Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2023 US Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 US Open  

US Open Fantasy Preview

A stunning victory for Nick Taylor at the Canadian Open on Sunday ended a 70-year wait for a home win.

The celebrations of Taylor, his caddie and the rest of the home contingent in the field at the end of the playoff with Tommy Fleetwood were evidence of how desperate they were for a domestic champion on their own soil – especially one as likable and unassuming as Taylor.

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The fact that he did with closing rounds of 63 and 66, plus an eagle on the fourth playoff hole, confirms that this was one of those all-time moments – a player swept away in the moment and desperate to deliver for his many fans watching on at greenside and on TV.

But there truly is no rest for the wicked, and within a couple of hours Taylor and others from the Canadian contingent were on the charter jet to California.

Hopefully their hangovers have worn off by the time that the U.S. Open rolls around in Los Angeles on Thursday….

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Our top dog last week in Canada was Tyrell Hatton and the Englishman did not disappoint with his T3 finish.   

Along with Aaron Rai (our Sleeper Report pick) – the two turned in impressive T3 victories.  

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2023 US Open Field

If you can identify them as one of the best golfers on the planet, they are likely to be in the field for the U.S. Open.

Whether we identify them as PGA TOUR and LIV Golf players now or just ‘golfers’ we’ll have to wait and see, but leading the way for the former will be Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy, who also head the betting market.

The LIV contingent will be headed by Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith, while Phil Mickelson could complete the career grand slam with victory in his home state.

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Defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick would love to be the first non-American to successfully retain their U.S. Open title since Willie Anderson in 1905, while the likes of Cantlay, Day, Finau, Homa, Hovland, Morikawa and Schauffele – to name a few – are just some of those with big chances in Los Angeles.

At the other end of the playing scale, there’s a stack of amateurs and qualifiers who will enjoy a couple of days under the LA sun, while world number 906 Patrick Cover gets a chance to strut his stuff on the big stage.

This Week’s Course Preview

It’s been a whopping 83 years since Los Angeles Country Club last hosted a PGA TOUR level event, let alone a major.

Plenty has changed in that time, of course, although the unique character of the track remains – these are 18 holes that deliver elevation changes, sloping fairways and greens, deep native areas and surfaces that are so firm and fast, baked as they are by the LA sun, they almost have a yellowish tint to them in some areas.

Unusually for a Californian golf course, there’s not a scrap of Poa Annua in sight – the greens were switched to pure Bentgrass in the 2010s, while the fairways are Bermuda.

All told, Los Angeles CC will play to around 7,250 yards for its Par 71, with just a trio of Par 5s for the players to work with. There’s some funky hole-by-hole yardages, too:

Hole 1 is a 590-yard Par 5. Comfortable enough fairway to find, although it does start to narrow at about 300 yards from the tee box. Given it’s the first hole, most will surely lay-up with their second shot. The upturned saucer green is protected by a large bunker left and with steep run-offs front, back and to the right.

Hole 2 is a 497-yard Par 4, with a fairway that slopes from right-to-left. There’s a ‘barranca’- a sort of gully, to you and I – protecting the front of a relatively flat green, by Los Angeles CC’s standards at least.

Hole 3 is a short Par 4 at 419 yards, but don’t let that fool you. The tee shot is horrible – hitting blind uphill to a thin sliver of fairway protected by another barranca, while the green slopes from back-to-front with three deep bunkers waiting to gobble up shots that don’t have the legs.

Hole 4 is a long Par 3 at 228 yards, although it does play significantly downhill. A small green is protected by sand and other waste areas, so hitting the right yardage here will be key.

Hole 5 is a 480-yard Par 4, and while it boasts a generous fairway the players will still need to be precise to find the left-hand side of it. The kidney-shaped green is large enough, although pin positions in the bottom right corner would be dastardly.

Hole 6 is a drivable Par 4 measuring just 330 yards. That’s not to say driving it would be the best move – the tee shot will need to clear trees and land on one of the smallest greens on the property, which is elevated to boot. Will be fascinating to see how the pros play it.

Hole 7 is a Par 3 measuring 284 – yes, you read that correctly – 284 yards. There’s different tee boxes, so it could play shorter, while a downhill fairway landing zone will feed balls onto the green. Still, some of the shorter hitters will be dreading this hole.

Hole 8 is a 537-yard Par 5. It will be reachable for most players on the back of a good drive, although the approach shot will be hit semi-blindly and probably require a right-to-left shape. Even shorter hitters can lay up and leave an easy wedge in, so this is a hole where birdie must be made.

Hole 9 is a 171-yard Par 3, and the players will have to thread the eye of a needle to find a small, elevated green protected on all sides by deep bunkers. This slopes markedly from back to front too.

Hole 10 is a 409-yard Par 4 with a unique fairway; the players will want to hit to the right portion to take advantage of the slope, but that’s where a huge bunker lurks. Another back-to-front sloping green will leave many players with a long-range putt up the hill.

