Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship

Sanderson Farms Championship Fantasy Preview

As the dust settles on the United States’ emphatic win in the Presidents Cup, it’s back to traditional action we go with the resumption of the PGA TOUR’s Fall Swing.

It was an extraordinary edition of the team-based event at the Royal Montreal Club, with America whitewashing the International team on day one, before the overseas stars returned the favor on day two.

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It was on the third day that Jim Furyk’s men hammered home their advantage, winning the eight games 6-2, which set the scene for a comfortable run through the singles action on Sunday: Xander Schauffele, Russell Henley, Patrick Cantlay, and Keegan Bradley all winning their matches early on to set up a resounding seven-point victory.

The vibe will be rather more different in Mississippi this week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, where the players are effectively duking out to preserve their PGA TOUR careers.

Seven tournaments will be played over the course of the next eight weeks; by the end of them, we’ll know who has wrapped up their tour cards for 2025, and who will have to seek golfing employment elsewhere.

Sanderson Farms Championship Field

Only one of the Presidents Cup protagonists is scheduled to tee it up this week: Mackenzie Hughes, who won the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2022.

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Otherwise, it’s a pretty weak field, with those desperately needing a boost up the FedEx Cup standings in town to get some points on the board.

There’s no such concerns for the likes of Nick Dunlap, Eric Cole, and Stephan Jaeger – they’re simply playing this week because they want to, while Hughes, Patrick Rodgers, Maverick McNealy, Seamus Power, and Harris English finished just outside the top-50 of the standings.

Otherwise, it’s business time for the rest of the field: only the top-125 in the Fall Series standings will automatically retain their PGA TOUR playing rights. At 78, defending Sanderson Farms champion Luke List should be okay.

This Week’s Course Preview

This early part of the Fall Swing is, sadly, dominated by characterless golf courses with little in the way of unique features to describe.

The Country Club of Jackson, which is our host this week, is no different. It’s a nice enough parklands course, make no mistake, that measures 7,461 yards for its Par 72.

But its wide fairways and receptive greens do not exactly make for a taxing four days of golf for the pros, and while there’s a smattering of trees on the real estate, water is only tangibly in play on five holes. Bunkering is also kept to a minimum, and the rough can be described as pretty forgiving.

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Some of the Bermuda greens have tightly-mowed run-offs and waste areas, but that’s only troubling to those missing the middle of the dancefloor – if the weather is benign, many in the field will be at 70% or higher for GIR.

All of which screams putting contest: of the eight players that ranked T6 or better on the leaderboard here in 2023, five ranked inside the top-10 in the field for SG: Putting.

As is often the case on Par 72 tracks, the players will do most of their heavy lifting on the Par 5 holes – this quartet of holes yielded 33 eagles last year, let alone a birdie count somewhere near the 700 mark.

The 330-yard Par 4 fifteenth reveals why big hitters have something of an edge at the track, which is also confirmed by the fact that one of the hardest holes on the property, the 214-yard Par 3 seventh, plays to 214 yards.

Weather Forecast for Jackson, MS

Warm days and soft winds should add further to the scorable nature of the Country Club of Jackson.

According to the early forecast, it’s pretty much wall-to-wall sunshine in Jackson this week, with only Friday offering a hint of possibility of rain. Temperatures are set for the 82-88 degree range.

And the breeze, which acts as one of this layout’s sole defenses, is also manageable. That looks likely to range between 5-10mph across the four days, which will do little to trouble the players.

JACKSON WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Sanderson Farms Championship

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You’ve read about our belief that the Country Club of Jackson lends its hand to a putting shootout, and you’re about to read that Luke List won the 2023 edition of this event.

The combination of those two things may force your mind to melt….

But it’s true: List, who ranked 189th on TOUR for SG: Putting last season, arrived in Jackson and proceeded to put on a clinic with the flat stick, gaining +1.46 on the field on the greens.

Go figure….

In truth, List had to do things the hard way, after finding himself locked in a five-way playoff with Ludvig Aberg, Ben Griffin, Henrik Norlander, and Scott Stallings; the quintet all locked on -18 at the end of 72 holes.

