Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – The Sentry

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2023 The Sentry  

The Sentry Fantasy Preview

Happy new year!

Quite how 2024 will pan out for world golf is anybody’s guess, but if it’s as rambunctious and as fractious off the course as 2023 was, we’d better strap ourselves in for another rocky ride.

If any PGA TOUR event sums up the chaos of golf’s ongoing civil war, it’s the Tournament of Champions – the annual curtain-raiser that kicks off the traditional two-week jaunt to Hawaii. 

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Since 2018, the Tournament of Champions roll call of winners features Jon Rahm, Cameron Smith and Dustin Johnson – a trio of heavyweights who have since cashed in their chips with LIV Golf. The PGA TOUR is worse off for their absence, and we can only hope as fans of the sport that some kind of satisfying solution is found in 2024.

Filling the void will be a stack of new tour card holders, who range from sprightly youngsters to grizzled veterans seeking another – or perhaps their first – crack at the PGA TOUR. But they will have a watching brief this week, like the rest of us, as the Tournament of Champions is open solely to those who won on the TOUR last year or otherwise finished inside the top-50 of the FedEx Cup standings.

Let’s get another year of golf DFS up and running!

2024 The Sentry Field

As mentioned, only the cream of the crop score an invite to The Sentry.

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Some 59 players will do battle in the first Signature Event of the campaign, with the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau and Collin Morikawa heading to Maui.

In addition to the 35 event winners from the 2022-23 season, a further 24 places have been ringfenced for those finishing prominently in the FedEx Cup – hence how the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth find themselves in an event that has been renamed The Sentry from its previous moniker of the Tournament of Champions.

Of those who are eligible (and who subsequently haven’t jumped ship to LIV), the only player to have qualified for the TOC but turned down their place is Rory McIlroy.

This Week’s Course Preview

The Kapalua Resort is that rarest of birds: a Par 73 course on the PGA TOUR.
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But it’s not some kind of mammoth beast, as it measures 7,452 yards and boasts plenty of undulating fairways – therefore, outright power and distance are not pre-requisites for success.

The unique routing is made up of four Par 5s, three Par 3s and eleven Par 4s, although the emphasis is very much on jolly early season fun – the winning score is routinely in the -20s under par, while Cameron Smith torched a rain-softened Kapalua with a winning mark of -34 in 2022.

Make birdies or go home is the order of the day, with wide-open fairways and large Bermuda greens keeping the difficulty level down as the players ease into the new season. 

As many as 14 of the 18 holes played under par at the 2023 edition, although that’s not say it’s all plain sailing – the seventeenth is a Par 4 measuring a whopping 550 yards, with more scores over par made here than under last year.

But if you’re looking for scoring opportunities, they come no more straightforward than the Par 5 fifth – one of the easiest holes on the entire PGA TOUR rotation, there were more eagles than bogeys made here in 2023.

Weather Forecast for Maui, HI

The weather can be a mixed bag in Hawaii at this time of year, although one consolation for the players is that the fierce wind that can blow here looks to be down this week.

Indeed, forecasts of just 7mph are completely out of character – that may change in the days ahead, but if it doesn’t then expect another super-low score to win the event.

Otherwise, it’s pretty much wall-to-wall sun and temperatures of around 73 degrees, although there is the possibility of a rain shower and thunderstorm or two on Friday.

MAUI COUNTY WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the The Sentry

The final round of the 2023 Tournament of Champions marked one of the most remarkable turnarounds we would see all year.

All told, there was a nine-shot swing between 54-hole leader Collin Morikawa and the chasing Jon Rahm on the Sunday – enough for the Spaniard to haul in the disconsolate Morikawa.

The former British Open champion was in cruise control, firing in rounds of 64, 66 and 65 to completely dominate proceedings and look set to canter to victory.

He even made three birdies in his opening six holes in that final round, but then the malaise set in – seven consecutive pars, followed by three bogeys, not likely to get the job done at an event where breaking par is so easy.

So step forward Rahm, whose second round of 71 looked to have precluded him from contending. But he rallied with 67 on Saturday before saving his very best for the Sunday – nine birdies and an eagle, after bogeying the opening hole, enough for him to establish a two-shot cushion over Morikawa at -27.

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Where to Play Fantasy Golf for the The Sentry this Week

It’s a case of steady as she goes at the Tournament of Champions, a limited field event played after a lengthy hiatus during the festive period. Variance is likely to be high.

What’s more, the whales can dominate the payout window by fielding a stack of different roster variations, but with our draft we’re hoping to still take down some early season gold in single-entry contests.

• PGA $25k Caddie: $5 secures you a ticket into this single-entry game, from which the winner will trouser $2,500 and the rest of those that place in the money landing some very handy early-season payouts.

• PGA $5k Albatross: Those with a more forgiving bankroll may instead opt for this $12 game, where just 489 other teams stand in your way of the $500 jackpot.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

The identities of the recent winners of the Tournament of Champions – Rahm, Smith, Harris English, Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson – confirms that you have to be a stud to win the TOC.

Most of the field is, so that doesn’t exactly narrow things down, so we can also look to the Sony Open as a guide: although Kapalua and Waialae are completely different golf courses, the players have often commented on how familiarity with these unique winds can be a huge edge-maker.

Whenever we have resort-style golf with wide fairways and large greens, we automatically think of those players who a) hit their irons and wedges close, and b) are solid putting in the 4ft-15ft range – absolute necessities at an event where making birdie after birdie is so vital.

