Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions – 2024 Zurich Classic

Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions for the 2024 Zurich Classic  

Zurich Classic Fantasy Preview

As Nelly Korda became the first female player since the dawn of the new Millenium to win five LPGA Tour events in a row, Scottie Scheffler set about carving out some records of his own.

If he hadn’t idled his way through the three holes he needed to complete on Monday morning – caused, yet again, by the PGA’s inability to look at a weather forecast and see thunderstorms incoming late afternoon on Sunday, Scheffler would have won the RBC Heritage by four or more shots; becoming only the second player, after Tiger Woods, to win three or more events in a season by that margin.

And it’s only April.

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He’s now won four of his last five starts – only Tiger, Vijay Singh and Phil Mickelson have ever compiled multiple 4+ win campaigns, and he’s also the first player to win a major, and then a non-major the following week, since Tiger in 2006.

And he’s only 27 years old.

Where will it all end? If he continues to break records at this pace, Scottie Scheffler will be considered an all-time great while still playing – the ultimate accolade for a sportsman.

The good news for the rest of the PGA TOUR is that Scheffler can’t win the Zurich Classic of New Orleans this week – simply because he isn’t playing in the unique pairs event in Louisiana.

Last Event’s Fantasy Results

Last week our top choice was Xander, who carded a 72 on Sunday and slipped down to T18. 

Overall we had three Top-12 finishers including Sepp Straka, Chris Kirk, and Brian Harman.

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2024 Zurich Classic Field

Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, the 2022 champions, will be looking to double-up, and head into the event as favorites as per the sportsbooks.

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Rory McIlroy will make his Zurich Classic debut, teaming up with his old friend Shane Lowry, while Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala is another eye-catching combination.

Billy Horschel, who won the Corales Puntacana on Sunday, has a fine record in this event – in 2024, he teams up with Tyson Alexander, the son of his former Florida State coach, Buddy.

There’s siblings too – the Hojgaards, Fitzpatricks, and Coodys – and defending champions in Nick Hardy and Davis Riley.

This Week’s Course Preview

We don’t get strokes gained data from the Zurich Classic, so it’s hard to take a real deep dive into what to expect from TPC Louisiana.

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We do know that it’s a Pete Dye layout, which has been updated several times in recent years, and we know that it’s a fairly regulation 7,425 yards for its Par 72.

There’s stacks of bunkers – more than 100, by some estimates – but, surprisingly for a course built on wetland, water hazards are only in play on eight holes.

Otherwise, we’re getting generous fairways – not classic Dye, by any means – and rough that’s cut nice and low, which helps to explain why Burns and Riley were able to win with an eye-popping score of -30 a year ago.

The greens are relatively small, with their Bermuda/Poa overseeding ensuring that they run at a pure and smooth 12 on the stimpmeter.

Weather Forecast for Avondale, LA

We might get a golf tournament without a break for rain and thunderstorms this week, but the players won’t be able to avoid the strong winds scheduled in Avondale.

The early forecasts are suggesting a blanket of sunny spells and cloud this week, with temperatures in the region of 82-84 degrees.

But about that breeze. The early predictions suggest it could reach 18mph for the weekend, up from 12mph on Thursday, and that could prove even stronger at localized level.

AVONDALE WEATHER

Last Year’s Results from the Zurich Classic

Nick Hardy and Davis Riley smashed tournament records on their way to maiden PGA TOUR titles here 12 months ago.

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Better ball scoring tends to be low in this event historically – the duo shot rounds of 63 and 64 in that regard a year ago, but they also did well in the alternate shot elements, posting excellent scores of 65 and 66 to win by two from the Canadian pairing of Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin.

There were some extraordinary better ball rounds throughout the tournament, with Wyndham Clark and Beau Hossler, plus Sean O’Hair and Brandom Matthews, carding 61.

But Riley and Hardy were the most consistent duo across the two formats, and they took their chances to win the first PGA TOUR titles of their career.

Where to Play Fantasy Golf for this Week’s Zurich Classic

You can probably guess from the format, and the lack of strokes gained data, that this isn’t the easiest puzzle to solve from a DFS perspective.

But that can be an opportunity too, if our gut instinct in our draft is proven correct, so we can enter the contests below with curious optimism.

• PGA $30k Birdie: If you want to keep a tight leash on your investment this week, this $3 contest is the best way to go. It’s multi-entry, so you can draft a handful of lineups, and still benefit from the lure of a $3k top prize.

• GOLF TOUR $15k Caddie: If you are wanting to push the boat out with a single entry contest this week, here’s a $5 entry game that promises a $1.5k top prize, and a chance to accumulate other payouts for use in more appetizing conditions.

This Week’s Fantasy Notes

Without strokes gained data, we’re chasing our tails somewhat when it comes to creating the ideal team profile likely to win the Zurich Classic – the Riley and Hardy pairing were underdogs to say the least.

But look at the pairings that have won, or finished second, prior to 2023: Cantlay and Schauffele defeating Sam Burns and Billy Horschel, while Cameron Smith and Marc Leishman fended off Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel.

So the cream has, historically, risen to the top even in this pairs event, so drafting thoroughbred duos is definitely the way to go.

Consider the format too. Rounds one and three are the better ball format, in which the pair’s best score goes on to their card – clearly, in-form players are the best option in that regard, while the alternate shot component (rounds two and four) favors those with contrasting skillsets….although drafting pairs made up of two good drivers of the golf ball is certainly an edge.

