Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Valspar Championship

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Valspar Championship  

Valspar Championship Fantasy Preview

It didn’t take detective work of a Netflix true crime documentary level to know that once Scottie Scheffler found his mojo on the greens again, the world of golf was on notice.

His victory at the PLAYERS Championship last week was arguably the least surprising of the year, although the circumstances of it – shooting a final round of 64 while carrying a neck injury – warrant plenty of praise.

Some will feel aggrieved that they weren’t able to convert victory at TPC Sawgrass. Xander Schauffele squandered a strong position for what feels like the umpteenth time during his career, Brian Harman was there or thereabouts, and Wyndham Clark, well, he showed plenty of fortitude to make birdie at seventeen on Sunday before watching his putt at 18 suffer an agonizing lip-out. 

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After a year of chaos so far, with a stack of unpredictable TOUR winners, Scheffler winning one of the biggest events in world golf at least feels like some sort of normality has been resumed.

The Florida Swing reaches its conclusion this week with the Valspar Championship. Whose got the gas left in the tank after a manic three weeks to pick up the win?

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Not a bad week for our picks with the 1-2 punch of Scottie and Harman showing up strong!  

Overall, 9 of our 12 picks made the cut at TPC Sawgrass with four total top ten finishers including Scottie (1), Harman (T2), Theegala (9th), and Si Woo Kim (T6).

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2024 Valspar Championship Field

It feels like the part of the calendar when the players start to think about their Masters tune-ups….or even qualifying for the first major of the year at all.

Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, and Justin Thomas have work to do on their respective games, hence their inclusion in the field this week, while Schauffele and Harman will be looking to parlay their PLAYERS form into another sustained run at a trophy.

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Reigning Valspar champion Taylor Moore will look to defend his title – he’s joined in the field by other former winners of this event like Sam Burns, Adam Hadwin, and European Ryder Cup team captain Luke Donald.

Elsewhere, the likes of Keegan Bradley, Cameron Young, Sungjae Im, and Min-Woo Lee might be thinking this is an ideal time to put a trophy on their mantelpiece. 

This Week’s Course Preview

The Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook club might be described as the ‘classic Americana’ of the PGA TOUR.

This is tree-heavy parklands golf in all its glory – a sweeping, 7,340 yard Par 71 with doglegging fairways, tight fairways and, normally, rugged rough left long.

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With smaller-than-average overseeded Bermuda greens, this is a challenging way to bring the Florida Swing to an end – although, of course, we’ve seen other Florida courses like Bay Hill and Sawgrass succumb to low scores after a wetter-than-normal winter, so who knows what will unfold.

A word of a warning about Copperhead’s routing – there’s four Par 5s and five Par 3s to contend with, with the former being the easiest quartet on the course and the latter amongst the most difficult. Indeed, the four Par 3s all measure in excess of 200 yards.

Beware the Snake Pit! The last three holes have been given such a name on account of their ability to gobble up balls like ostrich eggs. Sixteen is a challenging Par 4 with water right and deep tree coverage left, while 17 is a Par 3 measuring a sizable 215 yards and blessed with a tiny green.

The final hole is an uphill Par 4, with a drive into a well-guarded fairway followed by an approach into a viciously-sloping green.

Weather Forecast for Palm Harbor, FL

Good news for golf fans and residents of Florida! Finally, it appears as if a sustained period of good weather is heading your way.

A couple of days of (hopefully) dry weather will lead into a glorious Thursday, where sunny spells will greet the players alongside temperatures of 80 degrees.

There’s the potential for some wild and windy weather on Friday, with plenty of rain in the early forecast and a breeze of up to 20mph.

The weekend should return to sunnier climes, with wind speeds down to around 13mph and temperatures reaching 75 degrees.

PALM HARBOR WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Valspar Championship

There was an unlikely band of combatants at the 54-hole stage here 12 months ago, with Jordan Spieth and Tommy Fleetwood joined by Adam Schenk, Taylor Moore, Cody Gribble and the previously out-of-form Webb Simpson within two shots of the lead.

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It was Moore to would hang the toughest of them all, grinding out a superb bogey-free back nine to land his maiden PGA TOUR title in the most challenging of circumstances.

In fairness, some of his closest rivals afforded him a hand. Schenk unluckily found himself behind a tree on the 72nd hole to lose his shot at the trophy, while Spieth’s frenetic end saw him drive into the water and bogey 16 and 18.

Moore simply scythed through the Snake Pit with no alarms – an excellent way to win your first PGA Tour silverware.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Valspar Championship

The Valspar is quite a tough tournament to gauge, so it’s likely that you’ll need a few lineup variations to get it right in such unpredictable conditions. As such, here’s a couple of multi entry contests to whet your appetite.

• GOLF TOUR $50k Resurgence: One of the lowest rake contests of the week is this $10 entry affair, which promises $10k to the champion with just 5,882 teams in the mix.

• PGA $300k Drive the Green: It’s the $5 standard these days – a price point that allows for a multi-lineup build. And even for your budget entry fee, there’s still $50k going to the winner.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

It’s likely to be a second shot shootout this week, although there tends to be more than one way to skin the cat at Innisbrook.

Taylor Moore ranked second for Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, fifth for SG: Approach, and ninth for SG: Putting, which by all accounts is a pretty good way to get the job done.

Approach play, particularly from distances of 175 yards and further, is vital at this stretch, not just for scoring on the Par 5s but also for limiting damage on the Par 3s. With such long distances and small greens, it goes without saying that scrambling is a key stat too.

It doesn’t seem to matter too much what you do off the tee, but strong second and third shots are non-negotiable at a venue where the winning score has ranged from -8 to -17 in the past five years alone.

