Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Shriners Children’s Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Shriners Children’s Open

Shriners Children’s Open Fantasy Preview

Winning is a habit. And it’s a very nice habit to have.

A year ago, Matt McCarty was a relative unknown in the world of golf. Now, he’s a bona fide thoroughbred heading for bigger and better things.

Since July, McCarty has won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour. That earned him a battlefield promotion to the PGA TOUR, where – lo and behold – in just his second start, the left-hander took down the Black Desert Championship.

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Played for the first time at the Black Desert Resort Golf Club, which can be filed away as one of the easiest layouts ever seen on the PGA TOUR, McCarty broke the back of his win with rounds of 62 and 64….before a nerveless showing on Sunday enabled him to extend his lead; what a luxury for a maiden seeking their first top-tier victory.

McCarty birdied the first hole of his final round to settle any nerves, before making an eagle on the back nine and birdies at 16 and 18 to cap a fine three-shot win.

See, we told you winning is a habit.

Up to 95 in the FedEx Fall rankings, McCarty could – as those ranked 51-60 will – gatecrash a handful of Signature Events next year. It’s a truly remarkable few months in the young man’s career.

The PGA TOUR now heads for the Shriners Children’s Open in Nevada, before embarking on a magical mystery tour that takes in jaunts to Japan, Mexico, and Bermuda.

Last Week’s Fantasy Results

Despite losing our top pick Kieth Mitchell to the cut line, our Tuesday Sleeper Report pick of Winner Matt McCarty truly paid off. 

Here was a guy that was not looked at by most, but we saw something in the young rookie and the gamble paid off big time!

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Looking back to last week, here’s what we said about Matt heading into the Black Desert Championship:

‘Although his is a name that might be new to some golf fans, Matt McCarty has just served up an all-time season on the Korn Ferry Tour.

He’s won three times on that tour since July, in amongst five other top-five finishes, so it would be fair to say that McCarty is one of the most exciting KFT prospects in some time. It can take some time to adjust when stepping up in grade, admittedly, but given how weak this field is, how good McCarty is, and the fact that he was T2 at the Utah Championship as recently as August, there’s plenty of converging trends that support the left-hander’s chances this week.’

Shriners Children’s Open Field

Tom Kim will be looking to complete a remarkable three-peat at TPC Summerlin, having won here in both 2022 and 2023.

The world number 25 is just one of four players in the top-50 of the OWGR to tee up this week, with Davis Thompson, Taylor Pendrith, and Cam Davis – despite finishing inside the all-important 50 in the FedEx Cup standings – deciding to make the trip to the desert.

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TPC Summerlin success stories like Adam Hadwin, Tom Hoge, Eric Cole, and the in-form Beau Hossler will have another crack at winning this title, while only four former Shriners champions – Kim, Martin Laird, Webb Simpson, and Ryan Moore – will take up their place in the field.

Stephan Jaeger, who finished solo second in Utah last week, is another eyeing some late season silverware.

This Week’s Course Preview

Although the Fall Swing isn’t punctuated with golf courses boasting unique character, TPC Summerlin stops the rot this week.

It’s a gorgeous track not unlike the Black Desert Resort last week, although the not-so-generous fairways and trickier Bentgrass green complexes than those will up the ante somewhat.

Sitting at an altitude of around 2,000ft above sea level, TPC Summerlin is a Par 71 (there’s just three Par 5s) that measures 7,233 yards, however with the extra ball carry that altitude brings, all of the players in the field are in with a shout this week, regardless of their length.

The layout is almost completely exposed to the elements, with few trees to speak of, and while water is only in play on four holes, there’s still a considerable 92 bunkers to account for.

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The upshot is that while TPC Summerlin is an easy course that will require lots of birdies to be made to get it done (Tom Kim made 27 on his way to victory in 2023), the manner of doing so will lean on more clubs in the bag than simply the flatstick.

Getting a long, straight drive away is key on the track’s most scorable holes, namely the three Par 5s and the drivable Par 4 at sixteen.

The hardest holes on the course are the Par 3s, with the eighth measuring a whopping 239 yards, while the third hole – a 492-yard Par 4 – is far more complex than most of the other holes on the real estate.

Weather Forecast for Las Vegas, NV

The weather in Nevada can be unpredictable at this time of year, but this week’s forecast takes the biscuit.

On Wednesday, the temperatures are set to hit a sultry 86 degrees in Summerlin….by Friday, they have dropped to a less sweat-inducing 64 degrees!

At least we’re expecting sunshine for all four days of the action, with a hot start on Thursday before the mercury dips down to 64 and just above for the rest of the week.