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Our Top 5 (and Top 2 Sleeper) Fantasy Picks and Odds to Win the Zurich Classic   

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Top 5 Picks/Odds to Win the Zurich Classic  

Top Tier Pick # 1

Rory McIlroy (Odds: 8/1, FPPG: 87.0, Salary: $10,700) (with Shane Lowry)

Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry have been deprived of the chance to team up in the Ryder Cup in recent years, so these two good friends will be relishing the chance to buddy up in Louisiana.

One of the reasons that they appeal so much this week is just how well Lowry is striking the ball – he’s consistently featured on our ball-striking tracker, dating back to the Florida Swing, where he banked top-fives in the Cognizant Classic and Arnold Palmer Invitational.

But he isn’t making putts, which is why the alternate shot format could work out handsomely – McIlroy has gained strokes on the field putting in four of his last five starts.

Rory has been striking the ball beautifully as well, as you would expect, and even though you can imagine he and Lowry having a good few laughs out on the course, if they get close to the top of the leaderboard they will be fully intent on taking care of business.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 4th
• Proximity to Hole – 12th
• Birdie Average – 21st

Top Tier Pick #2

Tom Hoge (Odds: 25/1, FPPG: 81.0, Salary: $9,400) (with Maverick McNealy)

Here we have statistically one of the best approach players on the PGA TOUR partnering one of its best putters. It should be a marriage made in heaven.

Tom Hoge won the QBE Shootout with Sahith Theegala in 2022, a player able to maximize Hoge’s iron and wedge play brilliance, while negating the former’s weakness off the tee.

Maverick McNealy, Hoge’s partner this week, has gained strokes off the tee on the field in each of his last eight PGA TOUR starts, which is a skillset that could unlock doors for Hoge in the alternate shot format.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but this Hoge-McNealy pairing looks dangerous in this format.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 2nd
• Birdie Average – 11th
• SG: Putting – 26th

Mid-Tier Pick #1

Andrew Novak (Odds: 55/1, FPPG: 60.8, Salary: $8,100) (with Davis Thompson)

When Hardy and Riley won here 12 months ago, it was two talented individuals who found a new level when paired together.

And maybe that’s what Davis Thompson and Andrew Novak need in order to elevate their games to the next level. Thompson is the big hitter whose approach play has improved immeasurably in recent months, while Novak has been ultra-consistent: three top-10s and a T17 in seven starts since the start of February.

It’s a pairing that should, in theory, produce dividends in the alternate shot format, and if they play well enough in the better ball part then they could be dangerous this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 14th
• SG: Around-the-Green – 25th
• Scoring Average – 46th

Mid-Tier Pick #2

Kevin Yu (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 54.3, Salary: $7,800) (with C.T. Pan) 

The ball-striking prowess of Kevin Yu is such that he could become a multiple-time champion on the PGA TOUR.

But like many of his kind, there’s a weakness on and around the greens – the sort of thing that improves through a) aggressive coaching and practice, or b) playing in a pairs format in which 50% of the event is alternate shot.

So step forward C.T. Pan, who will be tasked with making some putts on behalf of his playing partner. He was T3 at the Mexico Open in February, so there’s enough form in the tank for him to be a useful foil for Yu this week.

Key Stats:

• SG: Off-the-Tee – 3rd
• Greens in Regulation – 5th
• Scoring Average – 46th

Low-Tier Pick

Davis Riley (Odds: 60/1, FPPG: 46.5, Salary: $7,500) (with Nick Hardy) 

It was a huge shock when Hardy and Riley won this event 12 months ago, so therefore it will be less of a surprise if they follow up this week – at odds that are still juicy enough to be of interest.

It’s a particularly interesting dynamic in the sense that both have put in a strong performance lately. Hardy finished T25 at the Texas Open, but his ball-striking – he gained +1.69 on the field in this department – arguably deserved more.

Riley, meanwhile, produced a performance of similarly excellent ball-striking at the Houston Open, where missed putts prevented him from improving upon a T14 finish. 

This pairing knows how to win this tournament, and they have form in their locker into the bargain.

Key Stats:

• Birdie Average – 48th
• Driving Distance – 59th
• Approaches from Inside 100 Yards – 60th

Sleeper Pick for the Zurich Classic

Matti Schmid (Odds: 80/1, FPPG: 60.1, Salary: $7,200) (with Alex Smalley)

This duo finished T6 and T11 at the Corales Puntacana last week, so they head to Louisiana with plenty of confidence.

Alex Smalley is a quality ball-striker whose game seems to have fallen off a cliff lately, although better signs in the Dominican Republic suggest a step in the right direction.

Matt Schmid, meanwhile, has been playing some strong golf lately with four finishes of T21 or better in his last six PGA TOUR starts. He is much better on the greens than Smalley, so as a hybrid force in the alternate shot format they could be dangerous.

Key Stats:

• Driving Distance – 43rd
• Proximity to Hole – 57th
• Birdie or Better Percentage – 58th

Alternative Sleeper Pick for the Zurich Classic

Parker Coody (Odds: 125/1, FPPG: 61.7, Salary: $6,600) (with Pierceson Coody)

Although these two brothers are twins, they’re actually pretty unique as golfers.

Parker is, perhaps, the classier operator of the two, with easy length and quality on approach through the bag. But Pierceson has shown himself to be an outstanding putter, so – as you’re probably bored of us writing by now – lends itself perfectly to success in the alternate shot format.

Both recorded top-20 finishes at the Corales Puntacana, so they head to TPC Louisiana in good spirits.

Key Stats:

• SG: Approach – 37th
• Driving Distance – 49th
• Scrambling – 56th

This Week’s Sample Fantasy Lineup

Note: Sample lineups provided as examples only.  Be sure to mix-and-match to best fit individual contests.

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Fantasy Golf Predictions – This Season 

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