Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open  

Texas Children’s Houston Open Fantasy Preview

A strange old week of golf ended in the unlikeliest fashion in Florida.

The weather forecast looked a little dicey in the lead-up to the Valspar Championship, and in the end a hellish wind blew for much of the tournament – blowing away the dreams of those that had backed the classier operators in the field.

Justin Thomas co-led after he’d played 37 holes, but then had the kind of Saturday putting day that amateurs dread, before Keith Mitchell not only gave up a two-shot lead after 54 holes but disappeared from the leaderboard without a trace. 

Even Cameron Young, not without a chance on the 72nd hole, dumped his tee shot onto the pine straw, recovered somewhat, before hitting one of the worst birdie putts you’re ever likely to see at the top level.

All of which left the door ajar for Peter Malnati, who struck a nerveless approach into the Par 3 seventeenth before, by hook or by crook, making par at the last to secure his second PGA TOUR title – and his first in more than 3,000 days. His emotional interview afterwards was a reminder for a lot of these guys, golf remains a grind even after being a professional for many years.

All of which brings a rather curious Florida Swing to a close. This week, we head to Texas for the Houston Open.

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Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week our best finish was Adam Hadwin who came in with a T5 off our Tuesday Sleeper Report. 

Our main guy JT struggled came out of the gate strong but his putter ultimately failed him over the weekend.

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2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Field

Can Scottie Scheffler make it three in a row? That will be the aim this week as he looks to add the Houston Open title to the PLAYERS Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational trophies he’s hoisted in recent weeks.

Aiming to stop him will be the likes of Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Jason Day, and Will Zalatoris, while Tony Finau will return in a bid to defend the title he won here in November 2022. 

Peter Malnati, Jake Knapp, and Nick Dunlap are winners in 2024 looking to double-up in Houston, while the likes of Si-Woo Kim, Kurt Kitayama, Tom Hoge, and Luke List will be looking to join them in that club this week.

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This Week’s Course Preview

This will be the fourth time that Memorial Park has hosted the Houston Open, although it’s the first time in this March timeslot – traditionally, the event has been played in November (albeit it wasn’t played at all in 2023).

So we’re expecting a slightly softer version of the course this week with winter only just behind us, which will be a factor as it’s already a long old stretch – 7,412 yards for its Par 70, to be precise. There’s only three Par 5s too, which means that four of the Par 4s play in the region of 500 yards and two of the Par 3s are 200+ yards!

The layout has been renovated by Tom Doak, whose changes included replacing bunkers with closely-mown run-off areas, under the guidance of consultant Brooks Koepka, while some trees were also removed – the latter change allowing the wind to be more of a factor.

The good news is that the fairways are generous enough, with minimalist rough allowing decent approaches into the overseeded Bermuda greens no matter where the players are striking from. As mentioned, many of the bunkers have been replaced, and there isn’t much water on the real estate either. The greens are on the larger size, too.

The main defenses of the layout are the Texan breeze and the need to be hitting woods and long irons hole after hole, which of course brings the proximity rate of the players down – even if the GIR rate is typically pretty high.

In 2022, only five of the holes on the premises averaged under par, and a couple of the longer Par 4s – the 520+ yard first and fourteenth in particular – played downright nasty.

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Weather Forecast for Houston, TX

It wouldn’t be a PGA TOUR event in 2024 without some freaky weather!

Keep your eye on the forecast for the weekend, which is suggesting wind gusts of 20mph and higher – that may, of course, change as the week goes on.

Otherwise, the weather predictions for Houston aren’t too bad. Equal parts sunshine and cloud, there seems to be little threat of rain, and temperatures are expected to hover between 75-80 degrees all week long.

HOUSTON WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Texas Children’s Houston Open

You may recall the extended summer of 2022 – Tony Finau winning three times on the PGA TOUR between July and November.

This Houston Open title was the third of those, and it came in such comfortable fashion. Opening rounds of 62 (the best on Friday) and 65 (the tied-best on Thursday) set the tone for a four-shot lead at the halfway stage, which Finau maintained heading into the final round.

In fact, only one player – Tyson Alexander – was in seven shots of Finau’s monstrous lead, so it was highly unlikely that a player who had an appetite for winning at the time would relent.

And so it proved, with Big Tone playing the front nine in -4, and then doing his best impression of an idling racehorse on the back nine – going round in +3. Still, it made no difference: Finau still won by four shots from Alexander in one of the most comprehensive PGA TOUR wins you’ll likely see.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open

Leaving behind the chaos of the Florida Swing, we move into new – and more confident – territory in Texas, with an event that has thrown up a clear profile of potential winner over its three years at Memorial Park.

• PGA $600k Pitch & Putt: As mentioned, this is a good tournament for those that know their history, so we can parlay that course knowledge and player profile into this big old contest – its $20 in, but who knows, it might be $150k out if you can top the leaderboard.

• PGA $250k Drive the Green: If you’re on a tighter budget, you can still get involved in a big prize contest – this game pays $50k to the winner; not bad from an entry fee of $5 per team.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

The presence of Finau, Alexander, Jason Kokrak, Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Tway, and Dustin Johnson in the list of players that have finished first or second at Memorial Park shows that strong drivers are all the rage here.

Of course, length makes such a difference at a layout with so many long holes – there’s shorter guys that will be hitting 3-wood into Par 4s this week, after all. Hitting a mid-range iron is far more preferable.

Memorial Park is so lacking in punishment off the tee that the bombers will have their day, although some class on approach in that 200+ yard range – landing as softly as possible on these fast Bermuda greens – is still welcome.

Making putts when you’re there is certainly helpful, but it’s interesting that of the 15 players in T9 or better in 2022, seven of them ranked inside the top-10 for SG: Approach and the same for GIR, so simply finding the greens efficiently is good business at Memorial Park.

