Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – Mexico Open at Vidanta

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta  

Mexico Open at Vidanta Fantasy Preview

It’s not how you start in golf that counts, but how you finish – on goes the enigma that is Hideki Matsuyama. He was absolutely nowhere for the majority of the Genesis Invitational, but then caught light on Sunday – a sublime final round of 62, featuring nine birdies and zero bogeys, enough to catapult the Japanese star to the top of the leaderboard.

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Others had chances – Patrick Cantlay led by five strokes at one point, while Luke List was making everything he looked at on Sunday before falling away. But Matsuyama timed his run to the finish line to perfection, clinching his ninth PGA TOUR title along the way.

It was certainly frustrating for those that had backed him in weeks gone by, based upon his excellent ball-striking – this column included, but a couple of poor shows thereafter felt as if they had knocked the stuffing out of Matsuyama’s game.

But not so, and a valuable lesson in considering medium-term form, rather than the hyper short-term, when drafting/betting on golf was learned once more. The PGA TOUR now takes a one-week sojourn to Mexico, for the appropriately-named Mexico Open at Vidanta.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

With our top pick JT missing the cut, our best finish was our top Sleeper Pick, Jason Day, who ended with a strong 9th place finish. 

In all, 10 of our 12 picks made the cut at Riviera last week.

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2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta Field

With a formline of 1-2 at this Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta track, it comes as no surprise to learn that Tony Finau is the standout operator in the field this week.

He’s the class act, despite his putting woes, and can expect stiff competition from the likes of Nicolai Hojgaard, Keith Mitchell, Emiliano Grillo and co.

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This is a weak field event shorn of its reigning champion, Jon Rahm, with he likes of recent title contenders Thomas Detry and Stephan Jaeger, plus January DP World Tour winner Thorbjorn Olesen, some of the most intriguing names.

All told, just four players from the OWGR top-50 will tee it up in Mexico this week, leaving DFS gamers and bettors quite the puzzle to try and solve.

This Week’s Course Preview

There’s an elephant in the room this week – the Vidanta host course was designed by Greg Norman, who for reasons well known is persona non grata with the PGA TOUR. In his defense, Norman has created an eye-catching slice of golf real estate on Mexico’s west coast, combining lush green landscapes with a sort of Links-style feel.

But the Aussie was in generous mood too, with wide fairways paired with generous rough – resulting in contests that have been very much of the bombs away variety since 2022.

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There are some protections – this is quite a watery layout and there’s more than 100 bunkers, but on the whole the best players in the field will be able to pick their way around with carefree abandon. The greens are on the large size and are Paspalum, which means they can be a bit grainy and bumpy – they certainly won’t run as fast as the PGA TOUR average. It’s pretty long at 7,456 yards for its Par 71, although there are four Par 5s within that routing.

That quartet, along with the bizarrely-short 297-yard, Par 4 seventh, provide ample scoring opportunities. Ten of the eighteen holes averaged under par in 2023, which shows that the players will have to mind their work on the remainder – three of the Par 4s are in the vicinity of 500 yards, while the Par 4 tenth saw more double bogeys or worse than birdies last year.

Weather Forecast for Vallarta, Mexico

In stark contrast to what has gone before on the PGA TOUR in recent weeks, it’s set to be a warm and dry week in Puerto Vallarta. Temperatures of 80 degrees are in play all-week long, and according to the early forecasts there really is little to distinguish any of the four days of action from one another.

Hot sunshine, little chance of rain and wind speeds of around 6mph – it’s perfect weather for sunbathing, and not too bad for a few rounds of golf
either.

VALLARTA WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Mexico Open at Vidanta

The field at last year’s Mexico Open was as weak as it is this time around, so it was no surprise that the two best players in the field asserted their dominance. Finau enjoyed a one-shot lead after 36 holes, while Rahm had plenty of work to do – he found himself six shots adrift of the leader. But it was all change after 54 holes, after a sublime 61 from Rahm on Saturday closed the gap to Finau – who wasn’t shabby himself with 65 – to just two strokes.

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A heavyweight contest was set for the Sunday then, although you could argue that the excitement was all over after five holes – Finau playing them in -2, with Rahm failing to make a single birdie.

The Spaniard rallied thereafter, but Finau was peerless – his usual elite ball-striking matched, for once, by a reliable putting show. He would go onto post a final score of -24, three shots clear of Rahm.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the Mexico Open at Vidanta this Week

After the limited field action last week, it’s back to full strength affair in Mexico this week – albeit a field that is going to take some handicapping. But we can dive in with two of the most appetizing contests this week.

• PGA $200k Drive the Green: It’s the bread-and-butter $5 in contest this week, with more chance(s) to try and win the $25k top prize.
• PGA $500k Pitch & Putt: If your budget is a little larger, try your luck at this $20 contest – there’s plenty of sizable prizes to be won, not least the $100k jackpot.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Hitting your ball a long way, but in a controlled manner, is the order of the day at Vidanta. Our analysis of those that have performed best here in the two editions of the event so far confirm as much: you need to be mashing it 300+ yards off the tee – only one of the top 30 players on the leaderboard failed to do so a year ago, quality on approach in the 200 yard range, and have a knack for making putts on these unique Paspalum greens.