Hole 11 is a mammoth 290-yard Par 3, although with multiple tee boxes this can also be shortened if necessary by officials. It also plays downhill, but even so it’s going to take a hefty approach with a tough up-and-down for those who miss left, right or long.

Hole 12 is a 380-yard Par 4 with a landing zone below the players’ feet. They might just let rip with the big stick, as the fairway is particularly narrow at around the 300-yard mark. There’s bunkers at the front of the green for those who duff their wedge from – most probably – the rough.

Hole 13 is a long Par 4 at 507 yards that features a left-to-right sloping fairway and another small, upturned saucer style green. This hole could create carnage with a pin on the right-had side of the green.

Hole 14 is a 603-yard Par 5, so two thunderous hits will be required for anyone even attempting to reach the green in two. To make matters worse, drives of 300+ yards will have to carry a bunker that jags into the fairway. A second shot, with the LA skyline framing the back of the green, will most probably be a lay-up given that the entire right-side of the hole is out of bounds. The green itself runs horizontal to the fairway, so players will be aiming left or right of the flag rather than above or below the hole.

Hole 15 is a 124-yard Par 3, which in theory should play as the easiest short hole on the real estate. The green is long and thin, almost like a teardrop in shape, and there’s likely to be few dry eyes in the house if the players land in one of the deep bunkers protecting it.

Hole 16 is a whopping 542-yard Par 4, with a downhill-sloping fairway protected by an intrusive bunker that sits around 320 yards away. Missing the landing zone left or right is a no-no – there’s little chance of making the green in two if you do. Don’t be surprised if some even lay up with their second shot.

Hole 17 is a 520-yard Par 4, and this is a fear-inducing drive with that pesky barranca and tall trees on the right side of the fairway. Bailing out left will require an approach shot hit over big bunkers, while the green rises up in the center before sloping left and right.

Hole 18 is a ‘fun’ way to finish – a 492-yard Par 4 that plays uphill. The approach shot shouldn’t be too challenging, although the green again slopes considerably from back to front – a back pin position would prove a demanding way to close out the U.S. Open.

Weather Forecast for Los Angeles, CA

The weather looks set to get sunnier and hotter throughout the four days of the U.S. Open.

Thursday is likely to be the cloudiest of the four days, with temperatures of around 69 degrees and wind speeds of approximately 7mph.

Business starts to pick up on Friday, with wall-to-wall sunshine (as per the early predictions) and top temperatures of 75 degrees. The wind is again single digits of MPH.

What a weekend for sun worshippers in Los Angeles. Both Saturday and Sunday are shaping up to be glorious, with the mercury hitting 80 degrees. The wind is again pegged at around 7mph, so at least that is one less thing for the players to worry about at the already difficult Los Angeles CC.

LOS ANGELES WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the US Open

Matt Fitzpatrick arguably could not have chosen a better site for his maiden win on American soil as a professional.

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There or thereabouts throughout the week, the Brit hit the afterburners on the Sunday at The Country Club with an outstanding display of ball-striking – he hit 17 out of 18 greens in regulation, which is some feat anywhere but especially so at a U.S. Open layout.

Fitzpatrick landed some mighty putts along the way as well, leaving another player seeking his maiden major – Will Zalatoris – in his wake at the top of the leaderboard.

The pair were locked at the top of the standings after 54 holes, with the likes of Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy within touching distance.

But Fitzpatrick was not to be denied – his ascent into golfing mega-stardom was complete.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the US Open this Week

It could be a tough old week under the baking Los Angeles sun, and so drafting a handful of rosters is perhaps the percentage play to have a chance of cashing come Sunday. 

• GOLF $600k Drive the Green:  At $5 per entry, players can string together a couple of different lineups to enter into this contest, which boasts a $100k top prize and many other very agreeable payouts to boot.

• PGA $150k Birdie: For those running a tighter budget, it costs $3 to enter this contest each time, but with $15k to the winner and many other consolation prizes you can see the value in rostering a few different variations.

New customers can use our code GOLFICITY when you sign up for DraftKings this week for an exclusive odds boost!

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Although we don’t have any stats to work with from Los Angeles CC in recent years, one look at the course tells you pretty much everything you need to know.

These are famous last words, but we’re not convinced length off the tee will be a pre-requisite this week. The fairways are going to have plenty of ball run to them given how firm they are, while many of the fairways have obstacles to them at the 300-yard mark and beyond – designed to catch out the longest hitters.

Some of the greatest defenses of the course will surely come on and around the greens. Some of the dancefloors are going to be very difficult to hold, and so there’s going to have to be short game mastery in order to prevail. Not only that, Bentgrass greens tend to be the purest of them all, and the ones at Los Angeles CC are likely to run super-fast no matter how much water officials are able to get onto the course.

Majors are designed to test all facets of a player’s game, but at Los Angeles Country Club it looks as though keeping bogeys and worse off your card with a solid rescue game is as likely a strategy as any to deliver our next U.S. Open champion.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the US Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the US Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Scottie Scheffler (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 98.6, Salary: $11,400)

It goes without saying that the best players in the world have a major advantage when playing at the toughest courses.

