Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Genesis Scottish Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the Genesis Scottish Open  

Genesis Scottish Open Fantasy Preview

You spend all this time analyzing and trying to predict how a golf tournament will play out, and in the end it turns out that booking the right Airbnb property is all that it takes to win the Genesis Scottish Open.

Both J.T. Poston and Sepp Straka had booked the same rental close to TPC Deere Run and ended up lifting the Genesis Scottish Open trophy, so faces were left unstunned when Davis Thompson – the third player to stay in the property – also went on to triumph on Sunday.

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Incredibly, more than half of the winners of this event in the past 50 years were landing their maiden PGA TOUR title, and Thompson – who came close at the Rocket Mortgage Classic the week before – would also join their ranks in a tied-tournament record score of -28.

He asserted his authority of Saturday to open a 54-hole lead, and showed no signs of weakness in closing out when birdieing six of his opening nine holes on Sunday. The change to a new set of Titleist irons has worked a treat for Thompson, bringing him a first PGA TOUR win at a venue where the likes of Jordan Spieth, Bryson DeChambeau, and Brian Harman all won their maiden title too. Whatever happened to those guys?

All of which bodes well for Thompson, who has played his way into the British Open at Royal Troon next week. But first, we all get a Links golf curtain-raiser to enjoy at the Scottish Open.

Last Week’s Results

Last week we had 3-Top 7 horses with Rai, Cole, and Novak with ALL of them shooting all four rounds sub-70 which of course is where the extra points come from. 

Hats off to Davis Thompson for earning his first PGA TOUR win.

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Genesis Scottish Open Field

Playing in the Scottish Open has been a useful precursor for success at the British Open in recent years, and so you can understand why plenty of big names have decided to up sticks to Berwick a week in advance of the year’s final major. Rory McIlroy will tee it up for the first time since his brain soup moment at the U.S. Open, missing a couple of three-footers for a long-awaited major title. Expect the Irishman to come back strong here.

Collin Morikawa is a former British Open champion, while Xander Schauffele won this event in 2022, so that’s a duo that will attract plenty of interest this week.

Throw into the mix the likes of Ludvic Aberg, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, and Tommy Fleetwood, and this becomes a high-grade PGA TOUR event – albeit one thousands of miles from American soil….

This Week’s Course Preview

Just five players finished double-digits under par at the Renaissance Club in Berwick, Scotland last year, and that reminds us that the scoring at many Links golf courses is ultimately determined by the weather conditions.

The Renaissance Club will play somewhat easier than Royal Troon, you’d expect, and in truth you wouldn’t call it quintessential Links. It’s true that some of the holes play along the coast, but some are more in-land too – and there’s even trees, which is unique in these classic British stretches of real estate.

It plays to a fairly lengthy 7,237 yards for its Par 70, and renovation work ahead of the 2020 edition saw several fairways narrowed – however, the rough is typically easier to play out here than at some Links courses, there the fescue grass is allowed to grow free.

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But with hard to find and hold greens, only eight holes at the Renaissance Club averaged under par 12 months ago – the three Par 5s, unusual for a Par 70 layout, being the easiest on the real estate.

The seventh hole was a Par 5 up until 2022 – it’s now a 505-yard Par 4, which helps to explain its complexity, while a couple of similarly-lengthy Par 4s at 493 yards (second hole) and 483 yards (eighteenth) act as the venues toughest assignments.

Weather Forecast for North Berwick, Scotland

If the players at the Scottish Open were hoping for an authentic Links experience, they might just get one based upon the weather.

It looks set to be a cool, windy, and rainy week in this slice of Scotland, which is not wholly unexpected, with temperatures topping out at a chilly 59 degrees – and even cooler for the early starters.

Rain is in the forecast for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, with Sunday perhaps the only day to offer some respite with dry, sunny spells. Wind speeds of up to 15mph, which are likely to be stronger by the coast, will further add to the challenge.

NORTH BERWICK WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Genesis Scottish Open

It would have brought the house down had Robert MacIntyre won his home Scottish Open last year….sadly for him, he ended up falling just one shot short of victory. Instead, it was Rory McIlroy who would prevail, breaking the back of his winning -15 score with rounds of 64 and 66 across the opening 36 holes.

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The Irishman was one clear of Links specialist Tyrrell Hatton, Tom Kim, and Byeong Hun An at halfway, with future British Open champion Brian Harman lurking two back. Eight players, including Scottie Scheffler and former British Open winner Shane Lowry, were within three shots of Rory heading into the final round, but in tough final round conditions it was McIlroy who hung tough. Despite a flurry of bogeys on the front nine come Sunday, McIlroy was flawless on the back nine – four birdies and no more red numbers ensuring he finished one shot clear of desperate runner-up MacIntyre.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Genesis Scottish Open

It’s fun to play DFS golf on the Links Swing, because there will be some gamers that ignore the inherent differences that these tournaments bring – they will instead likely draft the normal PGA TOUR studs, and that be to their detriment….but to your benefit.

• GOLF TOUR $40k Albatross: One of the ways to maximize that advantage is to try and fund your entire week from this single-entry game, which boasts a $4k top prize, and many other big payouts, for a $12 ticket.
• GOLF TOUR $800k Summer Sand Trap: This seems as good a week as any to enter this flagship contest, with its $800k prize pool and $200k to the winner. It will cost you $25 to play, but there’s numerous opportunities to at least double your money.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Links golf appeals more to some than it does to others, and an excellent starting point when analyzing who to draft and who to swerve this week is to consider form both in the Scottish Open and British Open over the years.

