third (492-yard Par 4) and eighth, which plays as a lengthy 239-yard Par 3.

Weather Forecast for Las Vegas, NV

With warm temperatures and a largely wind-free forecast in the offing, the players should enjoy their week in Summerlin.

Thursday is the only possible red flag in the predictions; a top temperature of 73 degrees masks the rather chillier 57 degrees for the early wave of starters, while the wind speed of 12mph will add a complexity to proceedings.

But from there it’s all systems go for a glorious few days of weather. Temperatures will range from 75 to 82 degrees from Friday through to Sunday, while the breeze is expected to drop to around 6mph.

LAS VEGAS WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Shriners Children’s Open

If you cast your mind back to the summer of 2022, Tom Kim was the young phenom of world golf after performing admirably in his invitations to the PGA TOUR.

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He would go on to win the Wyndham Championship in August, before doubling up with another sublime show at the Shriners later on in October.

Kim was there or thereabouts on the leaderboard after opening up 65-67, but it was his outstanding Saturday 62 – bogey free, with nine birdies – that would break the back of his title charge.

The young gun betrayed no signs of nerves on Sunday either as he again made no bogeys, with three birdies on the front nine effectively sweeping him to the trophy.

Patrick Cantlay, who almost joined the PGA TOUR’s 59 club on the Saturday, will not forget the 2022 Shriners in a hurry – his triple-bogey at the last hole ruling him out of a potential playoff against Kim. He tied with Matt NeSmith in T2, three shots behind the Korean.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Shriners Children’s Open this Week

After a tough week at the Sanderson Farms, it’s less about luck this week and more about maximizing our insight into a course that has delivered a particular profile of winners down the years.

• PGA $300k Sand Trap: Because we have a good instinct for what type of player to draft this week, we can loosen up the purse strings a little – this $25 entry contest brings with it plenty of rewards; not least the $100k top prize.

• PGA $5k Albatross: Another way to leverage your edge on the field is single-entry contests, which include this $12 entry game that, at the very least, may cover our stake into the Sand Trap game.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

When we look for a character profile of players that thrive at TPC Summerlin, it’s evident that driving the ball well is of paramount importance.

In recent years, we’ve had both beats off the tee – Bryson, Brooks, Matt Wolff – either winning or finishing second in this event, while more accurate types have also have their day; Tom Kim, Cantlay and the likes of Kevin Na and Austin Cook have also gone close to victory here, while Ryan Moore and Webb Simpson are amongst those who share the 72-hole scoring record.

So, unlike the Sanderson Farms, we have a platform upon which to build our rosters, while with last year’s leaderboard fleshed out with quality iron players and scramblers, we have more ammunition to work with.

As for correlating courses, the Phoenix Open is one that springs to mind – it’s played in the desert, after all, and there definitely seems to be a link to the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield too; Simpson, Moore, Na, Sungjae Im and Tom Kim are just some of those that have fared very nicely at both venues.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Shriners Children’s Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Shriners Children’s Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

J.T. Poston (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 61.0, Salary: $10,000)

Having ended the regular 2022-23 season like a train, it’s a surprise that it’s taken this long for J.T. Poston to surface during the Fall Series.

Top-10s at the John Deere Classic, Scottish Open and Wyndham Championship were backed by a second-place turn at the 3M Open, while lower finishes thereafter at the St Jude and BMW Championship were still powered by elite approach play.

A previous T4 at TPC Summerlin, and T20 here last year, identifies Poston as one to watch at this layout, while a prior victory at the correlating Wyndham Championship only serves to boost such bullishness.

Key Stats:

• Fairway Proximity – 34th
• Scoring Average – 35th
• Greens in Regulation – 41st

Top Tier Pick #2

Si-Woo Kim (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 65.5, Salary: $9,900)

When thinking of players to back in this event, Si-Woo Kim was one of the first to spring to mind – pleasingly, he has a pair of top-10s in his last two trips to TPC Summerlin as confirmation.