The chance of rain, as per the early forecast, is minimal, but look out for the wind on Thursday and Friday in particular; that could hit in excess of 18mph.

LAS VEGAS WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Shriners Children’s Open

Tom Kim has won three times on the PGA TOUR in his young career, with two of those titles coming at the Shriners – including his victory at TPC Summerlin 12 months ago.

The Korean blitzed his way to the title with 27 birdies and an eagle, with a Saturday round of 62 the highlight of a fantastic week. Kim, the defending champion, was six shots adrift of first round leader Beau Hossler, and he was the same margin behind at the halfway stage too.

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But the young phenom put his foot down on the Saturday, climbing a whopping 25 places on the leaderboard with that round of 62, and he birdied three of the opening four holes on Sunday to stand out alone at the top.

Adam Hadwin hung around, while a closing 62 from Eric Cole got him into the conversation too. But Kim played the back nine in a bogey-free -3 to maintain his cushion and win by one from Hadwin, whose birdie at the 72nd hole would be to no avail.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Shriners Children’s Open

It was a complete leap into the unknown last week with the Black Desert Championship making its debut, so it’s fantastic to be on more familiar ground with the Shriners this time around.

Indeed, this event has been very kind to DFS gamers over the years – specifically those who follow the template for success when drafting lineups for TPC Summerlin, so this is a good week to push the boat out a little with our contest selection.

• GOLF TOUR $300k Sand Trap: There’s a $100k top prize for the winning team this week, so if we get our lineup build right, the rewards speak for themselves. There’s also a stack of rewarding consolation prizes available from your $25 entry.
• GOLF TOUR $100k Drive the Green: There’s a strong chance that casual gamers will a) play the Drive the Green contest this week, and b) not know the ideal portfolio of player to draft for the Shriners (which is a little unusual). So does opportunity knock?

This Week’s Fantasy Notes for the Shriners Children’s Open

Winning scores of -20 or lower are not uncommon at this time of year on the PGA TOUR, although the manner in which those marks are achieved can change. So far, we’ve seen putting shootouts at the Procore Championship, Sanderson Farms, and Black Desert, but things definitely pick up a notch this week in terms of ball striking.

The last four winners of this event – Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Martin Laird, and Kevin Na – are, at their best, laser-accurate both off the tee and on approach, so while birdies are the order of the day at TPC Summerlin, the way in which they are accumulated is different to that of weeks gone by.

Last year, of the 12 players that finished T7 or better, eleven of them ranked inside the top-25 in the field for SG: Approach, with six of that contingent ranking inside the top-10. That continues an ongoing trend at TPC Summerlin, so you’ll need to bring your A-game with irons and wedges in hand this week.

Eight of the aforementioned 12 also ranked top-25 for Driving Accuracy for the week, so fairways and greens really is the order of the day – errant bombers will not be as well treated as they have been recently on the PGA TOUR.

Those looking for correlating courses may turn to TPC Scottsdale, home of the Phoenix Open, as that’s a desert track at altitude. Sedgefield, home of the Wyndham Championship, has also been a strong proving ground for the Shriners over the years.

Another short, tight track – TPC River Highlands – saw Tom Kim lose in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler, with former Shriners champions Patrick Cantlay and Sungjae Im both in the top-five of that Travelers Championship renewal.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Shriners Children’s Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Shriners Children’s Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Taylor Pendrith (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 70.2, Salary: $10,200)

Having played in all five sessions at the Presidents Cup, Taylor Pendrith takes a huge step down in grade this week – he should do so with his chest puffed out and his chin high.

The Canadian has improved immeasurably this year; hence why Mike Weir trusted him to be one of the International team’s key players.

Pendrith doesn’t have to play this week for ranking points and the like, but he’s chosen to – presumably because he enjoys golf at TPC Summerlin, where he finished T3 a year ago. Indeed, he was just one shot behind the leaders after 54 holes, so could well have walked away with the trophy.

Since then, he’s won the CJ CUP Byron Nelson, racked up five other top-ten finishes on the PGA TOUR, and posted a T16 turn in the U.S. Open; all evidence of his rise to the upper echelons of world golf.

Pendrith’s season-long stats aren’t great, but take a narrower focus and we note that he’s gained strokes on the field in nine of his last ten outings; often against stellar opponents, too.

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 7th
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 22nd
• Total Driving – 53rd

Top Tier Pick #2

Seamus Power (Odds: 30/1, FPPG: 65.8, Salary: $9,300)

There’s a strong case for Tom Hoge in this second top-tier slot, but the fact that he’s only gained strokes on the field putting in one of his last seven starts is enough for us, regrettably, to leave him out of our draft.