With so many players heading to extra time, thoughts of a Monday finish loomed to separate them. But, in the end, List birdied the first extra hole – the rest made par – and that was that.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Sanderson Farms Championship

It’s back we go to full field PGA TOUR golf, and while the Sanderson Farms Championship isn’t the easiest of events to draft for, boy it’s good to be back!

• PGA $100k Drive the Green: Given the variance of these putting contests, it makes sense not to go crazy with your staking plan this week. So keep your risk low but the potential rewards high – this $5 contest pays $25k to its winner.
• PGA $300k Sand Trap: If you’re working with a meatier bankroll, why not take that ‘low risk, high reward’ strategy to the next level with this contest. At $25 per entry, there’s a top prize of $100k to play for.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

How do you profile an event that has been won by Ryan Armour, one of the shortest drivers on the PGA TOUR in the modern era, and a year later by Cameron Champ, one of the longest hitters professional golf has ever seen?

You might come to the conclusion that it doesn’t matter so much what you do off the tee at the Country Club of Jackson; an idea franked by shorter hitters like Hughes and Peter Malnati in the winners’ circle here.

There’s still an argument that bombers have the edge here. The wide fairways give them extra room to work with, while the presence of four scorable Par 5s and a drivable Par 4 also add further evidence to that.

But the key is putting, unashamedly so. Year after year, the leaderboard at the Sanderson Farms is packed with those that have putted the best all week long, and it’s a common trait shared by many that have won or finished second here – even List joined the party 12 months ago.

Predicting who will putt well from one week to the next….well, that’s no easy task, but we can look elsewhere for further clues.

As you research those who have played well at the Country Club of Jackson, and seek correlations with other courses, a handful of contenders emerges: Muirfield Village, Colonial Country Club, Sea Island, TPC Deere Run, and the trio of courses that make up The American Express rotation. 

Why exactly these layouts correlate is beyond us, but the facts are the facts!

Here’s another interesting aside; the importance of which you can judge for yourself. Here’s a list featuring six of the last nine of the Sanderson Farms Championship. In brackets, you’ll find the states that they were raised in, or went to college in: 

Luke List (Tennessee), Sam Burns (Louisiana), Sebastian Munoz (Texas), Cameron Champ (Texas), Cody Gribble (Texas), and Peter Malnati (Tennessee). Another, Sergio Garcia, has spent a ton of time in Texas due to the family connections of his wife.

So is there a certain Southern flair that comes to the fore in Mississippi? 

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Sanderson Farms Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Sanderson Farms Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Nick Dunlap (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 64.5, Salary: $9,700)

To offer a flavor of how bizarre this event is, and how difficult it is to predict, Keith Mitchell was installed as the 20/1 favorite with the sportsbooks when they released their odds.

A bit short, you might think, for a player that has struggled with his putter for months, and whose record at the Country Club of Jackson reads four starts, four missed cuts.

You can cut holes in the challenge of many of the players in this field, but it’s hard to argue with the outstanding 2024 that Nick Dunlap has had. He started the year as an amateur; he ended the main part of the season not a million miles from qualifying for the TOUR Championship.

When his approach play is thriving, Dunlap is a real contender wherever he goes; for context, he has served up positive numbers in that department in each of his last three starts.

The winner of the correlating American Express earlier in the year, Dunlap has racked up two titles in 2024, plus four other finishes of T11 or better. He is, therefore, leaps and bounds above the majority in the field this week.

Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 8th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 16th
• Putts Per Round – 53rd

Top Tier Pick #2

Ben Griffin (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 65.5, Salary: $9,500)

Make no bones about it, Ben Griffin should have won the Sanderson Farms Championship 12 months ago.

He led by three shots heading into the final round, but fell foul of the nerves that beset many a maiden staring down the barrel of a maiden PGA TOUR win.

Another year older and wiser, Griffin should make a better fist of things if he ever finds himself in the same position again – and his form in recent times suggests he can contend at the Country Club of Jackson once more.

The owner of an excellent short game, which translates itself into plenty of birdies being made, Griffin’s approach play has been revelatory since the spring; he’s bested the field in that department in nine of his last ten starts.