As with his compatriot and defending champion Tom Kim, Si-Woo’s game is built around accurate driving and classy approach play – two tools which have both yielded dividends for many past winners of this event.

A former winner and runner-up at the correlating Wyndham Championship, Si-Woo has also prevailed in other events like the Sony Open and Players Championship, where keeping your ball on a tight string is vital. 

Although he’s not played competitively since the TOUR Championship, this is still an event we like Si-Woo Kim for.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 21st
• Total Birdies – 29th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

J.J. Spaun (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 61.2, Salary: $8,900)

An accurate driver and quality approach player, J.J. Spaun is the ideal candidate for success at TPC Summerlin – that explains why he’s gone T10 and T15 (twice) here since 2017.

He needs to putt better in order to take the next step in his career – even Spaun himself will know that, so beating the field with the flat stick last time out at the Fortinet Championship on his way to a T11 finish is a handy statement of intent.

That continued a decent run of form for Spaun – just one cut missed since May, and a previous T4 finish at the correlating Phoenix Open only adds to the optimism.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 3rd
• Proximity to Hole – 23rd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 33rd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Akshay Bhatia (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 67.9, Salary: $7,400)

For a player that has made his name on the PGA TOUR this year from quality ball-striking, $7,400 for Akshay Bhatia seems like something of a gift.

Yes, he missed the cut at the Wyndham and Fortinet Championship, but Bhatia bounced back to some extent with T43 at the Sanderson Farms, where he gained more than +1.00 strokes on the field off the tee.

In a year of outstanding growth as a golfer, Bhatia’s brilliant tee-to-green game will enjoy its full rewards at TPC Summerlin, where we expect him to outperform this lowly price tag.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 14th
• SG: Approach – 24th
• Birdie Average – 24th

Low-Tier Pick

Cameron Champ (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 41.7, Salary: $7,200)

Although it’s a slightly harsh assessment, Cameron Champ is a golfing one-trick pony; thriving when there’s enough room for him to unleash his bombs off the tee.

He’ll have that opportunity at TPC Summerlin, following in the footsteps of similar players of his type to have success in Nevada, and he heads to the desert on the back of a positive showing in the Sanderson Farms.

Champ was on the first page of the leaderboard for most of the tournament, stalling slightly on Sunday but still finishing T9. Crucially, he gained nearly +2.00 strokes on the field with his ball striking – he’ll be looking forward to uncorking some huge drives at the altitude-powered TPC Summerlin.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 10th
• Approaches from 200+ yards – 38th
• Greens in Regulation – 40th

Sleeper Pick for the Shriners Children’s Open

Nick Taylor (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 59.8, Salary: $7,100)

Having made it all the way to the TOUR Championship at the end of the regular season, Nick Taylor now finds himself to be the forgotten man at $7,100.

His run to the end of the FedEx Cup campaign was powered by his win at the Canadian Open, but Taylor accomplished far more than just that – how about solo second at the correlating Phoenix Open for starters, plus T10 and T19 in classy renewals of the Valspar Championship and Scottish Open?

Taylor will no doubt have lofty goals for his year ahead, but even with lower expectations we note that he’s made seven cuts at TPC Summerlin in nine trips, which for a sleeper pick is excellent consistency.

Key Stats:

• Putts Per Round – 20th
• Birdie Average – 30th
• SG: Approach – 37th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Shriners Children’s Open

Troy Merritt (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 43.4, Salary: $7,000)

After speaking so publicly about his battle with the yips, it’s good to see Troy Merritt’s game moving in the right direction.

In fact, he’s been playing sneaky good golf for a while now, with top-20s at the Scottish Open and John Deere Classic followed by T7 at the Fortinet Championship.

Merritt has seemingly solved his putting woes too, gaining +1.69 on the field at the Sanderson Farms with the flat stick on his way to T9 finish.

$7,000 for a player with back-to-back top-10 finishes? Don’t mind if we do….

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 32nd
• Driving Accuracy – 34th
• Scrambling – 70th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season (2023-2024)

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