Lovers of correlating courses need look no further than Augusta National for help – Paul Casey, Tiger Woods, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, Jordan Spieth, Charl Schwartzel, John Senden, and Sean O’Hair are just some of those to have thrived at both.

Torrey Pines, with its long approaches into small greens, is another worthy of a look, while a link between Innisbrook and Colonial – although not easy to fathom – has thrown up eight players that have finished first or second at both venues in less than a decade.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Valspar Championship   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Valspar Championship  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Justin Thomas (Odds: 12/1, FPPG: 81.7, Salary: $10,400)

The Florida Swing can be tough on the mind and body for those that play in it – not for Justin Thomas, who has only completed six rounds of the 12 that could be played so far.

Skipping the Cognizant Classic and missing the cut at The PLAYERS has given JT a lighter schedule than he might otherwise have had, with T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational his only complete run-out in FL.

But we’re not too concerned – in fact, his freshness could be an advantage at the culmination of a tough run of golf. JT didn’t qualify for the weekend at Sawgrass despite gaining +2.41 strokes on the field on approach through the first 36 holes.

His putter went ice cold, but tracking his last ten outings sees Thomas gain strokes on the field with his flat stick in 6/10, so we can have relative confidence that he will bounce back this week – particularly at a track where his formline reads 10-3-13-MC-18-10.

Key Stats:

• Rough Proximity – 4th
• SG: Approach – 6th
• Scoring Average – 10th

Top Tier Pick #2

Nick Taylor (Odds: 35/1, FPPG: 80.4, Salary: $9,100)

There’s so many holes that can be picked in those at the head of the field this week that it’s actually the middle tranche of players that is most of interest.

Nick Taylor has won twice on the PGA TOUR since June, and finished T10 here a year ago – his best effort on the Copperhead Course, and an outing that suggests he’s finally gotten to grips with this layout.

The Canadian has such a positive skillset for this week’s test. His approach play has been excellent in recent months, his chipping and scrambling is typically reliable, and he has gained strokes on the field putting in four of his last five outings – including both on the Bermuda-led Florida Swing.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 9th
• SG: Putting – 11th
• Scrambling – 19th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Doug Ghim (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 73.3, Salary: $8,400)

It just keeps on getting better for Doug Ghim, who has now recorded five consecutive top-20 finishes on the PGA TOUR.

He’s gained strokes on the field from tee to green in each of them, and putting in 4/5, so there’s no reason to expect this hot streak to come to an end this week – particularly as the Copperhead Course is not all that different, stylistically, to what’s come before on the Florida Swing.

Quality in the 175-200 yard range with decent turns at the Farmers and Charles Schwab Challenge, expect Ghim to parlay another excellent effort at Innisbrook this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 13th
• Scrambling – 15th
• SG: Putting – 32nd

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Sepp Straka (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 48.4, Salary: $7,900)

After a pretty fallow start to 2024, it was back to normal service for Sepp Straka at Sawgrass.

Gaining +2.11 on the field from tee to green, with positive numbers in each department, the Austrian posted a T16 finish with all four rounds played under par.

At his best, Straka is an iron and wedge machine – the department that guided him to victory at the John Deere Classic and second place at the British Open next time out in the summer. Anything resembling that this week will surely get him close.

With form to his name at Augusta and Torrey Pines, we have to assume that Straka will enjoy life at Innisbrook – this will be just his second visit.

Key Stats:

• Approaches from 200-225 yards – 22nd
• Par 3 Scoring Average – 44th
• Greens in Regulation – 46th

Low-Tier Pick

Sam Ryder (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 52.4, Salary: $7,300)

To score 27 birdies at TPC Sawgrass in 72 holes, beating the rest of a high-quality field in that regard, really is a feather in the cap of Sam Ryder.

It doesn’t necessarily mean such par-breaking will follow him to Innisbrook, although it’s worth noting that Ryder was T19 here a year ago and has strong showings at the correlating Torrey Pines to call upon.

With his ball-striking improving since the Cognizant Classic, where he finished T21, and with an ability to go berserk on the greens, Ryder is a risk-reward play with plenty of upside this week.

Key Stats:

• Rough Proximity – 11th
• SG: Approach – 37th
• SG: Putting – 51st

Sleeper Pick for the Valspar Championship

Adam Schenk (Odds: 90/1, FPPG: 61.3, Salary: $7,100)

Cast your mind back and you might just recall Adam Schenk getting close to winning the Valspar Championship.

An unfortunate lie behind a tree in the home straight cost him a shot – a shot that might otherwise forced a playoff with Taylor Moore. It was another fine effort from Schenk on the Copperhead Course, which he has taken to and which looks likely to be a possible destination for a maiden PGA TOUR win.

There wasn’t much to get excited about in Schenk’s game until he teed it up at Sawgrass – he gained strokes on the field in every department on his way to T19, and that should spirit him off to Innisbrook with renewed confidence.

Key Stats:

• Total Driving – 20th
• Par 5 Scoring Average – 32nd
• SG: Around-the-Green – 32nd

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Valspar Championship

Matthew NeSmith (Odds: 175/1, FPPG: 51.3, Salary: $6,500)

A player that has built his low-key career on finding fairways and greens, it comes as no surprise to learn that Innisbrook has been good to Matthew NeSmith in the past.

Finishes of T3 and T21 in his two trips are indicative of that, with a round of 61 in 2022 confirming that this is a course he can take down.

Can he do it over four rounds? That has been the question that ahs dogged NeSmith’s career, but the signs at Sawgrass were promising. T26, with strokes gained in every department including +1.65 on the field ball striking, is eye-catching.

Key Stats:

• Greens in Regulation – 57th
• Approaches from 175-200 yards – 68th
• Scrambling from Inside 10 yards – 77th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match Valspar to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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