Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Valero Texas Open

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Valero Texas Open  

Valero Texas Open Fantasy Preview

Stephan Jaeger was no doubt fearing the worst as Scottie Scheffler stood over a 5ft birdie putt on the final hole at the Houston Open.

Make it, and Scheffler would have forced a playoff – for which he would have been the red-hot favorite for.

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But despite his recent putting improvements, Scheffler watched on in agony as his putt rolled wide of the cup – ecstasy for the German’s camp as he landed his maiden PGA TOUR title.

It was a curious week for Jaeger, who actually lost strokes to the field on approach. But, ironically compared to Scheffler’s woes on the final green, he made every putt he looked at, and in the end that proved to be the difference in Houston.

Jaeger has already withdrawn from the field for this week’s event, the Valero Texas Open. And with his invite to The Masters now secured, who can blame him?

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Our Top Sleeper Report Pick was also our top dog last week as Billy Ho finished T6 with the help of a Sunday 64.

Overall, 10 of our 12 total picks made the weekend in Texas.

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2024 Valero Texas Open Field

For the field at the Texas Open, there’s two objectives: enjoy a tune-up of their game prior to next week’s Masters, or qualify for the Augusta showpiece by winning in the Lone Star State.

The likes of Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, and Hideki Matsuyama have the luxury of the former approach, as do Brian Harman, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, and Matt Fitzpatrick.

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Denny McCarthy, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Adam Schenk, and Erik van Rooyen could yet gatecrash the OWGR top-50 with a strong showing in Texas – that would secure them a place in the field at Augusta.

Meanwhile, Corey Conners will be looking for a slice of rare PGA TOUR prestige as he looks to become a three-time Texas Open champion this week. 

This Week’s Course Preview

TPC San Antonio, designed by He Who Must Not Be Named (LIV Golf chief Greg Norman), is something of a microcosm of many PGA TOUR courses these days.

If it’s windy, it can play tough. If it isn’t, there’s scored to be made. 

As if to prove the point, the winning score on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio ranged from -8 in 2014 to -20 in 2019….go figure. The switch to new green surfacing – the previous Bermuda grass is now overseeded with Poa – has perhaps also helped lower the scoring.

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There will be some readers with long memories that can recall when Kevin Na made a 16 on the ninth here back in 2011, but that is a rarity for a course that plays pretty easy when the breeze is down.

We’ve got fairways that can be described as generous in width, as well as large greens – ideal for a spot of target practice ahead of The Masters. With the rough generally kept on the short side, only 64 bunkers and just three water hazards, there’s very little to vex the players ahead of their Augusta jaunt.

The only defenses are the wind and the sheer length of the Oaks Course – it’s 7,438 yards for its Par 72, although driver will be used more this week than it has been lately on the PGA TOUR.

Another factor, some stark elevation changes, will bring to mind Augusta National, but that’s pretty much where the similarities end – aside from the need to be pretty sharp in the 200+ yard approach range.

Breaking par on the four Par 5s is vital, because the Par 4s are far from gimmies – in fact, eight of the ten Par 4s averaged over par in 2023. The players will need to mind their work on these holes, and the gargantuan 241-yard Par 3 thirteenth, and essentially win the tournament on Par 5s.

For context, Corey Conners played the Par 5s in -10 in 2023, winning the event with a final score of -15.

Weather Forecast for San Antonio, TX

Although the weather can best be described as changeable in Texas at this time of year, the going appears to be good this week as per the early forecast.

Wednesday is set fair, and that rolls into the first day of the tournament on Thursday – sunny spells and temperatures of 73 degrees. 

The rest of the tournament should be played out in a mix of sun and cloud, with temperatures rising to 78 degrees.

As for the all-important wind, whisper it but the forecast isn’t too bad – certainly relative to what it can blow like in San Antonio. Single digit speeds, climbing to a maximum of 11mph, won’t hamper the action too much.

SAN ANTONIO WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Valero Texas Open

Corey Conners staked his claim for the crown of King of the Lone Star State here 12 months, clinching his second Texas Open title in the space of five years.

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The Canadian opened up with a round of 64, which would prove to be the best score posted all week.

A Friday 72 looked like it might have derailed Conners’ push for ascension, with Patrick Rodgers opening up a three-shot lead at the halfway stage.

Conditions toughened on Saturday, meaning that at the 54-hole stage just five players were within four shots of the lead – Rodgers, Conners, Matt Kuchar, Chris Kirk, and Sam Stevens.

Rodgers, it has to be said, fluffed his lines, posting four bogeys on the front nine on Sunday to all but end his hopes. Kirk also fell by the wayside, although a 66 from Stevens kept him interested.

But it was 68 from Conners, a nerveless, bogey-less round featuring four birdies, that showed his class and got him over the line, adding to his Texas Open win of 2019.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Valero Texas Open

We have one week to build our bankrolls ahead of The Masters, so which contests are going to afford us the maximum agency to achieve exactly that this week?

• GOLF TOUR $250K Drive the Green: There’s some sizable cash prizes available in this game – not least the $50k winners’ share. For $5 an entry, there’s a chance to accumulate ahead of next week’s Augusta foray.

• GOLF TOUR $700K Pitch & Putt: If you’ve got a slightly larger warchest to play with, this $20 entry contest could prove incredibly rewarding – 20% of the field will bank a profit, with a mammoth $200k going to the winner.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

A week shy of The Masters, you wonder how dialled in those that have already qualified for the event will be – the Texas Open is perhaps more of a tune up than an opportunity to grind out a win.

That said, the focus should be on the classier sorts who will hit their drives long and straight, before excelling in two general yardage ranges – inside 100 yards and 200+. Both will be vital to making birdie on the Par 5s, which as we’ve mentioned is crucial on the Oaks Course.

Much of the heavy lifting is done with ball-striking at the layout. Conners ranked eighth for Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and first for SG: Approach, finding a whopping 77.8% of GIR. The fact that he has been able to win twice here – the latter victory while ranking 41st for SG: Putting, plus the presence of JJ Spaun on the winners’ trophy, confirms that putting is only a small part of the puzzle at TPC San Antonio.

We can use the Houston Open as something of a reference point, but our favorite correlations are for Detroit GC (home of the Rocket Mortgage Classic), which features the same yardage buckets, and even Augusta itself – hitting long, raking approaches, with elevation changes thrown in for good measure, is the order of the day there.

A glance at leaderboards here and at the American Express also confirm something of a correlation – Matt Kuchar, Charley Hoffman, Andrew Landry, Brendan Steele, and Patrick Reed amongst those to have either won or finished second in both tournaments in the past decade alone.

Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valero Texas Open   

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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