Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 RSM Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 RSM Classic

The RSM Classic Fantasy Preview

You’d almost have to call in the FBI to investigate how Rafael Campos, with 13 missed cuts in his prior 15 starts, managed to win the Bermuda Championship on Sunday.

But maybe their examination of the facts wouldn’t take that long: Campos had become a father to a baby daughter just days before the tournament started.

There are plenty of people that will tell you that the Nappy Factor is a myth; simply a convenient tool to explain the unexplainable. But after a wretched 2024, in which the Puerto Rican must have thought his PGA TOUR career was coming to an end, how else could you explain his romp to the title in Bermuda?

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While some, Justin Lower included, unleashed expletive-laden reviews of the playing conditions, Campos simply got to work in the howling winds. He made 23 birdies or better, just six bogeys, and finished with a score of -19; proof that you can still score even when the weather is on the robust side.

It was a fully deserved win for Campos, who was understandably emotional afterwards. The tears, perhaps pride at having won or happiness at becoming a dad, were no doubt ones of relief too, with the victory securing his PGA TOUR future for the next two seasons at least.

But who will be celebrating, and who will be commiserating, at the final event of the FedEx Fall this week at the RSM Classic?

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Last week we had 10 out of our 12 picks make the weekend, including both Lipsky and Higgo with their T9 finishes.  

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The RSM Classic Field

Ludvig Aberg will return to defend his RSM Classic title despite not teeing it up anywhere since the TOUR Championship right at the start of September. The Swede has been recuperating from knee surgery.

He will be joined on St. Simon’s Island by former British Open champion Brian Harman, Shriners and World Wide Technology Championship winners respectively in J.T. Poston and Austin Eckroat, Sepp Straka, and Denny McCarthy to name just a few.

Aside from those getting in some competitive golf in a neighborhood many pro players live close to, there’s the very real need for ranking points for those in and around the top 125 of the FedEx Fall standings. 

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Sam Ryder climbed to 122 with his strong showing in Bermuda, but there’s work to be done for Joel Dahmen (124), Wes Bryan (125), Daniel Berger (127), and Pierceson Coody (129) to name just a few.

And maybe somebody will take the Campos route and just lock up their tour card by winning this week?

This Week’s Course Preview

The RSM Classic is played on two courses on a rotational basis. The field, split into two, tackle the Seaside and Plantation Courses on Thursday and Friday, before the action switches exclusively to the Seaside Course over the weekend. 

The Seaside Course is, as the name suggests, exposed to the wind and the Atlantic Ocean. Designed by Tom Fazio, this layout measures just 7,015 yards for its Par 70, and it’s a tight, watery track with ponds and lakes on 13 of its holes.

The Plantation Course is somewhat roomier at 7,060 yards for its Par 72, with more trees making this track feel more parklands in nature. There’s fewer water hazards but more than 80 bunkers, while the Bermuda greens are slightly smaller at Plantation than they are on Seaside.

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What’s interesting is that the weather will ultimately decide which of the two layouts plays easier. If the wind doesn’t blow too hard, the Seaside Course can see lower scores – as it did in the 2023 edition. But if the conditions are tougher, the additional shelter (and extra Par 5 holes) generally makes the Plantation Course the easier of the two.

If the weather is fair, there are stacks of scoring opportunities at the Seaside Course, which perhaps helps to explain why Aberg was able to torch the tournament record on his way to a -29 score last year.

There were more eagles than bogeys recorded at the 565 yard, Par 5 fifteenth, while the 368 yard, Par 4 eighth leaves most of the field with just a flick wedge in to a receptive green.

Only two of the Seaside Course’s holes averaged over par last year: both were Par 3s (third and twelfth) in excess of 200 yards, which are not easy holes when the wind is blowing hard.

The fifth is a fun 409-yard Par 4, where eagles and birdies can be made who connect with a long, straight drive. However, there’s plenty of trouble lurking too, with ten scores of double bogey or worse made here in 2023.

Weather Forecast for Sea Island, GA

Aberg made hay on a super-soft and wet Sea Island 12 months ago, but it’s a rather drier and sunnier outlook this week.