So cometh the hour, cometh the Scheffler. It’s impossible to argue that Scottie isn’t the finest player in the world at the moment, and while his putting stroke is just about good enough to get him by, his tee-to-green game – bold statement incoming – is as good as anybody’s that has ever picked up a club.

As if proof were needed, he ranks first on TOUR this season for strokes gained off the tee and on approach, scoring average and bogey avoidance, seventh around-the-green and ninth for scrambling – his game, bar from his putting, is almost bullet-proof.

Top five finishes in each of his last four games confirms that Scheffler’s game is as good now as it has been all season long. Ominous indeed for the rest of the field – is anybody as likely to tame Los Angeles CC as Scheffler?

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 1st
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 1st
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 1st

Top Tier Pick #2

Tyrrell Hatton (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 80.1, Salary: $8,900)

At $8,900 and 40/1 with the sportsbooks, it’s hard to shake the feeling that the golf world is greatly underestimating the chances of Tyrrell Hatton this week.

The Brit is playing as well as anyone outside the elite right now, finishing no lower than T19 in any of his last five starts, with T15 at the PGA Championship – even after an opening round of 77 – proof that he can grind it out in tough conditions.

Ranking seventh on TOUR for SG: Tee-to-Green and 11th for SG: Putting, it’s hard to pick holes in Hatton’s game – even his once questionable ability to handle it when things aren’t going well seems to be a distant memory.

Key Stats:

• Scoring Average – 4th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 11th
• SG: Approach – 18th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Jason Day (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 71.4, Salary: $8,100)

As we’ve alluded to already, it’s very likely that having a reliable scrambling and chipping game, in order to keep too many bogeys off the card, will be vital this week.

That’s why Jason Day appeals, because the Australian is adept at grinding out a score in even the toughest of conditions.

He’s already a major winner of course as a former PGA Championship victor, and at the Byron Nelson in May he served a reminder that his game is as strong as it’s ever been.

Seven of his 18 PGA TOUR starts this season have yielded top-10 finishes, and in ranking 13th for SG: Tee-to-Green and 15th for SG: Putting, Day’s consistency comes as no surprise. 

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 1st
• Bogey Avoidance – 2nd
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 13th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Si-Woo Kim (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 69.7, Salary: $7,300)

It’s been a strange sort of season for Si-Woo Kim, who has played consistently well but got only three strokeplay top-10 finishes to show for it.

Mind you, two of those have come within his last four outings, so evidently the Korean’s game is trending in the right direction.

The going got tough at the Memorial Tournament, where he finished solo fourth, and that is typical of Si-Woo’s game: he ranks higher for Scoring Average than Birdie Average this term.

A solid tee-to-green merchant who also scrambles well, Si-Woo has banked top-30 finishes at The Masters and the PLAYERS this season – the harder the better, as far as he’s concerned. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 14th
• Scoring Average – 18th
• Scrambling – 24th

Low-Tier Pick

Denny McCarthy (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 67.0, Salary: $7,200)

Anyone that has followed the PGA TOUR closely for a long time knows just how good a putter Denny McCarthy is.

But he’s far from a one trick pony, as he showed in gutsing out a playoff at the Memorial Tournament, where he was downed by Viktor Hovland.

McCarthy also bagged a top-10 at Quail Hollow in May, which with its undulations and raised greens bears something of a resemblance to Los Angeles CC. 

An excellent scrambler with a solid chipping stroke, McCarthy can match his Wells Fargo top-10 with a similar effort in LA.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 4th
• Scrambling – 10th
• Scoring Average – 16th

Sleeper Pick for the US Open

Eric Cole (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 58.2, Salary: $7,000)

What a breakthrough season it’s been for Eric Cole, who has shown he has a solid game ever since losing in a playoff at the Honda Classic in February.

T5 at the Mexico Open and T15 at the PGA Championship – in conditions that couldn’t be any different – showcase a versatility to his game, although statistically Cole is at his best at venues where there’s room off the tee.

He’ll need to scramble well at Los Angeles CC then, although that – and a deft hand around and on the greens – is the genesis of his play, so he’ll perhaps feel more comfortable than some when offline this week. 

Key Stats:

• Scrambling – 17th
• Bogey Avoidance – 22nd
• SG: Around-the-Green – 25th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the US Open

Andrew Putnam (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 61.9, Salary: $6,800)

Those that keep Strokes Gained trackers will be aware of how well Andrew Putnam is striking the ball right now, and his no-frills game should be well suited to Los Angeles CC.

That has yielded some solid results but none better than the T5 last time out at the Memorial Tournament, where Putnam showed that conservative golf – like the kind required in LA this week – has its virtues.

T31 at last year’s U.S. Open, Putnam could be open to similar or more improvement if he maintains his baseline of late, which brings plenty of GIR and reliable hand with the putter.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 8th
• Scrambling – 8th
• Greens in Regulation – 33rd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions This Season (2023-2023)

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