Griffin has finished T7 or better in three starts since June; everything appears to be in order for another tilt at the title in Jackson.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 6th
• SG: Approach – 38th
• SG: Putting – 42nd

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Eric Cole (Odds: 33/1, FPPG: 60.1, Salary: $9,200)

Given that driving is the obvious glitch in Eric Cole’s game, wide open fairways like those at the Country Club of Jackson should be perfect.

Because the other elements of Cole’s game – from his iron and wedge play, to chipping and putting – are elite, and certainly amongst the very best in this field.

A missed cut at the Procore Championship sees him slip down the pecking order this week, but we’re willing to overlook his struggles at Silverado; don’t forget, that layout is pretty claustrophobic with tight, tree-lined fairways.

The open spaces in Jackson should prove more to his liking, and Cole’s short game will always give him a chance of contending.

Key Stats:

• Total Birdies – 2nd
• SG: Putting – 47th
• Proximity to Hole – 55th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Emiliano Grillo (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 60.6, Salary: $7,700)

It depends whether you’re a glass half-full or half-empty person as to whether Emiliano Grillo is a bet this week.

His best finish since the start of summer on the PGA TOUR is T24. And yet, he’s only missed one cut since the PGA Championship in May.

So Grillo is playing solid, if unspectacular golf, but maybe the twin inspirations of having watched the Presidents Cup at home with the rest of us – while knowing he has a previous top-five in this event – will spur him on.

Let’s not forget too that the Argentine has won one of our correlating events this week (the Charles Schwab Challenge), and has recorded top-20s at many other tracks we might consider complimentary too.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 51st
• Total Birdies – 53rd
• SG: Putting – 81st

Low-Tier Pick

Pierceson Coody (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 60.2, Salary: $7,000)

Bombs, putts, and birdies has been the strategy for a number of winners at the Country Club of Jackson, including Luke List, Sam Burns, and Sebastian Munoz in recent memory.

Pierceson Coody is a purveyor of that particular artform, and he does it pretty well too; two top-five finishes since the end of May testament to that.

Even in just his rookie year, Coody has had a brush with the top of the leaderboard in a PGA TOUR event, and in fact he could have won the correlating ISCO Championship – he led by one shot going into the final round, before having to settle for a playoff berth.

The Texan fits the bill as far as the Southern connection goes, and while there isn’t much subtlety to his game, Coody’s length and excellent putting will surely prove extremely valuable this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 11th
• Birdie Average – 24th
• Greens in Regulation – 58th

Sleeper Pick for the Sanderson Farms Championship

Trace Crowe (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 56.2, Salary: $7,000)

The approach play of Trace Crowe has improved to the point that, in his penultimate outing, he was able to record his best-ever PGA TOUR finish: T7 at the Wyndham Championship.

His iron and wedge play was solid last time out at the Procore Championship, where Crowe struggled on the bumpy Poa Annua greens and missed the cut. He’s not the first, nor the last, Carolinan to struggle on Poa.

Back on Bermuda, Crowe should feel more at home – back somewhere, hopefully, to the flatstick form that sees him rank 54th on TOUR this term for SG: Putting.

The 27-year-old also ranks 17th for Birdie Average, so if he can continue to break par and cut out mistakes, Crowe will have the profile of a player that can win at this level.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 14th
• Birdie Average – 17th
• SG: Putting – 54th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Sanderson Farms Championship

David Lipsky (Odds: 150/1, FPPG: 43.8, Salary: $6,500)

It’s hard to fathom why David Lipsky’s run to solo second at the Procore Championship has been so widely ignored.

Yes, he struggles to link together successive quality performances, but so good was Lipsky on approach and on the greens in particular, there’s no reason to think his strong showing can’t be replicated in Jackson.

T9 at the correlating Charles Schwab Challenge in May adds another strong to his bow, and while backing him is a gamble in very sense of the word, Lipsky heads for Mississippi with more confidence than most in this field. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 37th
• Greens in Regulation – 54th
• Approach Putt Performance – 59th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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