In fact, wall-to-wall sunshine is expected in the early predictions, although temperatures will only reach a mediocre 64 degrees.

The wind is key at layouts like the Seaside Course. On Thursday and Friday, forecasts of 15mph have been made – the gusts will be even fiercer than that, although the suggestion is that the wind will calm down to single digits over the weekend. 

SEA ISLAND WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the RSM Classic

There was a considerable draw bias at the RSM Classic 12 months ago, with those playing the Plantation-Seaside rotation enjoying the best of things.

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Aberg was on the right side of the draw, and the Swede found himself clear at the top of the leaderboard at the halfway stage, with a one-shot cushion over Eric Cole, Denny McCarthy, and Sam Ryder.

But it was over the weekend where Aberg took apart a rain-softened Seaside Course. In benign conditions, he fired a round of 61 on Saturday – as did Cole – to see the pair go clear of the rest alongside MacKenzie Hughes, who posted 60.

It was Aberg that would best carry his momentum into Sunday, as he posted another 61 – featuring ten birdies – to power clear of Hughes, who had stayed on with a closing 63 of his own.

In posting a final score of -29, Aberg had broken the tournament low score by a considerable margin into the bargain.

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This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the RSM Classic

The final leaderboard at last year’s RSM Classic was instructive of a key angle to take this week.

Of those that finished T5 or better, three – Hughes, Tyler Duncan, and Adam Svensson – were former RSM Classic champions.

Robert Streb has won two PGA TOUR titles in a decade of trying – both were at the RSM Classic, while Kevin Kisner has won and finished T2 in this event. Webb Simpson has twice lost in a playoff here too, some eight years apart.

All of which goes towards us concluding that course form really is the key this week; particularly when you consider that all of the above repeat performances have come at a tournament that was only founded in 2010.

The identities of Streb, Kisner, and Simpson in particular reveals the crucial skill required at Sea Island too: finding fairways, and lots of them. 

Seven players finished at T5 or better here last year, and five of them ranked inside the top-ten for Driving Accuracy. Only two did likewise for Driving Distance, and that was at a mark of well below 300 yards, on average. 

Meanwhile, four players finished T3 or better on the final leaderboard. Their putting ranks for the week? 1st, 4th, 5th, and 6th.

It’s true that these Sea Island courses played easier than normal last year due to the sheer amount of rain in the area, but there’s still parallels to be drawn: finding fairways, approaching well from the short grass, and putting to an elite level are the keys to unlocking the door. 

As for correlating courses, any coastal, exposed track will offer some kind of a guide, but the Sony Open and last week’s Bermuda Championship are particularly pertinent, because they require the players to keep their ball on a tight leash despite the winds buffeting them from the ocean.

The Cognizant Classic, another wind-affected event in Florida, is another tournament that has shown similar-looking leaderboards to the RSM over the years.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the RSM Classic   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the RSM Classic  

Top Tier Pick # 1

J.T. Poston (Odds: 28/1, FPPG: 67.9, Salary: $9,400)

With three PGA TOUR wins to his name, J.T. Poston clearly knows how to take care of business – and in this field, he looks like one of the more likely players to clinch another victory.

The Postman won last time out at the Shriners, but he’s had plenty of time to celebrate and now knuckle down to the serious business of competing for win number four.

His performance in Nevada was one of a man who had clearly worked hard on his game during his time away; he gained strokes on the field in all departments, and looked flawless in doing so.

Now he returns to a pair of courses where he has some previous. Poston has played in the last five editions of the RSM Classic, with a best of T14, but he’s actually fired five rounds of 66 or better at the Seaside Course.

The takeaway point? This proven winner has the game to shoot low numbers this week… and perhaps add another trophy to his collection.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 33rd
• Driving Accuracy – 34th
• SG: Putting – 49th

Top Tier Pick #2

Austin Eckroat (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 62.3, Salary: $8,500)

There’s an argument to suggest that Austin Eckroat is amongst the most likely to win the RSM Classic this week.