And that really is about it: there’s not a great deal of technical ability required to thrive here – even if Finau and Rahm are the two players to have lifted the trophy. Form on Paspalum layouts – think Puerto Rico Open, Corales Puntacana, WWTC Mexico – will come in handy, as will strong showings on similar-style venues like Kapalua, Pebble Beach and even Torrey Pines, which asks for long-range approaches next to the coast.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Mexico Open at Vidanta   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Mexico Open at Vidanta  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Nicolai Hojgaard (Odds: 18/1, FPPG: 83.7, Salary: $10,700)

These lower-grade events on international soil are a perfect opportunity for a talented young buck to get off the mark on the PGA TOUR, and Nicolai Hojgaard looks primed to do exactly that.  The Dane’s resumé continues to get more and more impressive, from winning the DP World Tour Championship – beating the likes of Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland and Rahm – in November, to a Ryder Cup debut.

Contending at the somewhat-correlating Farmers Insurance Open just a few weeks ago, Hojgaard has taken to life on the PGA TOUR with aplomb –his ball-striking is in fine fettle, and he has a bank of strong form by the coast too.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 35th
• SG: Putting – 42nd
• Scoring Average – 49th

Top Tier Pick #2

Erik van Rooyen (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 85.4, Salary: $9,500)

Erik van Rooyen might end up setting up home in Mexico one day – he loves his golf here. He sat T2 after 36 holes in this event last year before falling away, but returned to Mexico in November to win the World Wide Technology Championship. So that’s the Paspalum box ticked, and Van Rooyen also has the length to feel comfortable at Vidanta – as well as sublime approach play.

His main weakness is his chipping and scrambling, but not to worry as the greens are large here and the wind is expected to be low, presumably leading to a higher GIR count.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 18th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 27th
• Birdie Average – 41st

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Maverick McNealy (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 68.4, Salary: $8,100)

When players with the ability to putt the lights out show some form from tee-to-green, it generally pays to take notice. Of course, Maverick McNealy’s improvement at the Phoenix Open in his ball striking – he bettered a strong field average off the tee and on approach in Arizona, may prove to be a mirage in the long run.

But there’s a feeling that McNealy has more talent than the average putt merchant on the PGA TOUR, and numerous strong showings by the sea at Pebble Beach, the RBC Heritage and the Sony Open, plus a T11 at Mayakoba, suggest this is the right assignment at the right time.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 35th
• Total Driving – 53rd
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 59th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Nate Lashley (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 61.8, Salary: $7,700)

It’s been a curious time for Nate Lashley, who has missed three cuts from his last four starts – the anomaly being an outstanding T3 at the Farmers a few weeks ago, which is one of the best paydays of his golfing career.

It’s noteworthy because Vidanta will suit his neat-and-tidy game, and as a prolific winner from his days on the South American Tour – allied to victory at Puntacana – we know that Lashley is right at home on Paspalum
greens.

Strong turns at Pebble Beach and Sony Open continue the bullishness, so if the Farmers-style Lashley turns up in Mexico this week, he could go very close.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 28th
• SG: Putting – 43rd
• Scoring Average – 54th

Low-Tier Pick

J.J. Spaun (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 59.7, Salary: $7,200)

You may recall a couple of weeks ago when Nick Taylor missed the cut at Pebble Beach despite flushing his irons, before grouping a week later to win the Phoenix Open. We’re not suggesting that J.J. Spaun’s game is anywhere near that of Taylor right now, but there’s a similarity to how well he flushed his irons and wedges at both the Genesis and Phoenix Open despite missing out on the weekend.

A switch to slower, grainier greens may just allow for an improvement with the flat stick, at which point we know that Spaun’s approach game is in a good enough place to create plenty of birdie opportunities.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 200+ Yards – 12th
• Approach Putt Performance – 61st
• SG: Approach – 79th

Sleeper Pick for the Mexico Open at Vidanta

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Mexico Open at Vidanta

Sami Valimaki (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 68.1, Salary: $6,700)

An excellent week of approach play at the Phoenix Open, where he gained +1.44 on the field, was a useful introduction for Sami Valimaki to the PGA TOUR. The Finn, who gained his Tour card by virtue of his efforts on the DP World Tour, has shown a real fondness for golf by the sea and in the breeze –winning in the deserts of Dubai and finishing second in the rather chillier
Links-style surroundings of the Wales Open.

Another with length to spare off the tee and quality through the bag on approach, Valimaki knows how to win – he may just get a chance to prove it this week.

Key Stats:

• Fairway Proximity – 24th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 44th
• SG: Approach – 52nd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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