Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 Sony Open in Hawaii

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 Sony Open in Hawaii  

Sony Open in Hawaii Fantasy Preview

Oh, Collin.

For the second time in a year, Collin Morikawa has fluffed a seemingly unassailable lead to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, this time at the Tournament of Champions.

After the first hole of Sunday’s final round, Morikawa was nine shots clear of eventual champion Jon Rahm, and after a string of birdies he hit in-running odds of 1/200 (-20000) with a number of sportsbooks.

But the birdies dried up around the turn, and confirmation of Morikawa’s wobbles were confirmed when he made an eye-watering three straight bogeys on the back nine – the first time he had shot over par all week.

He birdied the last, but by then it was too late – Rahm had played his back nine in -6 at a typically forgiving Plantation Course, and the Spaniard completed his fifth win worldwide since the summer of 2021.

Morikawa, incidentally, hasn’t won anywhere since November 2021. The hunt goes on.

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Surprisingly, he has opted not to get back straight in the saddle at the second of the two Hawaiian Swing events, the Sony Open, this week, although plenty that contested the Tournament of Champions will be looking to take advantage of their edge on Honolulu. 

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Boom! Right out of the gate in the new year our Horse Pick John Rahm overcame a 9-shot deficit to go 10-under in the final round of the Sentry to win. 

Now that’s what we’re talking about!

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Sony Open in Hawaii Field

Plenty have made the short trip from Maui to Honolulu to play in both legs of the Hawaiian Swing before, and this is typically a shortcut to success on the islands. Many will be making the same the well-trodden journey.

By our math, 18 of the 39-strong Tournament of Champions field will tee it up at the Sony Open, with the Sony Open field headed by unlikely best buddies Jordan Spieth and Tom Kim, defending champion Hideki Matsuyama and world number 19 Sungjae Im. 

The likes of former Sony Open winner Russell Henley, Brian Harman, Keegan Bradley and Adam Scott are also in the hunt for early-year honors, alongside Corey Conners, Tom Hoge, Kyoung-hoon Lee and Mackenzie Hughes.

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Of those making their 2023 bows, Kurt Kitayama, Harris English and Waialae specialist Keith Mitchell catch the eye, while former world number one amateurs Taiga Semikawa and Keita Nakajima make the trip from Japan.

This Week’s Course Preview

After the birdie-fest at Kapalua last week, it’s off to a slightly-more challenging test courtesy of the Seth Raynor designed Waialae Country Club.

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This track features much tighter, albeit TOUR average, width fairways plus some thick tree-lines, so finding the right spots off the tee is vital. The large Bermuda greens, whilst sizable, are well protected by bunkers. Their grainy nature means those that thrives last week might find more joy this time around too.

Water is only in-play on three holes, so little to worry about in this regard, and the ease of the test will still largely be determined by the wind, which can be fierce in this neck of the woods.

The winning score generally reaches around the -20 mark at Waialae, and with only two Par 5s it goes without saying that breaking par on the Par 4s is crucial – nine of the twelve averaged under par 12 months ago.

Both of the nines conclude with an easy Par 5, and the stretch of seventh, nine and ten – three of the easiest holes on the course – will go a long way to determining the winner.

Weather Forecast for Maui, HI

It’s a warm and fairly settled week on Honolulu, setting the players up nicely for some birdie-making in the sun.

There’s next to no chance of rain, according to the forecasts (don’t blame us if that proves to be wrong), with sunny spells and temperatures of around 79˚F across all four days.

Crucially, the predictions for wind speed are somewhat benign too, with expectations of between 5-11mph – Thursday and Sunday may be the breeziest if the early forecast holds.

HONOLULU WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Sony Open in Hawaii

Once again, it was a player that had contested the Tournament of Champions the week before that would prevail at the 2022 Sony Open.

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Hideki Matsuyama hadn’t really challenged the top of the leaderboard at Kapalua, but he got a feel for the conditions and the run of the green, and used that to excellent effect at Waialae.

The Japanese star got progressively better throughout the week from 66-65-63, and by Sunday he was notching another birdie-free round of -7.

Russell Henley had started the week like a train (62-63), slowed on Saturday and hung in there on Sunday, just clinging on with a back nine of +1 – but missing a ten-footer at the last to win outright – to book his spot in a playoff against Matsuyama.

You may remember the playoff on account of the amazing 276-yard 3-wood Matsuyama blitzed to set up eagle on the final hole – that video went viral, and was the catalyst for Hideki’s eighth PGA TOUR win.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Sony Open in Hawaii this Week

Finally, we have a chance to get stuck into some full-field daily fantasy contests, and while it’s a shame there’s the variance of this being a putting shootout to overcome, we can still get started in 2023 with these intriguing games.

• PGA $600k Pitch & Putt: One of the big daddy contests this week is this $20 entry game, which pays out a whopping $200k top prize. Pick six streaky putters and see if you can win the golf lottery!

• PGA $30k Full Range Special: You might want to draft a few lineups this week, given that the pool of ‘pickable’ players is probably around a dozen or more. With 18 team multi-entry at $10 a turn, this contest offers plenty of scope and a $5k top prize.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Manage the wind and putt well – the same notes taken for the Tournament of Champions apply this week to the Sony Open as well.

Some of the sightlines off the tee at Waialae are tougher, make no mistake, but you can miss the short grass and still do well here – Matsuyama have a driving accuracy percentage of 71%, ranking 13th, while Michael Thompson in T5 found just 55%.

We always want our guys to approach well, and Henley (T1), Thompson (T5) and Lucas Glover (T5) all ranked well for that metric. But Matsuyama and 2020 winner Cameron Smith both ranked first for SG: Putting, while previous champions Kevin Na, Matt Kuchar and Patton Kizzire are no slouches with the flat stick.