Instead, we’ve picked a guy who many have been sweet on lately….despite bombs away, putting shootouts not exactly being his modus operandi. Seamus Power tends to come to the fore when some ball-striking prowess is required; as it is, historically, at TPC Summerlin, despite the low-scoring nature of the venue.

The Irishman has finished T11 in both of his Fall Swing outings so far, making considerable gains on the field in each on approach and putting. At a venue where finding fairways comes with a premium, expect Power to progress even further.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 37th
• Total Birdies – 37th
• SG: Approach – 47th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

J.J. Spaun (Odds: 45/1, FPPG: 57.5, Salary: $7,900)

Having ended the main part of the 2024 season like a train, there were some concerns when J.J. Spaun was forced to withdraw from the Sanderson Farms Championship after some tawdry early golf.

Somewhat surprisingly, he returned just a week later at the Black Desert Championship. And he played well: gaining +1.46 strokes on the field with his ball-striking on his way to a T25 finish.

With a top-10 and two T15 finishes at TPC Summerlin, Spaun is comfortable in these unique conditions, and he played well enough in Utah last week to suggest he can contend for the trophy in Nevada.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 19th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 54th
• Scoring Average – 64th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Chan Kim (Odds: 50/1, FPPG: 69.6, Salary: $7,600)

It’s amazing that a player that ranks 15th on TOUR for SG: Tee-to-Green in 2024 hasn’t contended more forcibly to win events.

You’ll know instinctively that it’s a weak flatstick that has prevented him from doing so, but improvements in that department lately – including +0.50 on the field on Bentgrass greens just 130 miles away last week – can offer cause for positivity.

Although making his TPC Summerlin debut this week, Kim – with his accurate driving and laser-accurate approach play – should take to the test, with T12 at the correlating Wyndham Championship, plus rounds of 65 and 66 last week, suggesting that he’s comfortable at altitude.

If he can putt better, Kim will fit the same profile as former Shriners winners like Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, and Kevin Na as an accurate, metronomic type.

Key Stats:

• SG: Tee-to-Green – 15th
• Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders – 26th
• Driving Accuracy – 35th

Low-Tier Pick

Patton Kizzire (Odds: 66/1, FPPG: 60.2, Salary: $7,300)

The three Fall Series events we’ve seen so far have all, to an extent, been putting shootouts.

It’s testament to Patton Kizzire’s ability that he was able to win the Procore Championship, then, and post a more than respectable T11 at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

It’s somewhat ironic, because we’d expect Kizzire’s best work to come on more technical layouts – which TPC Summerlin is, at least when compared to the last three host venues on TOUR, anyway.

With T2 and T4 finishes to his name at TPC Summerlin, Kizzire heads to a happy hunting ground with his game in the best form that it’s been in quite some time.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 4th
• SG: Approach – 14th
• Driving Accuracy – 57th

Sleeper Pick for the Shriners Children’s Open

Lee Hodges (Odds: 110/1, FPPG: 54.1, Salary: $6,900)

Producing his best putting performance on American soil since June at the Black Desert Championship, Lee Hodges’ game appeared to take a huge leap forward.

Otherwise, he’s in rude health: if you combine the Sanderson Farms and Black Desert Championships, he’s gained +3.00 on the field on approach; that’s an iron and wedge play clinic.

Generally favoring accuracy off the tee over big bombs, Hodges’ natural tendencies are well suited to TPC Summerlin, and the fact that he tends to putt better on Bentgrass than any other surface makes us think he’s being undervalued this week.

Key Stats:

• Driving Accuracy – 23rd
• SG: Approach – 32nd
• Total Birdies – 51st

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Shriners Children’s Open

Greyson Sigg (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 49.6, Salary: $6,700)

You wouldn’t necessarily describe the birdie shootout of the Black Desert Championship as ideal for Greyson Sigg, and yet he produced an excellent turn to finish T11.

That follows T4 at the Procore Championship, so things are moving in the right direction for the mercurial talent.

He’s played at TPC Summerlin three times, made the cut in each, with a top finish of T28 – that’s a useful springboard, because there aren’t many in the field that have a blemish-free record at this idiosyncratic layout.

The basic touchstones of Sigg’s game – reliable accuracy off the tee, quality on approach – have been in evidence lately, while his putting performance on the Bentgrass greens of Black Desert was his best flatstick show since January.

Key Stats:

• Approach Putt Performance – 3rd
• SG: Approach – 23rd
• Driving Accuracy – 32nd

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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