Don’t worry about driving distance – Morikawa and the next four players on the leaderboard (Max Homa, Tom Hoge, Tom Kim and J.J. Spaun) all averaged under 290 yards off the tee here 12 months ago. It’s also possible to miss fairways and still maintain a high GIR count, such is the relaxed nature of the rough at Kapalua.

Approach play and Bermuda putting – what could be a simpler combination. Rahm only ranked 33 in the field for SG: Approach last year, but as we’ve learned his victory was something of an anomaly given Morikawa’s Sunday woes; he, on the other hand, ranked seventh for SG: Approach, as he so routinely does with his elite iron and wedge play.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the The Sentry   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the The Sentry  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Xander Schauffele (Odds: 16/1, FPPG: 94.8, Salary: $10,000)

Given that he putted so well when winning the Hero World Challenge, it’s easy to make a case for Scottie Scheffler this week, while these are conditions you expect that Viktor Hovland will love – despite a so-so record at Kapalua so far.

But with such a lengthy gap since any competitive golf was played, maybe it’s smarter to spread our salary across a handful of elite players rather than risking it all on one of the biggest hitters.

Xander Schauffele is a player who plenty of DFS gamers and bettors have given up on; his undoubted ability not reflected in wins often enough.

He, like the second player on our draft below, will be dreaming of majors in 2024, but first things first he’ll be looking to get a few more TOUR wins to his name – what better place to start than at a venue where he has won and finished second before.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 3rd
• SG: Putting – 5th
• Birdie Average – 15th

Top Tier Pick #2

Max Homa (Odds: 14/1, FPPG: 103.8, Salary: $9,700)

Will 2024 be the year that Max Homa clinches his first major?

He’s got game, as the youth say, and given that he can struggle off the tee, the extra room at Kapalua should serve him well – as confirmed by a T3 finish here 12 months ago.

The real strong suits of Homa’s game are precise approach play and rock-solid putting, and as a prolific birdie-maker this type of ‘easy’ golf really does appeal – confirmed by his pair of wins at the Fortinet Championship.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 6th
• Birdie Average – 9th
• SG: Approach – 26th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Tom Kim (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 102.0, Salary: $8,900)

It feels rather incongruous to be able to draft the world number eleven at $8,900, but that’s the case here with Tom Kim – who has already shown a love for windy golf in his young career.

You may recall that he finished T2 at the British Open in the summer and solo third in the Scottish Open in 2022, so Kim is a player that won’t be fazed by the exposed conditions in Hawaii.

A winner of the Shriners in his penultimate start, Kim continues to serve up elite approach play numbers with a reliable enough putting stroke – a small improvement with the flat stick will see him wining majors and the more prestigious TOUR events.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 10th
• Birdie Average – 14th
• One-Putt Percentage – 46th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Eric Cole (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 95.9, Salary: $7,400)

A rookie on TOUR in 2023, Eric Cole made a habit of turning up at courses he hadn’t seen before and doing the business.

He’ll need to do so again at the idiosyncratic Kapalua, but the roomy fairways will negate the weakness in his game while maximizing the return from his excellent iron and wedge play.

Cole delivered four top-five finishes in five starts on the Fall Swing, and so all that’s missing from his resumé now is a PGA TOUR victory. Perhaps Kapalua is the ideal venue for exactly that?

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 6th
• SG: Putting – 13th
• SG: Approach – 19th

Low-Tier Pick

J.T. Poston (Odds: 100/1, FPPG: 109.0, Salary: $7,200)

It comes as no surprise that J.T. Poston’s two PGA TOUR victories have come at ‘easy’ golf courses with a score of -20 and better.

He’s the ideal pick for birdie-heavy courses – solid-enough approach play and quality putting combining to great effect at layouts where there’s little trouble off the tee or around the greens.

The Postman certainly delivered towards the end of 2023, with T2 at the 3M Open and T3 at the Shriners backed by other top-10 returns. Kapalua should be right up his street.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 29th
• SG: Approach – 47th
• Birdie Average – 56th

Sleeper Pick for the The Sentry

Brendon Todd (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 95.0, Salary: $6,900)

Somebody that does like to be beside the seaside is Brendon Todd, a winner at Mayakoba and in Bermuda plus a runner-up at Pebble Beach.

Squally coastal golf is Todd’s jam, and as such a best of T8 at Kapalua comes as no real surprise.

Although one of the shortest hitters on TOUR, Todd can still make it work when conditions suit, and his sign-off to 2023 – three starts, a top-10 and a finish no lower than T28 – suggests he’s in a position to take advantage in Maui.

Key Stats:

• Proximity to Hole – 10th
• SG: Putting – 22nd
• Birdie Average – 35th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the The Sentry

Tom Hoge (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 66.5, Salary: $6,700)

There’s an elite player in Tom Hoge waiting to burst out – who knows, maybe it will happen in 2024?

He had a pretty average year by his standards in 2023, and yet Hoge still ranked ninth on TOUR for SG: Approach. Wide fairways, large greens….this should allow that skillset to flourish.

T3 here last year certainly hints at a liking for Kapalua, and with a solo third to his name at the Sony Open – as well as a win at Pebble Beach – coastal golf where birdies are at a premium seems to work for Hoge.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 9th
• Birdie Average – 27th
• Putts Per Round – 52nd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match players to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season (2024)

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