As for correlating venues, there’s plenty of correlations between Memorial Park and Augusta – indeed, three of the most recent Masters champions (Scheffler, DJ, Hideki Matsuyama) have all finished second in the Houston Open, while two of the winners in Texas (Finau, Kokrak) have also fared well at Augusta.

The Genesis Invitational, won by DJ and Matsuyama, and where Finau and Kokrak have also finished runner-up, is also a worthy correlation.

We may also throw into the mix the Mexico Open (approach play in the 200-yard range is key), the St Jude (long and challenging Par 70), and the Byron Nelson (Texas, 200+ yard expertise) as well.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Texas Children’s Houston Open   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Texas Children’s Houston Open  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Sahith Theegala (Odds: 22/1, FPPG: 83.0, Salary: $10,300)

Three top-10s in his last four PGA TOUR starts confirm that Sahith Theegala is knocking on the door of that second solo win.

The fact that two of those high finishes came at the PLAYERS Championship and Arnold Palmer – two events perhaps not best attuned with his game – speaks volumes of his ability to perform well pretty much anywhere. 

Memorial Park seems like as good a place as any for his quality from long range, while putting gains on the field in his last six outings confirms that the Californian is at home on Bermuda greens as he is his more native Poa Annua.

Is that second PGA TOUR title in the offing this week?

Key Stats:

• SG: Putting – 7th
• Par 4 Scoring Average – 20th
• SG: Off-the-Tee – 25th

Top Tier Pick #2

Will Zalatoris (Odds: 20/1, FPPG: 71.7, Salary: $10,100)

It’s a top-heavy build for our lineup this week, but with good reason – and a situation we can balance out with a bargain pick below $6,000 (more on him later).

Will Zalatoris, a Californian by birth, has since set up home in Texas, so he would love nothing more than a win on home soil.

He’s certainly playing well enough to get one, too. He gained well over +1.00 on approach in top-five finishes at the correlating Genesis and Arnold Palmer Invitational, and while he missed the cut at the PLAYERS – gaining +1.30 on approach through 36 holes – that’s not an event that necessarily suits, given that it takes driver out of his hands.

There’s no such problem at Memorial Park, where Zalatoris will be a debutant this week, but we can assume that a player that has performed well at Riviera, Augusta, and TPC Southwind, the site of his sole PGA TOUR win so far, will enjoy the conditions in his adopted state.

Key Stats:

• Par 3 Scoring Average – 2nd
• SG: Approach – 6th
• Total Driving – 49th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Kurt Kitayama (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 71.1, Salary: $8,100)

It really does feel as though Kurt Kitayama is trending towards a trophy challenge right now.

Not only has he gained strokes on the field on approach in nine of his last ten measured outings, he’s gone +1.00 or more in four of them – he loves it in the 200+ yard range, too.

Most eye-catchingly, Kitayama has gained strokes on the field putting in three of his last four outings, which allied to his length off the tee really is exciting for his backers.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 200+ yards – 11th
• Bogey Avoidance – 15th
• SG: Tee-to-Green – 35th 

Mid-Tier Pick #2

 Jake Knapp (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 81.5, Salary: $8,000)

We’re still learning about Jake Knapp in his rookie year, but so far he’s proven himself to be a young player with plenty to offer in events where length and approach play quality are key.

The Mexico Open ticks that box – Knapp claimed his maiden PGA TOUR title there in February, while T3 at the Farmers Insurance Open is another that can be filed under the same category.

Knapp even did well at TPC Sawgrass on debut, relying on his flat stick admittedly, but if nothing else that proves he’s got class in all departments.

There’s even bigger things to come from Knapp, you suspect – taking down Scheffler and co here would be a great start.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 20th 
• SG: Approach – 21st
• SG: Putting – 31st

Low-Tier Pick

Luke List (Odds: 70/1, FPPG: 60.3, Salary: $7,500)

If we believe in the law of regression to the mean, soon Luke List’s approach play will return to its normal elite status – and his putting will regress to its mediocre stature.

But what if they meet in the middle? The flat stick has long been List’s achilles heel, but if he continues to perform much more solidly with that club, who knows what’s in the offing?

If nothing else, we know that List likes it at Memorial Park – he was T11 here in 2021, and don’t forget it as barely a month ago when he finished T2 at the correlating Genesis Invitational.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 200+ yards – 13th
• Par 3 Scoring Average – 25th
• SG: Approach – 39th

Sleeper Pick for the Texas Children’s Houston Open

Andrew Novak (Odds: 120/1, FPPG: 61.5, Salary: $6,900)

With big approach play gains on the field in four of his last five starts, is it any wonder that Andrew Novak is in the form of his life?

A formline reading 17-MC-9-8-8 is incredible, really, given this throwaway price, so we can roll the dice again this week – especially as Novak has class in the 200-yard range.

With form at the correlating Vidante track in Mexico, and a classy showing on Sunday at the Valspar, Novak’s gain continues to trend in the right direction.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 200+ yards – 9th
• SG: Approach – 11th
• Approach Putt Performance – 20th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Texas Children’s Houston Open

Jhonattan Vegas (Odds: 250/1, FPPG: 54.8, Salary: $5,600)

A run of uninspiring form has seen Jhonattan Vegas cast asunder into golf’s category of also-rans.

But that might be a little hasty about a Houston native who will get full value from his outstanding driving this week, as well as his improved approach play.

The Venezuelan has always been pretty ropey around the greens, but he might not be troubled in that regard at Memorial Park, which generally has a high GIR count even when its playing firm and fast.

If Vegas can find something on the greens in his hometown, he could make a mockery of this $5,600 price point. 

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 20th
• SG: Approach – 35th
• Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders – 58th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match Valspar to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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