As for course correlations, Kapalua has to lead the way – those that played there last week have a definite competitive advantage, with 17/24 winners of the Sony Open having played the TOC the week prior.

Others have spoken of the similarities between Waialae and El Camaleon (both Kuchar and Kizzire have won at both), while the Sea Island course that hosts much of the RSM Classic is another occasionally tight and fiddly affair played out by the sea.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sony Open in Hawaii   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sony Open in Hawaii  

Top Tier Pick #1

Tom Hoge (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 81.3, GPFP: 81.29 Salary: $9,900)

Sometimes top-tier golfers emerge when they find the missing piece of their personal jigsaw.

For Tom Hoge, a player that ranked outside the top-100 on the PGA TOUR for years in SG: Putting, has found something with the flat stick and is motoring on as a result.

He has gained strokes on the field while putting in six of his last seven recorded outings,  and that’s a run that has yielded four top-10 finishes, a T12 and a T13.

Nobody hit their irons better than Hoge at Kapalua, and the fact he ranked first in the field for SG: Putting on Sunday in the TOC gives this excellent ball-striker plenty of reasons to be cheerful ahead of an event he should fare well in.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 1st
• Birdie Average – 15th
• SG: Putting – 33rd

Top Tier Pick #2

Russell Henley (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 67.8, GPFP: 82.04 Salary: $9,800)

Our collective finger hovered over Tom Kim and Brian Harman here, but we couldn’t quite pull the trigger on either.

Kim looks like the kind of young guy who could win anywhere, any time, but he’s still learning his craft – and us about him – and so handing top-tier salary status to a Waialae debutant seems somewhat risky.

As for Harman, the improvement in his tee-to-green game in recent months has been stark, but his putter was ice cold last week and that would require an almighty turnaround for him to win this week.

And so we’ve opted for a guy with plenty of quality performances to his name at Waialae in Russell Henley. The 2013 champion lost in a playoff here 12 months ago, and has served up three other top-20 finishes at the layout.

A player that hasn’t won enough based on his ability, Henley prevailed at Mayakoba in November to put an end to his long wait for a trophy.

He hasn’t been putting great lately, and that is a concern, but with so many good memories at this real estate we have to expect Henley to improve in that regard at a very happy hunting ground.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 1st
• Greens in Regulation – 24th
• Approaches from 125-150 yards – 34th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Harris English (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 72.1, GPFP: 57.71 Salary: $7,800)

Although far from an extravagant pick, Harris English has made the cut in nine out of ten trips to Waialae, with three top-10s to his name. That is handy form for DFS gamers.

After six months out recovering from surgery last year, English’s game was shot. But he started to get a handle on his ball striking late on in 2022, and while his numbers were not extraordinary it was a marker of hopefully better things to come.

A winner at Kapalua and Mayakoba, these are conditions English loves – he’ll be relishing the chance to get back to form in 2023. 

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 150-175 yards – 41st
• SG: Putting – 43rd
• Scoring Average – 52nd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Mackenzie Hughes (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 78.4, GPFP: 62.69 Salary: $7,500)

An improvement in his approach play swept Mackenzie Hughes to the Sanderson Farms Championship, and that uptick largely followed him to Kapalua, where the Canadian was solid from tee-to-green.

Ironically, it was his putting – usually a strength – that let him down, but note that Hughes ranked eighth in a high quality field for SG: Putting in round four at the TOC.

Better late than never, that improvement on these stodgy Bermuda greens in Hawaii bodes very nicely for a former RSM Classic champion, and as we know those who played at the Plantation Course a week prior to the Sony Open do have something of an edge on those that didn’t.

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 11th
• SG: Putting – 15th
• Birdie Average – 39th

Low-Tier Pick

Russell Knox (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 70.0, GPFP: 87.50 Salary: $7,200)

Although Russell Knox didn’t do a great deal on his return to Scotland when finishing T42 at the Scottish Open, on his return to America business picked up dramatically for him on the greens.

In eight ShotLink events since, Knox has gained strokes on the field when putting – normally his Achilles heel – and in two others only marginally lost to the field, so the Scot is trending in the right direction.

He has a fine record at Mayakoba, one of our correlating events, and his accurate driving hand him an edge at such tight, tree-lined layouts.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 4th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 53rd
• SG: Putting – 56th

Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open in Hawaii

Greyson Sigg (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 87.1, GPFP: 69.66 Salary: $7,300)

Conditions in Hawaii should prove to be ideal for Greyson Sigg.

A short, nuggety player in the same vein as previous Sony Open champions like Na and Kuchar, Sigg seems to enjoy being by the seaside – some of his best work has come at Mayakoba and over in Bermuda.

He’s proven himself to be a relative birdie machine during the early weeks of the 2022-23 season, and unsurprisingly for a shorter hitter he particularly thrives on the Par 4s. 

A two-time Korn Ferry Tour champion, can Sigg step up to the big time in Honolulu?

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 14th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 29th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 58th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sony Open in Hawaii

David Lingmerth (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 56.0, GPFP: 66.13 Salary: $6,700)

If you are drafting multiple lineups this week, you might not want to over-expose yourself to David Lingmerth ownership.

That said, it’s pretty difficult to overlook a guy who has finished T8, T10 and T11 at Mayakoba, the RSM Classic and Bermuda Championship in recent months – all events of some relevance to the Sony Open.

There’s scope for wily veterans to thrive at Waialae, and if Lingmerth parlays his late 2022 form into 2023, he could prove to be a useful sleeper pick indeed.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 12th
• Driving Accuracy – 26th
• SG: Putting – 55th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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