Thankfully, PGA TOUR chiefs packed up their ShotTracer gear and other tech for the Scottish Open last year, so we also know that giving it a decent bump off the tee is particularly useful – of the top 10 on the leaderboard last year, six players averaged well in excess of 300 yards….a useful starting point.

Accurate approach play through the bag was helpful, given how hard the greens were to hold, but particularly key was shots from the 175-200 yard range – that reflects how long many of the Par 4 holes are. Because the GIR count is somewhat lower than the average PGA TOUR event, being able to scramble and get up and down is also vitally important – ingenuity in Links golf around the greens can be so vital in keeping bogeys off the card.

But ultimately, it’s Links specialists that have shown traces of form lately that form the basis of our draft this week.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Genesis Scottish Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Genesis Scottish Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1  

Collin Morikawa (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 76.4, Salary: $10,300)

Other than Scottie Scheffler, there’s an argument to say that Collin Morikawa has been the most consistent player on the PGA TOUR in recent months.

In six starts since the beginning of May, Morikawa has finished no lower than T16 – a run that has encompassed two majors (he was also T3 at The Masters back in April) and a handful of Signature Events.

He is battling the best on his own terms, and his approach play is reaching levels that has already brought him two major wins.

One of those came at the 2022 British Open, of course, which underlies Morikawa’s perfect fairways-and-greens game for the Links. His form right now is so strong it would be no shock if he added a second title to his collection on the U.K. coast.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 11th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 13th
• Scrambling – 24th

Top Tier Pick #2

Tom Kim (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 65.8, Salary: $9,500)

Only a vintage display from Scottie Scheffler deprived Tom Kim of victory at the Travelers Championship in June.

A missed cut at the preceding Rocket Mortgage Classic comes as no surprise given that playoff disappointment, but now after a rest and a chance to regroup, Kim is ready to fire once more.

He certainly showed his Links credentials in 2023. You may recall the British Open, where after suffering an ankle injury in a fall, Kim hopped his way around Royal Liverpool on one leg to finish T2.

That came a week after he finished T6 at the Renaissance Club, and that came a year after he was solo third in the Scottish Open as well. In short, Kim simply loves these conditions.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 25th
• Birdie Average – 28th
• Proximity to Hole – 44th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Min Woo Lee (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 74.5, Salary: $9,200)

Much of what applies to Tom Kim can be said for Min Woo Lee, too.

He narrowly missed out by a single shot at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, continuing a fine run of form that brought three finishes of T26 or better in the year’s trio of majors.

Like Kim, Lee also loves Links golf – his power and variety off the tee and around the greens ensuring he can keep his ball in play, or at least extricate himself from tough situations when they arise.

Min Woo won the 2021 Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club, has a T7 to his name on a Links layout at the Irish Open, and a best of T21 at the British Open – all performances that reveal his comfort in elite company in these conditions.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 6th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 9th
• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 15th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Wyndham Clark (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 74.0, Salary: $8,100)

After a leave of absence from his best form, Wyndham Clark was somewhere back to his finest fettle last time out at the Travelers Championship.

He served up his best approach play numbers there since finishing T2 at the PLAYERS Championship, and it’s the uptick in his wedge and iron play that has propelled Clark to three PGA TOUR wins since May 2023.

A winner on the Links at Pebble Beach, Clark also has a T3 to his name at the Harbour Town Links (RBC Heritage) and his game looks well suited to these coastal tests – long off the tee but able to flight his ball down, he also has a variety and deftness of touch around the greens that will be vital this next fortnight.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 8th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 21st
• Putts Per Round – 34th

Low-Tier Pick

Ryan Fox (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 59.7, Salary: $7,100)

Another former DP World Tour star with an excellent bank of Links form is Ryan Fox.

A winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in Scotland, Fox has also finished runner-up at an exposed Irish Open in 2018 and 2022, and he also has a T16 to his name in the British Open.

The New Zealander is evidently most at home in a breeze, and has the skillset to thrive on super-fast and firm surfaces – with T7 in the Canadian Open to his name as recently as the start of June, there’s recent form in the locker to fall back on too.

Key Stats:

• Fairway Proximity – 20th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 80th
• Total Birdies – 83rd

Sleeper Pick for the Genesis Scottish Open

Matthieu Pavon (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 68.6, Salary: $6,900)

It’s somewhat ironic that Matthieu Pavon’s incredible ascendance in world golf started on Links golf courses in Scotland.

The Frenchman was missing cuts left, right, and center and in danger of losing his DP World Tour card heading into the winter of 2023, before a T6 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship provided some much-needed respite.

Then, Pavon won the Open de Espana, banked a stack of top-10s, and managed to earn his PGA TOUR card, from which he’s not looked back – a win at the Farmers Insurance Open, followed by solo fifth at the U.S. Open and T12 at The Masters – confirms his new-found credentials.

Solo third in the Scottish Open and Pebble Beach previously, Pavon has Links chops and is, nowadays, a major player too.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 22nd
• SG: Approach – 35th
• SG: Putting – 43rd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Genesis Scottish Open

Matthew Southgate (Odds: 350/1, FPPG: 49.4, Salary: $5,600)

If you load up Matthew Southgate’s OWGR profile, you’ll notice that each of the top six best performances of his career have come on the Links in England, Scotland, and Ireland.

That alone wouldn’t be enough to draft him, but allied to some better form last week it’s eye-catching indeed.

The Brit finished T4 at a quality BMW International Open renewal on the DP World Tour at the weekend, and that confidence will surely be deployed with yet more success on the Links in the U.K.

Key Stats:

• N/A

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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