He was so impressive when triumphing at the WWT Championship just a few weeks ago, and then we factor in that he also won at the correlating Cognizant Classic earlier in the year.

The RSM Classic is of that parish too, with Eckroat likely to be rewarded for his consistently accurate driving. And if his putting spikes like it did in Mexico, he could be very difficult to stop.

Eckroat has only played in the RSM Classic once, but he finished T8 with two rounds of 66 or better on the Seaside Course.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 15th
• SG: Approach – 28th
• Total Birdies – 34th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Doug Ghim (Odds: 40/1, FPPG: 64.8, Salary: $8,000)

A missed cut at the Bermuda Championship last time out was the first time that Doug Ghim had played poorly in quite some time.

After a couple of weeks playing at layouts that didn’t necessarily suit his short, nuggety game, Ghim goes back to a layout – and the Seaside Course specifically – where he’s posted three rounds of 66 or better in four visits, with a best finish of T18.

A metronomic fairway finder, Ghim is at his best when the conditions require some technical ability; as we saw at the Shriners, when he chased Poston home in second place.

If the putter behaves, Ghim has a chance this week for sure.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 6th
• Driving Accuracy – 14th
• Scrambling – 44th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Greyson Sigg (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 50.9, Salary: $7,300)

By our reckoning, in his last four outings at the RSM Classic, Greyson Sigg has recorded six rounds of 66 or better at the Seaside Course.

It’s a remarkable record, particularly in the context of a formline in the event that reads 8-15-MC-MC.

But as you can see, Sigg has improved upon repeat visits to Sea Island, and he continues to improve on the PGA TOUR too. 

He doesn’t post many top-ten finishes, but a pair of those – at the Procore Championship and in Bermuda last week – have come during the FedEx Fall series (plus a T11 turn at the Black Desert Championship), so he is consistently finding himself in the upper echelons of leaderboards.

Key Stats:

• Approach Putt Performance – 2nd 
• SG: Approach – 23rd
• Driving Accuracy – 37th

Low-Tier Pick

Nico Echavarria (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 59.0, Salary: $7,200)

How about a low-tier pick who is very accurate off the tee, decent with his wedges, and who has won in the past month?

Nico Echavarria is playing the golf of his life right now, winning the ZOZO Championship and following up with T6 in Mexico. He even fired four under par rounds in tough conditions on his way to T29 in Bermuda last week.

Although his forays to the RSM Classic have not been fruitful so far, this is Echavarria 2.0 – a guy that beat some of the world’s best players in Japan less than a month ago.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 19th
• Greens in Regulation – 30th
• Driving Accuracy – 41st

Sleeper Pick for the RSM Classic

Sam Ryder (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 53.5, Salary: $6,800)

Putting woes have beset Sam Ryder’s season to the point that his T16 at the PLAYERS Championship in March remains by far his best effort this term.

But Ryder rolled the rock very nicely in Bermuda, which was the catalyst for a T5 finish, and the fact that he has also started finding fairways again during the FedEx Fall is also nicely timed.

A round of 62 on Friday at the Bermuda Championship reveals exactly what Ryder is capable of, and while he had never taken to the RSM Classic before, last year’s T13 finish was finally a breakthrough. He found himself in solo fifth after 54 holes, within shooting distance of Aberg, before falling away in his final round.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 19th
• Driving Accuracy – 30th
• SG: Approach – 46th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the RSM Classic

Ryan Moore (Odds: 200/1, FPPG: 49.2, Salary: $6,700)

After opening up with rounds of 65 and 67, Ryan Moore was going great guns at the Bermuda Championship… before the increased wind speeds impacted upon this short hitter’s ability to get his ball to the green.

But he should find the conditions more to his liking on Sea Island, where his lack of length won’t be penalized; in fact, his accuracy off the tee, and efficiency with wedges and irons, will come in very handy.

Moore has only played in the RSM Classic once, but finished T8 here 12 months ago – rounds of 62 and 65 on the Seaside Course over the weekend hopefully a hint of what’s to come.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 5th
• SG: Approach – 26th
• Birdie Average – 39th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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